DOCSLIB.ORG

Does Population Decline Lead to a "Populist Voting Mark‐Up"? a Case Study of the Netherlands

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Does Population Decline Lead to a Received: 7 February 2020 Revised: 2 October 2020 Accepted: 11 October 2020 DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12361 ORIGINAL ARTICLE Does population decline lead to a "populist voting mark-up"? A case study of the Netherlands Eveline S. van Leeuwen | Solmaria Halleck Vega | Vera Hogenboom Urban Economics Group, Wageningen University & Research, the Netherlands Correspondence Eveline van Leeuwen, Wageningen University Abstract & Research - Urban Economics Group, The main thesis of this paper is that people in areas of Hollandseweg 1, Wageningen 6700 HB, the (expected) population decline vote more populist to express Netherlands. Email: [email protected] their discontent about the current and future state of their place of residence. In many ways a “populist voting mark- up” could be expected, as declining areas often are associ- ated with being forgotten, fomenting societal discontent and mistrust in established political parties ultimately expected to lead to more populist votes. Using the out- comes of the Dutch national elections in 2012 and 2017, we link shares of populist votes for the PVV (Party for Free- dom) and SP (Socialist Party) to indicators of population decline, as well as other demographic (“compositional effects”), local and regional characteristics (“contextual effects”) to appraise what causes higher rates of votes for populist parties in regions of decline. We do not find a “pop- ulist voting mark-up” for declining regions when controlling for contextual effects. However, we do find that both the compositional and the contextual circumstances in areas of population decline are in such a way that they provoke dis- content expressed in voting. We also conclude that it is very important to distinguish between different parties when This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2020 The Authors. Regional Science Policy & Practice published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Regional Science Associa- tion International Reg Sci Policy Pract. 2020;1–23. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/rsp3 1 2 van LEEUWEN ET AL. their party programs are as contrasting as in the case of the PVV and the SP. Their different focus on immigration (PVV) and jobs (SP) is clearly visible in the results. KEYWORDS broad welfare, population decline, populist voting, the Netherlands JEL CLASSIFICATION D72; J11; R12; I3 1 | INTRODUCTION Within the current Regional Science literature, there is growing interest in changing spatial voting patterns, in partic- ular the geography of recent surges in populism (e.g., Becker, Fetzer, & Novy, 2017; Dijkstra, Poelman, & Rodríguez- Pose, 2020; Gordon, 2018; Los, McCann, Springford, & Thissen, 2017; McCann, 2018, 2020; Rodríguez-Pose, 2018). These patterns are so interesting because they provide indirect information about the perception of welfare, happi- ness or discontent. The information is indirect because casting a vote is influenced by a myriad of factors, such as: (i) party programme; (ii) characteristics of a candidate; (iii) regional socio-economic circumstances; and (iv) strategic consider- ations related to other parties or the government in general. In addition, voting does not provide information about actual levels of welfare, but of the perception of welfare. It might as much be influenced by objective factors (e.g., income or (un)employment levels), as by more subjective factors (e.g., relative income compared to other regions such as to the capital city), resulting in a feeling of inequality and “being left behind” (Dijkstra, Poelman, & Rodríguez- Pose, 2020; Garretsen, Stoker, Soudis, Martin, & Rentfrow, 2018; Gordon, 2018; Rodríguez-Pose, 2018). In this paper, we are particularly interested in regions that face population decline. Population decline can have a negative effect on the stability of the economy and society, especially when at the regional level a feeling of inequality arises and people in declining areas feel left behind by the national government (Ubarevicˇienė, Van Ham, & Burneika, 2016). This feeling can be fed by higher unemployment levels, a decreasing supply of facilities and prop- erties that are difficult to sell. In some cases, people are “locked in” due to the inability to sell their property and move somewhere else. The inability of local governments to address livability and the (perceived) disinterest of the national government often results in lower levels of government trust and a lack of confidence in politicians (Obbink, 2016). This “societal discontent” has been linked to rising Euroscepticism, with studies on different but related focuses, namely on anti-EU voting or on determinants shaping citizens’ attitudes towards the EU (cf. Dabrowski, Stead, & Mashhoodi, 2019; Dijkstra, Poelman, & Rodríguez-Pose, 2020). Here, effects of demo- graphic developments such as ageing population and low population density is intricate and results have been mixed, meriting further attention. Overall, the Dutch population is growing. Nevertheless, one in five municipalities faces population decline (Van Weezel, 2017). Although the decline should be labeled as “mild” compared to most EU regions, according to the Dutch Statistics, in these declining areas only around 26% of the inhabitants trust the national politics, whereas this is 39% in areas of growth. These lower levels of trust can lead to more voters for populist parties as a way of protesting against the current system and its politicians. According to Vossen (2012, p. 