Glossary of Behavioural Biases
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Addressing Cognitive Biases in Augmented Business Decision Systems Human Performance Metrics for Generic AI-Assisted Decision Making
Addressing Cognitive Biases in Augmented Business Decision Systems Human performance metrics for generic AI-assisted decision making. THOMAS BAUDEL* IBM France Lab, Orsay, France MANON VERBOCKHAVEN IBM France Lab & ENSAE VICTOIRE COUSERGUE IBM France Lab, Université Paris-Dauphine & Mines ParisTech GUILLAUME ROY IBM France Lab & ENSAI RIDA LAARACH IBM France Lab, Telecom ParisTech & HEC How do algorithmic decision aids introduced in business decision processes affect task performance? In a first experiment, we study effective collaboration. Faced with a decision, subjects alone have a success rate of 72%; Aided by a recommender that has a 75% success rate, their success rate reaches 76%. The human-system collaboration had thus a greater success rate than each taken alone. However, we noted a complacency/authority bias that degraded the quality of decisions by 5% when the recommender was wrong. This suggests that any lingering algorithmic bias may be amplified by decision aids. In a second experiment, we evaluated the effectiveness of 5 presentation variants in reducing complacency bias. We found that optional presentation increases subjects’ resistance to wrong recommendations. We conclude by arguing that our metrics, in real usage scenarios, where decision aids are embedded as system-wide features in Business Process Management software, can lead to enhanced benefits. CCS CONCEPTS • Cross-computing tools and techniques: Empirical studies, Information Systems: Enterprise information systems, Decision support systems, Business Process Management, Human-centered computing, Human computer interaction (HCI), Visualization, Machine Learning, Automation Additional Keywords and Phrases: Business decision systems, Decision theory, Cognitive biases * [email protected]. 1 INTRODUCTION For the past 20 years, Business Process Management (BPM) [29] and related technologies such as Business Rules [10, 52] and Robotic Process Automation [36] have streamlined processes and operational decision- making in large enterprises, transforming work organization. -
Conjunction Fallacy' Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making J. Behav. Dec. Making, 12: 275±305 (1999) The `Conjunction Fallacy' Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors RALPH HERTWIG* and GERD GIGERENZER Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany ABSTRACT Findings in recent research on the `conjunction fallacy' have been taken as evid- ence that our minds are not designed to work by the rules of probability. This conclusion springs from the idea that norms should be content-blind Ð in the present case, the assumption that sound reasoning requires following the con- junction rule of probability theory. But content-blind norms overlook some of the intelligent ways in which humans deal with uncertainty, for instance, when drawing semantic and pragmatic inferences. In a series of studies, we ®rst show that people infer nonmathematical meanings of the polysemous term `probability' in the classic Linda conjunction problem. We then demonstrate that one can design contexts in which people infer mathematical meanings of the term and are therefore more likely to conform to the conjunction rule. Finally, we report evidence that the term `frequency' narrows the spectrum of possible interpreta- tions of `probability' down to its mathematical meanings, and that this fact Ð rather than the presence or absence of `extensional cues' Ð accounts for the low proportion of violations of the conjunction rule when people are asked for frequency judgments. We conclude that a failure to recognize the human capacity for semantic and pragmatic inference can lead rational responses to be misclassi®ed as fallacies. Copyright # 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS conjunction fallacy; probabalistic thinking; frequentistic thinking; probability People's apparent failures to reason probabilistically in experimental contexts have raised serious concerns about our ability to reason rationally in real-world environments. -
Ambiguity Aversion in Qualitative Contexts: a Vignette Study
Ambiguity aversion in qualitative contexts: A vignette study Joshua P. White Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences University of Melbourne Andrew Perfors Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences University of Melbourne Abstract Most studies of ambiguity aversion rely on experimental paradigms involv- ing contrived monetary bets. Thus, the extent to which ambiguity aversion is evident outside of such contexts is largely unknown, particularly in those contexts which cannot easily be reduced to numerical terms. The present work seeks to understand whether ambiguity aversion occurs in a variety of different qualitative domains, such as work, family, love, friendship, exercise, study and health. We presented participants with 24 vignettes and measured the degree to which they preferred risk to ambiguity. In a separate study we asked participants for their prior probability estimates about the likely outcomes in the ambiguous events. Ambiguity aversion was observed in the vast majority of