ran nvestment TURQUOISE Monthly April & May 2010 Volume 4, No 43-44 PARTNERS
THIS MONTH
Market Overview 2 Over the course of March and April, the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) performed strongly and hit a 3-year record high in trade volumes, due to further gains in global prices of commodities and crude oil in March. However, towards the end of April, and in line with a downturn in global commodities market, the TSE showed signals of a trend reversal.
Turquoise Iran Equity Investments 5 This section provides data and charts on the performance of all portfolios of Turquoise Iran Equity Investments for the month of April.
Country Overview 7 Iran’s state budget for the new Iranian Calendar year and the government’s plans to reduce Tehran’s population will be discussed in this section.
Economy 9 Iran’s Economy in 1388, the new foreign investment law, Tejarat Bank’s credit rating and the South Pars field Euro bonds will be covered in this section.
Iran Investment Monthly is produced by Turquoise Partners, No. 17 East Gord Alley, Turquoise Partners. Distributed electroni- Bidar St., Fayyazi (Fereshteh) Ave. cally by exclusive subscription. Tel :+98 21 220 35 830 Fax :+98 21 220 49 260 Chief Editor: Ramin Rabii Email : [email protected] Consulting Editor: Eddie Kerman To find out more about Turquoise Partners, Authors: Shervin Shahriari visit our website at: Ali Mashayekhi www.turquoisepartners.com. Iran Khodro’s Production Line in Tehran , Iran ‘s Largest Car Manufacturer , Iran ‘s Largest Tehran Production Line in Iran Khodro’s © 2010 All rights reserved Iran Investment Monthly, Volume 4, No. 43-44 $520 million,50%lowerthanthepreviousmonthbut225%higherMarch2009. Overall, the TSE All-Share Indexgained7.8%invalueMarch. Trade volumesamountedtoapproximately trades inMarch. presence ofindividualinvestorsinthemarket.Institutionalaccountedforlessthan50% as themainreasonsforpriceralliesin TSE. A notableobservationfromthismonthwasthestrong Improvements inglobaleconomicdataandgainsthepricesofcrudeoilcommoditieswereassessed the year. performance inMarchsince2003. Trade volumeswerealsoconsiderablyhigherthanusualforthistimeof the Market Overview crude oilandcommodities. The bullishsentimentofthemarketquicklydissipatedandpro In the bubbles arenowevidentinanumberofstocks. However, someanalystsargue thatsomeoftherecenttradeshavebeenaspeculativenatureandprice assessed asoneofthereasonsforstrongperformanceIranianmarketoverpast6 months. parallel investmentmarkets,suchastherealestatemarket,intoequitymarkethastakenplace. This was related authoritiestopromotethecapitalmarket. As aresult,considerabledisplacementofcapitalfrom highest levelfor3years.Overthepastfewmonths,therehasbeenaconcertedeffort bythegovernmentand In April, the TSE experiencedoneofitsstrongestmonthlyperformances. Trade volumesalsoreachedtheir 2010 April 2010 in March,astheIranianNew Year (whichbeganon21 In March,the Tehran StockExchangebuckeditshistoricaltrend.Everyyear, tradingactivitytendstofall 2010 March 2010 2003, SADRA hadfailedtoobtain any majorcontractsfrom thegovernment.However, the transfer oil rigs,and isverymuchdependent onthegovernmentto wincontracts.Since itsprivatisationin share priceincreaseover thepasttwomonths.SADRA specialisesinbuilding ships,docksand gained 30%invalue March and49%in April. IranMarineIndustriesCo.(SADRA) enjoyed a95% This sectorwasthebest performingsectorofthemarketoverpast twomonths. The sectorindex Engineering &Services Some ofthekeysectorsmarketwillbeanalysed below: showing a160%increasefromMarch. Overall, the TSE All-Share Indexgained8.2%invalue April. Trade volumesstoodat$1.35billion, Group, TabrizRe Among thecompanieslistedforprivatisation,Iran Air, IsfahanZob Ahan (ironsmelting),HomaHotels calendar year. This year’s listissubstantiallylarger and morediversi On 11 of itsgainsin April. in increasedsellingpressurecommodityrelatedstocks.Inthisoneweek,the TSE mainindexlost0.8% fi nancial year-end formorethan80%ofcompanieslistedonthe TSE. This year, the TSE haditsbest th fi April, theIranianPrivatizationOrganization publishedits privatisation listforthenewIranian nal weekof April, the TSE experiencedatrendreversal,inlinewiththefallsglobalpricesof fi nery, PostBankandDanaInsurancearethemostimportant. st March)approaches. The calendaryear-end isalso fi ed thanthoseofthepreviousyears. fi t takingresulted fl 2 oating Market Overview 3
of its management control last year from Melli Bank to a subsidiary of the Revolutionary Guards has proven beneficial to the company. SADRA has managed to secure a series of contracts worth $7 billion in the South Pars oil field. In addition, interest on its bank loans of $300 million and other debts will be frozen for 1 year.
