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On the Challenges for Strategic Intelligence: Cognitive Biases and Information Overload

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On the Challenges for Strategic Intelligence: Cognitive Biases and Information Overload Питання психології DOI: 10. 33099/2617-6858 – 20 – 58 – 5 – 123-130 Loboda Y. О. candidate of philosophic sciences, associate professor, leading scientific fellow of National Defence University of Ukraine named after Ivan Cherniakhovskyі https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9121-6696 ON THE CHALLENGES FOR STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE: COGNITIVE BIASES AND INFORMATION OVERLOAD In the article on the basis of the contemporary Western literature were analyzed two main challenges for the analytical departments of strategic intelligence: cognitive biases and information overload. In the paragraph “Defining the core issue” it was stated that the problems of cognitive biases and informational overload are the permanent challenges, which have to be analyzed continuously. In the paragraph “Analysis of the latest publications” were pointed out the classic and contemporary works on psychology of intelligence and information overload. The main aim of the article is searching the ways of mitigating of negative consequences of the cognitive biases and information overload in strategic intelligence. In the paragraph “Exposition of the main material” were considered the typology of cognitive biases and essence of the information overload. In “Conclusions” were outlined possible ways of response to challenges of cognitive biases and information overload. Key words: intelligence; cognitive bias; information overload. Defining the core issue. The problems of Nevertheless, the notion of cognitive bias in cognitive biases in intelligence analysis and intelligence analysis remains important for the overcomplicating intelligence institutions in studies in theory and history of intelligence. conditions of information overload are the classic Traditionally the cognitive biases are linked issues for intelligence studies. They need to be with human psychology. The weak sides of this reconsidered permanently according to historical approach are the following: changes. - Psychological biases are relevant only on Analysis of the latest publications. The the tactical and operational levels, where personal following scholars focused their attention on the opinion (or group thinking) really matter. On the cognitive biases in intelligence analysis: S. strategic level of intelligence analysis, where the Marrin [9, 10], L.Johnson [15], R.J.Heuer [5], role of a personality reduced, the task of search Moore [12]. The information overflow was for the psychological roots of cognitive biases analyzed (but not limited) by: C.E. Brueggemann appears to be more complicated. [1], A. Oettinger [13], T.S. Thomas [16], K.J. - Psychology deals with operations of Wheaton [17]. analysis of motivation and description of The aim of the article: to analyze essence cognitive biases, their logical structures and of the contemporary challenges to intelligence relation to norms which could help to avoid them analysis in the cases of cognitive biases and remain obscured. organizational consequences of information Nonetheless, the main advantage of the overload with ways of their mitigation. psychological approach, mainly represented by Exposition of the main material. The R.Heuer, is the following: the typology of the question of influence of cognitive biases on the cognitive biases is profoundly described, the intelligence blunders is not free from biases itself: variety of its phenomena are classified: 'Biases in it is very easy to accuse members of intelligence Evaluation of Evidence (The Vividness Criterion, community in cognitive biases when they fail Absence of Evidence, Oversensitivity to (even if some other cause(s) actually worked Consistency, Coping with Evidence of Uncertain out); the theoretical basis of the analysis of the Accuracy, Persistence of Impressions Based on cognitive biases is not unified: it contains diverse Discredited Evidence); Biases in Perception of approaches taken from psychology and critical Cause and Effect (Bias in Favor of Causal thinking theory, backed by formal logic. Explanations, Bias Favoring Perception of Вісник Національного університету оборони України 5 (58) /2020 123 Питання психології Centralized Direction, Similarity of Cause and 105]. Thus, the task of mitigation of the cognitive Effect, Internal vs. External Causes of Behavior, biases belongs not to theoretical debates only; it Overestimating Our Own Importance, Illusory relates to the organizational structures of Correlation); Biases in Estimating Probabilities intelligence community and the professionalism (Availability Rule, Anchoring, Expression of of its management. Uncertainty, Assessing Probability of a Scenario, Structured analytical techniques