Meet the New PLAAF By Rebecca Grant

hina’s —the People’s force operates numerous advanced air be a clear statement that US forces Liberation Army Air Force— defenses. In the last few years, progress would intervene—and that the PLA has emerged in recent years in doctrine and training has picked up lacked effective capabilities to deter as an upstart competitor in speed. Last but not least, has an or defeat them.” the realm of airpower. “All carrier undergoing sea trials. A June 2012 Center for Strategic Cindicators point to the continued im- Today the new PLAAF is reorga- and International Studies (CSIS) report provement of the PLAAF over the nized, modernized, and in the hunt on Asia stated, “In particular, China next decade, to the point where China for control of the air. realized after the Taiwan confronta- is expected to have one of the world’s tions that it possessed a limited set foremost air forces by 2020,” said the Geopolitical Response of options (short of nuclear US Air Force’s National Air and Space China’s airpower ambitions come ) and that US power projec- Intelligence Center (NASIC) in an from its own direct experience and from tion in the form of aircraft carriers and authoritative 2010 report. observing the success of the US and its long-range precision strike (e.g., B-2 The PLAAF put itself in the head- allies in crafting airpower into an asym- ) to deter Chinese aggression lines around the world by rolling out metric advantage. One major catalyst were insurmountable for the PLA.” the J-20 with its first public in for change was the 1996 Taiwan Strait China entered the second decade January 2011. The stealthy aircraft’s Crisis, when China threatened Taiwan, of the 21st century on track to wield first flight was one dramatic example through short-range ballistic a much wider range of conventional of a steady process of modernization tests and military exercises, and US force options and with improved air- based on outright purchases from Rus- Navy aircraft carriers made transits of power capabilities out in front. No sia, licensed production agreements, the strait in a show of force. longer is the PLAAF “an overly large, and China’s own aircraft develop- Amy Chang of the US-China Eco- technologically inferior force,” stated ment by leading prime manufacturers nomic and Security Review Commis- NASIC. Divestment and investment Shenyang Aircraft Corp. and Chengdu sion wrote in a recent report that the have reshaped China’s two-tier air Aircraft Industry Group. crisis “catalyzed investment in the forces. The PLAAF is moving into Fighters aren’t the only new capa- long-term modernization and profes- position to capitalize on geographic bilities. China has added advanced sionalization of China’s armed forces. strengths and raise the stakes very , upgraded its venerable H-6 If there had been uncertainty before high for an opponent should a crisis bombers, and pressed ahead with as to what the might do arise. It is worth recapping how all airborne early warning. China’s air in a Taiwan scenario, this seemed to this came to be.

China has learned a lot from USAF. Photo via chinesemilitaryreview.blogspot.com

An H-6 long-range lands in China’s Anqing province. China has embarked on an ambitious revamp of its air arsenal, in- cluding upgrades to its bomber fleet.

