Initiative with India

THE war with Pakistan passed out of its tit-for-tat phase with the three- pronged attack on West Pakistan launched on Sunday. The international Vol XVII No 37 Sept 11, 1965 frontier between the two countries had been breached earlier by Pakistan in EDITORIAL its thrust into Chamb in Kashmir, but in other respects the Indian offensive Initiative with India 1395 was distinctive. First, it carried the war beyond Kashmir. Second, the forces thrown into the attack, judging from available reports, were more formidable WEEKLY NOTES by far than anything used till then by either side. To what extent these A New Fourth Plan?—Clean­ developments upset President Ayub Khan's calculations it is difficult to say. ing Up Business Practices— Of course, a really serious threat to Indian forces in Kashmir, such as posed Albert Schweitzer— by the Pakistani advance towards Akhnoor after capturing Jaurian, was bound Cement: Profits for Expan­ to be answered sooner than later by a direct attack on Pakistan herself. And sion—Fertilisers; From Dis­ in such an attack India would naturally exploit to the maximum the almost: tribution to Marketing- three-to one numerical superiority of her forces on the wide plains of Punjab. Honesty through Accredita­ The advantage has been pressed home with the two subsequent offensives tion 1397 launched on Wednesday, from Jammu towards Sialkot and from the Banner LETTER TO EDITOR region in Rajasthan towards Hyderabad (Sind). Upset calculations have not The Need To Be Moral 1400 been all on one side, however. Even official accounts of the course of the war CAPITAL VIEW indicate that the drive on Lahore has not proceeded with the expected des­ Ayub's Costly Miscalculations patch, though the immediate objective of arresting Pakistan's advance towards — Romesh Thapar 1396 Akhnoor has been achieved and the threat to Kashmir's life-lines lifted. FROM THE LONDON END More important, by the series of offensives launched since Sunday, India Labour with the Shine 140On1 has definitely wrested the initiative in the war. Much will now depend on how LETTER FROM AMERICA this advantage is exploited. The Defence Minister has told Parliament more Vietnam War Helps the than once that the aim is not to occupy Pakistani territory but to cripple her Economy 1402 military capability. The reasoning, it seems, is that since short of total defeat A CALCUTTA DIARY Pakistan is not likely to formally undertake to leave Kashmir alone and since, in any case, no one, not the UN certainly, can ensure that such a commitment Atulva Ghosh Rides Again 1403 will be honoured, the best guarantee for India is to emasculate Pakistan milita­ SPECIAL ARTICLES rily. The sustained attacks on Pakistan's air bases like the one at Sargodha Input-Output Analysis: Report and the emphasis on destruction of armour and equipment in the official on a Seminar 1404 reports on the war suggest that this objective is being pursued above nil, Urban Women Workers : A though with what success and at what cost it is not. clear. But assuming that Preliminary Study the objective can be achieved given enough time—a not entirely unrealistic - Kamla Nath 1405 assumption considering Pakistan's many strategic disadvantages and smaller Measurement of Aggregate military and industrial base and, of course, the difference in sheer size--the Productivity of Factors : question is can we settle down to a long war, and should we? Some Recent French Con­ A remarkable circumstance attending the war so far has been the virtual tributors unanimity abroad that it should be ended as soon as possible. Few countries, — Paresh Chattopadhyay 1413 if any, have shown an interest in involving themselves in the conflict, even Policies for Drawings from the to fish in troubled waters. The exceptions are perhaps China, Indonesia, Turkey IMF and Iran. The latter two, Pakistan's partners in The Cento, are at the moment -S L N Simha 1417 considering her appeal for assistance. Indonesia has rallied to Pakistan's AROUND BOMBAY MARKETS support in her customary manner, by providing demonstrators to ransack the LIC Comes to the Rescue 1422 Indian embassy in Jakarta. As for China, her aim, immediately at any rate, BUSINESS NOTES seems to be to prevent India from moving troops from the India-China border Greaves Cotton —CIMMCO — to the Punjab region; the threat of opening a second front, she hopes, Jaipur Metals—International will also keep India from striking at East Pakistan which is so poorly defended Tractors—Laxmi Starch— by Pakistan herself. None of this really amounts to active intervention in the Imperial Tobacco—Air war in such a manner as to take away the initiative from our hands. India 1423 It is really the moves for peace which will test the skill with which we FROM THE CHAIR exploit the military advantage we seem to have gained. At the moment of New Standard Engineering 1425 writing U Thant has just completed his first round of talks with Pakistani Kirloskar Oil Engines 1427 leaders in Rawalpindi; by the week-end he will he in New Delhi. The Security CURRENT STATISTICS 1429 Council resolution calling for a ceasefire has been, not unexpectedly, disregard­ ed by both countries. Pakistan insists on a UN commitment to a plebiscite in THE ECONOMIC WEEKLY Kashmir, India has specified her own pre conditions—the branding of Pakistan Co-operative Insurance Building, as the aggressor, removal of all Pakistani infiltrators from Kashmir and an Sir P M Road, Bombay-1. assurance that a similar attempt will not be made again by Pakistan to upset Grams: ECONWEEK the status quo in Kashmir. Given these respective positions, obviously, neither Telephone: 253406 country can agree to any conceivable peace formula, whether produced by Annual Subscription : Rs 36 U That or by the Commonwealth peace mission which may follow him, Foreign: 70 s or $ 10. without loss of face. In fact, both appear inevitably headed for some (or September 11, 1965 THE ECONOMIC WEEKLY considerable) loss of face. For, the appeals to the Seato and the Cento straws in the wind which cannot be alternative to a voluntarily accepted have been turned down, apparently on ignored. peace seems to be one imposed by technical grounds, hut really out of a countries which are in a position to genuine conviction that induction of For India wisdom seems to lie in do so. Both India and Pakistan fresh arms on either side can only a ceasefire voluntarily accepted