vignettes, but at different magnitudes. It was predicted by gain/loss direction but not by the prior probability estimates (with the inter- esting exception of the classic Ellsberg ‘urn’ scenario). Our results suggest that ambiguity aversion occurs in a wide variety of qualitative contexts, but to different degrees, and may not be generally driven by unfavourable prior probability estimates of ambiguous events. Corresponding Author: Joshua P. White ([email protected]) AMBIGUITY AVERSION IN QUALITATIVE CONTEXTS: A VIGNETTE STUDY 2 Introduction The world is replete with the unknown, yet people generally prefer some types of ‘unknown’ to others. Here, an important distinction exists between risk and uncertainty. As defined by Knight (1921), risk is a measurable lack of certainty that can be represented by numerical probabilities (e.g., “there is a 50% chance that it will rain tomorrow”), while ambiguity is an unmeasurable lack of certainty (e.g., “there is an unknown probability that it will rain tomorrow”). -
A Task-Based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization
A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Pierre Dragicevic Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display 2 Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display The Human 3 Three kinds of limitations: humans • Human vision ️ has limitations • Human reasoning 易 has limitations The Human 4 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation 5 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation Color perception 6 易 Cognitive bias Behaviors when humans consistently behave irrationally Pohl’s criteria distilled: • Are predictable and consistent • People are unaware they’re doing them • Are not misunderstandings 7 Ambiguity effect, Anchoring or focalism, Anthropocentric thinking, Anthropomorphism or personification, Attentional bias, Attribute substitution, Automation bias, Availability heuristic, Availability cascade, Backfire effect, Bandwagon effect, Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect, Belief bias, Ben Franklin effect, Berkson's paradox, Bias blind spot, Choice-supportive bias, Clustering illusion, Compassion fade, Confirmation bias, Congruence bias, Conjunction fallacy, Conservatism (belief revision), Continued influence effect, Contrast effect, Courtesy bias, Curse of knowledge, Declinism, Decoy effect, Default effect, Denomination effect, Disposition effect, Distinction bias, Dread aversion, Dunning–Kruger effect, Duration neglect, Empathy gap, End-of-history illusion, Endowment effect, Exaggerated expectation, Experimenter's or expectation bias, -
Enhancing the Production Effect in Memory: Singing, Underlying Mechanisms, and Applications
ENHANCING THE PRODUCTION EFFECT IN MEMORY: SINGING, UNDERLYING MECHANISMS, AND APPLICATIONS by Chelsea Karmel Quinlan Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Dalhousie University Halifax, Nova Scotia December 2017 © Copyright by Chelsea Karmel Quinlan, 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................... v LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................... vi ABSTRACT ................................................................................ vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS USED .................................................. viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................ ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ......................................................... 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 2 1.2 HISTORY OF THE PRODUCTION EFFECT ........................................................... 4 1.3 A REVIEW OF THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES .................................................. 11 1.4 MUSIC AND MEMORY ....................................................................................... 17 1.5 CHAPTER SUMMARY, RATIONALE, AND CURRENT EXPERIMENTS ................ 19 CHAPTER 2: EXTENDING THE BOUNDARIES OF THE PRODUCTION EFFECT .................................................................................... 24 2.1 ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................ -
1 Session 17
42nd Annual National Conference of Regulatory Attorneys Nashville, Tennessee May 5-8, 2019 Outline & Materials Session 17 - Bridge Over Troubled Water: The Arch of Ethics It is easy to fall into ethically-troubled waters. Here, a series of lively skits will show us some of the daily challenges facing attorneys who practice before the fictitious Nirvana Public Utility Commission. The situations portrayed leave us to question: Will these lawyers slip into the muddy waters or steady themselves by clinging to the Model Rules of Professional Conduct? Legal Instruction: Richard Collier, Esq. Skit Production: Eve Moran, Esq. _________________________________________________________________________ Skit I - Things Are Jumping At The Bluebird Bar & Grill Resources: Ex Parte Statutes - Tennessee (Tenn. Code Ann. § 4-5-304) Model Rule 3.5 A lawyer shall not: (a) seek to influence a judge, juror, prospective juror or other official by means prohibited by law; (b) communicate ex parte with such a person during the proceeding unless authorized to do so by law or court order; (c) communicate with a juror or prospective juror after discharge of the jury if: (1) the communication is prohibited by law or court order; (2) the juror has made known to the lawyer a desire not to communicate; or (3) the communication involves misrepresentation, coercion, duress or harassment; or (d) engage in conduct intended to disrupt a tribunal. Model Rule 8.4 It is professional misconduct for a lawyer to: (a) violate or attempt to violate the Rules of Professional Conduct, -
