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Real Estate Investment SINGAPORE RETAIL BULLETIN 1Q 2014 30 April 2014 1Q 2014 island-wide retail rents chiefly boosted by malls in city hall after AEIs Island wide prime retail rents increased 0.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter for the first three months of this year on the back of a 3.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth in prime rents for malls in Marina / City Hall / Bugis. As prime spaces are limited and still well-sought after by retailers, island-wide prime space retail rents are expected to remain th firm with potential upside of about 3 to 5 per cent by 4 quarter 2014. Retail malls in City Hall drove prime rents higher in 1Q 2014: Gross rents of prime retail spaces across Singapore inched marginally by 0.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), from a monthly average of $31.70 per sq ft in 4Q 2013 to $31.90 per sq ft in 1Q 2014. Except for the Marina / City Hall / Bugis and Suburban clusters that registered positive q-o-q increases of 3.2 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively, average monthly prime retail rents across Singapore remained flat. “Malls which underwent Asset Enhancement Major retail malls Suntec City and Marina Square continued to register Initiatives continue to see positive rental growths as a result of the Asset Enhancement Initiatives (AEIs) improved rentals. This carried out in the two malls. With the completion of first phase of AEIs in emphasises the 2013, Suntec City Mall welcomed the influx of additional retail spaces and importance and necessity enhanced trade mix offerings, with many retail space leases being transacted of constantly refreshing at higher levels compared to the rental levels prior to the start of major AEI retail offerings to create phases. new shopping experiences. Similarly within the same vicinity, Marina Square, which is slated to undergo three phases of AEIs, has completed Phase 1 in June 2013 and Phase 2 is Going forth for this year, expected to complete by the end of 2014. As a result, average monthly rents consumers are likely to be of prime retail spaces in Marina Square also registered positive rental growth. spoilt for choice with 2.3 Overall, these malls registered an average rental growth of between 10 per million sq ft of new supply cent and 20 per cent for prime spaces within the malls. to be released to the market.” CapitaCommercial Trust also announced the lease renewal of 100,000 sq ft for major tenant, Robinsons / Marks & Spencer in Raffles City Shopping Centre. Heidi Yong, Director, Head of Retail On a year-on-year basis, prime retail rents at the Marina Centre / City Hall Retail Property Market | 1 SINGAPORE RETAIL BULLETIN 1Q 2014 30 April 2014 Bugis cluster increased by 6.0 per cent. Exhibit 1: Monthly Gross Retail Rents* for Prime Spaces, 1Q 2014 Average Monthly Quarter Gross Retail Year on on Location Rentals (Prime Year Quarter Spaces**) Change Change (S$ per sq ft) Island wide $31.90 1.9% 0.8% Orchard Road (Central) $47.80 0.0% 0.0% Orchard Road (Fringe) $24.10 0.0% 0.0% Marina Centre, City Hall, Bugis $32.60 6.0% 3.2% City Fringe $22.90 0.0% 0.0% Suburban $32.30 3.9% 1.0% Source: Knight Frank Research *Retail Rents are rounded off to the nearest ten cents ** Prime Spaces refers to rental-yielding units between 350 and 1,500 sq ft with the best frontage, connectivity, footfall, and accessibility in a mall which are typically the ground level of a retail mall and/or the basement level of a retail mall that is linked to a MRT or bus station. Retail malls in Jurong achieved higher suburban rents: Notwithstanding the initial gestation period for the new retail malls in Jurong East to see stabilising rents, average prime retail rents in Jurong are among the highest across the different suburban retail mall clusters in Singapore. As at 1Q 2014, the monthly gross prime retail rents of shopping malls in the Jurong cluster (comprising both Jurong East and Jurong West precincts) averaged about $32.50 per sq ft, higher than the average prime retail rents of $32.30 per sq ft for suburban malls across Singapore. However, not all the retail malls in the Jurong cluster are registering high rents. Some of the newer malls are still undergoing operational issues or face competition from the existing established malls, which affected the achievable rentals for the landlords of new malls. Recently touted to be one of the possible locations for the terminal of the proposed high-speed rail (HSR) link between Singapore and Malaysia, the potential for a significant boost in catchment population and footfall is immense. A future increase in demand from retailers for malls in Jurong, especially Jurong East, along with potential rental growth are expected within the next few years, should the HSR terminal