PESCO) Is Supplying Power to Civil Divisions of Peshawar, Mardan, Bannu, Malakand, Dera Ismail Khan, Hazara and Kohat

Executive Summary Executive Summary Peshawar Electric Supply Company (PESCO) is supplying power to civil divisions of Peshawar, Mardan, Bannu, Malakand, Dera Ismail Khan, Hazara and Kohat. This company came into existence in the year 2001 after unbundling of WAPDA system. Earlier it was known as Peshawar Area Electricity Board (AEB) in the year 2001, its distribution network comprised of fifty nine 132 kV, thirty two 66 kV sub-stations and by year 2013-14, eighty two 132 kV, eleven 66 kV and five 33 kV sub-stations have started to function in the company. Peak demand of PESCO in the year 2013-14 was recorded as; 1929 MW, energy sale was 7471 GWh and energy purchased was 11378 GWh. The shares of domestic sector and industrial sector were 60.00% and 28.78% respectively with respect to energy total sale, which is not a healthy sign. The total number of consumers in this year were 2.87 million out of which domestic consumers were 2.52, commercial were 0.29 and agricultural consumers were 0.023 million. In the year 2013-14, PESCO total sale in terms of megawatt was 1252 MW, for the domestic sector it was 783 MW while for the medium & large industries and small industries it was 415 MW and 15 MW respectively. This forecast has been computed on the basis of Power Market Survey (PMS) methodology by the PESCO (PMS) team under the supervision of planning power, (NTDCL). The year 2013-14 has been taken as base year and the forecast horizon is ten years up to 2023-24. The base year sale data (feeder wise consumer category-wise energy sale) and the expected spot loads data at the locations of different sub-stations have been collected by PESCO power market survey team. Data for the base year has also been adjusted for the estimates of un- served energy (load shedding) in order to have realistic figures. Forecast results show that energy sale will be 11084 GWh and 17876 GWh, peak demand will be 3574 MW and 4677 MW and energy purchased will be 16659 GWh and 26036 GWh by the years 2017-18 and 2023-24 respectively. The annual average compound growth rate of energy sale, peak demand and energy purchased will be 9.12%, 4.69% and 8.63% respectively by the year 2023-24 with respect to 2013-14. To further refine the forecast and making it helpful for planners following additions have been made in this issue; Civil Administrative Division-wise energy and demand forecast Civil Administrative District-wise energy and demand forecast Month-wise demand projection Overloaded 132 kV substations List of existing substations with their MVA capacities A realistic forecast, saves over investment as well as under investment, meaning thereby timely recovery of revenue and no constraints in the supply of power (load shedding) respectively. This kind of forecast can only be prepared by applying proper methodology with authentic data. The results of previous PMS forecasts were very close to the actual which proves the authenticity of methodology and data. This report highlights the salient features of load forecast of the company. Planning Power, NTDCL firmly believes that the reader’s comments/suggestions on this report will help in improving energy and demand forecast in future. i Table of Contents Table of Contents 1 Introduction ...............................................................................................................................1 2 Historical Supply And Demand Analysis .......................................................................................3 2.1 Category-wise Sale ........................................................................................................................ 3 2.2 Transmission and Distribution Losses ........................................................................................... 4 2.3 Recorded and Computed Peak Demand ....................................................................................... 5 2.4 Number of Consumers .................................................................................................................. 5 3 Power Market Survey Methodology ............................................................................................6 3.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 6 3.2 Survey Base Data ........................................................................................................................... 6 3.3 Input Parameters .......................................................................................................................... 7 3.4 Growth Rates ................................................................................................................................ 8 3.5 Losses ............................................................................................................................................ 8 3.6 Load Factors .................................................................................................................................. 8 3.7 Coincidence Factors ...................................................................................................................... 9 3.8 Forecast Calculations .................................................................................................................. 10 3.9 Energy Calculations ..................................................................................................................... 10 3.10 Peak Demand Calculations .......................................................................................................... 10 3.11 Accumulations ............................................................................................................................. 10 4 PMS Forecast Results ................................................................................................................ 11 4.1 Recorded Forecast (Excluding Load Shedding) ........................................................................... 11 4.2 Computed Forecast (Including Load Shedding) .......................................................................... 11 4.3 Category-wise Forecasted Energy Sale (GWh) ............................................................................ 12 4.4 Category-wise Forecasted Energy Sale (GWh) ........................................................................... 13 4.5 Peak Demand of Substations ...................................................................................................... 13 4.6 Per capita consumption .............................................................................................................. 13 4.7 Category-wise Substation-wise Energy and Demand Projections .............................................. 14 4.8 Civil Administrative Area Forecast .............................................................................................. 14 4.9 Monthly Demand (MW) Projections ........................................................................................... 14 4.10 List of 132 kV Overloaded Sub-Stations ...................................................................................... 14 4.11 List of Existing Sub-Stations with their Codes and MVA Capacities ............................................ 14 Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................................ 69 ii List of Figures List of Figures Figure 1- 1: Computed Demand Forecast ..................................................................................................... 1 Figure 1- 2: Historical Category-wise Sale ................................................................................................... 3 Figure 1- 3: Historical Transmission and Distribution Losses ...................................................................... 4 Figure 1- 4: Historical Recorded and Computed Peak Demand ................................................................... 5 Figure 1- 5: Number of Consumers .............................................................................................................. 5 Figure 1- 6: Computed Peak Demand ......................................................................................................... 11 Figure 1- 7: Energy Purchased VS Energy Sale ......................................................................................... 11 Figure 1- 8: Forecasted Category-wise Sale ............................................................................................... 12 Figure 1- 9: Per Capita Consumption ......................................................................................................... 13 Figure 1- 10: Distribution Network Map .................................................................................................... 72 iii List of Tables List of Tables Table 1- 1: PMS Recorded Forecast (Excluding Load Shedding) .............................................................. 15 Table 1- 2: PMS Base Forecast .................................................................................................................. 16 Table 1- 3: Category-wise Sale – GWh (Excluding Load Shedding) ........................................................ 17 Table 1- 4: Category-wise Sale – GWh (Base Forecast) ........................................................................... 18 Table 1- 5: Category-wise Demand – MW (Excluding Load Shedding) ..................................................

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