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An All-Hazards Vulnerability Assessment of Arthur's

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An All-Hazards Vulnerability Assessment of Arthur's AN ALL-HAZARDS VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ARTHUR’S PASS TOWNSHIP, SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND _____________________________________________ A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Hazards and Disaster Management at the University of Canterbury by Kate Dundas _____________________________________________ UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY 2008 ii FRONTISPIECE Arthur’s Pass township, South Island, New Zealand iii ABSTRACT Arthur’s Pass township, located close to the Main Divide of the central Southern Alps, is highly exposed to natural hazards and has been affected by hazard events since it was founded in 1906. The village is a small alpine township, with a permanent resident population of approximately 54. Its location within the Arthur’s Pass National Park and on the main road between the east and west coasts of the South Island makes it popular with tourists, trampers, climbers and skiers, which can expand the local population to up to 500 people. Its position on the Bealey River floodplain within a highly dynamic tectonic and geomorphic environment makes it vulnerable to earthquakes, landslides, rockfalls, debris flows, heavy rain and snow, river flooding and riverbed erosion. Previous investigations on natural hazards in the area are limited to the Otira Gorge and State Highway 73, with little focus on hazards affecting the village area. Natural hazard events are persistent and frequent in the Arthur’s Pass region and the village is susceptible to being isolated from external resources during and after a disaster, making it necessary for the village to be self-sufficient during a large-scale disaster. The hazards were identified and analysed using aerial photographs and satellite images, historical data, supported by in-field reconnaissance at various times of the year to record seasonal changes. Hazard mapping used the same methods to illustrate the spatial and volumetric hazard changes over a range of time scales; >2% annual probability of occurrence (0-50 years recurrence interval), 2%-0.2% annual probability of occurrence (50-500 years recurrence interval) and <0.2% annual probability of occurrence (500+ years recurrence interval). The hazard maps show that that most hazards are not restricted to a specific temporal or spatial scale, and that they are often interdependent. It is difficult to determine the precise effects that climate change and global warming will have on natural hazards, but they are expected to increase the unpredictability of hazard events and alter weather patterns significantly in the long-term. A visitor questionnaire undertaken in the village indicated that many visitors do not regard the hazards as severe enough to represent a legitimate threat; hence the public perceptions of natural hazards are affecting the vulnerability of the village. Additionally, many people do not feel confident that they would know what to do if a disaster did occur in the village. This level of awareness can be improved by providing more information to visitors and displaying details on emergency procedures. The village does not currently have an emergency plan that specifies particular preparedness and response procedures; it relies heavily on a plan adapted from Mt. Cook/Aoraki village. Current emergency management in the village could be improved by the production of an emergency plan specifically for the region, the use of education schemes and information sessions, and the installation of warning signs. The provision of this detailed hazard investigation and hazard maps is intended to assist emergency managers to identify, prioritise, mitigate the hazards to reduce the vulnerability of the village to natural hazards in the short- and long-terms. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many people have contributed both personally and professionally to this research whom I would like to thank. At the University of Canterbury, I would like to thank my supervisor Tim Davies for always providing an insightful perspective, for never being too harsh in his criticism and for reassuring me when I was inevitably panicking too much. Also, thank you to Jarg Pettinga, John Southward and Pat Roberts in the department for their miscellaneous help. I received partial funding for this project from the Mason Trust which was of great assistance and very much appreciated, so thank you for that. I have had assistance from a number of people and organisations over the last two years. I would like to thank the following people for supplying information, data, photos, advice and/or anecdotes, without which my research would not have been possible: - Dawn Davison and Helen Grant at Environment Canterbury. - Elaine Fouhy at NIWA. - Mauri and Eileen McSaveney at GNS Science. - Dion Douglas and Wilson Brown at the Selwyn District Council. - Wayne Costello and Vicky Heslop at the Department of Conservation Visitor Centre in Arthur’s Pass. - Alan Causer and Mr Beaven of the Arthur’s Pass Association. Special thanks must go to the crew (Bob, Jan and Nic in particular) at Arthur’s Pass Mountain House Backpackers for being so welcoming and making my stays in Arthur’s Pass so enjoyable and comfortable. On a personal note, thanks must go to my friends, in particular Anita, for always being willing to meet for a coffee and discuss the apprehension one feels when writing a thesis. To my dear friend Sheree, for always being so supportive and making sure I looked after myself, especially while Olly was away, and for taking my mind off my thesis when I really needed it. Thanks also to Monique, Mel, Chops and my other friends for keeping me sane during my uni days. To my late grandmother, Jean Dundas, for her contribution to my postgraduate education. To Olly, for providing a welcome distraction when it was needed, for going away just long enough for me to get some work done, for your offers of proofreading and/or colouring-in and for putting up with the moody, grumpy, stressed-out version of me, especially during those last few months. You can have your social life back now. And lastly to my parents and Shannon, for your support (albeit long-distance). Most importantly I have to thank Ma and Pa for their unwavering support, not only financial, but in every other way possible. I hope you know how much I appreciate the help you have given me over the last 25 years, and I hope I haven’t made you bankrupt. v TABLE OF CONTENTS TITLE PAGE i FRONTISPIECE ii ABSTRACT iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv TABLE OF CONTENTS v LIST OF FIGURES xii LIST OF TABLES xv CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT....................................................................................... 1 1.2 AIM AND LIMIT OF SCOPE.................................................................................. 2 1.4 THESIS STRUCTURE............................................................................................. 2 1.5 TERMINOLOGY - RISK, HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY ........................... 5 CHAPTER 2 – THE ARTHUR'S PASS STUDY AREA 2.1 LOCATION AND STATISTICS............................................................................. 7 2.2 HISTORICAL REVIEW........................................................................................ 10 2.3 PHYSICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES ...................................... 11 2.3.1 Geology ........................................................................................................... 11 2.3.1.1 Lithology ..................................................................................................... 11 2.3.1.2 Structural Features....................................................................................... 13 2.3.2 Geomorphology............................................................................................... 14 2.3.3 Climate ............................................................................................................ 15 2.3.3.1 Temperatures ............................................................................................... 15 2.3.3.2 Rainfall ........................................................................................................ 17 2.3.3.3 Snowfall....................................................................................................... 18 2.3.4 Vegetation........................................................................................................ 19 2.4 CURRENT AND FUTURE TOWN DEVELOPMENTS ...................................... 20 2.5 PREVIOUS RESEARCH AND THEORY ............................................................ 21 2.5.1 Seismic Hazards.............................................................................................. 21 2.5.2 Mass movement hazards.................................................................................. 23 vi 2.5.3 Meteorological hazards................................................................................... 24 2.5.4 Flooding hazards, erosion and sedimentation.................................................. 26 2.6 RESEARCH PRACTICE METHODS ................................................................... 27 CHAPTER 3 – SEISMIC HAZARDS 3.1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................... 28 3.2 ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES............................................................................. 28 3.3 SEISMICITY AT ARTHUR’S PASS .................................................................... 29 3.4 FAULTS IN THE ARTHUR’S PASS REGION...................................................
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