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Sniper Target Tracking Analysis of John F. Kennedy Assassination Nicholas R ARTICLE Original Article Sniper Target Tracking Analysis of John F. Kennedy Assassination Nicholas R. Nalli I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, Maryland, USA ABSTRACT ARTICLE INFORMATION US President John F. Kennedy was assassinated by a sniper while riding in an open limousine in Dallas, Received: 7 June 2018 Texas on 22 November 1963. Although official investigations established that three shots were fired from a Revised: 19 September 2018 sniper’s nest in the Texas School Book Depository, a complete reconstruction of the sequence of shots was not Accepted: 14 Oct 2018 thoroughly established. Subsequent research has led to a consensus that the first shot missed, but a complete Published: 28 Nov 2018 explanation has eluded investigators. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the sniper targeting effort, Citation: Nalli NR. Sniper Target including the advantages of the sniper’s nest and eventual marksmanship difficulty. It is quantitatively shown Tracking Analysis of John F. Kennedy Assassination. J Assoc Crime Scene that the three-dimensional target tracking was significantly reduced as the motorcade proceeded away from Reconstr. 2018;22:11-21. the sniper’s nest. The reduction in apparent motion of the target correlates with the increasing accuracy of the three shots, suggesting this variable plausibly factored into the enigmatic hit-and-miss pattern. Keywords: assassination, exterior ballistics, President John F. Kennedy, Warren Commission, shooting Author contact: reconstruction, crime scene reconstruction, forensic science [email protected] Introduction US President John F. Kennedy was assassinated overlooking the motorcade route. Oswald, while riding in an open limousine within a who had only worked there for a couple of motorcade through the city of Dallas, Texas on weeks, went missing after the assassination Friday, 22 November 1963. President Kennedy and was apprehended in connection with the had appeared in numerous such motorcades murder of Dallas police officer J. D. Tippit routinely during his presidency as well as during (in the neighborhood where he happened to the 1960 presidential campaign. The Dallas live) that same afternoon. Oswald himself motorcade had proceeded without incident up would be murdered two days later while being until the end of the route when the President transferred to the Dallas County Jail by a local was suddenly shot twice by a sniper at 12:30 vigilante named Jack Ruby. With the death of local time in Dealey Plaza. The primary (and the only suspect in the crime, President Lyndon eventually, only) suspect in the crime was Lee B. Johnson (Kennedy’s successor) would Oswald, an employee of the Texas School Book go on to establish a bipartisan Presidential Depository (TSBD), which had a warehouse Commission by Executive Order. Johnson J Assoc Crime Scene Reconstr. 2018:22 11 WWW.ACSR.ORG appointed Supreme Court Chief Justice Earl was determined through physical evidence and Warren to lead it, thus it became informally eyewitness testimony that 3 shots had been fired known as the “Warren Commission” or “WC” at the motorcade, but the physical evidence for short. Based on its investigation, the WC from only 2 of these bullets were recovered from would determine in 1964 from the available the crime scene. This implies that one of the evidence that Lee Harvey Oswald was the shots completely missed the limousine (and was lone assassin, firing three shots at the President never found as a result). The Commission was from a “sniper’s nest” window located in the agnostic about which shot missed [1, p. 117], southeast (SE) corner of the 6th floor of the but under the general assumption that the third TSBD building overlooking Houston and shot struck President Kennedy in the head, it Elm Streets. The Commission considered the nevertheless subtly disfavored the scenario of question of a conspiracy, but ultimately found the first shot missing [1, p. 111] since it appeared no compelling evidence of one [1, p. 374]. to be implausible that the first shot, by far the The murder weapon found at the crime scene closest of the three, would have missed [3, p. (and ballistically matched to recovered bullet 468]. This implicit assumption would lead to fragments) was an Italian military Carcano a widely held view that the assassin had only Fucile di Fanteria (infantry rifle), Modello 91/38 approximately 6 seconds to fire the three shots (Model 1891/1938), manufactured in 1940 at [18], requiring two recycles of the bolt-action the Royal Arms Factory in Terni, Italy 1 and Carcano rifle. Although this would not have owned by Lee Oswald. been impossible for Oswald, who had served Before the Commission’s establishment, in the United States Marine Corps (USMC) concurrent with its investigation, and subse- and qualified as “Sharpshooter” with the M1 quent to the publication of the Report, vocal Garand rifle on targets more than twice the