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RLF-SCRSS Iran Conference Nov2010 روزا آرغ Rosa Luxemburg Foundation in Egypt The Iranian nuclear prproooogram:gram: Alternatives to SSanctionsanctions Contributions to a conference organized by Al Sharq CentCentrrrreeee for Research and Strategic Studies (SCRSS) and the Rosa LuxemburLuxemburgg Foundation (RLF) 13 November 2010 American University in Cairo TTTABLE OF CCCONTENT IRAN'S NUCLEAR FILE: WHAT’S BEYOND SANCTSANCTIONS?IONS? 333 SSSHARQ NNNAMEH ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AANDND THEIR IMPACT ON TTHEHE NUCLEAR DECISDECISIONIONION----MAKINGMAKING PROCESS IN IRAN 555 MUSTAFA EL-LABBAD THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF U.S. AND INTERNATINTERNATIONALIONAL SANCTIONS ON IIRANRAN 111111 AAAHMAD AAALLL---S-SSSAYYED AAALLL---N-NNNAGGAR THE INTERNATIONAL DIDIFFERENCESFFERENCES REGARDING SANCTIONS ON IIRANRAN (USA, EU, RUSSIARUSSIA,, CHINA) 181818 HHHENNER FFFÜRTIG IRAN SANCTIONS: REPEREPERCUSSIONSRCUSSIONS ON ARAB GUGULFLF STATES 272727 TTTALAL AAATRISSI THE POSITION OF NEIGNEIGHBORINGHBORING COUNTRIES WIWITHTH REGARDS TO SANCTISANCTIONSONS ON IRAN: AN ANALYANALYSISSIS OF THE POSITIONS OF SAUDI ARABIA, TUTURKEYRKEY AND EGYPT 353535 MMMOHAMED SSSAID IIIDRIES IMPACTS OF A CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT OF HORHORMUZMUZ ON THE WORLD ENEENERGYRGY MARKET 424242 AAAMR KKKAMAL HHHAMOUDA MILITARY STRIKE AGAIAGAINSTNST IRAN'S NUCLEAR FACILITIES: FEATURESFEATURES,, CHALLENGES AND IMPIMPACTACT 484848 SSSAFWAT AAAL ZZZAYYAT OBAMA AND IRAN: THE FAILURE OF INADEQUATINADEQUATEE DIPLOMACY 626262 TTTRITA PPPARSI COMMENTS ON THE PAPEPAPERR BY TRITA PARSI GEOPOLITICGEOPOLITICALAL DIMENSIONS OF A UUSSSS----IRANIANIRANIAN AGREEMENT 656565 AAALLL---S-SSSHARQ CCCENTRE FOR RRREGIONAL AND SSSTRATEGIC SSSTUDIES LIST OF AUTHORS 696969 Iran: Alternatives to Sanctions 2 Iran's nuclear file: what’s beyond sanctions? Various international and regional issues of concern little over or less than a year to take a final decision. surface and disappear. However, the Iranian nuclear In his paper, the German expert on the Middle East, file and the ongoing negotiations surrounding it be- Henner Fürtig, discussed the contradicting interna- tween Iran and six major powers, sometimes fades tional positions with regard to economic sanctions on for a short while, only to appear again as the number Iran against the backdrop of the national interests of one issue on international and regional agendas. Iran each party, while the Lebanese expert on Iranian and is keeping the whole world busy, attracting attention regional affairs, Talal Atrisi, analyzed the regional in the region, and dividing people between those who reactions related to sanctions imposed on Iran, cover- are in support of its nuclear and regional ambitions ing specifically Iraq and the Gulf countries. For his and those who are hostile to Iran as an entity and also part, Muhammad al-Saeed Idris, an Egyptian expert in as a regional player. Iranian affairs addressed Turkish, Egyptian and Saudi Arabian reactions on the sanctions. The Egyptian Seeking neutral answers, and in order to shed light expert in energy affairs Amr Kamal Hammouda ad- on this heated issue that is high on regional and in- dressed in his paper the impact of closing the Hor- ternational agendas, Al-Sharq Centre for Regional and muz Strait in case of military operations on the flow Strategic Studies organized a seminar in cooperation of energy resources from the Gulf to the global mar- with the Department of Middle East Studies, at the ket. Brigadier General Safwat El Zayat, a well-known East Hall of the American University in Cairo, on No- military expert, discussed in detail the "military strike vember 13, 2010, with the participation of a distin- option on Iran's nuclear facilities", and clarified the guished number of researchers and specialists from general features, constraints and impacts of such a Egypt and from other Arab and Western countries. strike. The seminar was concluded with a paper pre- The seminar attempted to seek answers to key ques- pared by Trita Parsi, President of the Iranian-American tions related to this issue, such as: What is the impact Council in Washington, which covered the failed of economic sanctions on the Iranian economy and wrong diplomacy of Obama against Iran. The Sharq the nuclear decision-making process in Iran? What Centre for Regional and Strategic Studies presented a are the regional and international responses to these comment on the objective reasons for a US-Iranian sanctions, their motives and their background? What agreement. are the implications of a military escalation against Iran and can the effects on the global economy re- Economic sanctions imposed on Iran under UN Secu- sulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz be rity Council resolutions 1737, 1747, 1803 and 1929 predicted? The seminar concluded with a paper es- have contributed to the increased level of tensions. pecially prepared to answer the 4 th central question, At the current level, there are only two key scenarios, that is: Why would prospects of a US-Iranian agree- either a military strike against Iran, or a US-Iranian ment