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Compulsory Voting Participation, Partisanship and the Electoral Reform Process Rob Hoffman Thesis submitted in total fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Swinburne Institute for Social Research Faculty of Health, Arts and Design Swinburne University of Technology 2015 Abstract This thesis is about the maximisation of electoral participation, and the ways in which the processes of institutional development impact upon this pursuit. It considers the interaction between electoral participation, electoral policy and the broader institutional context within which both are embedded. The core contention of this thesis is that development of electoral policy can only be explained with recourse to the influence and constraint exerted by the broader institutional structure, notably but not exclusively the partisan self-interest of those in control of the reform process. Further, this thesis argues that Australian electoral policy and the institutions of reform that produce it are failing to keep pace with the demands of contemporary electoral behaviour. The thesis approaches these issues through a focus on three key facets of formal electoral participation – enrolment, turnout and formality. Through the analysis of contemporary trends in participation across these three facets, the thesis offers a broad illustration of the challenges facing Australian electoral democracy and the means by which they might best be addressed. Further, by examining the institutional structure within which participation occurs, with a particular focus on key policies and the processes that produced them, this thesis explains how the present situation has come to pass. In providing a detailed account of the institutional processes through which Australia’s electoral systems have developed, the thesis grants illumination to those with an interest in continuing to shape them into the future. While Australia was once a world leader in democratic innovation, its electoral institutions have long since ossified, and now primarily reflect the interests of those who control their development and reform. Counter-productive policies are introduced and potential solutions resisted in pursuit of electoral gain. Yet those who drive reform do not act unconstrained. This thesis details the ways in which these processes may be disrupted by a vigilant public, willing to harness the authority of the Constitution, the judiciary and electoral administrators in the name of protecting and advancing democracy. i Acknowledgements A thesis is a strange beast, written alone yet with the indirect input of many. I am indebted to a wide range of people who have assisted me in various ways throughout my candidature. To my supervisor Professor Brian Costar, for his advice, knowledge, bookshelf, and, when I packed up mid-candidature to go see the world, his patience. To all involved at the Swinburne Institute for Social Research, particularly my fellow candidates, and to those in the broader University with whom I variously worked, studied and procrastinated, for making this a genuinely enjoyable way to spend half a decade. To everyone who has been on the receiving end of an unsolicited email about an obscure point of electoral law or practice, and has taken the time to help. To the many students I’ve taught over the past few years, who have provided a regular reminder that my work just might be of interest to more than a select few. And, finally, to my partner Lauren, who has humoured me for five long years. Thank you. ii Statement of Originality This thesis is my own work and contains no material that has been submitted or accepted for any other degree, diploma or qualification in any university or equivalent institution. It contains no material prepared or previously published by any other person, except where due acknowledgement has been made. Where material contained in the thesis is based on joint research or publications, the appropriate disclosures have been made. Rob Hoffman iii A Note on Terminology Australia employs a number of electoral terms that differ from those used in other contexts. This thesis focuses on the Australian context, and makes extensive use of primary sources that employ Australian terms, and as such follows suit. They are explained in the text as they are introduced, but it is worth briefly considering them here. Electoral enrolment is what is known elsewhere as voter registration. Preferential voting carries a double meaning, referring both to all systems of preferential voting, and specifically to the local interpretation of the Alternative Vote, involving single- member-electorates and full, compulsory preferential voting. When contrasted with competing interpretations, this is more specifically termed compulsory preferential voting, with the traditional conception of AV being deemed optional preferential voting, and hybrid systems requiring a minimum number of preferences referred to as partial preferential voting. Further, preferential voting brings its own terminology: the first-preference vote is the primary vote; the two-candidate-preferred vote is the final result following the elimination of all but two