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Mission Impossible Genuine Economic Development in The Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States Mission impossible? Genuine economic development in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries Duha Al-Kuwari September 2013 Number 33 The Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States is a ten-year multidisciplinary global research programme. It focuses on topics such as globalization and the repositioning of the Gulf States in the global order, capital flows, and patterns of trade; specific challenges facing carbon-rich and resource-rich economic development; diversification, educational and human capital development into post-oil political economies; and the future of regional security structures in the post-Arab Spring environment. The Programme is based in the LSE Department of Government and led by Professor Danny Quah. The Programme produces an acclaimed working paper series featuring cutting-edge original research on the Gulf, published an edited volume of essays in 2011, supports post-doctoral researchers and PhD students, and develops academic networks between LSE and Gulf institutions. At the LSE, the Programme organizes a monthly seminar series, invitational breakfast briefings, and occasional public lectures, and is committed to five major biennial international conferences. The first two conferences took place in Kuwait City in 2009 and 2011, on the themes of Globalisation and the Gulf, and The Economic Transformation of the Gulf. The Programme is funded by the Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences. www.lse.ac.uk/LSEKP/ Mission Impossible? Genuine Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Research Paper, Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States Duha Al-Kuwari Visiting Fellow Middle East Centre London School of Economics and Political Science [email protected] Copyright © Duha Al-Kuwari 2013 The right of Duha Al-Kuwari to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Published in 2013. All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purposes of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of Duha Al-Kuwari. The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and not necessarily those of London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) or the Kuwait Programme on Development, Governance and Globalisation in the Gulf States. Neither Duha Al-Kuwari nor LSE accepts any liability for loss or damage incurred as a result of the use of or reliance on the content of this publication. Mission Impossible? Genuine Economic Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries DUHA AL-KUWARI Abstract The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is considered one of the most important regional entities in the world. It provides a framework for stability regarding world oil and gas supplies and facilitates great wealth from oil and gas exports. After more than thirty years of promises from GCC countries, however, how does oil and gas wealth impact actual economic development, particularly in the non-oil economy and private sector? This study highlights the existence of economic development in the GCC states in three aspects: the current demographic structure, economic growth and diversification, and the role of private sector development. The analysis shows that an unbalanced population structure causes a great drain on national income and turns the national population into a minority in some of the GCC states. Furthermore, the GCC countries’ economy still depends heavily on oil revenue, resulting in public sector domination. As a result, the private sector is underdeveloped and still does not exert significant influence on economic development. The study concludes that, in spite of the declaration of the GCC articles of association regarding the link between development and integration, the GCC is still far from demonstrating real long-term development. 1. INTRODUCTION When the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was established between six Arab oil-exporting countries located in the Arab Peninsula in 1981, its primary aim was to achieve socio- economic development and cooperation, which would eventually lead to economic integration, as declared in its articles of association. Among the stated objectives are the following (GCC Secretariat General 2013): to formulate similar regulations in various fields, such as religion, finance, trade, customs, tourism, legislation and administration; to foster scientific and technical progress in industry, mining, agriculture, water and animal resources; to establish scientific research centres; to set up joint ventures; I would like to acknowledge the helpful comments and suggestions of Dr Kristian Coates Ulrichsen. I would also like to thank Professor Danny Quah, Director of the Kuwait Programme, for his valuable feedback. Finally, I would like to thank Ian Sinclair, Administrator of the Programme. I am very grateful to the Middle East Centre in the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) for hosting me as a research fellow. I extend my gratitude to Qatar University for granting me sabbatical leave to carry on my research in the LSE. to establish a unified military presence (Peninsula Shield Force); to encourage the cooperation of the private sector; to strengthen ties among the peoples of the gulf region; and to establish a common currency. An additional driver for the establishment of the GCC was the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and the widespread concern about Iran’s ambition to dominate the region and spread the Islamic revolution into the Arabian Gulf. Another important motive behind the creation of the GCC was to enhance the collective security of member states in the face of the Iran–Iraq War, which had begun a year earlier. The rulers of the Gulf States proposed the GCC, and the people of the region welcomed it, seeking a framework of political reform, economic development and integration, bearing in mind that the oil-producing states of the Arab Peninsula are part of the Arab world and have similar history, social roots, circumstances and demographic features. After more than three decades, however, the people’s hopes have not been realized. Although several suggestions have been made to the GCC government regarding the goal of attaining economic development and integration, there are still no indications that political reform and real economic development have been achieved in most of the GCC states. This paper discusses a number of critical economic weaknesses within the GCC states that, although highlighted over the decades of the GCC’s existence, have worsened in the most recent past. It is important to highlight these weaknesses now in the light of a number of possible risk factors. These include consequences of events in the Arab spring; Iran’s nuclear threat and its ambition to dominate the Arabian Gulf and the whole region, which have increased greatly since the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 and will not be ended by sending their troops against the Syrian uprising; combined with the American plan to establish the New Middle East – all of which signal an urgent demand not only for economic reform but also for security. This paper highlights economic weaknesses in terms of three aspects: demography (Section 2), economic statutes (Section 3) and the private sector (Section 4). The study concludes that population structure has presented a dilemma that has resulted in a large drain on the national income and has turned the national population into a minority in some GCC states. Furthermore, the economies of the Gulf States still depend heavily on oil revenues, resulting in public sector domination. As a result, the private sector is underdeveloped and has yet to establish an influential impact on economic development. The study concludes that, in 2 spite of the intent declared in the GCC articles of association regarding development and integration, the GCC is still far from initiating real long-term development. 2. DEMOGRAPHY The combined population of the six GCC countries grew from nearly 10 million in 1975 to around 44 million by the end of 2010 (Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf 2013). Saudi Arabia, by far the largest GCC country, accounted for around 62 per cent of the population in 2010, with an estimated 28 million people (Figure 1). The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was the second most populated GCC state, accounting for around 19 per cent or above 8 million people. The distribution of the total GCC population was estimated at 6 per cent in each of Oman and Kuwait, 4 per cent in Qatar and 3 per cent in Bahrain (Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf 2013). The fast and sudden population growth witnessed by the GCC represents an increase of more than 300 per cent in less than forty years (Table 1). This growth coincides with the oil boom and is associated with the phenomenon of labour migration, which accounted for 46 per cent of the total GCC population in 2010 and almost 62 per cent of the total labour force (Forstenlechner and Rutledge 2011). The phenomenon of labour migration in the Arabian Gulf commenced during the 1940s with the discovery of oil in the region, but it highlighted a problem during the first oil boom in 1973. Subsequent to the first (1973) and second (1982) oil booms, the dilemma of an unbalanced population structure began and clearly worsened due to high emigration. For example, in 1975, the total population for the six countries was 10 million, of which Figure 1. Population composition among the GCC states, 2010 Bahrain Kuwait Oman United Arab 3% 6% 6% Emirates 19% Qatar 4% Saudi Arabia 62% Source: Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (2013).
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