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Tipping Points for New Zealand's Native Land Birds

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Tipping Points for New Zealand's Native Land Birds Tipping points for New Zealand’s native land birds Susan Walker Landcare Research, Dunedin Tipping Points (EDS Conference) Auckland, 10-11 August 2017 Thanks Adrian Monks John Innes Graeme Elliott Josh Kemp Data Ornithological Society of New Zealand (bird atlases) Department of Conservation (rodents) Thanks Images Neil Fitzgerald John Hunt John Innes Craig Mackenzie Rachel McLennan James Mortimer James Reardon Glenda Rees Peter Scott ROB SUISTED Forest & alpine birds Forest & alpine birds RIFLEMAN, NEIL FITZGERALD Forest & alpine birds KAKA, JAMES REARDON Forest & alpine birds NORTH ISLAND KOKAKO, JOHN INNES Forest & alpine birds MOHUA IN RED BEECH FOREST , GLENDA REES Birds in most trouble Inland-breeding wading birds, terns and gulls Wrybill BANDED DOTTEREL, TASMAN VALLEY, © CRAIG MACKENZIE Tipping point Humans arrive - regime change - whole avifauna Endemic bird diversity Endemic bird 10,000 years Time Tipping point Māori arrive - regime change - whole avifauna Pakeha arrive Endemic bird diversity Endemic bird 1,000 years Time Population HIGH tipping points Species’ security Security LOW GONE Population size DOING OK IN SOME TROUBLE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE ON THE BRINK OF EXTINCTION © GONE Population size North Island DOING OK forest birds IN SOME Kereru TROUBLE Tomtit Morepork L-tailed cuckoo 1970s IN SERIOUS Robin TROUBLE Rifleman Kiwi Blue duck Kaka Parakeet ON THE BRINK OF Kokako EXTINCTION Weka GONE Percent of forest range occupied North Island DOING OK forest birds IN SOME Kereru TROUBLE Tomtit 25 years later IN SERIOUS Morepork TROUBLE L-tailed cuckoo Robin Rifleman Kaka Parakeet Kiwi ON THE BRINK OF Blue duck EXTINCTION Kokako Weka GONE Percent of forest range occupied following Polynesian settlement GONE Percent of range occupied following European settlement GONE Percent of range occupied Then (50 years ago) DOING OK IN SOME TROUBLE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE ON THE BRINK OF EXTINCTION GONE Percent of range occupied Now DOING OK IN SOME TROUBLE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE TEETERING ON THE BRINK OF EXTINCTION GONE Percent of range occupied 10 ‘kinds’ of kiwi Bottom of the cliff intervention 100 Rowi Little spotted Haast tokoeka 80 Coromandel NI brown 60 Northland NI brown Western NI brown birds managed (%) managed birds 40 of Eastern NI brown 20 Great spotted Fiordland tokoeka Percent Percent Rakiura tokoeka 0 SMALLEST BIGGEST Population size INNES ET AL. 2015 LANDCARE RESEARCH 10 ‘kinds’ of kiwi Population trends Rowi Coromandel Haast tokoeka Little spotted Northern NI brown GROWING growth rate growth ZERO LINE Western NI brown Population Eastern NI brown Fiordland tokoeka Great spotted Rakiura tokoeka SHRINKING SMALLEST BIGGEST Population size INNES ET AL. 2015 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR KIWIS FOR KIWI) Consequences of small population size size Population 0 (extinction) Time ADAPTED FROM JAMIESON (UNPUBLISHED) AND INNES ET AL (2010) Keeping remaining large populations large BLACK-BILLED GULLS, RACHEL MCLENNAN Landscape tipping points MURCHISON MOUNTAINS FROM TE ANAU, JAMES REARDON Forest birds need forest Native forest cover Endemic forest birds At human Now Now settlement RICHNESS High Low WALKER & MONKS 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE) Endemic forest birds need forest more Endemic forest birds Now RICHNESS High Low Endemic forest birds need forest more Non- >>> Species- & genus- >>> Deep endemics level endemics endemics Forest now 0 RICHNESS High Low WALKER & MONKS 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE) Level of endemism >>> TASMAN VALLEY AND MT COOK, PETER SCOTT PUKAKI OUTWASH PLAIN, SIMONS PASS, MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Habitat transformation Habitat loss AHURIRI OUTWASH PLAIN, KILLERMONT, MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Necessary but not enough SINBAD VALLEY, FIORDLAND, JAMES REARDON Not all forests are equal PAPAROA NATIONAL PARK, JAMES REARDON Not all forests are equal Ship rat JOHN INNES, LANDCARE RESEARCH Predator patterns Ship rats A B C D ‘Rat forest’ classes E F WALKER ET AL (LANDCARE RESEARCH AND DOC, IN PREP) HIGH, BEECHY IRRUPTIVE MICE, but RATS RARE COLDER HIGH, BEECHY LOW ELEVATION IRRUPTIVE ALWAYS RATTY MICE, RATS RARE > FEW MICE COLDER WARMER Mean annual Temperature patterns temperature Forests in squares with remaining forest WARMER FORESTS COLDER FORESTS WALKER, MONKS & INNES 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE) Mean annual Temperature patterns temperature Endemic forest birds in squares with remaining forest IN SOME TROUBLE 1970s WARMER IN FORESTS SERIOUS TROUBLE 25 years GONE later COLDER FORESTS Mean annual temperature >>> ˷ ‘Rat forest’ Temperature ship rats classes ‘Rat forest’ forest’ ‘Rat class Mean annual temperature >>> Deep endemic forest birds depend more on cold forests Deep endemic forest birds depend more on cold forests IN SOME Species Genus Family Order TROUBLE level level level level IN South SERIOUS Island TROUBLE North GONE Island COLD > WARM COLD > WARM COLD > WARM COLD > WARM Level of endemism >>> Kākā IN SOME TROUBLE NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s IN SERIOUS TROUBLE GONE COLD > WARM WALKER,KAKA: JAMES MONKS REARDON & INNES (2017) Blue duck/whio IN SOME TROUBLE NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s IN SERIOUS TROUBLE GONE COLD > WARM WHIO FORAGING: NEIL FITZGERALD Mohua IN SOME TROUBLE SOUTH ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s IN SERIOUS TROUBLE GONE COLD > WARM MOHUA IN RED BEECH FOREST : GLENDA REES Rifleman IN SOME TROUBLE NORTH SOUTH ISLAND ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s IN SERIOUS TROUBLE GONE COLD > WARM RIFLEMAN, NEIL FITZGERALD The management tipping point? Warm forests are a (much) bigger challenge than beech forest Scale is key: ability to • maintain low ship rat numbers • over massive forest areas • cost-effectively • without unintended consequences KEA : JAMES MORTIMER Conclusions 1. So far we • avert bird extinctions, but not bird declines • do not intervene at the scales needed to keep large bird populations large MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Conclusions 2. Outside remaining forests, social-ecological tipping points • have been passed (deforestation) • are being approached or exceeded (South Island inland basins) 3. Rodents at large scales in warm forests – the management tipping point? MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT Acknowledgements Adrian Monks John Hunt John Innes Craig Mackenzie Graeme Elliott Rachel McLennan Josh Kemp James Mortimer Birds New Zealand Peter Scott Glenda Rees https://www.facebook.com/NZBANP/ https://www.instagram.com/glenda_rees/.
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