[ BEHAVIOR & BELIEF STUART VYSE Stuart Vyse is a and author of Believing in Magic: The of , which won the Book Award of the American Psychological Association. He is a fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.

Fate: Inventing Reasons for the Things That Happen

n April 2016, Houston, Texas, love, people often see the hand of fate at and Kyle, a technician, took care of was struck by a massive flood that work. A Jewish single person is some- her. Eventually they fell in love and Iclaimed seven lives. On his blog times said to be searching for his or her got engaged. Meanwhile, years earlier End of the American Dream, Michael bashert. The common meaning of this Kyle had been diagnosed with kid- Snyder noted that this was the “Eighth Yiddish word is soul mate, but its origi- ney disease, and by coincidence it was historic flood in this country since the nal meaning is “destiny or fate.” On the discovered that Ashley was a match. end of September.” While other writers other hand, “star-crossed” lovers—the Without hesitation, she donated a kid- pointed to global warming as a likely most famous of all being Shakespeare’s ney to her future husband, and both explanation for such extreme weather, made a speedy recovery. They were to Snyder saw a biblical sign: be married this past summer (“Couple

So why is this happening? Some Getting Married . . .” 2016).According believe that “climate change” is to the report, Ashley believes that it was responsible for these bizarre weather all meant to be. “What are the chances patterns, others are pointing the Humans appear to see that he would just so happen to be finger at El Nino, and yet others working when I was sick and that’s how believe that this is a sign that we are fate in many places, our relationship bloomed, and I was the approaching “the last days” described in the Bible. What everybody should and science is here to one to donate the kidney to him?” be able to agree on is that what tell us why—or at we are witnessing is highly, highly The Science of Fate unusual. (Snyder 2016) least how. You might guess there wouldn’t be As it turns out, Snyder is the author much psychological research on belief of several books about the coming rap- in fate, destiny, or purpose, but you’d ture, so it is possible his interpretation be wrong. There is a surprisingly deep was influenced by financial self-interest. vein of studies on these topics in both But he is not the only person seeing re- children and adults. A recent poll ligious meaning in the weather. During Romeo and Juliet—are astrologically found that 38 percent of Americans the Houston floods of May 2015, some doomed from the start. As deserving of believe natural disasters are signs from conservative observers claimed that the happiness as the lovers may be, things God, but more abstract notions of city was being punished for rampant are bound to go badly. fate, destiny, or purpose are also very “witchcraft and sodomy,” pointing out In an interesting recent case of common (cited in Banerjee and Bloom that Houston had a “sodomite mayor” seeing destiny in love, Indiana couple 2015). Humans appear to see fate in (Haraldsson 2015). Ashley Goodwin and Kyle Rebman many places, and science is here to tell In the happier world of falling in met when Ashley was in the hospital us why—or at least how.

24 Volume 40 Issue 5 | Skeptical Inquirer Children Find a Lot of Reasons in the number of teleological explana- be more “significant” than adults, who was the first developmental tions given by children from religious eventually come to find many of these psychologist to propose that children and nonreligious families. The same things trivial; and with age, people be- see physical objects as designed for a was true of the adults. Although adults come aware of the social norms that purpose, and subsequent research has had much lower levels of intentional label these explanations superstitious. borne him out. Psychologist Deborah explanations, their responses were not Interestingly, Banerjee and Bloom Kelemen of Boston University has related to their level of religiosity. take no stance on whether identifying argued that young children exhibit Banerjee and Bloom concluded a design or purpose necessarily requires “promiscuous teleology” (a phrase only that children have a broad tendency thinking about a designer or a god. an academic could love), meaning to animate the world with purposeful They point out that it is possible to they find goals and purposes in almost explanations. They suggested that this infer the purpose of a functional object everything (Kelemen 1999). For exam- tendency diminishes over time because (e.g., a door knob) without thinking ple, although older children and adults children judge a broader set of events to about a designer. understand that only living things have goals, young children are less exclusive. A seven- or eight-year-old might say that a mountain is shaped the way it is so that animals have something to climb on. Kelemen suggests that chil- dren start out with this promiscuous teleology as a kind of cognitive build- ing block and that as they age, they learn to narrow the identification of goals and purposes to biological things. In addition to finding purpose in the design of objects, children also see meaning in events. In a 2015 study, Konika Banerjee and Paul Bloom of Figure 1. Typical life event and explanations used by Banerjee and Bloom (2015). Yale University tested children’s pref- erences for natural and purposeful ex- planations for life events. They selected TEST TRIALS CONTROL TRIALS three groups of participants: young 100% children five to seven years old, older children eight to ten years old, and 90% adults. The participants were given a 80% series of simple life events, such as “Bri- ana’s cat ran away.” Figure 1 shows an 70% example scenario. For each of these life events, children 60% were given the choice between only a natural explanation (e.g., “because she 50% left the door open”) and a natural and 40% teleological explanation (e.g., “because she left the door open and to teach her 30% responsibility”). Banerjee and Bloom Two Explanations Selected Explanations Two found that the majority of younger 20% children chose explanations that in- cluded an underlying intention, but the 10% preference for intentional explanations 0% decreased with age. In a study such as this, you might 5–7 Year Olds 8–10 Year Olds Adults imagine the children who chose the A graph based on the results from Banerjee and Bloom (2015, Experiment 1). The descending yellow bars purposeful explanations all came from show that preference for purpose or goal-related explanations decreases with age. (The red bars were a con- religious households, but Banerjee and trol condition designed to determine whether young children simply had a preference for two explanations Bloom found exposure to religion did over one. The results suggest that it was the teleological nature of the answer that appealed to the children, not matter. There was no difference not merely the number of explanations.)

