Food Security: Indicators, Measurement, and the Impact of Household

Behavior on Food Acquisition and Allocation, Experimental Evidence

from ,

Yuan-lin HUANG1, Xiang-mei LI2,3, Lars Lefgren4, 1.College of Natural Resource and Environment, Qinzhou University, Guangxi, China, 535000; 2. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University，Nanjing ,China 210095; 3. China Center for Food Security Studies, Nanjing Agricultural University，Nanjing ,China 210095; 4.Department of Economics, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, United States, 84604）

Yuan-lin HUANG, Ph.D, Associate Professor, [email protected] Corresponding Author: Xiang-mei LI, Ph.D. Professor. Email: [email protected]

Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, San Francisco, California, 26-28 July 2015 Abstract This paper aimed to determine the magnitude of food insecurity and its determinants in rural households of Tibet, China. In this paper, a community based cross-sectional study was conducted from 2002 to 2013, whole about Tibet (this survey program was founded by Tibet Government Founding). In the study, household heads were recruited using a multistage random sampling technique. Data were collected by face-to-face interviews using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) tool after verbal informed consent. We chosen the same districts, same household, collected data every two years, totally number of the households is 736. Based on the data of sample investigation, combined with individual anthropometric estimates for children and a thorough understanding of household behavior, we moved beyond the simple head count measure of food insecurity in this paper and proposed three measures of food insecurity, along the lines of new poverty measures and explained the desirable properties of these measures that are not present in the head count measure. We then measured household living standards, compiles Tibetan poverty statistics, derives minimum dietary energy requirements, simulates the impact of food price or food supply shocks on food insecurity by population groups. We found that Tibetan foodstuff tradition is eating more meat and less grain, the annual consumption of grain is only 269.02 kg per person, which includes 46.02 kg of feedstuff. Only 42.54% of the grain was harvested in Tibet. Many households had little no-agricultural income and few livestock, nearly three quarters of the households (73.27%) had food insecurity. Households headed by females (AOR = 3.47, 93% CI:1.68, 13.21), lack of education (AOR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.46, 4.60), family size of <2 (AOR = 2.39, 95% CI: 1.21,4.70), family size of >7 (AOR = 13.23,95% CI:6.18, 28.32), few or absence of livestock (AOR = 5.60, 95% CI:1.28, 24.43), absence of income from off-farm activities (AOR = 3.12, 95% CI:1.53, 6.36), lack of irrigation (AOR = 3.54, 95% CI:2.14, 5.18) and lack of perennial income (AOR = 3.15, 95% CI:1.88, 5.27) were factors associated with food insecurity. Key words: household income and behavior; food security; aggregate food supplies;

1. Introduction There are numerous indicators reporting on food insecurity and under-nutrition at global, country, household, and individual levels. The World Food Summit in 1996 determined that food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. This widely accepted definition emphasizes the multidimensional nature of food security, comprising level and stability of food access and availability, as well as adequacy of food use and nutritional status. Hence, food insecurity is not easy to measure. The same applies to hunger, which is commonly understood as a sensation of not having enough to eat. On the one hand, the extent of hunger can be measured as a lack of essential nutrients in the diet, for which a widely used indicator is food energy deficiency. On the other hand, hunger may also be the result of humans’ inability to absorb and use food energy and specific nutrients for body functions, implying that the overall nutritional status is also affected by people’s health. In this paper, the authors think that food insecurity exists when people lack access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food, and therefore are not consuming enough food for an active and healthy life. This may be due to the unavailability of food, inadequate purchasing power, or inappropriate utilization at household level. In Tibet, we found that food insecurity is a risk factor for poor health including chronic diseases and Human Immuno-deficiency Virus (HIV) infection, as in the other places in the world (FAO &WFP, 2009; Seligman HK, 2010; Weiser S, 2007; Vozoins N, 2003). Tibetan food insecurity not only affects ourselves, but also affects future food security of all over the world. There are many approaches of assessing chronic food insecurity and under-nutrition. FAO indicator of under-nourishment, household food consumption surveys and anthropometric measurements are the most frequently used approaches. In this paper, based on the survey data (especially food consumption data), we measure household living standards, compile Tibetan poverty statistics, derive minimum dietary energy requirements, simulate the impact of food price or food supply shocks on food insecurity by population groups. Our interest in Tibet food insecurity measure stems mainly from two reasons. First, from 2002 to 2013, we have been collected a comprehensive set of questions on food consumption, which can meet the direct measures of food insecurity requires; Several questions (described in Table 1 below) reflecting varying degrees of food insufficiency are asked and the qualitative nature of the questions do capture, at least to certain extent the level of food insecurity through individuals' perceptions of their food situation. Second, based on existing poverty measures, the presence of multiple questions allows us to apply new methodology, our interest is on the aggregation aspect of a measure of food insecurity rather the identification of the households that are food insecure. We implicitly assume that using some indicator we are properly able to identify households that suffer from food insecurity. Exactly how we should combine the amount of food insecurity suffered by each household to form a societal measure of food insecurity is the object of this chapter. Although this paper examines food insecurity in Tibet, the methodology that we use can equally be applied for other developing regions.