skeptics proliferated and espoused “conspiracy range in Dallas, it nevertheless was not trivial theories.” Some, but not all, of these arose out either, given the target was moving obliquely of genuine inquiry concerning various findings to the line-of-sight and target reacquisition in the Commission’s report [2–4]. In response would be required after each cycle of the to these skeptics, additional independent US bolt. However, subsequent research, some of federal government investigations would be it based upon the earlier frames of the 8 mm commissioned [3, 4], along with other non- home movie by Abraham Zapruder (i.e., the government investigations [e.g., 5–13], each “Zapruder Film”), coupled with eyewitness of which ultimately affirmed the WC’s basic testimony (including Governor Connally’s), findings given the overwhelming physical has led to a consensus that it was in fact the and circumstantial evidence.2 Although the first shot that missed [2, 3, 10, 15, 16, 19, 20]. House Select Committee on Assassinations This finding was an important development (HSCA) reached the conclusion that President following the publication of the WC Report, Kennedy “was probably assassinated as a because it increased the assassination time span result of a conspiracy” [14, p. 1] based on from approximately 6 seconds to in excess of disputed “acoustics evidence” [4, 15–17], they 8 seconds, which significantly reduced the nevertheless corroborated from the remaining presumed difficulty of the shots [2, 3, 18]. evidence that the two shots that actually hit and However, the increased assassination killed President Kennedy (along with a missed timeframe (8+ s) reintroduced the earlier shot) were fired from the sniper’s nest. conundrum considered by the WC, namely the One of the early difficulties in the WC proposition that the same sniper who would Report that would lead to criticism was an bull’s eye Kennedy in the head a moment later, odd hit-and-miss pattern to the three shots. It would not only miss Kennedy while he was just below the TSBD window, but all the other occupants in the limousine as well, indeed the 1. www.MilitaryFactory.com, Carcano Modello 1891 (M91) entire limousine. As a result of this, various Bolt-Action Service Rifle/Carbine (1892); https://www.militaryfactory.com/smallarms/detail. researchers have proposed a number of different asp?smallarms id=443 reasons to explain why the first shot missed. 2. In fact, more than 50 separate pieces of evidence implicate Some, including the WC [1, p. 111] and others Lee Oswald [3, pp. 952–969]. [e.g., 19, p. 146], have suggested the first shot WWW.ACSR.ORG 12 J Assoc Crime Scene Reconstr. 2018:22 may have been deflected by the southern live purposes: The 6th floor southwest (SW) window, oak tree that obstructed a portion of the street the Dal-Tex Building, and the “Grassy Knoll.” [2]. More recently it has been argued that it The SW window is a location some eyewitnesses may have been deflected far downrange (thus reported seeing a man with a rifle [3, 16] and wounding a bystander-witness who was located some conspiracy authors have claimed is visible near the triple underpass) by an overhanging in a photo taken by a Dallas Morning News traffic light assembly [20], or that the shot photographer [e.g., 21, pp. 208]. Note that the simply missed the limo entirely without being SW window presents a counter option available deflected by an obstacle, then disintegrating to a TSBD shooter (including Oswald), one upon direct collision with the asphalt [10, 15]. that at first glance might seem better suited This article is not intended to favor explicitly for shots down Elm Street given its closer any of these three mutually exclusive scenarios, proximity. The Grassy Knoll, of course, is the but rather seeks to quantify an additional place most conspiracy proponents, including variable that ultimately factors into all of them, the HSCA, place a second gunman [e.g., 16, namely the targeting difficulties confronted by 22–26]. Although no physical evidence was ever the would-be assassin in Dealey Plaza. recovered from this location and it has otherwise generally been discredited for multiple reasons Analysis [3, 4, 9, 11, 12, 15, 17, 19, 27]. Some have Careful examination of the logistics of the conjectured that the Dal-Tex building, located Kennedy assassination (detailed below) suggests on the far right side of the figure, may have had that the “sniper’s nest” provided an optimal a sniper [e.g., 21, pp. 21, 184–185], [25, p. 55], vantage point and targeting range for carrying so it has also been included for comparison. out the assassination in Dealey Plaza (Fig. 1). While there may have been a viable shot The following subsection briefly examines the from one or more of those windows and the advantages implicitly afforded by this location, forensic evidence does not necessarily rule out and this is followed by a quantitative analysis of the fatal shot being fired from a building to the actual shots as they would play out.
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