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Rural-Urban Migration in China

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Rural-Urban Migration in China Internal Labor Migration in China: Trends, Geographical Distribution and Policies Kam Wing Chan Department of Geography University of Washington Seattle [email protected] January 2008 Wuhan: Share of Migrant Workers (Non-Hukou) (2000 Census Data) Industry % of employment in that industry Manufacturing 43 Construction 56 Social Services 50 Real Estate and Housing 40 Wuhan City (7 city districts) 46 Urban recreation consumption rose at 14% p.a in 1995-2005 Topics • Hukou System and Migration Statistics • Migration Trends • Geography •Policies (The Household Registration System, 户口制度) • Formally set up in 1958 • Divided population/society into two major types of households: rural and urban • Differential treatments of rural and urban residents • Controlled by the police and other govt departments • Basically an “internal passport system” • Currently, the system serves as a benefit eligibility system; a tool of institutional exclusion than controlling geographical mobility • The population of a city is divided into “local” and “outside” population. Ad MIGRANT CHILDREN FALL THROUGH THE CRACKS An unlicensed school in Beijing Two types of internal migrants • Hukou Migrants: migrants with local residency rights • Non-hukou Migrant: migrants without local residency rights – also called: non-hukou population, or more generally, “floating population” Wuhan: Share of Non-Hukou Migrant Workers (2000 Census Data) Industry % of Employment Manufacturing 43 Construction 56 Social Services 50 Real Estate and Housing 40 Wuhan City (7 city districts) 46 Trends Migration Trends: Floating Population, 1982-2003 (Estimates in Millions) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1985 1988 1992 1994 1997 1999 2003 Level of Urbanization, 1990-2005 45 40 35 30 % of Total Population 25 20 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Figure 3 Urban Growth and Migration Rates 7 6 Urban Growth 5 Rate 4 Urban Natural 3 Increase Rates Net Urban In- 2 migration Rate 1 Percent of Urban Population Urban of Percent 0 True rural- 1990 1995 2000 urban migration Source: Chan and Hu (2003) Geography The 30 Largest Inter-provincial Migration Flows, 1995-2000 Policies 0.70 Interprovincial Inequality, 0.65 1990–2006 0.60 Group 1 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 Group 2 0.35 0.30 CVdf 0.25 CVdj 0.20 2 5 00a 04 1990 1995 00b 2001 200 2003 20 200 2006 20 20 Notes: CV’s for 1990, 1995 and 2000a are based on old GDP data in 1990 constant prices; those for 2000b-2006 are based on new GDP data in 2000 constant prices. The two series are not directly comparable. Urban Growth Scenarios (Population in Millions) Known Forecast 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 National Population assuming 0.7% growth per year 1265.8 1306.3 1352.7 1400.7 1450.4 Population Increase per year 8.1 9.3 9.6 9.9 URBAN SCENARIO 1 assuming 3.5% growth per year Urban Population 458.6 561.6 667.0 792.2 940.9 Urban % 36.2 43.0 49.3 56.6 64.9 Urban Population Increase per year 20.6 21.1 25.0 29.7 Urban Natural Increase (0.55%) per year 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.4 Net Rural-urban Migration per year 18.1 18.0 21.3 25.3 URBAN SCENARIO 2 assuming 4% growth p.a. in 2005-2010, and 3.5% p.a. after Urban Population 458.6 561.6 683.3 811.5 963.8 Urban % 36.2 43.0 50.5 57.9 66.5 Urban Population Increase per year 20.6 24.3 25.6 30.5 Urban Natural Increase (0.55%) per year 2.5 3.1 3.8 4.5 Net Rural-urban Migration per year 18.1 21.2 21.8 25.9 RURAL SCENARIO 1 Scenario 1 Rural Population 807.3 744.7 685.7 608.5 509.5 Rural % 63.8 57.0 50.7 43.4 35.1 Rural Population Increase per year -12.5 -11.8 -15.4 -19.8 RURAL SCENARIO 2 Rural Population 807.3 744.7 669.4 589.2 486.6 Rural % 63.8 57.0 49.5 42.1 33.5 Rural Population Increase per year -12.5 -15.1 -16.0 -20.5 Urban Growth Scenarios, 2005-2020 Main points: 1600 1400 • Urban Population – 2005: 43% (560M); 1200 – 2010: 50% (675M) – 2020: 65% (950M) 1000 • Increase of about 400M in the next 15 years 800 Population in Millions • 80% from net rural-urban 600 migration and 400 reclassification, about 20M Nationa; urban2 per year Æ 200-250 peasant urban1 migrants by 2020 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Implications of Urban Growth • Employment? – Jobs for the 150 M unemployed rural labor – Many urban jobs currently off-limit to migrants Implications of Urban Growth • Infrastructure and housing – affordable housing? – education for kids? – who pays? financing? Implications of Urban Growth • Urban poverty, public safety and social stability – wage arrears, unfair compensation for land expropriated, etc – 200 M permanent urban underclass? – protests and riots Thank you!.
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