2. Basic Framework In the past twenty years, many scholars argued that aggregate measures of food deprivation should take in to account aspects of inequality within food insecure households (Sen 1981; Foster and Leathers 1999). Vecchi and Coppolla (2003), Fujji (2004), and Jha (2004) made aggregate measure of food insecurity to distinguish households experiencing slight reductions in food intake from households suffering from more severe levels of hunger, they gave a higher weight to the more food deprived household and provided a single food insecurity index. Depending upon the different weighting procedure used, they had different food insecurity indices. Foster et al. (1984) to measure severity of undernutrition in terms of calorie deficiency while Fujji (2004) uses the same aggregation rule to measure malnutrition using standardized heights and weights. Compared to these papers, here we have proposed broader set of rules in Tibet, discussed the theoretical issues associated with these measures especially in the context of its application to subjective measures of food insecurity as is the case with Tibetan food insecurity data that we have. Taking a step further, using these aggregation rules, we test whether food insecurity measures are statistically significantly different among different demographic categories. We begin with a brief description of the qualitative approach and our design of a theoretical framework that allows us to incorporate more information from food insecurity instruments with multiple questions. Then we consider an empirical application of this framework. We calculate the extent of food insecurity and the extent of food insecurity with hunger in Tibet in 2002 and 2013. To do so, we use the 18 item Core Food Security Module (CFSM) which is on numerous surveys. In addition to comparing results for all households, we further consider how the indices differ by various demographic categories.

2.1 A Qualitative Approach

In a qualitative approach to food insecurity, developed in Tibet, food insecurity is treated as a latent variable and hence subjective questions related to the food intake of the household are used to elicit that information. Depending on their response to the set of questions, each household in then given a food insecurity index that is calculated using multi variate analysis. More affirmative responses to food inadequacy questions represent higher degrees of food insecurity. The household food insecurity index varies between zero and some upper bound with higher numbers indicating greater food insecurity. Once each household is given a food insecurity index, the next step is to formulate an aggregate measure of food insecurity. Instead of a single food insecurity index, in the official statistics households are classified as food secure, food insecure without hunger, or food insecure with hunger. Hence, households (with children) are classified as food insecure without hunger if they respond affirmatively to more than three and less than seven (out of 18) questions and households are classified as food insecure with hunger if they respond affirmatively to eight or more questions. Through this classification system, the possible richness of the measure is not fully utilized. Consider two households, one responding affirmatively to eight questions and one responding affirmatively to eighteen questions. Both are treated as food insecure with hunger yet, as Sen (1976) has eloquently argued in the context of poverty measurement, such differences in the degree of deprivation are important and should be reflected in the indices we construct. Just plain distinguishing the households in terms of severity of food insecurity, however, is not very helpful since it simply partitions the set of food insecure households in to coarse sets and does not provide a unified index of food insecurity. While this kind of partitioning may be helpful for policy targeting purposes, in the sense that one knows exactly which group within the food insecure should be given first priority, one can still argue that a unified index which takes the severity of food insecurity in to account within the coarse sets will lead to a better understanding of various policy relevant issues. 2.2 Foodstuff Production and Consumption Structure Change of Tibet

