SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
Summary of Model Jose Otero, P.E. Section Leader Scenarios Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling WRAC Issues Workshop June 27, 2013 SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
Objective
• To assess the potential differences in the hydrologic response of the South Florida system as a result of differences in water demand and land use in the Lower East Coast planning area between 2010 and 2030 SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
Key Modeling Assumptions
• System Operations as of 2012, such as: – C&SF operating rules and schedules – LORS 2008 for Lake Okeechobee with estimated Adaptive Protocols – LOWSM per rule 40E-21 and 40E-22 – ERTP for WCA 3A • Current ECP, C-111 South Dade, and ACME Basin B • No future restoration projects SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
LOSA Irrigated Area (acres)
2010 2030 Permitted Permitted Everglades Agricultural 458,240 458,240 Area
Other LOSA 245,749 245,749
North Lake Shore Northeast Lake Shore Brighton Seminole Reservation St. Lucie Lower (C-44) Total 703,989 703,989 Istokpoga Lake Okeechobee N. Palm Beach L-8 Basin Service Area
WPB E. Beach & E. Canal S-4 & Shore WCD Caloosahatchee (C-43) S-236 Basins STA-1W STA-1E
Miami Canal NNR/HILLS Basin Canal Water LEC Basin Conservation Service Area 1 Area 1 STA-5 Western Roten- Holey Basin berger STA-2 WMA Land STA- STA-6 WMA 3/4 Water Big Cypress Conservation Seminole Area 2 Reservation Miccosukee Reservation
Water LEC Conservation Service n
Area 3 Area 2 a
e
c
O
c Big Cypress i t
National n
a Preserve l t
A
LEC Service Area 3
G
u
l f Everglades
o National Park
f
M
e
x
i c
o SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT LECSA Pumpage and Irrigation (mgd) Surficial Aquifer System
North Lake Shore Northeast Lake Shore Brighton Seminole Reservation St. Lucie 2010 2030 Lower (C-44) Istokpoga Lake Okeechobee N. Palm Beach Estimated Projected L-8 Basin Service Area WPB E. Beach & E. Canal S-4 & Shore WCD Caloosahatchee (C-43) S-236 Basins STA-1W STA-1E
Miami Canal NNR/HILLS Basin Canal Water LEC Basin Conservation Service Area 1 Area 1 STA-5 Western Roten- Holey Basin berger STA-2 WMA Land STA- Public Water Supply 775 891 STA-6 WMA Water 3/4 Big Cypress Conservation Seminole Area 2 Reservation Miccosukee Reservation
Water LEC Conservation Service n
Area 3 Area 2 a
e
c
O
c Domestic, Power i Big Cypress t
National n
a Preserve l t Generation, and Industrial 26 22 A
LEC Service Area 3
Self-Supply G
u
l f Everglades
o National Park
f
M
e
x
i c Agricultural and o Recreational/Landscape 508 511
Florida Bay Self-Supply 010205 Miles
Total 1,309 1,424 SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
2010 Land Use 2030 Land Use SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
Definition of Terms for Hydrologic Change
• No change or minimal change. Detectable but not significant. • Slight change: 1% of volume or 0.1 ft of stage. Not significant in most cases. • Small change: 2% of volume or 0.2 ft of stage. Significant in some cases. • Moderate change: 5% of volume or 0.5 ft of stage. Significant in many cases. • Considerable change: Significant in most cases. SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
North Lake Shore Northeast Lake Shore Brighton Lake Okeechobee Seminole Reservation St. Lucie Lower (C-44) Istokpoga Lake • Minimal change in stage Okeechobee N. Palm Beach L-8 Basin Service Area
WPB E. Beach & E. Canal Shore WCD • No change in MFL S-4 & Caloosahatchee (C-43) S-236 Basins STA-1W STA-1E Miami exceedances Canal NNR/HILLS Basin Canal Water LEC Basin Conservation Service Area 1 Area 1 STA-5 Western Roten- Holey Basin berger STA-2 WMA Land STA- STA-6 WMA 3/4 Water Caloosahatchee Estuary Big Cypress Conservation Seminole Area 2 Reservation Miccosukee Reservation • No change in MFL Water LEC Conservation Service n
Area 3 Area 2 a e exceedances c
O
c Big Cypress i t
National n
a Preserve l t • Minimal change in flows for A salinity envelope LEC Service Area 3
G
u l Everglades f
o St. Lucie Estuary National Park
f
M
e
x
i c o • Minimal change in flows for salinity envelope
Florida Bay 010205 Miles SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
North Lake Shore Northeast Lake Shore Brighton Lake Okeechobee Seminole Reservation St. Lucie Lower (C-44) Istokpoga Lake Service Area Okeechobee N. Palm Beach L-8 Basin Service Area