be located in Jurong East Regional Centre. Retail Property Market | 2 SINGAPORE RETAIL BULLETIN 1Q 2014 30 April 2014 Rental gap between Orchard Road and City Hall / Marina Square / Bugis clusters narrowed in 1Q 2014: Since 4Q 2012, the rental gap between the average prime retail rents in Orchard Road (Central & Fringe) and City Hall / Marina Square / Bugis clusters has been narrowing from 16.8 per cent to 10.2 per cent in 1Q 2014. With Heeren being the only addition to the retail belt in Orchard Road over the past year, average monthly rents of prime spaces in Orchard Road have been relatively stable, and stayed at close to $36.00 per sq ft for most established malls in the Fringe and Central parts of Orchard Road. Retail malls in City Hall / Marina Square / Bugis, on the other hand, have been undergoing AEIs and consequently, renewals and new leases are being signed at higher rental levels. Exhibit 2: Average Prime Retail Rents for Orchard (Central & Fringe) and Marina Centre / City Hall / Bugis Source: Knight Frank Research Market Outlook Majority of total upcoming supply expected to be completed in 2014: In the four years between 2014 and 2018, there will be approximately 4.1 million sq ft of new retail spaces for major developments expected to be released to the market. About 45.2 per cent of the total net lettable area will be completed in 2014, which amounts to about 1.9 million sq ft of new supply. Beyond 2014, the average annual new retail supply between 2015 and 2018 is Retail Property Market | 3 SINGAPORE RETAIL BULLETIN 1Q 2014 30 April 2014 expected to be about 0.57 million sq ft. Exhibit 3: Upcoming Net Lettable Retail Space by Year and Region 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 Net LettableNet Space Retail (sq ft) 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Outside Central Region Orchard & Rest of Central Area Downtown Core City Fringe Source: Knight Frank Research While the new malls completed in the previous year comprise major malls of more than 200,000 sq ft apiece, the upcoming retail supply in 2014 mostly includes smaller retails malls or mixed commercial developments. Some of these few major malls include The Seletar Mall and One KM. These new malls to be opened in 2014 are evenly spread across Singapore with different targeted tenant mix and positioning. This would provide a retail landscape with higher diversity for varying target markets and thereby fostering stability in overall retail demand. Malls such as Orchard Gateway ( which obtained Temporary Occupation Permit in 1Q 2014) tend to attract the niche fashion stores such as Whole9Yards, an emerging international womenswear label based in Singapore or SECTS shop, menswear focusing on multi-label boutique concept. Meanwhile, other malls such as One KM in Paya Lebar, is a destination for lifestyle and knowledge mainly catering to families with anchor tenant such as Cold Storage and F&B operator such as the Paradise Group. Potential Growth in City Hall and the Civic District: With the expected opening of Capitol Singapore and the National Art Gallery, City Hall and the Civic District are set to undergo notable transformation in the next two years. Capitol Singapore, the previous Stamford House and Capitol Building, is a $1.1 billion integrated development comprising a luxury 157-room hotel, a Retail Property Market | 4 SINGAPORE RETAIL BULLETIN 1Q 2014 30 April 2014 1,000-seating theatre, a four-storey upmarket retail mall and 39 units of luxury class apartments. Developed by a joint venture entity comprising Perennial Real Estate Holdings, Pontiac Land Group and Mr Ron Sim of Osim, the development will be the first in Singapore with a six-storey basement connected to City Hall MRT station. While Capitol Theatre is expected to open in 2015, majority of the development, including the retail mall of about net lettable area of 140,000 sq ft, is likely to open by end-2014. Besides Capitol Singapore, there will be more retail spaces in City Hall precinct next year following the opening of the National Art Gallery in 2015. The former Supreme Court and City Hall Building will be amalgamated to form the National Art Gallery, a visual and lifestyle art destination with 40,000 sq ft of retail space. The opening of these developments will enhance the existing arts enclave in the area, boosting the appeal of the Civic District and attracting visitor catchment and foot traffic. This in turn will generate higher retail demand and interest in the precinct. While average rental rents could see downward pressure, prime retail rents are likely to stay firm: Average prime retail rents across Singapore are likely to remain stable in the next few quarters despite tentative signs of early strains in the overall average retail rents across Singapore.
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