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The Impact of Historical Conflicts and Cleavages on the Formation of New Political Oppositions in Latvia A Comparison of the Party System which has emerged in the 1990s to that of the 1920s and 30s with respect to continuity and change between the two Democratic Periods in Terms of Political Contrasts and Oppositions. Brita Skuland Institute of Political Science University of Oslo 2005 2 PREFACE At the time I began my thesis in 1992 at the Institute of Political Science, Oslo University, Latvia had restored independence and the first post -Soviet national elections were coming up. My initial interest concerned the inter -war democracy and its collapse in 1934. I was advised to include the outcome of the first post -Soviet elections and draw a line between the inter -war party system and the new one. I chose it as my topic, which I resumed working with in late 2002. The fourth post -Soviet national election had been held in Latvia in autumn 2002; the same number of elections as before the subversion of democracy in 1934. There were few sources about political history in Latvia available in Norwegian libraries in the earl y 1990s. Norges forskningsråd (Norwegian Research Council) sponsored a stay in Riga to look for additional sources. I received invaluable help from the staff at Riga University’s newly founded Institute of Politology. I would name especially head of the institute, Einars Semanis, and professor Feliciana Rajevska, who largely arranged my stay and programme and were generally forthcoming. Directors of the Baltic Institute of Social Science (Baltijas Datu Nams) Aldis Paulins and his successor Brigita Zepa ha ve been very helpful by providing results of post -election polls. There are a number of people in Norway I want to thank for assisting my work in several ways; my supervisors Olav F. Knudsen, then director at the Norwegian Institute of International Affai rs (NUPI), research assistant Arne Kommisrud, and candidate for the doctorate, Herman Smith -Sivertsen, who kindly read and commented on the completed first draft in 2003. Herman generously let me use his private post -election poll material of 1998, prepare d for his doctoral thesis. Thanks to Vigdis Nygaard and Torunn Hasler who carried out own research on Latvian topics in 1992 and 1993, for valuable discussions and cooperation. Not least, thanks to my girlfriend Eva Kristin Friis who has contributed with h er computer - technical skills for the multivariate analysis, and I have received additionally great assistance from Suzanne Schönkopf, former director of CAMO, the developer of the “Unscrambler” statistical programme. 3 ABST RACT Latvia had a brief experience with democracy and party pluralism between 1920 and 1934 when an authoritarian regime took over. After restoration of Latvia’s independence in 1991, a large number of political groups and parties emerged, some re -emerged . The restoration of independence is formally based on the proclamation of independence 18 November 1918 and the Constitution of 1922, and citizenship was restored to Latvian citizens before the Soviet occupation in 1940 and their descendants. The question is: Do cleavages and contrasts that were underlying the structure of political opposition in the 1920s and 1930s re -emerge? Has nearly 50 years of Sovietization and communism, the absence of political contestation and independent political organizations, fundamentally changed the structure of cleavages and produced new conflicts? In the 1960s, Stein Rokkan and Seymour Martin Lipset found that party systems of Western democracies reflected fundamental cleavages that emerged in the course of history, and the party systems “froze” with the full extension of the franchise, leaving a stable system of political alternatives that reflected the most important historical contrasts. This thesis identifies the most profound political contrasts in Latvia between t he wars as national -cultural identity, class and urban/rural residence/economy. The society was based for centuries on a feudal social system where language and culture served as markers of one’s social class. Also, there were a distinct difference between Eastern and “Catholic” Latgale district and “Germanized” Latvia. Religion played an important political role in Latgale. The most significant change in the current party system is the apparent absence of the class conflict in the aftermath of Communism. The Socialist Party is an overwhelmingly “Russian” or “Non -Latvian” party. The development of a new social pluralism and social contrasts may lead to the re -emergence of the class conflict. The salient cleavage since 1990 has a strong ‘nationality’ compone nt and relates to the struggle for restoration of independence, the definition of citizens and the position of the Latvian language and culture. The cleavage has its roots far down in history. The urban/rural contrast is another cleavage that has re -emerge d, while the regional (Latgale) contrast seems to be both less significant, and has changed. In stead of “Catholic”, a stronger “Russian/Non -Latvian” component in the social structure and a poorer “Eastern” economy makes Latgale socially and politically st ill somewhat different from the three other districts. 4 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 7 1.1 Parties and Party Systems: Theoretical Aspects ................................ ........................ 8 1.2 The Case ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 9 1.2.1 Legal and Symbolic Continuity With the Past ................................ ................... 9 2 NATION -BUILDING, DEMOCRATIZATION AND POLITICAL OPPOSITION ..... 13 2.1 Is the cleavage concep t relevant? ................................ ................................ ............. 13 2.2 Party System Perseverance and the Critics of the Freeze Proposition ..................... 14 2.3 Defending the proposition: “Contin uity far outweigh Change” ............................... 15 2.4 Literature and Definitions ................................ ................................ ........................ 16 2.4.1 Cleavages ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 18 2.4.2 Party Systems and Cleavages ................................ ................................ ........... 18 2.4.3 Centre Versus Periphery (Cultural Cleavages) ................................ ................ 19 2.4.4 Conflicts in the Labour and Commodity Market (Economic Cleavages) ........ 19 2.5 ‘Discontinuous Democracies’: Survival of “Old” Oppositions .............................. 20 2.6 The Case ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 22 2.6.1 The Process of Democratization in the Latvian Area and Latvia: an Outline .. 23 2.6.2 Parties and Factions ................................ ................................ .......................... 25 3 METHOD AND DEFINITIONS 26 3.1 Introduction ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 26 3.2 Operationalization of ‘Party’ ................................ ................................ .................... 26 3.3 ‘Cleavage’ ................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 28 3.4 Sou rces ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 29 3.4.1 Election Surveys 1993 - 2002 ................................ ................................ .......... 31 3.4.2 A Multivariate Analysis of the 1998 Survey ................................ .................... 32 3.4.3 Interpretation of the Unscrambler Plots ................................ ........................... 33 4 THE TRANSFORMATION OF CLASS SOCIETIES INTO A NATION -STATE ....... 34 4.1 Introduction ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 34 4.1.1 Modernization in the Baltic Provinces ................................ ............................. 34 4.2 A Double -Faced Stratification System ................................ ................................ ..... 35 4.2.1 Industrialization and Urbanization ................................ ................................ ... 37 4.2.2 Between Great Powers ................................ ................................ ..................... 38 4.2.3 Latgale: A Dominantly Catholic and Multiethnic Region ............................... 38 4.3 Ethnic - and Social Structure in the Interwar Period and Present ............................. 39 4.3.1 The Impact of Religion ................................ ................................ .................... 40 4.3.2 Ethnic Cultural Autonomy ................................ ................................ .............. 41 4.3.3 Ethnic Socio -economic Differentiation ................................ ............................ 42 4.4 Occupations, Annexation and a New Demographic Structure ................................ 43 4.4.1 Bolshevization and Russification ................................ ................................ ..... 44 4.5 New Nation -Building Conflicts ................................ ................................ ............... 45 4.5.1 Language and Education ................................ ................................ .................. 45 4.5.2 Citizens hip ...............................
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