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Saudi Arabia has played a key role in Middle East politics for Bergenwall Samuel The Assertive Kingdom decades, yet often behind the scenes and through the employment of financial means. However, since the eruption of the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia has moved towards the centre stage of Middle Eastern affairs, while its security policy has become more forceful and inclined towards the use of military power beyond its borders. In fact, Saudi Arabia perceives itself as the leader of the Arab and Islamic world – and acts as if that is the case. Saudi Arabia has become the assertive kingdom. This report sheds light on Saudi Arabia’s security policy developments and priorities by assessing the kingdom’s threat perception, capabilities and strategies. Questions that will affect Saudi Arabia’s future stability and security policy developments are also discussed. The Assertive Kingdom Saudi Arabia’s Threat Perception, Capabilities and Strategies Samuel Bergenwall FOI-R--4390--SE ISSN1650-1942 www.foi.se December 2016 Samuel Bergenwall The Assertive Kingdom Saudi Arabia’s Threat Perception, Capabilities and Strategies Bild/Cover: TT Nyhetsbyrån och Hassan Ammar FOI-R--4390--SE Title The Assertive Kingdom Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--4390--SE Månad/Month December Utgivningsår/Year 2016 Antal sidor/Pages 55 ISSN 1650-1942 Kund/Customer Försvarsdepartmentet Forskningsområde 8. Säkerhetspolitik Projektnr/Project no A16103 Godkänd av/Approved by Lars Höstbeck Ansvarig avdelning Försvarsanalys Detta verk är skyddat enligt lagen (1960:729) om upphovsrätt till litterära och konstnärliga verk, vilket bl.a. innebär att citering är tillåten i enlighet med vad som anges i 22 § i nämnd lag. För att använda verket på ett sätt som inte medges direkt av svensk lag krävs särskild överenskommelse. This work is protected by the Swedish Act on Copyright in Literary and Artistic Works (1960:729). Citation is permitted in accordance with article 22 in said act. Any form of use that goes beyond what is permitted by Swedish copyright law, requires the written permission of FOI. FOI-R--4390--SE Sammanfattning Denna rapport bedömer Saudiarabiens hotbild, förmågor och strategier samt diskuterar frågor som kan komma att påverka kungarikets framtida stabilitet och säkerhetspolitik. Saudiarabien anser sig hotat på grund av Irans växande regionala inflytande; förändringar i USA:s Mellanösternpolitik; samt växande utmaningar från Daesh och al-Qaida; en saudisk vår; och till följd av ekonomisk stagnation. Tack vare ett årtionde av höga oljepriser har dock Saudiarabien byggt upp betydande ekonomiska förmågor och växande militär styrka samt bibehållit inflytande på områden som religion, media och i multilaterala institutioner. Saudiarabien använder sig av ett antal strategier för att minska upplevda hot och för att öka sina förmågor. Kungariket har antagit en radikal plan för ekonomisk reform, använder en kraftfull oljeprispolicy och utvecklar ett kärnenergiprogram. Saudiarabien moderniserar också sina väpnade styrkor, använder militärmakt utomlands och strävar efter att etablera en Riyadh-ledd regional säkerhetsarkitektur mindre beroende av väst. Vidare använder Saudiarabien repression mot oppositionella och finansiell diplomati samt nyttjar religion och media strategiskt för att säkerställa regimens intressen. Rapporten bedömer att Saudiarabiens framtida stabilitet och säkerhetspolitik framför allt kommer att påverkas av kungarikets relationer med Iran och USA, samt av Riyadhs förmåga att stärka ekonomin, hantera social förändring och undvika tronstrid inom kungafamiljen. 3 FOI-R--4390--SE Summary This report assesses Saudi Arabia’s threat perception, capabilities and strategies, as well as identifies questions that will have an effect on Saudi Arabia’s future stability and security policy. Saudi Arabia perceives its security to be under threat due to growing regional influence of Iran; shifts in US Middle East policy; rising challenges from Daesh and al-Qaeda; a Saudi Spring; as well as economic stagnation. Nevertheless, thanks largely to a decade of high oil prices, Saudi Arabia has amassed large economic capabilities and growing military strength, as well as retained influence through the fields of religion, media and in multilateral institutions. Saudi Arabia utilizes various strategies to mitigate perceived threats and to increase capabilities: adopting a radical plan for economic reform; employing an assertive oil price strategy; modernizing its armed forces; using military power abroad; developing a nuclear energy program; establishing a Saudi- led regional security architecture less dependent on the West; repressing political opposition; using chequebook diplomacy; and utilizing media and religion as strategic instruments. The report assesses that the future stability and security policy of Saudi Arabia above all will be affected by the evolution of the kingdom’s relations with Iran and the US, as well as by the ability of Riyadh to revive the economy, manage societal change and avoid a game of thrones within the royal family. 