32), inhabitants of shrinking regions “feel that the current establishment fails to serve the interest of the people.” Since population decline can encompass both sorting of people and their socio-economic context, it is therefore apposite to raise the question: to what extent do regions in decline face higher levels of populist voting when controlling for “compositional effects” (e.g., demographic factors) and “contextual effects” (e.g., regional economic conditions)? van LEEUWEN ET AL. 3 Like more European countries, the Netherlands has also faced a rise in parties labelled as populist. These include the PVV (Party for Freedom), the SP (Socialist Party), DENK and more recently the FvD (Forum for Democracy). Not- withstanding their similarities of having a charismatic leader and promoting anti-establishment sentiments, these parties actually exhibit quite distinctive party lines. In this respect, we have to be careful in interpreting votes for these parties in a similar way, which can also be a significant distinction to make in other countries with different political spectrums. For our study of the Netherlands, we distinguish between the largest right-wing party (PVV) and the most domi- nant left-wing populist party (SP). The empirical analysis uses outcomes from the 2012 and 2017 national elections to appraise the impact (or lack thereof) of population decline, along with a range of other potentially relevant factors. The relationship between populist voting in national elections and population decline has not been addressed before, nor the intricacies of populism encompassed in the different types of political parties in this context. Hence, it is of important to explore whether determinants have different impacts on the voting behaviour for these parties, and the wider policy implications. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows. First, we outline the related literature, also in context to the situation of declining regions in the Netherlands, spatial voting patterns and particulars of the populist parties. Accordingly, we present the relevant factors, method and data in Section 3, followed by the empirical results and discussion in Sections 4 and 5. Finally, we provide conclusions, policy implications, and potential directions for further research. 2 | THE IMPACT OF POPULATION DECLINE ON POPULIST VOTING 2.1 | Voter behaviour Why do citizens vote in democratic countries? Clearly, somehow, the gain from voting must make up for any deficit caused by the cost of participating for a citizen (Harder & Krosnick, 2008). From earlier research, we know demo- graphic factors play an important role by influencing both the motivation, ability to vote and the barriers to voting. Citizens with a higher education level are more likely to vote and have a higher voter turnout (Shields & Goidel, 1997). Education may increase the skills of a person to understand how the political system works which lowers the cost to vote. Wealthier people vote more than less wealthy citizens, possibly, because they have more at stake in the elections than less wealthy citizens (Harder & Krosnick, 2008). Also, age plays a role. Citizens are more likely to vote when they are in their middle adulthood, while after the age of 75 people vote less. Again, the middle adulthood may have gained more information about the political system and therefore are more motivated to vote. Another reason could be that this group of citizens has the most at stake in the outcome of the elections (Harder & Krosnick, 2008). Ethnicity is generally considered to not have a significant effect when controlling for income and education (see e.g., Bevelander & Pendakur, 2014). Of course, due to historical reasons, in some countries certain minorities might vote less often. Gender appears to have no significant effect as well. In addition, regional/local factors impact voter’s turnout. The motivation to vote, for example, is often affected by;
Load more

Recommended publications
  • NS Annual Report 2020
    NS Annual report 2020 See www.nsannualreport.nl for the online version The NS Annual Report 2020 is published in Dutch and English. In the event of discrepancies between the versions, the Dutch version prevails. Table of contents 3 In Brief 4 Foreword by the CEO 7 2020: A year dominated by COVID-19 15 Our strategy 19 Expected developments in the long term 21 How NS adds value to society 25 Our impact on the Netherlands 31 The profile of NS 36 Compensation for victims of WWII transports Our activities and achievements in the Netherlands 38 Our performance on the main rail network and the high-speed line 40 Customer satisfaction with the main rail network and the high-speed line 44 Performance on the main rail network and the high-speed line 49 Door-to-door journey 53 Stations and their environment 59 Travelling and working in safety 63 Performance on sustainability 71 Attractive and inclusive employer Our activities and achievements abroad 78 Abellio 84 Abellio UK 99 Abellio Germany Financial performance 108 Finance in brief NS Group 116 Report of the Supervisory Board 129 Corporate governance 134 Risk management 141 Organisational improvements 145 Dialogue with our stakeholders in the Netherlands 160 Notes to the material themes 162 About the scope of this report 164 Scope and reporting criteria Financial statements 167 Consolidated financial statements 244 Company financial statements Other information 248 Other information 248 Combined independent auditor’s report and assurance report 263 NS ten-year summary 265 Disclaimer 2 | In Brief 3 | Foreword by the CEO Over the past year, NS has proved to be a healthy company that is able to keep the Netherlands moving despite huge setbacks.