Automotive News about the sale by the government of 2 blocks of shares of Iran Khodro and Saipa, Iran’s two major car manufacturers, sparked huge interest in this sector. The sector index gained 11% in value in March and 18% in April. However, in the third week of April, the government postponed the sale of the blocks. This resulted in the buying demand quickly turning into significant selling pressure, and the shares of Iran Khodro and Saipa plunged for the rest of the month.
The automotive sector in Iran is now on the verge of becoming a loss making sector. The sale price of domestically made cars has been frozen by the government for the past 5 years, while production costs have risen sharply. The weighted average price to earnings ratio of the sector is 3.2.
Steel and Iron Ore Companies in these two sectors were among the best performers of the past two months. Over the course of March, billet, a key product for steel manufacturing, experienced a 33% price increase on the Iranian Mercantile Exchange (IME). Following the liberalisation of the price of iron ore last year, the iron ore price is now pegged to the price of steel. This means that iron ore producers can also benefit from steel price hikes.
The downturn in global markets in April had its impact on the steel and iron ore sectors too. In the second half of April, the price of steel products fell by an average of 15% on the IME. Not surprisingly, the stocks of companies in these two sectors experienced selling pressure towards the end of the month.
Cement In April, cement was accepted for trading on the IME. This was deemed as a major development for the cement sector, as it brings transparency to the pricing of cement and eliminates black market activity. However, there was little reaction to this development on the TSE. The cement sector has been out of favour with investors for some time for two main reasons. Firstly, the slowdown in the real estate market has made business conditions more difficult for cement producers. Secondly, in the view of many analysts, the removal of energy subsidies poses the highest risk to the cement sector. The cement sector is heavily dependent on energy. In the case of the more dated production plants, the cost of energy comprises up to 25% of production costs.
Volume 4, No. 43-44 Volume The cement sector’s weighted average price to earnings ratio is 4.4, with a number of companies trading at earnings multiples in the region of 3.
Petrochemical Khark Petrochemical, the largest listed petrochemical company by market capitalisation, appears to be the first victim of the subsidies removal plan. In its budget for the new financial year, Khark has reflected Iran Investment Monthly, a 150% increase in the price of its feedstock (sour gas). This has resulted in a 23% decline in its earnings forecast, in comparison to the previous year. The company, however, has indicated that it has appealed against the decision of the government. Despite the sharp increase in the price of feedstock, Khark remains Iran Investment Monthly, Volume 4, No. 43-44 Market Overview a highlypro enormously sincethen. and apricetoearningsratioof4.8. The IranianOTCopenedfortradinginSeptember 2009andhasgrown market. 10%ofthiscompanywassoldonthemarketday, atamarketcapitalisationof$160million On 15 OTC Market around theworld. 11800 12200 12600 13000 13400 13800 14200 14600 th
March,IranianLeasingCo.becamethe4
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Performance All-Share of TSE Index ( March April & 2010)
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1 0 Iran Investment Monthly, Volume 4, No. 43-44 Turquoise IranEquityInvestments re-based to 100 re-based to 100 returns, withgreaterdiversi on the Tehran StockExchange(TSE)andotherIranian-based securities. The goalistoprovidesuperior in theworld. Turquoise combinesinternationalexperiencewithlocalexpertiseininvestingequitieslisted investing intheconsumerandcommoditypotentialofIran,onemostundervaluedemerging markets Investment Objective– 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 01 June2009 Launch Date British Virgin Islands Vehicle Domicile 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 otoi w Oe) NAV =134.7 Portfolio Two (Open) Portfolio OnePerformance(IranianRial)- As at30 Portfolio Two Performance (Euro)- As at30 Iran Vehicle Domicile otoi n Coe) NAV = 197.8 Portfolio One(Closed)
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1 0 Last 12Months Last 12Months Since Inception Since Inception Last 6Months Last 3Months Last 3Months Last 6Months Period Period (01 June09) (30 May 06) Last Month Last Month Minimum Investment Iranian Rial(IRR) Portfolio Return Portfolio Return 34.7 % 20.6 % 14.8 % 21.2 % 97.8 % 49.1 % 18.3 % 4.6 % 7.5 % N/A Currency Currency €100,000 Euro (€) 5 Iran Investment Monthly, Volume 4, No. 43-44 Turquoise IranEquityInvestments Partners pleasevisitour website at:www.turquoisepartners.com 20 74930412oremail [email protected] informationabout Turquoise For subscriptionandfurther informationonourinvestmentproductsplease contactEddieKermanon(+44) re-based to 100 re-based to 100 1,000.00 1,075.00 1,150.00 1,225.00 1,300.00 1,375.00 1,000.00 1,050.00 1,100.00 1,150.00 Class DPerformance(Euro,Inc.Dividend)- As at30 Class CPerformance(Euro,Inc.Dividend)- As at30 British Virgin Islands Vehicle Domicile British Virgin Islands Vehicle Domicile ls Coe) NAV =1026.3 Class D(Closed) NAV =1044.3 Class C(Closed)