2.2.1 Foodstuff production dynamic change It is difficult to supply foodstuff, that is the main factor for counteracting the development of Tibet, where is very cold, and mostly region in Tibet is not fit for developing foodstuff. There are cosmically improvements on foodstuff production along with democracy reformation of Tibet, The foodstuff output is 1370kg/hm2 in1959, increased to 4934kg/hm2 in 2013 which was 2.6 times of that of 1959; The rapeseed output is 519 kg/hm2, increased to 2592 kg/hm2 which was 4.0 times of that of 1959. There is biggish change on foodstuff quantity (per person) and foodstuff structure of the inhabitant; also on meat and milk quantity (per person), all kinds of meat the whole region people owned was 23.34kg/year (per person) in 1978 \ milk 52.23kg/year (per person) and foodstuff was 287.1kg/year (per person) . In 2013, all kinds of meat the whole region people owned was 63.11kg/year (per person) \milk 90.86kg/year (per person) and foodstuff was 387.3kg/year (per person) , which was 2.7, 1.74 and 0.35 time respectively of that of 1978.（indicated as Table 1）. Tab. 1 The Change Quantity (per person) Main Farm Products of Tibetan Farmer (Herdsman)

Food（kg） Rapeseed（kg） Kinds of meat（kg） Milk Vegetables

1978 287.1 4.4 23.34 52.23 14.3

2013 387.3 17.1 63.11 90.86 79.9

Consumption quantity per person in 286.7 14.21 10.71 30.71 26.2 2013

Surplus quantity of main farm 100.6 2.89 52.4 60.15 53.7 products in 2013 (kg/per person)

Information sources：Tibet Autonomous Region Stat. Bureau Edit, Tibet Stat. Almanac 2014 China Stat. Publishing Company

Peking .2015.2

2.2.2 Structure of food consumption in the whole region By Investigating 736 households consumption, which on rice, flour, tsamba (a form of bread made from barley in Tibet), edible vegetable oil, ghee, meat of flocks and herds, kinds of milk vegetables etc., and analyzing the sample, it showed the structure features of main food for Tibet farmer (herdsman) and regarded one family every year as the unit, such as table 2.

Tab.2 Consumption Quantity of Main Food Tibet Autonomous Region Farmer(Herdsman) unit：kg edible Local highland Foodstuff Kinds of foodstuff paddy* wheat legume vegetable ghee Meat barley] total milk proportion oil （%） City 49.96 109.84 179.82 3.07 6.71 342.69 36.61 52.92 43.34 53.37 Rikaz Ngari 31.40 81.99 124.53 8.57 5.43 254.49 40.34 77.15 37.89 52.30 Prefecture Shannan 27.67 149.94 86.36 2.84 6.82 266.81 42.77 54.29 19.92 33.43 Prefecture Qamdo 19.51 111.85 79.34 3.19 4.17 213.88 27.43 53.23 33.15 38.58 prefecture 19.98 77.31 104.62 2.2 6.24 304.10 39.66 81.35 39.89 68.01 Prefecture 20.22 166.28 43.27 3.42 3.15 233.19 51.50 119.75 58.60 20.02 Prefecture Ngari Prefecture 22.27 159.84 81.24 4.59 3.23 267.94 34.51 112.47 154.25 32.03 Whole Region 26.89 123.98 116.27 1.88 5.11 269.02 38.98 78.74 55.29 42.54 Average * convert for the consumption rice of inhabitant information origin：the data of 736 household spot check which has difference with the whole region average foodstuff quantity of consumption, that including for vintage etc. consumption Through spot check for 736 households of 24 counties of 7 cities, it shows the annual average foodstuff consumption is 269.02kg in the table 2. Inhabitants often purchase paddy and pour flour and whose self-producing foodstuff consumption only 42.54% of the foodstuff general consumption. The consumption for meat reached 119.75kg/year (per person) in Nagqu and Ngari etc. pure animal husbandry regions, which with highest consumption, next region of Ali reached 112.47kg/year (per person) and Nagqu County reached highest 143.52kg, everybody consumption in each day is 0.5kg per year. It is a small amount of the inhabitants’ consumption on the foodstuff, and they mainly purchase rice and flour in backland which more than local foodstuff in Tibet. The inhabitants in the city depend on the exotic foodstuff more and more, and their foodstuff consumption, is less than the inhabitants in rural region. The habitant average foodstuff consumption is 86.5kg in 2013, and as exotic rice, flour etc. as leading food, the local foodstuff consumption less percent 10, the foodstuff production and consumption of inhabitants in the whole region, such as Table three. It shows the inhabitants foodstuff consumption still as stable food as leading food in Tibet, and foodstuff which used for feedstuff、producing and sale etc. aspects, whose proportion is less in the table three. The foodstuff for sale is less percent 10. There are many farmer families with more surplus foodstuff, even some have foodstuff for eating about five to seven years. The farmers (herdsman) got the foodstuff by purchasing who lived in the most animal husbandry as Nagqu and Ali etc. regions. But these herd households purchased more rice 、flour etc. artifactitious productions, when they purchased . and less demand for local highland barley, which is percent 53.47 of staple food of the Farmers(herdsman) , and it is only percent 20.02 in Nagqu region, there are great change on the structure of foodstuff consumption for the rural inhabitants already great change of Tibet Autonomous Region.

