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Aktieudsyn DSV Aktieudsyn DSV Hold UTi-integration og indtjeningsudvikling i fokus Uændret Holdanbefaling siden 09/10/2015 Analysedato: 27/10/2016 Fokuspunkter i 3. kvartalsregnskabet for 2016 Konkurrentregnskaber. Kuehne & Nagels regnskab viste et fortsat svagt forretningsmiljø Aktuel kurs kl. 12:08: uden nævneværdig vækst. Samtidig understregede regnskabet, at de største og mere specialiserede speditører stadig har masser af rum til at vokse hurtigere end markedet. 330,30 DKK Både Kuehne & Nagel og Panalpina blev i 3. kvartal ramt af et vist marginpres i forlængel- se af containerrederiet Hanjins konkurs, der betød en uvarslet, pludselig og kraftigt rate- Begivenhed: stigning. Opkøb af UTi. Opkøbet af UTi tiltrækker sig stadig stor opmærksomhed. DSV viste i 2. 3. kvartalsregnskab kvartal solide takter og voksede hurtigere end markedet organisk – på trods af den kræ- 2016 vende integrationsproces. Vi forventer, at selskabet holder fast i de fine takter i 3. kvartal. Kvartalsregnskabet giver utvivlsomt endnu mere overblik over indregningen af UTi i DSVs Hvornår: forretningssegmenter. Vi holder fortsat øjnene skarpere på det samlede billede end på Tirsdag d. 01/10/16 kl. mellemregningerne. 7.30 ’Air & Sea’. Inden for søfragt forventer vi en høj volumenfremgang på 59% i 3. kvartal med bidraget fra UTis forretning. DSV har formentlig også mærket de negative margin-effekter Kursudvikling ift. index fra Hanjins konkurs, og derfor forventer vi en lidt lavere indtjening pr. container (TEU) end i de foregående kvartaler og en bruttomarginal på 24,4% inden for søfragt. I luftfragt har det givet været småt med afbrydelser, og vi forventer en mængdevækst på 96%. 2. kvar- talstallene indikerede, at UTi faktisk løfter bruttoresultatet pr. ton. Den tendens, forventer vi, fortsætter i 3. kvartal. Samlet forventer vi en omsætning på 9.178 mio. kr., en brutto- marginal på 25,7% og EBIT på 629 mio. kr. i kvartalet. ’Road’. Effekten fra UTi er ikke så stor i ’Road’ som i ’Air & Sea’. Den europæiske vej- transport ser ud til at være fortsat i nogenlunde samme adstadige tempo som i 1. halvår, men DSV har formentlig vundet yderligere markedsandele. Vi forventer en omsætnings- vækst på 15% (men højere vækst i antal sendinger pga. lavere brændstofpriser) til 6.951 mio. kr. Vi forventer ingen væsentlig ændring i konkurrenceintensiteten og imødeser en bruttomarginal på 18,3% og EBIT på 250 mio. kr. i 3. kvartal. Ændring i EPS-estimater: ’Solutions’. Vi modellerer en omsætning på 2.362 mio. kr. i 3. kvartal – og EBIT før særlige År Før Nu poster på 92 mio. kr. 2016E 8,28 8,28 Prognose. Vi imødeser stadig et resultat lige over midtpunktet af DSVs allerede offentlig- 2017E 13,99 13,99 gjorte prognoseinterval og forventer således ikke en decideret opjustering af resultatprog- nosen. En oprevidering af intervallet til den høje ende er dog muligt, hvis integrationspro- Selskabets forventninger: cessen af UTi forløber bedre end forventet – og det skulle ikke være første gang, det er EBIT før særlige poster forven- tes i niveauet 3.300-3.500 mio. sket i DSV-regi. Marginpresset inden for søfragt peger derimod mere i retning af fasthold- kr. i 2016. te forventninger. Mio. kr. 3K 2015 3K 2016E Vækst 2015 2016E Vækst 2017E Nettoomsætning 12.535 18.115 44,5% 50.869 69.279 36,2% 75.446 Resultat af primær drift (EBIT) 851 795 -6,6% 3.050 2.371 -22,3% 3.880 Resultat før skat 773 685 -11,4% 2.689 2.061 -23,4% 3.505 Nettoresultat 577 514 -11,0% 2.056 1.546 -24,8% 2.611 EPS (DKK) 3,41 2,75 -19,3% 11,95 8,28 -30,7% 13,99 Overskudsgrad 6,8% 4,4% - 6,0% 3,4% - 5,1% DSV, nr. 6/ 2016 Jacob Pedersen, CFA Aktieanalysechef tlf. +45 74 37 44 52 [email protected] 27-10-2016 sydbank.dk Aktieanalysen 1/2 Almindelige oplysninger om udarbejdelse af analyser i Sydbank Denne analyse er udarbejdet af Sydbanks aktieanalyseafdeling, som er en del af Sydbank Markets, en forretningsenhed i Sydbank. Sydbank er under tilsyn af Finanstilsy- net. Sydbank har udarbejdet procedurer, der skal forebygge og forhindre interessekonflikter og sikre, at de udarbejdede analyser har en høj standard og er baseret på objektiv og uafhængig analyse. Disse procedurer er indarbejdet i forretningsgangene, der omfatter aktieanalyseaktiviteterne i Sydbank. Finansielle modeller og metoder anvendt i denne analyse De anbefalinger og holdninger, der udtrykkes i denne analyse er dannet på basis af en kombination af Discounted Cash Flow-analyse, branchekendskab, peer-group mul- tipel analyse samt selskabsspecifikke og markedstekniske elementer (begivenheder der påvirker både selskabets finansielle og driftsmæssige profil). Analysens omsæt- nings- og indtjeningsestimater (markeret med E efter det angivne årstal) er baseret på segmenterede modeller under anvendelse af subjektive vurderinger af relevante fremtidige markedstendenser og konjunkturforventninger. De heraf fremkomne resultater er samlet i en