4 FOI-R--4390--SE Abbreviations ACPRA Saudi Civil and Political Rights Association AL Arab League AQAP Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula G20 Group of Twenty GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GDP Gross Domestic Product GID General Intelligence Directorate HNC High Negotiations Committee IMAFT Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism IMF International Monetary Fund IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MB Muslim Brotherhood NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty NWFZ Nuclear Weapon Free Zone OBOR One Belt One Road OIC Organization of Islamic Cooperation OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries P5+1 Permanent Members of the UN Security Council Plus Germany PIF Public Investment Fund UNGA United Nations General Assembly 5 FOI-R--4390--SE Table of Contents 1. Introduction 7 1.1. Purpose and Research Questions .................................................................. 8 1.2. Method, Sources and Definitions .................................................................... 8 1.3. Outline ............................................................................................................ 9 2. A Kingdom under Threat 10 2.1. The Iranian Threat ........................................................................................ 10 2.2. The Geostrategic Threat: US Retrenchment ................................................ 12 2.3. The Jihadi Threat: al-Qaeda and Daesh ...................................................... 13 2.4. The Threat of a Saudi Spring ....................................................................... 14 2.5. The Economic Threat: Oil Dependency and Stagnation .............................. 15 2.6. Conclusion .................................................................................................... 17 3. A Regional Great Power 18 3.1. Economic Capabilities .................................................................................. 18 3.2. Military Capabilities ...................................................................................... 21 3.3. Soft Power .................................................................................................... 25 3.4. Conclusion .................................................................................................... 26 4. Assertive Strategies 27 4.1. Reforming the Economy and Reducing Oil Dependency ............................. 27 4.2. Employing the Oil Weapon ........................................................................... 28 4.3. Modernizing the Armed Forces .................................................................... 28 4.4. Using Military Power Abroad ........................................................................ 29 4.5. Developing a Nuclear Energy Program ........................................................ 29 4.6. Establishing a Saudi-led Regional Order ..................................................... 30 4.7. Silencing the Voice of the People................................................................. 33 4.8. Using Chequebook Diplomacy ..................................................................... 33 4.9. Utilizing Media and Religion Strategically .................................................... 35 4.10. Conclusion .................................................................................................. 35 5. Looking Ahead 36 5.1. Cold War or Rapprochement with Iran? ....................................................... 36 5.2. Renewal of Vows with the US, or Divorce? .................................................. 38 5.3. Economic Decline or Rebirth? ...................................................................... 39 5.4. Authoritarianism, Democratization or Revolution? ....................................... 40 5.5. Game of Thrones: Muhammad versus Muhammad? ................................... 41 5.5. Conclusion .................................................................................................... 41 Bibliography 45 6 FOI-R--4390--SE 1 Introduction Saudi Arabia has played a key role in Middle East politics for decades, yet often behind the scenes and through the employment of financial means. However, since the eruption of the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia has moved towards the centre stage of Middle Eastern affairs, while its security policy has become more forceful and inclined towards the use of military power beyond its borders. In fact, Saudi Arabia perceives itself as the leader
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