Tab.3 The status of Average Income and Expense of Foodstuff in Tibet Autonomous Region

Income of Foodstuff (kg) Expense o f Foodstuff (kg) Foodstuff Foodstuff Foodstuff for Foodstuff for Foodstuff for Region Other Income Sale Others Production Purchasing living production feedstuff Quantity Proportion Quantity Proportion Quantity Proportion Quantity Proportion Quantity Proportion Quantity Proportion Quantity Proportion Quantity Proportion Ngari 72.00 26.69 197.57 73.24 0.18 0.07 267.94 99.40 1.26 0.47 0.37 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Prefecture Qamdo 277.74 89.85 29.43 9.52 1.94 0.63 213.88 91.13 3.56 1.52 3.45 1.47 12.40 5.28 1.40 0.60 prefecture Nyingchi 541.65 94.09 31.24 5.43 2.76 0.48 304.10 90.63 5.41 1.61 12.47 3.72 9.78 2.91 3.80 1.13 Prefecture Nagqu 24.85 14.39 147.67 85.51 0.17 0.10 233.19 99.61 0.50 0.21 0.42 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Prefecture Shannan 524.39 93.28 35.50 6.32 2.28 0.41 266.81 84.77 3.69 1.17 28.46 9.04 15.02 4.77 0.75 0.24 Prefecture Xigaze 571.80 93.72 34.90 5.72 3.43 0.56 254.49 74.21 4.98 1.45 53.72 15.67 29.71 8.66 0.03 0.01 Prefecture Lhaza City 475.57 89.04 56.42 10.56 2.14 0.40 342.69 76.79 3.52 0.79 64.12 14.37 33.20 7.44 2.74 0.61 Average 387.27 87.17 54.59 12.29 2.39 0.54 269.02 78.06 3.53 1.02 41.62 12.08 29.58 8.58 0.87 0.25 * convert for the consumption rice of inhabitant information sources：the data of 736 household spot check which has difference with the whole region average foodstuff quantity of consumption, that including for vintage etc. consumption

3. The analyses for foodstuff security of Tibet Autonomous Region 3.1 Analyses model for foodstuff security What is called “foodstuff security”, it is “foodstuff of a country can ensure the inhabitant to purchase the foodstuff that they need in time”, according to the definition of Food and Agriculture Organization of the Unites Nation. i.e. it can supply the nutrition that people for normal working、 studying, entertaining. We assess the degree of foodstuff of one country or region by the four indexes international , which is the degree of depending on import foodstuff、foodstuff storage capacity, aberrance coefficient of foodstuff output and the ability of low-income people for getting foodstuff. Considered generally, the degree of depending on import foodstuff of a country, which is less 5 percent, it shows the country has enough high foodstuff security capability [8] .its main contests include foodstuff quantity, stability of supply and the ability for regulating price etc. three aspects [3]. Hereinto it is the basic for researching regional foodstuff security, which the relation between supply and demand of agricultural products output. according to DÖÖS and model SEI of Shaw [10，11] ，the demand for foodstuff can be divided two levels in the future , which is to ensure foodstuff consumption and foodstuff security. The former means foodstuff production enough to meet the consumption level of 1990, i.e. demanded 2500kcal/cap in each day in the developing country and region；the latter means foodstuff production to be suitable for growth of foodstuff demand which brought up by development of economy, i.e. the foodstuff consumption need from 2500kcal/cap at present to increase to 3000kcal/cap at least, if the foodstuff consumption increase 15 percent average for person and foodstuff consumption increase 30 percent average for livestock in the developing country or region.. according the situation, the relation between supply and demand can be express as follows：