open up and on what grounds? In any case, it is agreement. In the midst of the existing polarization in a scenario that should not be excluded from the dis- the region among supporters and opponents of Iran, cussions, in spite of the current state of tension exist- it shouldn't be forgotten that Iran is a major country in ing in US-Iranian tensions. the Middle East and that it is also a historic entity with a presence of thousands of years that has In his paper, Ahmad el-Naggar, an economic expert helped shape the cultural and civilizational identity of from Egypt, discussed the economic impact of US the region. Therefore, we, as Arabs, should deal with and international sanctions on Iran. He concluded Iran seriously as an ambitious, historic and neighbor- that economic sanctions, at its current level, cannot ing regional player, a reality that proves its presence compel Iran to bow to western demands with regard in the existing vacuum in the region, and as a to its nuclear file. Mustafa el-Labbad, an Egyptian neighbor that we either agree or disagree with. Per- researcher, studied the impact of economic sanctions haps the first step is to distance ourselves from the on the nuclear decision making process in Iran. He prevailing binaries of "opposing/supporting" Iran by concluded that the Iranian negotiator has, until now, attempting to understand the Iranian setting with all proven to be very skilful and that Iran has taken big of its internal, regional and international complexities. strides towards acquiring peaceful nuclear capabili- An analysis of all these aspects has become a politi- ties. In addition, he stated that, in reality, the current cal necessity par excellence and not simply an aca- US administration has to make one of two choices: demic concern for some specialists and experts any either undertake a military strike with its severe re- more. This is the importance of scientific confer- percussions, or conclude a US-Iranian agreement. ences: they objectively break down a complicated According to him, the US administration will require a Iran: Alternatives to Sanctions 3 phenomenon, draw the line between the phenome- posed to the Arab world watching the current setting non and its origins, and then reassemble it after hav- without taking any action to preserve their own inter- ing analyzed its causes - a process through which the ests and leaving the space vacant for foreign, non- phenomenon becomes clearer. regional forces to decide on the region's fate and future. In line with Iranian tradition, one would seek The Iranian nuclear file reflects overwhelming re- wisdom from Iran's famous poet, Hafez al-Shirazi, gional ambitions and two extreme scenarios: a mili- when the obscure future is difficult to explore. If we tary strike, in the worst case scenario for the region, close our eyes and dig deep into Hafez's poems, we or US-Iranian understandings. Both will lead to a simi- can find the answer with regard to the Arab future in lar end result: a sharp and profound change in the the new balance of power in the Middle East: new balance of power in the Middle East. By organiz- ing this conference in Cairo, Sharq Nameh hopes to EEEternity,Eternity, all the way through, has been divided in oourur give an impetus for increased Egyptian and Arab en- absence… gagement in the Iranian issue from the overarching You aren’t to be blamed for the discontent of those perspective of Arab interests. This is necessary be- with the smallest share. cause the level of such engagement will either posi- tively or negatively determine Arab presence in the Sharq Nameh region in the coming period, when combined with an Arab willingness to shape their political will, as op- Iran: Alternatives to Sanctions 4 EconEconomicomic ssanctionsanctions and their impact on the nuclear decisiondecision----makingmaking process in Iran Mustafa ElEl----LabbadLabbadLabbad, Director of Al-Sharq Centre for Regional and Strategic Studies in Cairo and Editor-in-Chief of the journal Sharq nameh. "Economic sanctions" on Iran has become a term the structure of Iran's foreign trade directly leads us heavily used by research centers, the media and in to conclude that an oil embargo on Iran will lead to political corridors, although there is no internationally catastrophic results. This is because oil is the most shared agreement on the economic meaning of "eco- important export commodity in Iran, and represents nomic sanctions" and their political feasibility. The between 80-90 percent of Iran's exports. In addition, internal logic of sanctions is based on the political use oil exports constitute 40 – 50 % of Iranian state reve- of economic laws to prevent the sanctioned country nues. 3 However, on the other hand, withholding the from adopting certain positions. Thus this logic is approximately 6.2 million barrels per day, currently based on the assumption that the political leadership exported by Iran, from world markets is likely to lead in the concerned country will surrender - at a certain to serious repercussions on the world oil market, point – under external pressures simply because of its making an oil embargo an unrealistic option.
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