candidates within an electoral district; and the two-party-preferred vote is the result following the notional distribution of all votes to the two most successful parties or coalitions on a national or state-wide level. Finally, formality (and its corollary, informality) refers to the requirements a completed ballot paper must adhere to in order to be admitted to the count. Common Abbreviations 2CP Two-candidate-preferred vote 2PP Two-party-preferred vote AEC Australian Electoral Commission CPV Compulsory, full preferential voting JSCEM Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters JSCER Joint Select Committee on Electoral Reform OPV Optional preferential voting PPV Partial preferential voting PR Proportional Representation STV-PR Single Transferrable Vote Proportional Representation iv Tables and Figures Unless otherwise noted, all tables and figures are the author’s own work. Electoral results are drawn from the various Commonwealth, State and Territory Electoral Commission websites1 and the University of Western Australia’s invaluable Australian Politics and Elections Database.2 Census data are drawn from the Australian Bureau of Statistics website.3 Opinion polling data are drawn from the Australian Election Study and Australian Candidate Study,4 and from Newspoll.5 List of Tables 4.1 Adoption of compulsory voting and parliamentary support 65 6.1 Support for Compulsion by Voting Intention 144 6.2 State Electoral Districts, 2005-2007 148 6.3 Variable definition 149 List of Figures 2.1 Range of feasible party behaviour 36 2.2 Types of electoral reform 39 3.1 Turnout and Labor vote share across State Assembly Elections (1910-1950) 66 4.1 Estimated enrolment rate, 1986-2009 79 4.2 Estimated enrolment rate, 2007-2014 80 4.3 Estimated enrolment rate by age, 2005 81 4.4 Coalition first preference vote, 1998-2013 82 4.5 ALP 2PP increase as a function of 18-24 year-old enrolment, 2010 83 6.1 Candidates’ support for compulsory voting, 1993-2004 143 6.2 Public support for compulsory voting, 1943-2004 143 1 http://www.aec.gov.au; http://www.elections.act.gov.au; http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au; http://www.ntec.nt.gov.au; http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au; http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au; http://www.vec.vic.gov.au; http://www.elections.wa.gov.au. 2 http://elections.uwa.edu.au. 3 http://www.abs.gov.au. 4 http://aes.anu.edu.au. 5 http://www.newspoll.com.au. v 6.3 Model performance 150 6.4 Variable importance 150 6.5 Partial dependence 153 7.1 Sample Senate ballot paper 159 7.2 Total, accidental and intentional Informality, 2001-2010 165 7.3 Accidental informality against English Proficiency, 2010 166 7.4 Accidental informality against candidate count, 2010 167 7.5 Change in informality against change in nominations, 2010-2013 167 7.6 Informal vote, House of Representatives and Senate, 1972-2013 168 7.7 ALP first preference vote against total, accidental and intentional 171 informality, 2010 7.8 Change in Labor two-party-preferred vote and seat count by 172 percentage of Labor support in accidental informal vote 7.9 Primary vote as a percentage of two-party-preferred vote, 1946-2013 174 7.10 Three-cornered contests at Federal Elections, 1984-2013 174 7.11 Change in Labor two-party-preferred vote and seat count by rate 182 of preference exhaustion 7.12 Informality at Australian Capital Territory Elections, 1998-2012 189 vi Table of Contents Introduction 1 Chapter 1 The Problem of Participation 12 Chapter 2 Institutional Development 28 Chapter 3 Historical Context 47 Chapter 4 Electoral Enrolment 72 Chapter 5 Franchise Restriction and the Implied Right to Vote 97 Chapter 6 Compulsory Voting 128 Chapter 7 Preferences and Formality 156 Conclusion 192 References 196 vii Introduction This thesis is about the maximisation of electoral participation, and the ways in which the processes of institutional development impact upon this pursuit. It considers the interaction between electoral participation, electoral policy and the broader institutional context within which both are embedded. The core contention of this thesis is that development of electoral policy can only be explained with recourse to the influence and constraint exerted by the broader institutional structure, notably but not exclusively the partisan self-interest of those in control of the reform process. Further, this thesis argues that Australian electoral policy and the institutions of reform that produce it are failing to keep pace with the demands of contemporary electoral behaviour. The purpose of this thesis is broad. Through an analysis of contemporary trends in electoral participation, it offers an examination of the challenges facing Australian electoral democracy, and the avenues by which they might be addressed. Further, the thesis explains how this situation has come about. Through an analysis of the institutional structure and its operation this thesis illustrates the institutional processes through which Australia’s electoral systems have been developed, granting illumination to those with an interest in continuing to shape them into the future.
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