    [Show full text]
  • NATO Public Opinion on Nuclear Weapons January 2021
    NATO Public Opinion on Nuclear Weapons January 2021 Introduction New surveys reveal large segments of the population in six NATO states favor the alliance taking a drastically new course when it comes to nuclear weapons. They overwhelmingly support the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) and reject the station of nuclear weapons on their soil.Despite NATO’s official opposition to the​ ​2017 TPNW​, the new findings track with several​ ​recent​ public opinion polls show that public support stands firmly behind the ban and citizens no longer want their countries to participate in NATO’s nuclear sharing program. The polls, conducted in 2020 in Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, show that support for the TPNW and removing nuclear weapons is growing and that these states should choose to be among the first NATO states to join the treaty. The treaty​ ​takes full effect​ on 22 January 2021 and within one year the countries that have joined the treaty will meet to discuss its full implementation. There is​ ​no legal barrier​ for NATO states to join, on the contrary, there are many advantages for them to do so. Now is the time for NATO states to implement its democratic values and follow public opinion to join the treaty. Key Findings NATO public stand behind the ban Support for NATO countries to join the TPNW remains high with 89% of Spanish, 87% of Italians, 86% of Icelanders, 78% of Dutch and Danish and 77% of Belgians supporting their country joining the treaty. Percentage of respondents who answered “yes” to the question: “​Do you think your country should join the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?” Public support for official state position is extremely low What’s more, actual support for the official government policy to not join the TPNW is often in the single digits.
    [Show full text]
  • AVT20/FZ131562 1 2020 Memorandum on Tax Treaty Policy
    2020 Memorandum on Tax Treaty Policy (unofficial translation) 1. Introduction Since the adoption of the 2011 Memorandum on Tax Treaty Policy, more attention has rightly been paid to combating tax avoidance and to the special position of developing countries in relation to tax matters. Taken together with various other developments, this has altered the position adopted by the Netherlands in negotiations on tax treaties. In issuing this new Memorandum on Tax Treaty Policy, I wish to consult with parliament on the policy to be pursued by the Netherlands on tax treaties and clarify the Dutch negotiating position in advance of any future negotiations. In preparing this memorandum, I have chosen to outline the main political and policy-related arguments underlying the position adopted by the Dutch government in negotiations on tax treaties. A new memorandum is now needed because the 2011 memorandum has been superseded by more recent domestic and international anti-tax avoidance initiatives. The main international development in this respect is the OECD’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project commissioned by the G20. Over 130 countries are now working together, within the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework, on the implementation of the measures proposed by the BEPS project. Both the OECD Model Tax Convention on Income and on Capital (2017) and the UN Model Double Taxation Convention (2017) have been updated to bring them into line with this project (and also in other respects). On the domestic front, while countering tax avoidance is a key priority of the government,1 the need to ensure that legislation is enforceable in practice and also to retain an attractive business climate, as well as the growing importance of effective dispute resolution mechanisms, are all important considerations.