34 AIR FORCE Magazine / January 2013 China’s Fighter Modernization equipment system with third generation 21. The table shows estimates from two By far the most significant develop- aircraft and surface-to-air missiles as the sources for fighter and ment for the PLAAF has been the shift mainstay, and modified second genera- plus the H-6 . from a large force of outdated, 1960s- tion aircraft and surface-to-air missiles The number range suggests China vintage fighters to a smaller, more as the supplement,” as China described probably has more than 400 fighters in the capable force. Today’s PLAAF features it in a 2008 national defense document. fourth generation class by US terminol- several fighters brought into service in The Pentagon’s 2012 China military ogy. Analyst Richard Fisher Jr. expects the 2000s. Some were purchased from report tallies 1,570 fighters, 550 - this number to grow. “Given what can be , while others were built under ers, 300 transport aircraft, plus another discerned about production rates, by 2020 license by China’s two major combat air- 1,450 older aircraft in the PLAAF inven- it is conceivable that the percentage of craft manufacturers, Shenyang Aircraft tory. However, the report does not offer ‘modern’ combat aircraft could exceed 50 Corp. and Chengdu Aircraft Industry a thorough order of battle. percent or be closer to 1,000 in number,” Group. Together they total nearly 400 A more detailed way to look at the Fisher concluded in a late 2011 calculation aircraft whose aerodynamic character- PLAAF is by its own metric of “main- published by the International Assessment istics and armament may be close to par stay” and “supplement” forces. The and Strategy Center. with US fighters, excepting the F-22. mainstay forces correspond to fourth Just as important are improvements in The PLAAF describes its force struc- generation fighters in US terminology. air-to-air missile technology. China once ture as a two-tier system. “The PLAAF The supplement forces owe much to relied on imitations of the AIM-7 family but has established a major weapons and advances and derivatives of the MiG- now has sophisticated short- and medium- range air-to-air missiles in its inventory. MAINSTAY The principal types are the R-27/AA-10 semi-active /infrared missile; the Maker Type RAND AMR infrared guided R-73/AA-11 with a range Chengdu J-10 120 200 of 18.6 miles; and the R-77/AA-12 with a range estimated at 31 Sukhoi Su-30 73 76 to 50 miles. Three of the four main types Shenyang J-11A 116 140 of fourth generation fighters—the J-10, Shenyang J-11B 18 J-11, and Su-30—carry the long-range advanced air-to-air missile R-77/AA-12 Xian JH-7 72 70 and the indigenous variant PL-12. So does Subtotal 399 486 the J-8, bringing the number of potential missile platforms to 776. SUPPLEMENT Shenyang J-8 312 360 Stealth Competition Two major Chinese aerospace firms Chengdu J-7 552 350 are flying stealthy fighter demonstration Nanchang Q-5 120 130 aircraft. Of course, both are subsidiar- Subtotal 984 840 ies of AVIC, China’s Aviation Industry Fighter/Attack 1,383 1,326 Strategic Bomber Xian H-6 82 120

Sources: Asian Military Review, “The AMR Regional Air Force Directory 2012,” and David A. Shlapak, RAND, “Equip- ping the PLAAF,” in The Chinese Air Force by Hallion, Cliff, and Saunders. Photo via chinesemilitaryreview.blogspot.com

J-15 fighters, such as this one, in late November made suc- cessful arrested landings on the Chinese carrier Liaoning.