WPB E. Beach & E. Canal S-4 & Shore WCD Caloosahatchee (C-43) S-236 Basins STA-1W STA-1E • Slight increase in demand Miami Canal NNR/HILLS Basin Canal Water LEC Basin Conservation Service met Area 1 Area 1 STA-5 Western Roten- Holey Basin berger STA-2 WMA Land STA- STA-6 WMA 3/4 Water Big Cypress Conservation Seminole Area 2 Reservation Miccosukee Reservation
Water LEC Conservation Service n
Area 3 Area 2 a
e
c
O
c Big Cypress i t
National n
a Preserve l t
A
LEC Service Area 3
G
u l Everglades f
o National Park
f
M
e
x
i c
o
Florida Bay 010205 Miles SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
North Lake Shore Northeast Lake Shore Brighton Everglades Protection Seminole Reservation St. Lucie Lower (C-44) Istokpoga Lake Area Okeechobee N. Palm Beach L-8 Basin Service Area
WPB E. Beach & E. Canal S-4 & Shore WCD Caloosahatchee (C-43) S-236 Basins • Minimal or slight change in STA-1W STA-1E
Miami Canal NNR/HILLS Basin Canal Water LEC water depths Basin Conservation Service Area 1 Area 1 STA-5 Western Roten- Holey Basin berger STA-2 WMA Land STA- STA-6 WMA 3/4 Water Big Cypress Conservation Seminole • Minimal change in MFL Area 2 Reservation Miccosukee Reservation return frequency at one of Water LEC Conservation Service n
Area 3 Area 2 a
e
c
O the key gauges c Big Cypress i t
National n
a Preserve l t
A
LEC Service Area 3
G
u l Everglades f
o National Park
f
M
e
x
i c
o
Florida Bay 010205 Miles SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
seepage management for mining lakes not included in model SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
Everglades MFL SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
North Lake Shore Northeast Lake Shore Brighton Lower East Coast Seminole Reservation St. Lucie Lower (C-44) Istokpoga Lake Okeechobee N. Palm Beach • Small increase in regional L-8 Basin Service Area
WPB E. Beach & E. Canal S-4 & Shore WCD water supply deliveries Caloosahatchee (C-43) S-236 Basins STA-1W STA-1E
Miami Canal NNR/HILLS Basin Canal Water LEC Basin Conservation Service • More years with water Area 1 Area 1 STA-5 Western Roten- Holey Basin berger STA-2 WMA Land STA- STA-6 WMA 3/4 Water Big Cypress Conservation shortage in North Palm Seminole Area 2 Reservation Miccosukee Reservation Beach County and Service Water LEC Conservation Service n
Area 3 Area 2 a
e c Area 1 O
c Big Cypress i t
National n
a Preserve l t A • No change, zero MFL
LEC Service exceedances for Biscayne Area 3
G
u l Everglades f
o National Park f Aquifer
M
e
x
i c
o
Florida Bay 010205 Miles SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
Number of Years with Water Restrictions in LECSA Triggered by Local Wells
Service Area 2010 2030
Service Area 1 0 6
Service Area 2 12 12
Service Area 3 0 0
North Palm Beach County 0 2 SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
North Lake Shore Northeast Lake Shore Brighton Lake Worth Lagoon Seminole Reservation St. Lucie Lower (C-44) Istokpoga Lake • Small reduction in flows Okeechobee N. Palm Beach L-8 Basin Service Area WPB • Decrease in frequency of high E. Beach & E. Canal S-4 & Shore WCD Caloosahatchee (C-43) S-236 Basins STA-1W STA-1E flows Miami Canal NNR/HILLS Basin Canal Water LEC Basin Conservation Service • Increase in frequency of zero Area 1 Area 1 STA-5 Western Roten- Holey Basin berger STA-2 WMA Land STA- STA-6 WMA 3/4 Water flows Big Cypress Conservation Seminole Area 2 Reservation Miccosukee Reservation
Water Biscayne Bay LEC Conservation Service n
Area 3 Area 2 a
e
c
O
c Big Cypress i t • Small reduction in flows, National n
a Preserve l t A results same as BBCW
LEC Service Reservations Area 3
G
u l Everglades f
o National Park
f
M
e
x Florida Bay i c
o • Small reduction in flows
Florida Bay 010205 Miles SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
Summary of Assumptions
• 2030 demands within existing CUPs
• No restoration or mitigation projects
• 2030 land use changes consistent with Comprehensive Plans or permits
• Did not allow flexibility to shift from SAS to FAS during water shortages
SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
Summary of Results
• Natural Systems – Minimal changes for Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades – Improved performance of natural systems will require restoration projects – Reduction of WCA-3B stages should be prevented by required mitigation – Small decrease in stormwater to tide • Lake Okeechobee Service Area – Isolated land use changes slightly increases storage and demands met • Lower East Coast Service Area – Small increase in regional water supply – Increased water shortages in two service areas should be offset by existing FAS and RO facilities at Jupiter and Hollywood
SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT
Questions?