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1 0 Last 12Months Since Inception Last 12Months Since Inception Last 6Months Last 3Months Last 6Months Last 3Months Period Period (30 June08) (10 July07) Last Month Last Month Portfolio Return Portfolio Return 22.4 % 24.6 % 19.5 % 10.6 % 23.2 % 10.4 % 23.3 % 6.8 % 3.4 % 3.7 % Currency Currency Euro (€) Euro (€) 6 Country Overview 7
Iran’s state budget for the fiscal year 1389 and the government’s plans to reduce Tehran’s population will be covered in this edition of Country Overview.
In March, Iran’s state budget for the calendar year 1389 (which began on 21st March) was approved by the parliament. After a year of budget reductions and the tightening of economic policies in 1388, the government is once again planning to implement expansionary economic and fiscal policies. This is clearly evident from the rise in this year’s budget.
The draft budget formulated by the government was at $368 billion. This figure was based on $40 billion of proceeds from the removal of energy subsidies, as proposed by the government. However, after the parliament approved a maximum figure of $20 billion from the proceeds of the removal of subsidies, the state budget was also revised accordingly.
The approved total budget stands at $347 billion, an increase of approximately 18% from last year. Of this amount, $129 billion (37% of the total) is the government’s general budget and the remaining $218 billion is allocated to state-owned companies and banks, and other governmental organisations.
The sale price of crude oil has been set at $65 per barrel, at the US Dollar conversion rate of 9,850 Rials. Last year, the crude oil price was set at $37.5 per barrel and the US Dollar exchange rate in the budget was 9,500 Rials. This means that oil revenues will comprise 47% of the government’s general budget. Revenues from taxes are expected to amount to $31 billion (24% of the government general budget). This means that expected tax revenues are 19% higher than those in the previous year’s budget. In 2008, the government implemented a series of changes to the tax regime, which have resulted in increased tax revenues and more efficient collection of corporation tax. Revenues from the privatisation programme are expected to total $12.5 billion.
A notable feature of this year’s budget is an emphasis on the issuance of bonds for infrastructure and industry development. The budget law, as approved by the parliament, allows the government and related institutions to issue up to €11.5 billion of Sukuk (Islamic bonds) internationally for the development of the oil and gas, petrochemical, and mining sectors, as well as other industries. It also allows for the ministries and municipalities to issue up to $11 billion of participation papers domestically. Furthermore, the government can withdraw up to $1.5 billion from the National Development Fund (which has replaced the Oil Surplus Fund this year) for investment in the oil and gas sector, foreign exchange commitments and the repayment of debt to state-owned banks.
In April, the government published a mandate announcing plans to reduce the population of Tehran by 5 million. The plan is to transfer the population from Tehran to nearby cities such as Hashtgerd, Pardis and Parand by offering incentives such as loans and low cost housing.
Volume 4, No. 43-44 Volume There are a number of reasons for this decision. An important factor is the possibility of an earthquake occurring in Tehran. According to a recent report from the Building & Housing Research Center, the north and north-east of the capital are situated on earthquake fault lines. The report indicates that if an earthquake with the strength of 7 or above on the Richter scale were to happen in Tehran, approximately 30% of all buildings would be destroyed and the number of casualties could be as high as 100,000. Other reasons include the heavy traffic congestion and air pollution, which at times reach hazardous levels. Currently, approximately 8 million people
Iran Investment Monthly, live in Tehran and another 4-5 million commute into the city on a daily basis. With a population density of 10.5 per square kilometer, Tehran is considered to be a city with a fairly high population density. Cities like London and Madrid have a population density of approximately 5.5 per square kilometer. Country Overview 8
The incentives offered by the government for those relocating from Tehran include salary increases of up to 50%, loans with low interest rates, healthcare and insurance benefits, and priority in the Mehr low-cost housing projects. The government plans to transfer social and economic facilities to these new cities so that concentration moves away from the capital. Governmental offices, universities and hospitals are to open branches in these cities. In addition, a number of ministries are also to be transferred to the city of Parand, which is located 35 kilometers south-west of Tehran. Estimates suggest that with the ongoing Mehr housing projects and other private construction plans, these 3 cities will be able to accommodate 1 million of Tehran’s population within one year.
