In Defense of Conspiracy Theories
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In defence of conspiracy theories Matthew Richard Xavier Xander Xanthias Xerxes Xanatos X Dracos Hieronymus Oliphant Ransome Dentith A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Auckland, 2012 ii iii Abstract The purpose of this doctoral project is to explore the epistemic issues surrounding the concept of the conspiracy theory and to advance the analysis and evaluation of the conspiracy theory as a mode of explanation. The candidate is interested in the circumstances under which inferring to the truth or likeliness of a given conspiracy theory is, or is not, warranted. iv v “To understand conspiracy theorists, I now believe, is to first understand that civilization is a conspiracy against reality.” (Vanakin, 1991, p. 259) I would like to dedicate this work to my Great Aunt Girleen and my Uncle Basil, who, of all my family, would have been the most proud, and to Lek, who was not just some cat. vi Acknowledgements Te Namu: you made complete and utterly unrealistic demands as to when this thesis should be finished. Still, thanks. Jon and Justine: it’s been a journey, has it not, and one that we all seemed to survive with our wits and friendships intact. Well done us. We deserve cake. Mum: thank you for being there for me and supporting me. To my volunteer proofers (not Truthers), Aimee Whitcroft, Andrew Withy, Giovanni Tiso, Joshua Addison, Phillippa McKeown-Green: cher cher. To James Randi and the people at the JREF: that scholarship was a boon. I hope you consider it money well-spent. To HORansome: without you a lot of this would not have been possible. viii Contents Introduction 1 1 On definitions of conspiracy theories 15 1.1 Conspiracies . 16 1.2 Some terminology . 18 1.3 Conspiracy theories: a survey of definitions and conceptions 19 1.3.1 Non-philosophical definitions of conspiracy theories 19 1.3.1.1 The Oxford English Dictionary on conspir- acy theories . 19 1.3.1.2 Political commentators . 20 1.3.1.3 Historians . 22 1.3.1.4 Sociologists . 23 1.3.1.5 Psychology . 25 1.3.2 Philosophical work on conspiracy theories . 26 1.3.2.1 Brian L. Keeley . 26 1.3.2.2 Charles Pigden . 27 1.3.2.3 Lee Basham . 28 1.3.2.4 Steve Clarke . 30 1.3.2.5 David Coady . 30 1.3.2.6 Neil Levy . 32 1.3.2.7 Pete Mandik . 32 1.3.2.8 Juha Raikk¨ a¨ . 33 1.3.3 Commonalities and a taxonomy of conspiracy theories 35 1.4 Some features of my definition of “conspiracy theory” . 37 1.4.1 The First Feature: Surprise parties qualify as con- spiracies . 39 1.4.2 The Second Feature: Conspiracies are not necessar- ily a sinister kind of activity . 43 1.5 Conclusion . 47 x CONTENTS 2 The role of desires and intentions in conspiracy theories 49 2.1 Conspiracy theories as historical explanations . 50 2.2 Criticisms of the intentional aspect of conspiracy theories . 51 2.3 Inferring to the desire to conspire . 55 2.3.1 Linking desires of agents with the occurrence of events . 56 2.3.1.1 Qualified conspiracy theorists . 57 2.3.2 Conspiring together: claims of conspiracy as claims about group activity . 62 3 The Open Society and the issue of the Public Trust 67 3.1 The conspiracy theory of society . 68 3.1.1 Consummation . 70 3.2 The unfalsifiability of conspiracy theories . 73 3.2.1 Errant data . 75 3.3 Public Trust Skepticism . 83 3.4 The Openness Objection . 92 4 Contrasting conspiracy and official theories 99 4.1 The Role of Endorsements in assessing explanations . 101 4.2 Contrasting the endorsement of an explanation with its evidential support . 104 4.2.1 The Moscow Show Trials . 104 4.3 Finessing the space between warranted endorsed and un- warranted sneered at explanations . 108 4.4 Appealing to Authority . 114 4.4.1 Lysenkoism . 118 4.4.2 Can we trust political sources? . 125 4.4.3 Individual vs. group trust . 129 5 Disinformation and the selective use of evidence in conspiracy and official theories 135 5.1 Selectiveness and Disinformation . 136 5.2 Example I: Rock Me, Amadeus . 139 5.3 Example II: Operation 8 . 144 5.4 Inspecting for selected evidence and disinformation . 151 6 The transmission of conspiracy theories 157 6.1 Rumours . 160 6.1.1 CAJ Coady on the unreliability of rumours . 162 6.1.2 David Coady on rumours and reliability . 164 CONTENTS xi 6.2 Rumouring vs. rumour-mongering . 167 6.3 The transmission of conspiracy theories . 172 7 The Inference to the Existence of a Conspiracy 185 7.1 The Inference to Any Old Explanation . 186 7.1.1 Example I: Lewis Carroll and Alice Liddell . 187 7.2 Four mistakes an agent might make when inferring to an explanatory hypothesis . 191 7.2.1 Example II: Irvine and Mallory’s attempt at the sum- mit of Sagarmath¯ a¯ . 192 7.2.2 Example III: Not exactly Life on Mars . 