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COVID-19 and Economic Policy Toward the New Normal: a Monetary-Fiscal Nexus After the Crisis?
IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS Requested by the ECON committee Monetar y Dialogue Papers, November 2020 COVID-19 and Economic Policy Toward the New Normal: A Monetary-Fiscal Nexus after the Crisis? Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies Directorate-General for Internal Policies Author: Thomas MARMEFELT EN PE 658.193 - November 2020 COVID-19 and Economic Policy Toward the New Normal: A Monetary-Fiscal Nexus after the Crisis? Monetary Dialogue Papers, November 2020 Abstract Current developments during the COVID-19 pandemic involve strongly complementary monetary and fiscal policy, but both as responses to COVID-19 and not the outcome of an emergent monetary-fiscal nexus. Therefore, the ECB maintains its independence by using unconventional monetary policy measures to reach price stability, according to its mandate. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 19 November 2020. This document was requested by the European Parliament's committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON). AUTHOR Thomas MARMEFELT, CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research (Warsaw, Poland) and University of Södertörn (Huddinge, Sweden) ADMINISTRATOR RESPONSIBLE Drazen RAKIC EDITORIAL ASSISTANT Janetta CUJKOVA LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN ABOUT THE EDITOR Policy departments provide in-house and external expertise to support European Parliament committees -
Marxist Economics: How Capitalism Works, and How It Doesn't
MARXIST ECONOMICS: HOW CAPITALISM WORKS, ANO HOW IT DOESN'T 49 Another reason, however, was that he wanted to show how the appear- ance of "equal exchange" of commodities in the market camouflaged ~ , inequality and exploitation. At its most superficial level, capitalism can ' V be described as a system in which production of commodities for the market becomes the dominant form. The problem for most economic analyses is that they don't get beyond th?s level. C~apter Four Commodities, Marx argued, have a dual character, having both "use value" and "exchange value." Like all products of human labor, they have Marxist Economics: use values, that is, they possess some useful quality for the individual or society in question. The commodity could be something that could be directly consumed, like food, or it could be a tool, like a spear or a ham How Capitalism Works, mer. A commodity must be useful to some potential buyer-it must have use value-or it cannot be sold. Yet it also has an exchange value, that is, and How It Doesn't it can exchange for other commodities in particular proportions. Com modities, however, are clearly not exchanged according to their degree of usefulness. On a scale of survival, food is more important than cars, but or most people, economics is a mystery better left unsolved. Econo that's not how their relative prices are set. Nor is weight a measure. I can't mists are viewed alternatively as geniuses or snake oil salesmen. exchange a pound of wheat for a pound of silver. -
Nber Working Paper Series Financial Markets and The
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE REAL ECONOMY John H. Cochrane Working Paper 11193 http://www.nber.org/papers/w11193 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 March 2005 This review will introduce a volume by the same title in the Edward Elgar series “The International Library of Critical Writings in Financial Economics” edited by Richard Roll. I encourage comments. Please write promptly so I can include your comments in the final version. I gratefully acknowledge research support from the NSF in a grant administered by the NBER and from the CRSP. I thank Monika Piazzesi and Motohiro Yogo for comments. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. © 2005 by John H. Cochrane. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Financial Markets and the Real Economy John H. Cochrane NBER Working Paper No. 11193 March 2005, Revised September 2006 JEL No. G1, E3 ABSTRACT I survey work on the intersection between macroeconomics and finance. The challenge is to find the right measure of "bad times," rises in the marginal value of wealth, so that we can understand high average returns or low prices as compensation for assets' tendency to pay off poorly in "bad times." I survey the literature, covering the time-series and cross-sectional facts, the equity premium, consumption-based models, general equilibrium models, and labor income/idiosyncratic risk approaches. -
Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
Global Wealth Inequality
EC11CH05_Zucman ARjats.cls August 7, 2019 12:27 Annual Review of Economics Global Wealth Inequality Gabriel Zucman1,2 1Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA; email: [email protected] 2National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA Annu. Rev. Econ. 2019. 11:109–38 Keywords First published as a Review in Advance on inequality, wealth, tax havens May 13, 2019 The Annual Review of Economics is online at Abstract economics.annualreviews.org This article reviews the recent literature on the dynamics of global wealth https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics- Annu. Rev. Econ. 2019.11:109-138. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org inequality. I first reconcile available estimates of wealth inequality inthe 080218-025852 United States. Both surveys and tax data show that wealth inequality has in- Access provided by University of California - Berkeley on 08/26/19. For personal use only. Copyright © 2019 by Annual Reviews. creased dramatically since the 1980s, with a top 1% wealth share of approx- All rights reserved imately 40% in 2016 versus 25–30% in the 1980s. Second, I discuss the fast- JEL codes: D31, E21, H26 growing literature on wealth inequality across the world. Evidence points toward a rise in global wealth concentration: For China, Europe, and the United States combined, the top 1% wealth share has increased from 28% in 1980 to 33% today, while the bottom 75% share hovered around 10%. Recent studies, however, may underestimate the level and rise of inequal- ity, as financial globalization makes it increasingly hard to measure wealth at the top. -