One major challenge in the successful implementation of the plan is the under-developed infrastructure and the limited access to welfare and social services within these new, currently lowly-populated cities. This year, there has been a 60% increase in the state budget for infrastructure development. However, it may take several years for these small cities to reach adequate levels of social and public services in order to attract migrants from Tehran. This, in itself, may delay the plan.
This plan has its critics too. They argue that historically, other countries which have made such an attempt have not enjoyed high success rates and even in the best case scenarios, have been able to change the location of their political and/or economic capital. Another concern is the possible effect of this plan in that rural citizens may move to Tehran and then request a transfer in order to benefit from the plan’s incentives.
The plan is currently under review and further details are expected in the near future. Volume 4, No. 43-44 Volume Iran Investment Monthly, Iran Investment Monthly, Volume 4, No. 43-44 Economy (which endedon20 Below isasummaryofsomekeystatisticsandeconomicindicatorsfortheIraniancalendaryear1388 Iran’s Economyin1388 bring in contractionary economicpoliciesandthetighteningofmonetarypolicybyCentralBankinorderto The latestestimatesindicatethateconomicgrowthfellfrom2.6%in1387to2.1%1388. The government’s Economic Growth, In 5 importersofnon-oilIraniangoodswereIraq,China,theUAE,Indiaand Afghanistan. previous year. Total exportsofcrudeoil,naturalgasandotherby-productsstoodat$71billion. The top Iran’s totalnon-oilandgasexportsin1388amountedto$16billion,adeclineof12%comparisonthe respectively. previous year. The top5exporterstoIranweretheUAE,China,Germany, SouthKoreaandSwitzerland In 1388,Iran’s totalimportsamountedto$47billion,whichshowsadeclineof16%incomparisonthe Imports andExports: In linewiththeabove,in Fund from thisyear) at$15billion. This shows adecline of40%from lastyear. Also, the CentralBank’s The latestestimates putthetotalfunds intheOilSurplusFund (which willbecometheNational Development Foreign ReservesandForeign Debt: day, unchanged fromthepreviousyear. Approximately 62%of theoilproducedwasexported. price in1387was$94per barrel.In1388,Iran’s averagecrudeoilproduction stoodat4millionbarrelsper previous year. The averagesaleprice ofIraniancrudeoilin1388was$64perbarrel,whereas theaverage Revenues fromthesaleofcrudeoilin1388stood at$55billion,whichshowsa29%declinefromthe Revenues from CrudeOil: unemployment rateattheendof1387was10.8%. According totheStatisticalCentreofIran,unemployment rateasattheendof1388stood11.1%. The fi the governmentisplanningtostimulateeconomicgrowthbyinjectingmoreliquidityintoeconomy. The liquidity towardstheendofyearisreasonforincreasein However, inthelast3monthsofIranianyear, in growth rateintheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)fellfrom17.8%atendof1387to7.4%November. gure belowshowstheyear-on-year CPIgrowthforeachmonthof1388: fl ation downwereassessedasthemainreasonsforslowdownineconomicgrowth. 15.5% p a u u u e c o e a e Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr th March 2010). fl ation andUnemployment: 15.0% fl ation ratecontinuedonitsdecliningtrendfromthepreviousyear. The annual 14.5% 14.0% 13.1% 9.3% fl ation climbedbackto10.8%. A growthinexcess 7.6% .%7.4% 7.4% fl ation rate. This alsosignalsthat 7.8% 8.9% 10.4% 9 Iran Investment Monthly, Volume 4, No. 43-44 Economy In April, Tejarat BankbecameIran’s 3 Tejarat BankCredit Rating operational procedureswillbeputinplacethenearfuture. The newby-lawiscurrentlyunderreviewbytherelevantauthorities,andnecessaryregulations and addition, thresholdsonforeignownershipinlistedcompanieshavebeenincreased. law. This means thatforeigninvestorswillbeablemovetheircapitaloutofIranwithoutanyrestrictions.In 3-year lockupoftheinvestedcapital,asstatedinexistingregulations,willberemovedundernew as theCentralBankguaranteeofavailabilityhardcurrencyuponrepatriationfunds.Secondly, the no longerbemandatory. However, itisadvisableasoffers