while it need hardly be said, are uniquely aggravate the conflict whereas a denial the initiative in the war is with her. ill placed to withstand such pressure. of them may hasten its end. Extension This may involve the minimum loss of Significantly, the US, the Soviet Union of the same logic may ultimately pave face and may, it is just likely, enable and the UK have all urged immediate the way to peace. So far only Jo us to avoid, albeit temporarily, being end to the fighting. The US and the Grimmond, the British Liberal Party confronted with the substantive politi­ UK have suspended arms supplies to leader has openly advocated an em­ cal question of Kashmir immediately India and Pakistan and the latter's bargo on economic aid, but there are in the wake of ceasefire. CAPITAL VIEW Ayub's Costly Miscalculations Romesh Thapar THE cease-fire line in Jammu and communications network. Delhi's deci­ ramified business of the inevitable Kashmir belongs to the dead past. sion to enter West Pakistan at three cease-fire. The escalation is dictated Our armed forces have before them a points - - in the Ferozepore, Lahore largely by the strategic objective of single objective—the decimation of the and Sialkot sectors — with the clear destroying the aggressive potential of Pakistani forces which attempted to intention of carrying out an encircling, the Pakistan army. The destruction so seize the territory of Jammu and Kash­ decimating movement, must have start­ planned must take place in the short­ mir, The battle will continue until the led Ayub and his advisers. And, now est possible time because there is no Government of India is convinced that the pincers moving on Hyderabad in advantage to be gained in a prolonged the threat to our security has been Sind suggest that no respite is to be operation. And, within the next few smashed and adequate guarantees are given to the Pakistan army. days, the pressure from international opinion will mount rapidly to compel given that there will be no repetition Even if the Pakistani armour escapes a cease-fire. These are related issues of the events we have been witness to a terrible mauling, there is little doubt and will have to be resolved — possib­ during these recent weeks. These few that Ayub has made two costly miscal­ ly by a single decision. sentences summarise the prevalent culations. The first, that the Kashmir mood in the leadership of the ruling Valley would rise in support of his If the Pakistan army, and particu­ party. And, judging from the quiet de­ army infiltrators. The second, that larly the armour it has received from cisiveness with which the Emergency India would confine herself to defend­ the USA, is dealt a grievous blow Committee of the Cabinet has acted, ing Jammu and Kashmir despite the within the next few days, there is no there is little likelihood of any back­ disadvantage of an exposed and un- reason why our military formations sliding. Too much is at stake. dependiiblc supply route. It remains should not withdraw over the internal tional frontier while at the same hold­ All the bluster of Ayub and Bhutto, to be seen whether he makes his third, and possibly disastrous, miscalculation ing the recently captured Pakistan po­ now supplemented by the cynically op­ sitions along the cease-fire line which portunist agit-props in Peking and Ja­ in attempting an adventurist counter thrust with his armoured units into will ensure the insulation of the Kash­ karta, cannot hide the fact that Pak­ mir Valley from infiltrator invasions. istan was attempting a major military India to slavage his political image in Pakistan. A grave problem will arise, however, take-over in Jammu and Kashmir. The if we are unable to deliver the puni­ attack in the Chamb sector, massively All kinds of unconfirmed reports are shing blows within the limited time supported by armour and mechanised circulating. Army Headquarters, apt in available to us. Such a situation could units, was a closely co-ordinated fol­ the past to talk too much and too escalate the war to the point of no low-up to the activity of the infiltra­ glibly, has wisely adopted an aloof, return. The next few days could decide tors. True, the refusal of the valley to silent posture. Morale is mercurial in the future of Indo-Pak relations. respond complicated the stratagem. But our country and the public is too The GOI has yet to realise fully Rawalpindi believed that its thrust fond of feeding on a diet of unbroken that the confrontation with Pakistan through the Chamb sector would ex­ 'victories'. A set-back here or there is a confrontation with the West The ploit the advantages of terrain and creates reactions out of proportion to manipulations at the UN, despite the soon cut the vital strategic roads to the events. Army Headquarters, acting reports submitted by General Nimmo Poonch and to Srinagar, under Cabinet orders, has decided to and U Thant, the attempt by the USA Apparently, the military junta which confirm news only when positions have to imply that both India and Pakistan rules Pakistan, basing itself on the been properly consolidated and some­ are misusing (sic!) the equipment sup­ Kutch experience, assumed that India's thing is known of the enemy's response. plied to them under various agree­ leaders would hesitate to order the This attitude has given the rumour- ments and treaties, and the farce crossing of the Punjab frontier, would mongers a field day, but they are al­ sought to be enacted by the Pritish not remember the old declaration by ready beginning to look like teenagers who demand that we return the hard­ Jawarharlal Nehru that an attack on out for excitement. ware 'leased' to us after the NEFA Jammu and Kashmir would be consi­ The Prime Minister and his collea­ clear the muddled thinking of two dered an attack on India. This probab­ gues in the Emergency Committee of colision in 1962, have done much to ly explains why Pakistani armour had the Cabinet — Gulzarilal Nanda, Indi­ years. However, we have still to com­ been heavily concentrated for the as­ ra Gandhi, T T Krishnamachari and prehend the implications and our res­ sault on Jammu and Kashmir, even at Yashwantrao Chavan — have now to ponse to them. the risk of denuding the defences of apply their minds to the scale of the The Soviet position on the war that Lahore which is crucial in Pakistan's escalation, the time factor and the has developed between India and Pak-