Tipping Points for New Zealand's Native Land Birds

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Tipping points for New Zealand’s native land birds

Susan Walker Landcare Research, Dunedin Tipping Points (EDS Conference) Auckland, 10-11 August 2017 Thanks Adrian Monks John Innes Graeme Elliott Josh Kemp

Data Ornithological Society of New Zealand (bird atlases) Department of Conservation (rodents) Thanks

Images Neil Fitzgerald John Hunt John Innes Craig Mackenzie Rachel McLennan James Mortimer James Reardon Glenda Rees Peter Scott ROB SUISTED Forest & alpine birds Forest & alpine birds

RIFLEMAN, NEIL FITZGERALD Forest & alpine birds

KAKA, JAMES REARDON Forest & alpine birds

NORTH ISLAND KOKAKO, JOHN INNES Forest & alpine birds

MOHUA IN RED BEECH FOREST , GLENDA REES Birds in most trouble Inland-breeding wading birds, terns and gulls Wrybill

BANDED DOTTEREL, TASMAN VALLEY, © CRAIG MACKENZIE Endemic bird diversity Humans arriveHumans Time 10,000 years - - Tipping pointTipping whole avifauna regime change Tipping point Māori arrive - regime change - whole avifauna

Pakeha arrive Endemic bird diversity Endemic bird

1,000 years Time Species’ security Species’ tippingpoints Population HIGH GONE LOW Security Populationsize DOING OK

IN SOME TROUBLE

IN SERIOUS TROUBLE

ON THE BRINK OF EXTINCTION

forest birds IN SOME Kereru TROUBLE Tomtit Morepork L-tailed cuckoo 1970s IN SERIOUS Robin TROUBLE Rifleman Kiwi Blue duck Kaka Parakeet

ON THE BRINK OF Kokako EXTINCTION Weka

GONE Percent of forest range occupied North Island DOING OK

forest birds IN SOME Kereru TROUBLE Tomtit 25 years later IN SERIOUS Morepork TROUBLE L-tailed cuckoo Robin Rifleman Kaka Parakeet Kiwi ON THE BRINK OF Blue duck EXTINCTION Kokako Weka

GONE Percent of forest range occupied following Polynesian settlement

GONE Percent of range occupied following European settlement

GONE Percent of range occupied Then (50 years ago)

DOING OK

IN SOME TROUBLE

IN SERIOUS TROUBLE

ON THE BRINK OF EXTINCTION

GONE Percent of range occupied Now

DOING OK

IN SOME TROUBLE

IN SERIOUS TROUBLE

TEETERING ON THE BRINK OF EXTINCTION

GONE Percent of range occupied 10 ‘kinds’ of kiwi Bottom of the cliff intervention 100 Rowi Little spotted

Haast tokoeka 80 Coromandel NI brown

60 Northland NI brown Western NI brown

birds managed (%) managed birds 40 of of

Eastern NI brown 20 Great spotted Fiordland tokoeka Percent Percent Rakiura tokoeka 0 SMALLEST BIGGEST Population size

INNES ET AL. 2015 LANDCARE RESEARCH INNES ET AL. 2015

Population growth rate

SHRINKING GROWING (LANDCARE (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT KIWISKIWI) FOR FOR SMALLEST ZERO ZERO LINE Rowi Haast tokoeka Haast Eastern NI Population 10 ‘kinds’ ofkiwi 10 Coromandel Littlespotted brown size Western Western Northern NI Northern brown BIGGEST Fiordlandtokoeka Rakiura NI brownNI Great Great spotted tokoeka Population trends

Consequences of small population size

size Population

0 (extinction) Time

ADAPTED FROM JAMIESON (UNPUBLISHED) AND INNES ET AL (2010) Keeping remaining large populations large

BLACK-BILLED GULLS, RACHEL MCLENNAN Landscape tipping points

MURCHISON MOUNTAINS FROM TE ANAU, JAMES REARDON Forest birds need forest

Native forest cover Endemic forest birds At human Now Now settlement

RICHNESS High

Low

WALKER & MONKS 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE) Endemic forest birds need forest more

Endemic forest birds Now

RICHNESS High

Low Endemic forest birds need forest more Non- >>> Species- & genus- >>> Deep endemics level endemics endemics Forest now 0

RICHNESS High

Low

WALKER & MONKS 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE) Level of endemism >>> TASMAN VALLEY AND MT COOK, PETER SCOTT PUKAKI OUTWASH PLAIN, SIMONS PASS, MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Habitat transformation Habitat loss

AHURIRI OUTWASH PLAIN, KILLERMONT, MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Necessary but not enough

SINBAD VALLEY, FIORDLAND, JAMES REARDON Not all forests are equal

PAPAROA NATIONAL PARK, JAMES REARDON Not all forests are equal

Ship rat

JOHN INNES, LANDCARE RESEARCH Predator patterns Ship rats

A B C D ‘Rat forest’ classes E F

WALKER ET AL (LANDCARE RESEARCH AND DOC, IN PREP) HIGH, BEECHY IRRUPTIVE MICE, but RATS RARE

COLDER HIGH, BEECHY LOW ELEVATION IRRUPTIVE ALWAYS RATTY MICE, RATS RARE > FEW MICE

COLDER WARMER Mean annual Temperature patterns temperature Forests in squares with remaining forest

WARMER FORESTS

COLDER FORESTS

WALKER, MONKS & INNES 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE) Mean annual Temperature patterns temperature Endemic forest birds in squares with remaining forest

IN SOME TROUBLE

1970s

WARMER IN FORESTS SERIOUS TROUBLE 25 years GONE later

COLDER FORESTS Mean annual temperature >>> ˷ ‘Rat forest’ Temperature ship rats

classes ‘Rat forest’ forest’ ‘Rat class

Mean annual temperature >>> Deep endemic forest birds depend more on cold forests Deep endemic forest birds depend more on cold forests

IN SOME Species Genus Family Order TROUBLE level level level level

IN South SERIOUS Island TROUBLE North GONE Island COLD > WARM COLD > WARM COLD > WARM COLD > WARM Level of endemism >>> Kākā IN SOME TROUBLE NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s IN SERIOUS TROUBLE

GONE

COLD > WARM

WALKER,KAKA: JAMES MONKS REARDON & INNES (2017) Blue duck/whio IN SOME TROUBLE NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s IN SERIOUS TROUBLE

GONE

COLD > WARM

WHIO FORAGING: NEIL FITZGERALD Mohua IN SOME TROUBLE SOUTH ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s IN SERIOUS TROUBLE

GONE

COLD > WARM

MOHUA IN RED BEECH FOREST : GLENDA REES Rifleman IN SOME TROUBLE NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s IN SERIOUS TROUBLE

GONE

COLD > WARM

RIFLEMAN, NEIL FITZGERALD The management tipping point?

Warm forests are a (much) bigger challenge than beech forest Scale is key: ability to • maintain low ship rat numbers • over massive forest areas • cost-effectively • without unintended consequences

KEA : JAMES MORTIMER Conclusions

1. So far we • avert bird extinctions, but not bird declines • do not intervene at the scales needed to keep large bird populations large

MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Conclusions

2. Outside remaining forests, social-ecological tipping points • have been passed (deforestation) • are being approached or exceeded (South Island inland basins) 3. Rodents at large scales in warm forests – the management tipping point?

MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Acknowledgements

Adrian Monks John Hunt John Innes Craig Mackenzie Graeme Elliott Rachel McLennan Josh Kemp James Mortimer Birds New Zealand Peter Scott

Glenda Rees https://www.facebook.com/NZBANP/ https://www.instagram.com/glenda_rees/