The Budgetary Effects of the Raise the Wage Act of 2021 February 2021
The Budgetary Effects of the Raise the Wage Act of 2021 FEBRUARY 2021 If enacted at the end of March 2021, the Raise the Wage Act of 2021 (S. 53, as introduced on January 26, 2021) would raise the federal minimum wage, in annual increments, to $15 per hour by June 2025 and then adjust it to increase at the same rate as median hourly wages. In this report, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill’s effects on the federal budget. The cumulative budget deficit over the 2021–2031 period would increase by $54 billion. Increases in annual deficits would be smaller before 2025, as the minimum-wage increases were being phased in, than in later years. Higher prices for goods and services—stemming from the higher wages of workers paid at or near the minimum wage, such as those providing long-term health care—would contribute to increases in federal spending. Changes in employment and in the distribution of income would increase spending for some programs (such as unemployment compensation), reduce spending for others (such as nutrition programs), and boost federal revenues (on net). Those estimates are consistent with CBO’s conventional approach to estimating the costs of legislation. In particular, they incorporate the assumption that nominal gross domestic product (GDP) would be unchanged. As a result, total income is roughly unchanged. Also, the deficit estimate presented above does not include increases in net outlays for interest on federal debt (as projected under current law) that would stem from the estimated effects of higher interest rates and changes in inflation under the bill. -
An Analysis of the Graded Property Tax Robert M
TaxingTaxing Simply Simply District of Columbia Tax Revision Commission TaxingTaxing FairlyFairly Full Report District of Columbia Tax Revision Commission 1755 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Suite 550 Washington, DC 20036 Tel: (202) 518-7275 Fax: (202) 466-7967 www.dctrc.org The Authors Robert M. Schwab Professor, Department of Economics University of Maryland College Park, Md. Amy Rehder Harris Graduate Assistant, Department of Economics University of Maryland College Park, Md. Authors’ Acknowledgments We thank Kim Coleman for providing us with the assessment data discussed in the section “The Incidence of a Graded Property Tax in the District of Columbia.” We also thank Joan Youngman and Rick Rybeck for their help with this project. CHAPTER G An Analysis of the Graded Property Tax Robert M. Schwab and Amy Rehder Harris Introduction In most jurisdictions, land and improvements are taxed at the same rate. The District of Columbia is no exception to this general rule. Consider two homes in the District, each valued at $100,000. Home A is a modest home on a large lot; suppose the land and structures are each worth $50,000. Home B is a more sub- stantial home on a smaller lot; in this case, suppose the land is valued at $20,000 and the improvements at $80,000. Under current District law, both homes would be taxed at a rate of 0.96 percent on the total value and thus, as Figure 1 shows, the owners of both homes would face property taxes of $960.1 But property can be taxed in many ways. Under a graded, or split-rate, tax, land is taxed more heavily than structures. -
Social Sciences: Achievements and Prospects Journal 3(11), 2019
Social Sciences: Achievements and Prospects Journal 3(11), 2019 Contents lists available at ScienceCite Index Social Sciences: Achievements and Prospects Journal journal homepage: http://scopuseu.com/scopus/index.php/ssap/index What are the differences between the study of Micro Economics and Macro Economics and how are they interrelated with regard to the drafting of economic policies to remain current and relevant to the global economic environment Azizjon Akromov 1, Mushtariybegim Azlarova 2, Bobur Mamataliev 2, Azimkhon Koriev 2 1 Student MDIST 2 Students Tashkent State University Economic ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Article history: As economics is mostly known for being a social science, studying production, Received consumption, distribution of goods and services, its primary goal is to care about Accepted wellbeing of its society, which includes firms, people, and so forth. The study of Available online economics mainly consists of its two crucial components, which are Keywords: microeconomics and macroeconomics. Together these main parts of economics are concerned with both private and public sector issues including, inflation, economic Macroeconomics, growth, choices, demand and supply, production, income, unemployment and many microeconomics, other aspects. It is already mentioned that wellbeing of society would be indicators, production, established when government, while making economics policies, assume all factors consumers, companies, including those people who are employed or unemployed, so that no one gets hurt economics, government or suffer in the end. When it comes to making economic decisions and policies, governments should take into consideration that decisions made on a macro level has huge impact on micro and the same with micro, firms, households, individuals’ behaviors and choices come as aggregate in total, then turns into macro level, which triggers the introduction of some policies. -
Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning
Recurrent Hyperin‡ations and Learning Albert Marcet Universitat Pompeu Fabra and CEMFI Juan Pablo Nicolini Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and Universitat Pompeu Fabra Working Paper No. 9721 December 1997 We thank Tony Braun, Jim Bullard, George Evans, Seppo Honkapohja, Rodi Manuelli, Ramon Marimon, Tom Sargent, Harald Uhlig, Neil Wallace and Car- los Zarazaga for helpful conversations and Marcelo Delajara and Ignacio Ponce Ocampo for research assistance. All errors are our own. Part of this work was done when both authors were visiting the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Research support from DGICYT, CIRIT and HCM is greatly appreciated. E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected]. CEMFI, Casado del Alisal 5, 28014 Madrid, Spain. Tel: 341 4290551, fax: 341 4291056, http://www.cem….es. Abstract This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperin‡ations in the last decade. We study a standard monetary model where the fully rational expectations assumption is replaced by a formal de…nition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learning is able to match remarkably well some crucial stylized facts observed during the recurrent hyperin‡ations experienced by several countries in the 80’s. We argue that, despite being a small departure from rational expec- tations, quasi-rational learning does not preclude falsi…ability of the model and it does not violate reasonable rationality requirements. Keywords: Hyperin‡ations, convertibility, stabilization plans, quasi-rationality. JEL classi…cation: D83, E17, E31. 1 Introduction The goal of this paper is to develop a model that accounts for the main fea- tures of the hyperin°ations of last decade and to study the policy recomen- dations that arise from it. -
A Structural Model of the Unemployment Insurance Take-Up
A Structural Model of the Unemployment Insurance Take-up Sylvie Blasco∗ Fran¸coisFontainey GAINS, University of Aarhus, BETA-CNRS, CREST and IZA LMDG and IZA. January 2012 - IN PROGRESSz Abstract A large fraction of the eligible workers do not claim the unemployment insurance when they are unemployed. This paper provides a structural framework to identify clearly, through the esti- mates, the economic mechanisms behind take-up. It incorporates take-up in a job search model and accounts for the determinants of claiming, especially the level of the unemployment benefits and the practical difficulties to make a claim. It provides a simple way to model selection into participation and sheds new light on the link between the job search and the claiming efforts. We estimate our model using a unique administrative dataset that matches a linked employer - employee data and the records of the national employment agency. Keywords: Unemployment Insurance Take-up, Job Search JEL Classification numbers: J64, J65, C41 ∗Address : Universit´e du Maine, Av. Olivier Messiaen, 72085 Le Mans Cedex 9, France ; Email: [email protected] yUniversity of Nancy 2, Email: [email protected]. zWe thank Jesper Bagger, Sebastian Buhai, Sam Kortum, David Margolis, Dale Mortensen, Fabien Postel-Vinay, Jean-Marc Robin, Chris Taber and participants at the Tinbergen Institute internal seminar, CREST-INSEE, Nancy and Royal Holloway seminars, the ESEM conference, the AFSE, IZA-Labor Market Policy Evalation, LMDG, T2M workshops for comments and discussions. This is a preliminary version of the paper, the readers are invited to check on the authors' websites for newer versions. -
Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants Kathryn Holston and Thomas Laubach Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System John C. Williams Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco December 2016 Working Paper 2016-11 http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/wp2016-11.pdf Suggested citation: Holston, Kathryn, Thomas Laubach, John C. Williams. 2016. “Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2016-11. http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working- papers/wp2016-11.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants∗ Kathryn Holston Thomas Laubach John C. Williams December 15, 2016 Abstract U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest { the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances { have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the natural rate in the United States fell to close to zero during the crisis and has remained there into 2016. Explanations for this decline include shifts in demographics, a slowdown in trend productivity growth, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the Laubach-Williams methodology to the United States and three other advanced economies { Canada, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom. -
Consumerism and Environmental Policy: Moving Past Consumer Culture
Consumerism and Environmental Policy: Moving Past Consumer Culture Bradley A. Harsch* CONTENTS Introduction ......................................................................... 544 I. Environmental Problems and Ways of Dealing With Th em ............................................................................ 548 A. Industrial Economy and the Environment ............... 548 B. Conventional Approaches to Addressing Environmental Problems ......................................... 550 C. Proposed Approaches to Addressing Environmental Problem s ................................................................ 552 1. Market-Based Approaches: Internalizing Externalities ...................................................... 553 2. Reducing Energy and Raw Material Input .......... 554 3. Proposed Approaches that Address Consum ption ..................................................... 554 II. Consum er Culture ........................................................ 555 A. The Historical Development and Critique of the Consum er Culture .................................................. 557 B. Definitive Aspects of Consumer Culture .................. 559 1. The Reification of Images .................................. 559 2. The Market as the Primary Means of Satisfying D esires .............................................................. 562 C. Advertising and Consumer Culture ......................... 566 1. Advertising and its Place in Society .................... 566 2. Our Incredulity .................................................