The Art of Thinking Clearly
For Sabine The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli www.sceptrebooks.co.uk First published in Great Britain in 2013 by Sceptre An imprint of Hodder & Stoughton An Hachette UK company 1 Copyright © Rolf Dobelli 2013 The right of Rolf Dobelli to be identified as the Author of the Work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, nor be otherwise circulated in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. A CIP catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. eBook ISBN 978 1 444 75955 6 Hardback ISBN 978 1 444 75954 9 Hodder & Stoughton Ltd 338 Euston Road London NW1 3BH www.sceptrebooks.co.uk CONTENTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO -
Attribution of Intentions and Context Processing in Psychometric Schizotypy
Cognitive Neuropsychiatry ISSN: 1354-6805 (Print) 1464-0619 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/pcnp20 Attribution of intentions and context processing in psychometric schizotypy Romina Rinaldi, Laurent Lefebvre, Wivine Blekic, Frank Laroi & Julien Laloyaux To cite this article: Romina Rinaldi, Laurent Lefebvre, Wivine Blekic, Frank Laroi & Julien Laloyaux (2018) Attribution of intentions and context processing in psychometric schizotypy, Cognitive Neuropsychiatry, 23:6, 364-376, DOI: 10.1080/13546805.2018.1528972 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/13546805.2018.1528972 Published online: 06 Oct 2018. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 33 View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=pcnp20 COGNITIVE NEUROPSYCHIATRY 2018, VOL. 23, NO. 6, 364–376 https://doi.org/10.1080/13546805.2018.1528972 Attribution of intentions and context processing in psychometric schizotypy Romina Rinaldia,b, Laurent Lefebvreb, Wivine Blekicb, Frank Laroic,d,e and Julien Laloyauxc,d,e aGrand Hôpital de Charleroi, Hôpital Notre-Dame, Charleroi, Belgium; bCognitive psychology and Neuropsychology Department, University of Mons, Mons, Belgium; cDepartment of Biological and Medical Psychology, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; dNORMENT – Norwegian Center of Excellence for Mental Disorders Research, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; ePsychology and Neuroscience of Cognition Research Unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY Introduction: Impairment in Theory of mind (TOM) has frequently Received 26 January 2018 been associated with schizophrenia and with schizotypy. Studies Accepted 15 September 2018 have found that a tendency to over-attribute intentions and KEYWORDS special meaning to events and to people is related to positive Psychotic symptoms; theory psychotic symptoms. -
MITIGATING COGNITIVE BIASES in RISK IDENTIFICATION: Practitioner Checklist for the AEROSPACE SECTOR
MITIGATING COGNITIVE BIASES IN RISK IDENTIFICATION: Practitioner Checklist for the AEROSPACE SECTOR Debra L. Emmons, Thomas A. Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani, and Curtis E. Larsen This research contributes an operational checklist for mitigating cogni- tive biases in the aerospace sector risk management process. The Risk Identification and Evaluation Bias Reduction Checklist includes steps for grounding the risk identification and evaluation activities in past project experiences through historical data, and emphasizes the importance of incorporating multiple methods and perspectives to guard against optimism and a singular project instantiation-focused view. The authors developed a survey to elicit subject matter expert judgment on the value of the check- list to support its use in government and industry as a risk management tool. The survey also provided insights on bias mitigation strategies and lessons learned. This checklist addresses the deficiency in the literature in providing operational steps for the practitioner to recognize and implement strategies for bias reduction in risk management in the aerospace sector. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22594/dau.16-770.25.01 Keywords: Risk Management, Optimism Bias, Planning Fallacy, Cognitive Bias Reduction Mitigating Cognitive Biases in Risk Identification http://www.dau.mil January 2018 This article and its accompanying research contribute an operational FIGURE 1. RESEARCH APPROACH Risk Identification and Evaluation Bias Reduction Checklist for cognitive bias mitigation in risk management for the aerospace sector. The checklist Cognitive Biases & Bias described herein offers a practical and implementable project management Enabling framework to help reduce biases in the aerospace sector and redress the Conditions cognitive limitations in the risk identification and analysis process. -
Bias and Fairness in NLP