AIR FORCE Magazine / January 2013 35 ing aircraft such as the E-3 AWACS and E-2C/D Hawkeye. The DH-10 shows Chinese military air attack development in microcosm. The ground-launched missile was first deployed in small numbers in 2008. By 2009, the number Artist’s conception by Erik Simonsen of deployed DH-10s was pegged at up to 350 missiles. Current assessments suggest China has between 200 and 500 DH-10 missiles with a 930-mile range. What portion of the inventory consists of air-launched cruise missiles is not known. Still, this growing capability gives China the ability to create havoc in the air over the Pacific. Estimates suggest the H-6M carries four anti-ship missiles, while the H-6K carries six cruise mis- siles. China has the option of combining its most advanced H-6 bomber variants An artist’s conception of a pair of J-20 fighters on a mission. The “Mighty Dragon” with air-launched DH-10 cruise missiles, made its first public flight in January 2011, during a visit to China by then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates. theoretically increasing the missile’s reach to more than 2,000 miles. Corp. Together, the J-20 and J-31 could flight. The J-31 appeared to be a more Guam and all other locations of US represent a design competition similar to compact and advanced design. From Pacific Command facilities would fall the contest between the Lockheed Martin flattering angles it could almost be in range of the H-6 bomber given those team X-35 and the Boeing X-32 back the fourth variant of the F-35. “The specifications. in 2001. At the least, the new fighters J-31 is almost certainly designed with China made its first move for an AWACS- indicate a healthy combat aircraft design the intention to have the potential of like aircraft more than a decade ago by base absorbing lessons from multiple operating on aircraft carriers, judging attempting to buy Israel’s Phalcon airborne international sources and putting them from its enhanced double-wheel nose early warning system. The deal was nixed in experimental designs. landing gear” and vertical stabilizers, in 2000 but only after the US House Ap- The Chengdu J-20 was first to fly. In aviation analyst Bai Wei told The propriations Committee threatened to cut a 2009 China Central Television inter- Times of India. US aid to Israel. China has since developed view, Gen. He Weirong, deputy head of The flight of the Shenyang dem- the KJ2000 radar system, mounted now China’s air force, said stealth fighters onstration aircraft leaves little doubt on Il-76 aircraft. Reports indicate China is were about to undergo test and China’s two top fighter houses are attempting to modify a Boeing 737-800 to would be deployed in eight or 10 years. striving for stealth. In US terms the host the radar package. Estimates suggest The J-20 “Mighty Dragon” made its first presence of two X aircraft types would China has four operational airborne early public flight in January 2011 during a signify a demonstration and validation warning aircraft. visit by US Secretary of Defense Robert flyoff competition and put a potential The PLAAF is also tasked with ground- M. Gates to China. full-scale program less than five years based air defense. The PLAAF took deliv- The J-20’s front aspect in particu- from production. ery of its first SA-2s in 1958 and has since lar shows many external stealth de- China’s bombers are not new or stealthy built a formidable arsenal of legacy SAMs, sign curves and features similar to the but their armament cannot be dismissed. advanced Russian systems, and their own F-22. From side and rear aspects, the With Russia, China is one of the few air indigenously modified HQ-9s. Like fighter resemblance fades, due to the block forces to operate a bomber fleet. China’s aircraft, the PLAAF surface-to-air missile fuselage, canards, protruding engines, H-6 bomber is an old design derived fleet has a highly modernized elite force of and thin vertical stabilizers. For now, it from the ’s Tu-16 Badger about 192 launchers on top of a bedrock is equipped with Russian-built AL-31F bomber. The total build was around 150 of approximately 490 legacy launchers. engines. The size of the J-20 suggests H-6 bombers shared among the PLAAF Of particular concern are the 192 SA- it could carry internal fuel plus a large and PLA Navy. Up to five were converted 20, SA-10, and HQ-9 type launchers. The bomb bay suited to known Chinese mis- to air refueling tankers in the mid-1990s. SA-10 range is about 50 miles, but the sile inventories including cruise missiles By itself, the 1950s-era technology is SA-20 variants have ranges between 93 and extended range air-to-air and anti- not impressive. The real story lies in the and 124 miles. ship missiles. RAND analyst David A. cruise missiles carried by the H-6. An Training for the SAM units “focuses Shlapak estimated it might be capable of H-6G bomber first tested an extended- heavily on night mobility,” according to supercruise, i.e., reaching Mach speed range, air-launched anti-ship missile more NASIC. A typical exercise begins with without afterburner. than a decade ago in 2001. At least one rapid departure, positioning to a prese- Second to fly, on Oct. 31, 2012, variant, the H-6K, reportedly can deliver lected launch site, and camouflage and was the Shenyang J-31 (named by six DH-10 cruise missiles or carry six concealment. analysts after its tail number), first to eight long-range air-to-air missiles The Chinese-developed HHQ-9 is a seen in roll out photos before it took primed for hunting airborne early warn- sea-launched missile that has been dem- 36 AIR FORCE Magazine / January 2013 onstrated in launch from Chinese Navy destroyers. Its range is estimated between 47 and 93 miles. With the HHQ-9, China could project lethal air defenses at sea as far as its fleet can maneuver.