    [Show full text]
  • Recommendations for Governance and Policies in the COVID-19 Response
    D1.1 – Recommendations for governance and policies in the n-COV-2019 response Grant agreement number: 101003606 Due date of Deliverable: 31 August 2020 Start date of the project: 1 April 2020 Actual submission date: 30 August 2020 Duration: 36 months Deliverable approved by the WPL/CO : ☐ Lead Beneficiary: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VUA) Contributing beneficiaries: Svenska Handelshögskolan (HAN) The Open University (OU) Associazione Della Croce Rossa Italiana (CRI) Keywords - Wicked problem and slow burning crisis - COVID-19 Crisis Governance Framework - Whole-of-society approach - Interconnectedness and interdependencies - Decision-making, sensemaking and coordination - Societal resilience - Trusting relationships Dissemination Level PU Public x PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services) RE Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services) CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) History Author Date Reason for change Release Kees Boersma (VUA) 30 August 2020 Main author, submission [0.1] Nathan Clark (VUA) 28 August 2020 Edit chapter 3 and Summary Yiannis Kyratsis (VUA) 28 August 2020 Editing summary, chapter 1 and 2.2. Co- author chapter 3 Yiannis Kyratsis (VUA) 24 August 2020 Author section 2.4.1.2 Agnese Rollo (CRI) 14 August 2020 Author section 2.4.3.2 Ioanna Falagara Sigala 3 August 2020 Input Section 2.2.4 (HAN) Harith Alani (OU) 28 July 2020 Internal review Harith Alani (OU) 28 July 2020 Author section 2.3.4
    [Show full text]
  • EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 18.12.2020 SWD(2020)
    EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 18.12.2020 SWD(2020) 388 final COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Commission recommendations for The Netherlands' CAP strategic plan Accompanying the document COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Recommendations to the Member States as regards their strategic plan for the Common Agricultural Policy {COM(2020) 846 final} - {SWD(2020) 367 final} - {SWD(2020) 368 final} - {SWD(2020) 369 final} - {SWD(2020) 370 final} - {SWD(2020) 371 final} - {SWD(2020) 372 final} - {SWD(2020) 373 final} - {SWD(2020) 374 final} - {SWD(2020) 375 final} - {SWD(2020) 376 final} - {SWD(2020) 377 final} - {SWD(2020) 379 final} - {SWD(2020) 384 final} - {SWD(2020) 385 final} - {SWD(2020) 386 final} - {SWD(2020) 387 final} - {SWD(2020) 389 final} - {SWD(2020) 390 final} - {SWD(2020) 391 final} - {SWD(2020) 392 final} - {SWD(2020) 393 final} - {SWD(2020) 394 final} - {SWD(2020) 395 final} - {SWD(2020) 396 final} - {SWD(2020) 397 final} - {SWD(2020) 398 final} EN EN Contents 1. COMMISSION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE NETHERLANDS’ CAP STRATEGIC PLAN .............................................. 2 1.1 Foster a smart, resilient and diversified agricultural sector ensuring food security ............................................................ 2 1.2 Bolster environmental care and climate action and contribute to the environmental- and climate-related objectives of the Union .....................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • The Netherlands
    Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights THE NETHERLANDS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 17 March 2021 ODIHR Election Expert Team Final Report Warsaw 19 July 2021 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................ 1 II. INTRODUCTION AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ....................................................................... 2 III. BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................................ 3 IV. LEGAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................................................................... 3 A. TEMPORARY COVID-19 ELECTIONS ACT ..................................................................................... 4 B. PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN ............................................................................................................. 4 V. ELECTION ADMINISTRATION AND ALTERNATIVE VOTING METHODS ..................... 5 A. PROXY VOTING ................................................................................................................................. 6 B. POSTAL VOTING ................................................................................................................................ 7 C. EARLY VOTING ................................................................................................................................. 8 D. PARTICIPATION OF PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES .........................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • EASO Asylum Report 2021
    EASO Asylum Report 2021 Annual Report on the Situation of Asylum in the European Union Cover image: Steve Evans © European Asylum Support Office, 2021 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. For any use of reproduction of photos or other material that is not under the EASO copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holder. PDF ISBN 978-92-9465-049-8 ISSN 2314-9701 DOI 10.2847/6007 BZ-AB-21-001-EN-N HTML ISBN 978-92-9465-048-1 ISSN 2314-9701 DOI 10.2847/692856 BZ-AB-21-001-EN-Q EPUB ISBN 978-92-9465-047-4 ISSN 2314-9701 DOI 10.2847/165462 BZ-AB-21-001-EN-E EASO Asylum Report 2021 Annual Report on the Situation of Asylum in the European Union SUPPORT IS OUR MISSION EASO Asylum Report 2021 Foreword This year marks the 10th edition of the agency’s flagship publication, the EASO Asylum Report. The report has been continuously improved over the years to capture and report on the latest trends and policy discussions centred around building a harmonised Common European Asylum System (CEAS). We are proud that the EASO Asylum Report has evolved into the go-to source of information on asylum in Europe and reflects the growth of the agency as a centre of expertise on asylum since its founding on 19 June 2010. Indeed, EASO’s growing role is highlighted in the European Commission’s new Pact on Migration and Asylum, which was published in September 2020. The pact offers a fresh start to the discussion on an effective and humane management of migration and asylum in Europe.