aseriesofprotectionstoforeigninvestors,such Firstly, obtainingaforeigninvestment license(FIPPA) priortoinvestingonthe Tehran StockExchangewill a numberofrestrictionsundertheexistinglawshavebeenremoved. view ofexperts,isamajorstepforwardinattractingforeigninvestmentintotheIraniancapitalmarkets,as In April, anewforeigninvestmentby-lawwasapprovedbytheIraniangovernment. The newby-law, inthe New Foreign InvestmentLaw period in1387. (Dec 09),Iran’s totalforeigndebtstoodat$14.5billion. This showsa35%fallincomparisontothesame According totheCentralBank’s statistics,asattheendofthirdquarterIraniancalendaryear1388 previous year. Foreign Reservesareestimatedtobe$90billionattheendof1388,whichshowsa5%increasefrom credit ratingagencyhasassigned Tejarat a fi a stableoutlook. This puts Tejarat belowtheothertworatedIranian banks,bothofwhichweregivena likelihood of The proceedsfromtheissuancewillbeusedfor developmentofphases15to18theSouthPars tranches. Two moretranchesof€250millioneachareexpectedtobeissuedbytheendyear. fi In Marchand April, theParsOilandGasCompany, oneofthekeydevelopersinSouthParsOil andGas South ParsFieldEuro Bonds assigned asovereignratingofB+toIran,butlaterwithdrewitsrating. of whicharethehighestspeculativegrades.Currently, Irandoesnothaveasovereignrating.In2007,Fitch CI hasalsoassignedIranwithalongtermandshortcurrencyratingofBBBrespectively, both most likelyand5theleastlikely. and severalotherIranianbanks. The bondshaveatenureof3 yearsandpayanannualcouponof8%. and theunderwriterforthesebonds. The placementtookplacethrough22internationalbranchesofMellat The bondsareguaranteedbytheNationalIranian OilCompany(NIOC).BankMellatistheplacementagent nancial strengthratingofBB+. Tejarat hasalsobeengivenasupportratingof3.Supportratingsre eld inthePersianGulf,successfullyplaced€500million ofEurodenominatedbondsinternationallyintwo fi nancial assistancefromtheCentralBankorStateincaseofdif rd banktoreceiveacreditratingfromCapitalIntelligence(CI). The fi nancial strengthratingofB+(equivalentS&P)and fi culties, with1beingthe fl 10 ect the fi eld. Iran Investment Monthly, Volume 4, No. 43-44 This publicationdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceandmaymatchthe and inaccuracy. fi is madetoensurethatthefactswepublisharecorrect.However, wedonotrepresentthatallfactsand The analysisprovidedbythispublicationisbasedoninformationthatweconsiderreliableandevery effort an offer tobuy anyspeci This materialisforinformationpurposesonlyanddoesnotconstituteanoffer tosell,norasolicitationof Disclaimer only orthroughanonlinerequestsentto:[email protected] worked closelyorhavebeenincontactwith Turquoise Partners.Subscriptiontothisnewsletterisbyreferral Tehran StockExchangeaswellintroducingnew cipients updatedonthelatestmacroeconomicdevelopmentsinIran,providinganin-depthanalysisof Iran Investment Monthly Investment Iran ates Turquoise isaboutiqueinvestment About Turquoise potential investors. consent of Turquoise Partners. mechanical, photocopies, recordingorbyanyinformationstorageretrieval systemwithoutpriorwritten No partofthisnewsletter maybereproducedortransmittedinanyform orbyanymeanselectronic, Copyright Notice future success. all investors. The valueofaninvestmentcangodownaswell asup.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeof circumstances ofsomeitsrecipients. The securitiesdiscussedinthispublicationmaynotbesuitablefor Iranian market.Havingaquali Turquoise tobene Turquoise publishesthiselectronicnewsletter, gures arecompleteandaccurate;therefore,wecannotbeheldlegallyresponsibleforerrors,emissions fi nancial productsandoffers fi t fromcouplinglocalknowledgeandpresencewithglobalexpertise. fi isdistributedexclusivelyamongstIrananalystsandpotentialinvestorswhohave c shares. fi ed anddiversemanagementteambasedbothinEuropeIranenables fi nancial servicestoselectclientsandinvestorswhoareinterestedinthe fi rm basedinIranwithof Iran Investment Monthly Investment Iran fi nancial productsandprivateequityopportunitiesto fi ces in Tehran andLondon. Turquoise cre- , withtheaimofkeepingitsre- fi nancial 11