Bias and Fairness in NLP Margaret Mitchell Kai-Wei Chang Vicente Ordóñez Román Google Brain UCLA University of Virginia Vinodkumar Prabhakaran Google Brain Tutorial Outline ● Part 1: Cognitive Biases / Data Biases / Bias laundering ● Part 2: Bias in NLP and Mitigation Approaches ● Part 3: Building Fair and Robust Representations for Vision and Language ● Part 4: Conclusion and Discussion “Bias Laundering” Cognitive Biases, Data Biases, and ML Vinodkumar Prabhakaran Margaret Mitchell Google Brain Google Brain Andrew Emily Simone Parker Lucy Ben Elena Deb Timnit Gebru Zaldivar Denton Wu Barnes Vasserman Hutchinson Spitzer Raji Adrian Brian Dirk Josh Alex Blake Hee Jung Hartwig Blaise Benton Zhang Hovy Lovejoy Beutel Lemoine Ryu Adam Agüera y Arcas What’s in this tutorial ● Motivation for Fairness research in NLP ● How and why NLP models may be unfair ● Various types of NLP fairness issues and mitigation approaches ● What can/should we do? What’s NOT in this tutorial ● Definitive answers to fairness/ethical questions ● Prescriptive solutions to fix ML/NLP (un)fairness What do you see? What do you see? ● Bananas What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas at a store What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas at a store ● Bananas on shelves What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas at a store ● Bananas on shelves ● Bunches of bananas What do you see? ● Bananas ● Stickers ● Dole Bananas ● Bananas -
Cognitive Biases in Economic Decisions – Three Essays on the Impact of Debiasing
TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITÄT MÜNCHEN Lehrstuhl für Betriebswirtschaftslehre – Strategie und Organisation Univ.-Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe Cognitive biases in economic decisions – three essays on the impact of debiasing Christoph Martin Gerald Döbrich Abdruck der von der Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der Technischen Universität München zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Dr. rer. pol.) genehmigten Dissertation. Vorsitzender: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Gunther Friedl Prüfer der Dissertation: 1. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe 2. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Dr. Holger Patzelt Die Dissertation wurde am 28.11.2012 bei der Technischen Universität München eingereicht und durch die Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften am 15.12.2012 angenommen. Acknowledgments II Acknowledgments Numerous people have contributed to the development and successful completion of this dissertation. First of all, I would like to thank my supervisor Prof. Dr. Isabell M. Welpe for her continuous support, all the constructive discussions, and her enthusiasm concerning my dissertation project. Her challenging questions and new ideas always helped me to improve my work. My sincere thanks also go to Prof. Dr. Matthias Spörrle for his continuous support of my work and his valuable feedback for the articles building this dissertation. Moreover, I am grateful to Prof. Dr. Dr. Holger Patzelt for acting as the second advisor for this thesis and Professor Dr. Gunther Friedl for leading the examination board. This dissertation would not have been possible without the financial support of the Elite Network of Bavaria. I am very thankful for the financial support over two years which allowed me to pursue my studies in a focused and efficient manner. Many colleagues at the Chair for Strategy and Organization of Technische Universität München have supported me during the completion of this thesis. -
“Dysrationalia” Among University Students: the Role of Cognitive
“Dysrationalia” among university students: The role of cognitive abilities, different aspects of rational thought and self-control in explaining epistemically suspect beliefs Erceg, Nikola; Galić, Zvonimir; Bubić, Andreja Source / Izvornik: Europe’s Journal of Psychology, 2019, 15, 159 - 175 Journal article, Published version Rad u časopisu, Objavljena verzija rada (izdavačev PDF) https://doi.org/10.5964/ejop.v15i1.1696 Permanent link / Trajna poveznica: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:131:942674 Rights / Prava: Attribution 4.0 International Download date / Datum preuzimanja: 2021-09-29 Repository / Repozitorij: ODRAZ - open repository of the University of Zagreb Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences Europe's Journal of Psychology ejop.psychopen.eu | 1841-0413 Research Reports “Dysrationalia” Among University Students: The Role of Cognitive Abilities, Different Aspects of Rational Thought and Self-Control in Explaining Epistemically Suspect Beliefs Nikola Erceg* a, Zvonimir Galić a, Andreja Bubić b [a] Department of Psychology, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia. [b] Department of Psychology, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Split, Split, Croatia. Abstract The aim of the study was to investigate the role that cognitive abilities, rational thinking abilities, cognitive styles and self-control play in explaining the endorsement of epistemically suspect beliefs among university students. A total of 159 students participated in the study. We found that different aspects of rational thought (i.e. rational thinking abilities and cognitive styles) and self-control, but not intelligence, significantly predicted the endorsement of epistemically suspect beliefs. Based on these findings, it may be suggested that intelligence and rational thinking, although related, represent two fundamentally different constructs.