    [Show full text]
  • Emile Aarts Hein Fleuren Margriet Sitskoorn Ton Wilthagen How the COVID-19 Pandemic Is Transforming Society
    Emile Aarts Hein Fleuren Margriet Sitskoorn Ton Wilthagen How the COVID-19 Pandemic is Transforming Society The New Common Emile Aarts • Hein Fleuren Margriet Sitskoorn • Ton Wilthagen Editors The New Common How the COVID-19 Pandemic is Transforming Society Editors Emile Aarts Hein Fleuren Tilburg University Tilburg University Tilburg, Te Netherlands Tilburg, Te Netherlands Margriet Sitskoorn Ton Wilthagen Tilburg University Tilburg University Tilburg, Te Netherlands Tilburg, Te Netherlands ISBN 978-3-030-65354-5 ISBN 978-3-030-65355-2 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65355-2 © Te Editor(s) (if applicable) and Te Author(s) 2021. Tis book is an open access publication. Open Access Tis book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. Te images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. Te use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specifc statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
    [Show full text]
  • Policy Work on Fire a Study of the Dutch Firework Policy Tightening and the Efficacy of Citizen Engagement and Awareness-Raising Measures
    Master’s Thesis MSc. Public Administration – International and European Governance Sophia M. Würtz (s2410079) E-Mail: [email protected] Supervision: Dr. Jelmer Schalk 2nd Reader: Dr. Rik de Ruiter Date of Submission: 21st of July 2020 Policy Work on Fire A study of the Dutch Firework Policy Tightening and the Efficacy of Citizen Engagement and Awareness-raising Measures Abstract This paper investigates the extent to which citizen engagement and awareness- raising approaches can contribute to citizens’ perceived legitimacy of the Dutch firework policy tightening. Based on the theoretical knowledge presented in existing literature, specific hypotheses are distilled. Briefly worded, the assumption is that citizen-engagement positively impacts citizens’ perceived legitimacy. However, this relationship is assumed to be mediated by conflicts of interests, whose negative impact can be positively moderated by awareness- raising projects. The findings of the in-depths study of, primarily, the outcomes of a publicly accessible case-related online consultation and twelve interviews do not confound the existing theories. However, new insights can be added and the given hypotheses require for refinements. Particularly concerns about the policy’s effectiveness appear prominent. Table of Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 3 1.1. Research Question and Main Concepts .................................................... 3 1.2. Research Goals ...........................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Franet National Contribution to the Fundamental Rights Report 2021
    Franet National contribution to the Fundamental Rights Report 2021 { The Netherlands} Contractor’s name: Art.1, Dutch knowledge centre on discrimination Authors’ name: Eddie Nieuwenhuizen, Peter Jorna (chr. 3), Ashley Terlouw Disclaimer: This document was commissioned under contract by the European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA) as background material for the project ‘FRA Fundamental Rights Report 2021”. The information and views contained in the document do not necessarily reflect the views or the official position of the FRA. The document is made publicly available for transparency and information purposes only and does not constitute legal advice or legal opinion. Contents The Netherlands .............................................................................. 4 Franet country study: policy and legal highlights 2020 .......................... 4 Chapter 1. Equality and non-discrimination .......................................... 6 Chapter 2. Racism, xenophobia and related intolerance ....................... 13 Chapter 3. Roma equality and inclusion ............................................ 22 Chapter 4. Asylum, visas, migration, borders and integration .............. 34 Chapter 5. Information society, privacy and data protection ................. 41 Chapter 6. Rights of the child .......................................................... 91 Chapter 7. Access to justice including crime victims ........................... 102 Chapter 8. Developments in the implementation of the Convention on the Rights of Persons
    [Show full text]