193 7.3 Conspiracy theories and Inferring to Them . 196 7.3.1 Example IV: The Inside Job Hypotheses . 199 7.3.2 Example V: The Outside Job Hypothesis . 202 7.4 Linking a warranted belief in the existence of a conspiracy to an explanation . 204 7.4.1 Example VI: The Oklahoma City Bombing . 205 7.4.2 Example VII: A Paranoid Peer-Review Fantasy . 208 References 217 xii CONTENTS Introduction Former American presidential candidate Lyndon LaRouche believes that the psychedelic rock group, “The Grateful Dead,” were a front for the British Secret Service’s Occult Branch and were sent to the United States of America by direct order of the Queen of England to promote drugs to American youths. According to LaRouche, this is simply one fight in the grandest and most philosophical conspiracy of all time, which is the conflict between the Empiricists (whose philosophical leaders include such luminaries as David Hume and Bertrand Russell) and the Rational- ists (whose most notable “founder,” apparently, is Immanuel Kant). The Empiricists (who, according to LaRouche, are the power behind the dec- adent United Kingdom and the European Union) are seeking to force their hedonistic ways on the American people and their American Way of Life, which LaRouche has identified as the most ideal form of Rationalism1. If LaRouche is to be believed, whether we are aware of it or not, philosophers are part and parcel of a grand conspiracy to decide what form our civilisation will take in the future. 1Which he characterises as a philosophy in which we live our lives according to strict moral truths derived from reasoning rather than mere experience. 2 Introduction In 1774CE Adam Weishaupt founded a secret society, the Illuminati, a group which specialised in the infiltration and taking over of Freemasonic lodges in order to promote the ideals of the Enlightenment. Although the Illuminati were officially disbanded in 1785CE by edict of the Bav- arian Government, the Illuminati merely went to ground and focused their attention elsewhere. Some of the Illuminati went to France, which was going through a period of political upheaval. They infiltrated the Bourgeoisie and, by fomenting anti-Church and anti-monarchal sentiment, they were able to orchestrate the First (and glorious) French Revolution of 1789CE. The Illuminati masterplan was simple: they would work towards the goal of overthrowing all aristocratic, non-democratic governments until the world was being governed by the people, for the people. Or, at least, that was what the members of the Illuminati wanted us to believe. By the time of the First French Revolution Weishaupt had emigrated to the Americas where he had replaced a now deceased George Washington (of whom he was the spitting image) at the Constitutional Convention of 1787CE. By playing off settler antipathy towards the British Crown he, and other like-minded Illuminati, brought about the formation of the United States of America. The Illuminati’s real plan was one that focussed on the long-term goal of bringing the entire world under one global synarchist (but not aristocratic)2 government. Focussing mostly on the fledging nation of 2Synarchism is the political system where the people best suited to rule are given political power. It is taken to be a rival to Anarchism. 3 America, supported at the time by the new French Republic, a set of scandals around the ownership of slaves were created to bring the loosely knit collation of the individual States into one federally controlled Union. An economic depression was then orchestrated by the Illuminati in the early Twentieth Century to ensure that American-made goods would pro- liferate overseas and thus make the world reliant on American industry. Once this financial control was established, medical experimentation on ethnic minorities soon followed, allowing, in the late Twentieth Century, for a global, American-run, pharmaceutical concern to come into domin- ance with the specific intention of introducing fluoride, a chemical agent known to make humans docile, into foreign water-supplies, thus aiding the Illuminati in carrying out their masterplan of global governance. Or so some claim. In September 2001CE eleven Middle-Eastern nationals hijacked four flights flying over the continental United States of America. Two of the hijacked planes were then crashed into the World Trade Centre in New York, destroying the Twin Towers. These actions were designed to show the citizens and government of the USA just how vulnerable it was to external threats and, to a certain extent, remind the American people of their implicit support, through the deeds of their democratically-elected government, for their actions on foreign soil.