værdiansættelsesmodel, som også tager højde for den seneste ud- vikling i historiske rapporter. Endvidere tages der højde for selskabets egne samt konkurrerende selskabers forventninger. Analysen er udarbejdet på grundlag af informati- on fra kilder, som Sydbank finder troværdige. Primære kilder: DSV, Kuehne & Nagel, Panalpina. Risikovurdering og følsomhed En vurdering af de væsentligste risikoforhold og en kategorisering af risikoen (lav, middel eller høj) i forbindelse med anbefalingerne og holdningerne til denne analyse, her- under en følsomhedsanalyse, er gengivet i den senest udsendte Aktienyt på dette selskab, der kan findes på http://www.sydbank.dk/investering/analyser/aktier. Heraf fremgår ligeledes en vurdering af selskabets konkurrenceposition, som scores på en skala fra 1 til 5, hvor en høj score er ensbetydende med en stærk konkurrencepositi- on. De anførte risikofaktorer og følsomhedsanalysen kan dog ikke anses for at være udtømmende. Valutakursrisiko Såfremt aktiekursen er noteret i en anden valuta end danske kroner kan valutakursudsving påføre investorer tab eller gevinst. Interessekonflikter. Denne investeringsanalyse har ikke været forelagt det omhandlede selskab forud for analysens offentliggørelse. Planlagte opdateringer af analysen Denne analyse planlægges opdateret kvartalsvist. Anbefalingsstruktur Inden for det seneste kvartal har Sydbank haft investeringsanbefalinger på 24 selskaber. Fordelingen af anbefalinger fremgår nedenfor under ”Fordeling af anbefalinger”. Betydningen af anbefalingerne på selskabsniveau fremgår nedenfor under kursudvikling. På selskabsniveau: Anbefaling Kursudvikling Tidshorisont Fordeling af anbefalinger Køb Bedre end gennemsnittet af virksomheder i kategorien 12 måneder 33,3% Hold På linje med gennemsnittet af virksomheder i kategorien 12 måneder 45,8% Sælg Dårligere end gennemsnittet af virksomheder i kategorien 12 måneder 20,8% Vi opdeler virksomhederne i to kategorier - cykliske og defensive aktier. Køb betyder således, at aktien vil klare sig relativt bedre end de øvrige selskaber i kategorien. Hold betyder, at aktien vil klare sig på linje med de øvrige selskaber i kategorien. Endelig betyder sælg, at vi forventer, at aktien vil klare sig dårligere end de øvrige aktier i kate- gorien. Eventuelle ændringer i anbefalingen i forhold til den seneste anbefaling på selskabet fremgår af denne analyse. Anbefalingsoversigt: Køb Hold Sælg Danske Bank A. P. Møller Mærsk Bang & Olufsen Pandora DSV FLSmidth Vestas Nordea Rockwool Cykliske aktier SAS Carlsberg ALK‐Abelló DONG Energy Genmab Chr. Hansen TDC GN Store Nord Coloplast William Demant H. Lundbeck ISS Defensive aktier Novo Nordisk Novozymes Tryg For en uddybning af alle anbefalinger samt en historisk anbefalingsoversigt for selskabet henviser vi til www.sydbank.dk/investering/analyser/aktierHU .UH Denne investeringsanalyse henvender sig til Sydbanks kunder og må ikke uden Sydbanks udtrykkelige samtykke offentliggøres eller distribueres videre. Sydbank påtager sig intet ansvar for mangler, herunder eventuelle fejl i kilder, trykfejl eller beregningsfejl, samt efterfølgende ændrede forudsætninger. Anbefalinger i analysen er udtryk for bankens generelle holdning og kan ikke alene danne grundlag for investeringsbeslutninger. Anbefalinger kan medtages i forbindelse med rådgivning i Sydbank, hvor tillige kunders individuelle forhold skal indgå. Investering er forbundet med risikoen for økonomisk tab. Hverken historiske afkast og kursudvikling eller prognoser for fremtiden i materialet kan anvendes som pålidelig indikator for fremtidige afkast og kursudvikling. Et afkast og/eller en kursudvikling som beskrevet i dette materiale kan blive negativ. Hvor oplysningerne er baseret på brut- toafkast, vil gebyrer, provisioner og andre omkostninger kunne medføre, at afkastet bliver lavere end anført i materialet. Hvor materialet oplyser om den skattemæssige behandling af en disposition, er det med forbehold for, at den skattemæssige behandling altid afhænger af den enkelte kundes individuelle situation og at reglerne i øvrigt kan ændre sig fremover. I analysen nævnes aktier, som har risikomærkningen gul. Risikomærkningen gul betyder, at når der investeres i aktier, er der risiko for, at det investerede beløb kan tabes helt eller delvist. Produkttypen er typisk ikke vanskelig at gennemskue. Denne publikation er ikke et tilbud om eller en opfordring til at købe eller sælge finansielle instrumenter. Sydbank fraskriver sig ethvert ansvar for tab, der måtte have direkte eller indirekte sammenhæng med dispositioner, der er foretaget alene på baggrund af anbefalinger i analysen. Jacob Pedersen ejer ikke aktier i DSV. Sydbank eller dens ansatte kan besidde finansielle instrumenter omhandlet i analysen. Sydbank A/S, Peberlyk 4, 6200 Aabenraa, cvr. nr. 12626509 er under tilsyn af Finanstilsynet, Århusgade 110, 2100 København Ø. sydbank.dk Aktieanalysen 2/2 .
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