Skeptical Inquirer | September/October 2016 25 Fate Doesn’t Need a God The study by Norenzayan and Lee the universe, of species, and of human The situations used by Banerjee and revealed two distinct forms people’s behavior do not make room for fate or Bloom were designed to appeal to notions of fate can take. The first is destiny. These concepts would require children, and as a result they were not the traditional one: God, a deity who some entity or designer standing apart very good tests of adult beliefs about acts as an agent controlling events on from the natural world and yet con- intention or fate. But several other Earth. The second was simply a belief trolling it. This is not a scientific idea, studies show that when events are that—without reference to an external but it is one many people still believe— considered unusual or personally sig- agent—the universe is interconnected from a very young age. nificant, adults also see meaning, fate, and aimed at certain outcomes. In fact, Why? or intention. Furthermore, although the cultural difference in the inter- This is where things get murky. Sev- religious people are more likely to see connectedness form of destiny—most eral researchers in this field hoped to destiny in important events (i.e., the often seen in Asian Canadians—was a get to the bottom of why this fatalistic hand of God), many atheists also see more powerful factor than religion. view is so common, but their answers intention in the world. Norenzayan and Lee also showed have been all rather speculative. Deb- how the interconnected universe con- orah Kelemen’s observations of pro- cept could be induced by suggestion. In miscuous teleology have led her to con- a separate experiment, European Ca- clude that young children are “intuitive nadians who were primed by reading a theists” who see design in the natural short essay about the “butterfly effect” world—a characteristic that poses a later gave more fatalistic explanations challenge for science education, which Our scientific for unlikely events. should be aimed at creating a natural In a 2014 study, Banerjee and understanding of the world, free of de- understanding of the Bloom made things even more real by signers and gods (Kelemen 2004). But origins of the universe, asking participants to think about an Kelemen is careful not to speculate on of species, and of human actual important life event they had whether children’s tendency to see pur- experienced. In this case, 53 percent pose in the world is due to nature or behavior do not make of God-believing participants and 24 nurture. room for fate or destiny. percent of nonbelievers attributed their In contrast, in his (very interesting personal event to fate. Even among and entertaining) book The Belief In- people who were described as “ardent stinct, evolutionary psychologist Jesse atheists,” 21 percent saw some form Bering (2012) argues that our tendency of fate involved in their lives (Banerjee to see design is an “adaptive illusion” and Bloom 2014, Study 2). that stems from the uniquely human In a similar investigation, Bethany ability to create a “theory of mind,” hy- Heywood and Jesse Bering found potheses about other people’s thoughts that—consistent with previous For example, in a study of students and motives. So Bering comes down on research—theists were more likely the side of nature, suggesting that our who were either European Canadians to explain difficult life experiences by or East Asian Canadians, Ara Noren- intuitive theism is a built-in product of reference to some external intention natural selection. zayan and Albert Lee asked partici- (e.g., “God’s plan”). But fully half of pants to read scenarios of very unlikely Teasing apart nature and nurture the thirty-four atheists in the study also events and then describe how much is always a difficult task. Even the gave at least one answer that implied each event could be attributed to fate five-year-old children in Banerjee and a purpose to the events (e.g., “it was or destiny. Norenzayan and Lee ex- Bloom’s studies have been in the world meant to be”; Heywood and Bering amined two demographic factors, both for five years, listening to adults yam- 2014). of which affected people’s judgments mering on, day in and day out. There of fate: religion (Christian vs. nonre- must be some socializing effect of all Why All This Fate? ligious) and culture (European Cana- that talk. dian vs. Asian Canadian). As expected, So, children exhibit “promiscuous tele- A recent cautionary tale shows just Christians were more likely than non- ology,” and even ardent atheists often how careful we must be when making religious participants to point to fate as see destiny in the things that happen. assumptions about nature vs. nurture. a cause, but Asian Canadians—regard- Despite the fact that—if I have not For years, psychology professors have less of whether they were religious or already made this point, perhaps now been teaching their students about a nonreligious—also were more likely to is the time to say—ideas of fate are classic 1977 study by Andrew Meltzoff cite destiny as a cause (Norenzayan and supernatural or paranormal. Our sci- and M. Keith Moore, which purported Lee 2010). entific understanding of the origins of to show that newborn babies were ca-