Foodstuff demanding quantity of region=foodstuff consumption of population of region +trade+ the change of storage + spoilage+ quantity of seed for planting + Quantity for processing +quantity for feedstuff +others (1) hereinto foodstuff consumption of population of region =total population×calorie of nutrition（cal /per person everyday）×structure of nutrition/characteristic of foodstuff (cal/kg) foodstuff demanding quantity of region=tillable field acreage at present×cultivated intensity× cultivated model×output of unit acreage (2)

the supply quantity of foodstuff is effected by storage tillable field, technique innovation, chemical fertilizer using, agriculture adjustment, disaster caused by injurious insect, UV radio, soil degenerate and the change of globe climate etc. factors. According to DÖÖS Shaw set the average value of all factors is 1.12 without any climate change, the standard dispersion is 0.26（table four）[10，11]，but Tang Guo-pin and LI Xiu-bin who researched on the change of climate affection on tillable field acreage of our country, and brought up that the change value of tillable field of our country , which is 0.031 in 2020 and 0.023 in 2050.

Tab.4 The change of the factor of Chinese food field in 2025 (from DÖÖs, Show) The change extension that arose output（as Factors standard as 1990’s） Minimum Average Max. Technique innovation 1.18 1.35 1.53 Chemical fertilizer using raise 1.14 1.28 1.42 Agriculture adjustment for meeting the change of climate 0.93 0.97 1.00 Irrigation, salted, waterlogging 1.02 1.04 1.06 Injurious insect, disaster, UV radio etc. 0.89 0.93 0.97 Soil degenerate 0.61 0.74 0.87 Activity of human（development of industry etc.） 0.87 0.91 0.96 Rise of sea level and sink of land 1.00 1.00 1.00 Change of cultivated intensity 1.05 1.10 1.15 All comprehensive factors 0.60 1.12 1.64 All comprehensive factors in 2050 0.31 1.192 2.1 3.2 The analyses for foodstuff security of Tibet Autonomous Region Based on the model of development described above, combining the fact of Tibet and structure of foodstuff consumption of inhabitant to count the relation between demand and supply of Tibet’s foodstuff. And research the problem of foodstuff security of Tibet which affected by structure foodstuff consumption, analyze the policy of Tibet for future foodstuff to provide basis for making the policy of foodstuff to activate the mostly weak region of west of our country. The foodstuff consumption of the inhabitants of Tibet grows continuously since 1990. the foodstuff consumption increases from183.63kg per person in 1990 to 286.66kg per person in 2013(investigated data is 269.02kg, lower than data of Stat. Almanac a little), the average speed of growth is 3.781 percent every year; the population of Tibet increases from 218.05 ten thousand to 253.70 ten thousand people, the average speed of growth is 1.27 percent every year; the output of foodstuff increases from 3170 kg/hm2 to 4934 kg/hm2，the average speed o f growth is 3.76 every year. The coefficient of change of foodstuff output is 1.501 in 2013, which for per person is 1.504（is1 in 1990）， exceeds DÖÖs. There are more instable factors about foodstuff output of China in Model Shaw, so intend to take the coefficient of change of foodstuff output in 2025 is 1.12 for the future of Tibet’s foodstuff, and the coefficient of change of tillable field acreage is 0.031, and which is 1.192 and 0.023 separately in 2050. To take the scheme, which is above the average and keep the speed of growth of population, that is percent 1.04 Summarized above, it is forecasted that the status of demand and supply for foodstuff of Tibet Autonomous Region in 2025 and 2050 such as table 5. Tab. 5 the demand of foodstuff to be forecasted in Tibet Autonomous Region Proportion of demand and Quantity of demand (T) Quantity of supply (T) supply 2025 2050 2025 2050 2025 2050 Level 1 Level 2 Level 1 Level 2 Population 313.20 405.65 Minimum 41907.72 21484.31 0.73 0.63 0.29 0.25 (ten thousand people) Level 1 57513.07 74490.34 Average 78227.74 82610.64 1.36 1.18 1.11 0.96 Level 2 66140.03 85663.90 Max. 114547.76 145538.88 1.99 1.73 1.95 1.70

* the foodstuff of supply in the whole region , which means the foodstuff output of the whole region to be forecasted according to the status of labor force and tillable field , it is not included the foodstuff which import from other regions.