Carrier Aviation Prospects Next to its , the most dramatic expansion of China’s airpower USAF photo TSgt.by JeromeTayborn S. comes in the form of its new aircraft carrier. China purchased the ex-Soviet Union’s Varyag in 1998 and ultimately towed it from the Black Sea for extensive refurbish- ment. The 65,000 ton displacement Varyag was the second hull of the Kuznetsov class. The carrier put to sea in August 2011. Liaoning was formally christened on Sept. 25, 2012, at a ceremony attended by China’s President, Hu Jintao. Senior Col. Zhang Zheng was named as Liaon- ing’s first commanding officer. Zhang, age 43, previously commanded a frigate Gen. Herbert Carlisle (r), commander of Pacific Air Forces, speaks with Lt. Gen. and a guided missile destroyer. He studied Cai Yingting, deputy chief of the General Staff of the People’s Liberation Army, at JB Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii. Carlisle says China’s technology may be 15 years English and military doctrine at the Joint behind the US, but America’s stealth advantage is diminishing. Services Command and Staff college in Britain from 2001 to 2003. University expect the J-15 to enter full some international exercises as with the People’s Daily Online in October 2012 rate production between 2015 and 2017, deployment to Turkey in 2010. reported that Li Jie, a professor at the which “will give China a capable fourth What’s much harder to assess is the Marine Military Academy, said the air- generation fighter that can be operated tactical savvy of China’s air force lead- craft carrier and their fleets in particular from aboard aircraft carriers.” The carrier ers from unit to headquarters level. One enable the naval force to go farther and class was originally designed to deploy interesting fact: The preponderance of top conduct maritime surveillance with more with some 30 fixed wing fighters and an officers are fighter pilots, a characteristic efficiency. additional complement of helicopters. That that reflects the sheer number of fighter As with the stealth programs, there have deck mix will add both prestige and local cockpits in the PLAAF since its inception. been major debates about the Chinese control of the air. Given the forces it’s acquiring, China carrier. “The most controversial issue of can now combine top equipment and in- the post-Cold era has been whether Net Assessment formation-focused doctrine into tough or not China is planning to procure air- NASIC summed up the improvements tactical problem sets for other forces in craft carriers,” wrote Norman Polmar in so far: The PLAAF “is emerging as a well- the Asia-Pacific region. Geography may December 2008. equipped and increasingly well-trained still be China’s biggest asset because Liaoning differs from the US Navy’s force, still possessing some identifiable it allows for concentration of forces. Nimitz-class carriers in several ways. shortcomings and weaknesses.” China has its entire coastal and inland Launch operations take place from the Significant holes remain in the PLAAF territory to use as a launching point primary deck where a 12-degree ski jump modernization. Foremost among these for fighters, bombers, and support and lofts fixed wing aircraft into the air. Ar- is its small air refueling fleet. China has . In hypothetical resting wires recover aircraft. Liaoning’s perhaps eight Il-78 tankers and may have air combat, China will be fighting near hull was originally designed for substan- converted up to a dozen H-6 bombers to home base. The US and its allies, on tial self-defense, with automatic deck refueling status. the other hand, would be reaching to guns comparable to the Phalanx, vertical Lack of combat experience is also project force—a task that can only be launch tubes for long-range air defense, a factor. The USAF pilot force, for accomplished with backing from - and ship-to-ship missiles. example, has long boasted at least a ers, ISR, and air battle control aircraft, Full flight operations have not yet fraction of airmen with combat experi- all of them far more vulnerable than been observed. However, a Shenyang ence from Vietnam, Operation Desert the fighters and bombers themselves. J-15 fighter completed a touch-and-go Storm, etc. Combat experience plus US technology may still be 15 years landing drill on Liaoning on Oct. 12, large force exercises season aircrews. ahead of China’s. But that gives little 2012, and in late November a pair of The last Chinese pilots to gain combat reassurance, especially given the trickle J-15s made successful arrested landings experience also flew during Vietnam. So of US stealth aircraft production. before launching again from the carrier. far, China’s pilots have given no sign Carlisle put it simply. “We’ve had The J-15 is a Chinese-built derivative of that they are gaining skills the way US an advantage in stealth for a number the Su-33 designed for carrier operations. forces do in Red Flag and other train- of years. That kind of time [gap] will China acquired one Su-33 (an upgrade ing events. However, they have begun not occur again.” n of the Su-27) from Ukraine in 2001. Analysts Phillip C. Saunders and Joshua Rebecca Grant is president of IRIS Independent Research. Her most recent K. Wiseman from the National Defense article for Air Force Magazine was “Linebacker II” in the December 2012 issue. AIR FORCE Magazine / January 2013 37