26 Volume 40 Issue 5 | Skeptical Inquirer STUART VYSE BEHAVIOR & BELIEF ] pable of imitating facial expressions, a can say that for whatever reason, many Heywood, Bethany T., and Jesse M. Bering. strong indication of an inherited ability 2014. ‘Meant to be’: How religious beliefs young children see a design in the ob- and cultural religiosity affect the implicit (Meltzoff and Moore 1977). jects and events in the world—a design bias to think teleologically. Religion, Brain & Meltzoff and Moore’s research al- that goes far beyond science. Whether Behavior 4(3): 183–201. ways seemed a bit too good to be true, our intuitive theism is a side effect of a Jarrett, Christian. 2016. A classic finding about newborn babies’ imitation skills is proba- and now a new, more rigorous study built-in human adaptive advantage, as bly wrong. BPS Research Digest (May 20). in Current Biology shows the original Bering suggests, or is learned through Available online at http://digest.bps.org. results were probably wrong (Oosten- socialization, this tendency to see the uk/2016/05/a-classic-finding-about-new- broek et al. 2016). A report on the new born-babies.html. hand of fate represents an important Kelemen, Deborah. 1999. Function, goals and study in Research Digest puts it this way: obstacle to achieving a clearer, more intention: Children’s teleological reasoning ■ “Based on their results, the researchers scientific understanding of the world. about objects. Trends in Cognitive Sciences said that the idea of ‘innate imitation 3(12): 461–468. References modules’” and other such concepts ———. 2004. Are children ‘intuitive theists’? Reasoning about purpose and design in founded on the ideal of neonatal imita- Banerjee, Konika, and Paul Bloom. 2014. Why nature. Psychological Science 15(5): 295–301. did this happen to me? Religious believ- tion “should be modified or abandoned Meltzoff, Andrew N., and M. Keith Moore. ers’ and non-believers’ teleological reasoning 1977. Imitation of facial and manual ges- altogether” (Jarrett 2016). about life events. Cognition 133(1): 277–303. tures by human neonates. Science 198(4312): ———. 2015. ‘Everything happens for a rea- Human behavior is always a mixture 75–78. of nature and nurture, and determining son’: Children’s beliefs about purpose in life events. Child Development 86(2): 503–518. Norenzayan, Ara, and Albert Lee. 2010. It was the proportions of each is rarely easy. Bering, Jesse. 2012. The Belief Instinct: The meant to happen: Explaining cultural varia- So when it comes to our tendency to Psychology of Souls, Destiny, and the Meaning of tions in fate attributions. Journal of Personality and 98(5): 702–720. see purpose, destiny, or fate in the uni- Life. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. “Couple Getting Married after She Donates Oostenbroek, Janine, Thomas Suddendorf, verse, we must be cautious in our inter- Kidney to Him.” 2016. Wfla.com (April Mark Nielsen, et al. 2016. Comprehensive pretations. The study of European and 14). Available online at http://wfla. longitudinal study challenges the existence Asian Canadians, for example, suggests com/2016/04/14/couple-getting-married-af- of neonatal imitation in humans. Current ter-she-donates-kidney-to-him/. Biology 26(10): 1334–1338. that culture affects the type of fate that Haraldsson, Hrafnkell. 2015. Right-wingers Snyder, Michael. 2016. Houston flooding is the people see in the world—God versus an claim Texas flooding caused not by climate 8th historic flood to hit America since the interconnected universe—but as yet, we change but witchcraft and sodomy. Politicus end of September. End of the American Dream have less information about how culture USA (May 29). Available online at http:// (April 18). Available online at http://end www.politicususa.com/2015/05/29/texas- oftheamericandream.com/archives/houston- and socialization affect our basic ten- flooding-caused-climate-change-witchcraft- flooding-is-the-8th-historic-flood-to-hit- dency to see fate. At the very least we sodomy.html. america-since-the-end-of-september.

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