It shows it keeps quite high speed of growth of population in the whole region in the table 5. The minimum proportion of foodstuff of supply and demand of Tibet in 2025 and 2050 is separately 0.63 and 0.25(the level of consumption is 2). If analyze according to the level of consumption, the minimum of proportion of supply and demand is 0.73 and 0.29, in fact, generally account the foodstuff production of a region according to the average (i.e. mathematical expectancy), the minimum of proportion of supply and demand is separately 1.18 and 0.96(level 2) in 2025 and 2050. i.e. the whole foodstuff still ensure foodstuff security of the whole region in 2025 without any external foodstuff, and the short of foodstuff supply about percent 4 in 2050, which is easy to settle by trading. In fact, there is most part of foodstuff consumption of inhabitants of Tibet for depending on importing foodstuff. Especially there is a biggish market in Tibet for inner land rice and flour etc. foodstuff, the forecast of table 5, which based on the inhabitants consumption of the whole local foodstuff, and surplus would be augment if considered the import for external foodstuff.

4. The countermeasure and advice of future foodstuff of Tibet Autonomous Region The problem of foodstuff of Tibet Autonomous Region, it is not only short of foodstuff, but also bad quality\ much overstock and difficult to sale. The inhabitants of Tibet depends on more the rice and flour that imported from the inner land for the change of food structure of inhabitants, and the proportion of local foodstuff and inhabitants foodstuff consumption is only percent 42.54. So the surplus of local foodstuff is biggish. On the other hand, the demand for meat and milk increase continually in the inhabitant living consumption, which requires the whole region to strength the development industry of animal husbandry. But mostly meadow is overload and natural meadow degenerate badly, looking from natural meadow using of the whole region, the flexibility and space for developing industry of animal husbandry of plain is limit, if without increasing devotion for constructing meadow. There are much surplus foodstuff in the rural areas, that supplies ensuring for feedstuff for the industry of animal husbandry which be feed in the house. For this, I table some proposals for developing of future foodstuff of Tibet Autonomous Region: （5） It is not suitable for developing chemical agriculture. Tibet Autonomous Region belongs to environment sensitive zone, although it can increase the output for overuse of pesticide and chemical fertilizer in some degree, it is disadvantage for protecting and improving the level of ecology system health, and for the climate and environment of Tibet itself, it is impossible for setting up case of foodstuff for trading, which likes Jianghan Plain, Szechwan Basin and North China Plain etc. kinds of bases. The brand of foodstuff of Tibet should be pour natural and no pollution, so it is not suitable for depending on large-scale using of chemical energy to improve the output. i.e. the foodstuff production should not to be taken improving output one-sided as the aim , and should focus on decreasing pollution caused by pesticide and chemical fertilizer, creating green organic foodstuff and developing characteristic advantage resource. （2）It should not construct any more bases of foodstuff on a large scale. Construct the base for foodstuff producing, which is the assurance of foodstuff of region stable and improving it, also is one of main countermeasures for policy of our country for foodstuff. Our country strengthen to construct the base of foodstuff which for trading and to protect it long time that make our countries’ foodstuff stable on the base of more supply after self-sufficient. And the construction that played a very important role for improving the foodstuff output of Tibet, and ensuring the foodstuff security of region. Especially the base construction of “Yi Jiang Liang He (the Yarlung Zangbo River and other two rivers)” for foodstuff producing of Tibet that prepared well ahead for stabilizing the foodstuff of Tibet Autonomous Region. It is focus mainly on the south of Tibet and river valley zone that along the river of southeast of Tibet, where more easy to develop agriculture of Tibet and it has already developed well; on the other hand, the foodstuff producing is limited more severe for special natural conditions of Tibet, and quality of wheat of Tibet is relatively poor. So the inhabitants take external flour as main consumption and local wheat used for feedstuff many time. Therefore should not invest again on setting up large-scale and high producing stable foodstuff base, and should be established in available base and improving the quantity of foodstuff of region. Along with the foodstuff of Tibet reaches more supply after