offered as Base-Rate Fallacy); Hindsight Biases in one of the remedies of the cognitive biases faced Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting (Analysts their critics from the intelligence community: normally overestimate the accuracy of their past Stephen Marrin [10] argues that structured judgments. Intelligence consumers normally methods (at least in the time of his service in CIA underestimate how much they learned from in 1996-2000) are used very rarely; intelligence intelligence reports. Overseers of intelligence officers preferred intuition in their work. He production who conduct post-mortem analyses of states that structured techniques are perfect for an intelligence failure normally judge that events making the process of analysis transparent and were more readily foreseeable than was in fact accountable (and therefore it would make the case)' [5, pp. 111 – 173]. Another systematics analysis much more correct), but it takes more based primarily on the psychological approach is time to conform all the formalities related to this the following: ‘Evoked-Set Reasoning, method. Overloaded officers usually work within Prematurely Formed Views, Presumption that the tight temporal frameworks, which makes Support for One Hypothesis Disconfirms Others, using of structured techniques less preferable to Inappropriate Analogies, Superficial Lessons them. Mitigating this problem may contain the From History, Presumption of Unitary Action by following: to reduce exploitation of more Organizations, Organizational Parochialism, problematic methods (like intuition) it would be Excessive Secrecy (Compartmentation), possible to offer more convenient formal Ethnocentrism, Lack of Empathy, Mirror- (structured) methods or/and special software to Imaging, Ignorance, Rational-Actor Hypothesis, make their workflow more transparent and Denial of Rationality, Proportionality Bias, accountable, and as a result – more accessible for Willful Disregard of New Evidence, Image and counter-bias inspections. Self-Image, Defensive Avoidance, More fundamental approach is proposed by Overconfidence in Subjective Estimates, Wishful scholars who are based on the theory of critical Thinking (Pollyanna Complex), Best-Case thinking [12]. Being an applied form of Analysis, Conservatism in Probability traditional formal logic, critical thinking is Estimation, Worst-Case Analysis (Cassandra focused not on the representations of cognitive Complex)’ [8, pp. 36-38; 4, pp. 106-107]. Dearth biases, but on their structures and relation to the makes a very important notice: he writes about norms of correct thinking. Pitfalls related to the institutional causes of boosting the cognitive main elements of abstract thinking (notion biases: “Biases can be enforced, or at least re- (classification, comparison, definition, division), enforced - formally or informally - by propositions (contradiction, controversy, organizations through organizational negation), inference (induction, deduction, parochialism and "group-think" and can have as abduction, traduction) [12, p. 36], hypothesis and their basis ethnocentrism. This phenomenon can theories building, their falsification and operate at the level of given intelligence verification, main laws of logic (identity, organizations, intelligence disciplines, or sectors excluded middle, non-controversy, sufficient of government. Some of these problems are reason)) can be attributed not only to exact rooted in the methodologies we select to analyze persons from IC, as it was in the case of the the world; but they all will certainly influence the psychological approach, but to the pattern of the way we use any given methodology. Consider, workflow of entire analytical groups and for instance, the problems associated with institutions. Logical tradition provides rigorous inappropriate analogies and superficial lessons rules of the correct thinking which could help to from history. The latter invariably produces bad avoid cognitive biases more effectively, than history and hence flawed understanding” [4, p. psychological approach proposes to do. 124 Вісник Національного університету оборони України 5 (58) /2020 Питання психології The method of mitigation of the cognitive logic and its applied form – critical thinking – can biases depends on the approach to them. Shallow, increase chances of avoiding the negative too generalized and wide prescriptions, given by outcomes of cognitive biases. representatives of the psychological approach [5, Furthermore, any intelligence service could pp. 173 – 184] are not comparable with the be easily blamed for incompleteness, fuzziness, approach of representatives of critical thinking obsoleteness of the information it provides, as scholars [12, pp. 95-96] – the last look way more well in errors in its analysis. The motto “the fundamental and constructive, because refers not command’s hunger for information is perpetual, to exact
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