self-sufficient day by day, the marginal utility of the farmer producing foodstuff decrease continually, and also the inhabitants’ dependence on the local lowers continually. As it as a prerequisite, it does not accord with the fact to emphasis on more self-sufficient on foodstuff and to develop low-quality foodstuff. In fact, it would promote the development of ’s rural area. The setup of Qinghai-Tibet railway and be open to traffic in the future that would strengthen relation between Tibet and inner land, the adjustment of industry structure should be a complementary with main agricultural area in the inner land, and brings into play the advantage resource and characteristic of Tibet. (3) Many households had little no-agricultural income and few livestock. Nnearly three quarters of the households (73.27%) had food insecurity. Households headed by females (AOR = 3.47, 93% CI:1.68, 13.21), lack of education (AOR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.46, 4.60), family size of <2 (AOR = 2.39, 95% CI: 1.21,4.70), family size of >7 (AOR = 13.23,95% CI:6.18, 28.32), few or absence of livestock (AOR = 5.60, 95% CI:1.28, 24.43), absence of income from off-farm activities (AOR = 3.12, 95% CI:1.53, 6.36), lack of irrigation (AOR = 3.54, 95% CI:2.14, 5.18) and lack of perennial income (AOR = 3.15, 95% CI:1.88, 5.27) were factors associated with food insecurity. （4）Strengthen the development of industry of animal husbandry in the rural area. The farmers (herdsman) of Tibet are used for depending on more meat and milk etc. products. We discovered from the investment, for the slower development of industry of animal husbandry in the rural area. The consumption of inhabitants for meat and milk in the rural area, which is not supplied effectively, and the surplus foodstuff is difficult to transform. Propose the government lead the farmers to strengthen developing industry of animal husbandry, on the one side, fast surplus foodstuff to be transformed; on the other hand, ensure the meat and milk to be supplied for the inhabitants of rural area, and promote the development of economy of Tibet’s rural area. （5）Strengthen to support basic research of foodstuff science and the machining enterprises. At present, many farmers always store their rich foodstuff in the house for lower price of foodstuff, that is not good for increase their income. Propose the government to strengthen the devoting for basic research of foodstuff science , and analyze the main component, structure of nutrition and the advantage of gene etc.(Especially highland barley), and seek the value for making medicine and edible value of Tibet’s foodstuff, to raise the notability of foodstuff in the international market, and support developing foodstuff machining enterprises to increase the surcharge of the local foodstuff, put the special local product---highland barley of Tibet and other foodstuff forward the world. （6）Control population appropriately and ensure the foodstuff security at specific futurity period. In fact, the crisis of foodstuff is in existence for the high- speed growth of Tibet’s population. According to the average to forecast the growth rate o f Tibet’s population which be exceed percent 1.04 in 2050, if can't control it effectively. And under enormous pressure of population, the crisis of foodstuff would be appear, therefore, to control population effectively it is one of countermeasures for ensuring the foodstuff security of Tibet.

5．Conclusion and discussion

There is much applied significance to use model SEI to forecast supply of foodstuff. But the foodstuff producing affected by the level of management, the change of climate and soil degenerate etc. factors, its uncertainty which is very high. For the special area of Tibet like that, the inhabitants depend on fewer foodstuffs in their food consumption and more depend on meat and milk. Construction of meadow and development of industry of animal husbandry, that is very important for ensuring the foodstuff of the whole region. It must base upon local fact for making policy and developing economy for future foodstuff of Tibet, and seek the way and countermeasure that be suitable for the characteristic of the region.

Acknowledgement: The authors acknowledge the sponsorship of “A Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions（PAPD）”, National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 70803020), National Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of China (No. XZ1112), Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection (No. 201209032) to X. Li. Thanks also go to the Presidents of many Township Commune and other officials in Tibet Township People’s Committee for showing a serious interest in this research. Special thanks to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.

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