ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION IN THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA The opinions expressed in the report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) or the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM or PIK concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. _____________________________ Publisher: International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons P.O. Box 17 1211 Geneva 19 Switzerland Tel.: +41 22 717 9111 Fax: +41 22 798 6150 Email: [email protected] Website: www.iom.int Cover photo: Unidentified African women walking with water containers on their heads in a village near the city of Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania. © Shutterstock 2017/Rashad MAMMADOV Required citation: Blocher, J.M., K. Vinke, H.J. Schellnhuber, S. Gleixner, C. Gornott, N.B. George, E.O. Kileli Leyani, R. Laudien, A. Lobanova, J. Ludescher, and H. Weisz (2021). Assessing the Evidence: Climate Change and Migration in the United Republic of Tanzania. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam and International Organization for Migration (IOM), Geneva. _____________________________ ISBN 978-92-9268-015-2 (PDF) © IOM 2021 Some rights reserved. This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivs 3.0 IGO License (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO).* For further specifications please see the Copyright and Terms of Use. This publication should not be used, published or redistributed for purposes primarily intended for or directed towards commercial advantage or monetary compensation, with the exception of educational purposes e.g. to be included in textbooks. Permissions: Requests for commercial use or further rights and licensing should be submitted to [email protected]. * https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/legalcode PUB2021/009/EL ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION IN THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA FOREWORD BY THE POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH From the top of the Kilimanjaro, the lush Tanzanian landscapes seem everlasting in their beauty and indestructible in their resilience. But the snapshot of natural grace is deceiving. Powerful changes are underway and threaten to disrupt climate stability and biodiversity. Global warming has already undermined traditional farming techniques and has led to unpredictable rainfalls, droughts, and sea-level rise. These changes have contributed to a peculiar mosaic of human migration in the United Republic of Tanzania. This pattern includes (a) the vulnerable prisoners of climate change (forcibly immobile), (b) internal migrants (encompassing rural– rural dynamics as well as rural–urban movers) and (c) the transnational elite (the urban, high-skilled minority). Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will determine whether damaging impacts will remain manageable, or if the region will slip into a permanent state of emergency, with great human suffering, adverse migration outcomes and potentially violent conflicts. The effects of the still unfolding COVID-19 pandemic reveal, across the globe, many weaknesses regarding development concepts, social protection schemes and universal access to basic services. And it becomes increasingly clear that certain strategies needed to build local and regional resilience in East Africa are as relevant for the absorption of shocks like the corona crisis or the recent locust infestations as they are for meeting the climate challenge. Prior to the pandemic, internal migration was typically a secondary issue for governments in East Africa. However, as containment measures spread across the region, reverse migration of people en masse from urban to rural areas largely caught governments off guard. The flow of much-needed internal remittances to rural households – typically transferred through mobile money such as M-Pesa – dwindled to a trickle in some areas and swelled to a flood in others (The Economist, 2020). Migrants in urban areas faced the difficult decision to either remain in destination areas, risking unemployment and homelessness in many cases, or return to challenging alternatives in their home areas. ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE: iii CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION IN THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA Amid this complex topography of fragility and crises, the publication of Assessing the Evidence: Migration, Environment and Climate Change in the United Republic of Tanzania is timely. Focusing mainly on the internal, rural-to-rural migration flows that are still prevalent in the country, this report considers a wide range of factors that influence communities’ livelihoods and subsequently alter their mobility patterns. The bulk of the content is dedicated to articulating the rich mosaic of migration forms and motivations, as well as their likely trajectories as climate change evolves over the course of this century. This report therefore represents a comprehensive and up-to-date account of current knowledge of critical climate change impacts in the United Republic of Tanzania, as well as their links to human mobility trends. It aims to initiate and assist evidence-based policy dialogues on understanding, addressing and managing the current migration mosaic and its likely evolution in a rapidly changing environment. Among the important recommendations offered is a multi-tier adaptation strategy that addresses different timescales. This strategy ranges from currently needed interventions to provide insurance to populations already affected by climate change to a combination of traditional approaches and novel technology to help farmers cope with slowly evolving changes in the environment, and to a long-term strategy of investments in reforestation that would buffer local climate change and could diversify livelihoods. Migration can support adaptation if adequate preparations are taken, but this requires the mainstreaming of the topic into existing initiatives for development. In a context of uncertainty, it is not enough for governments to learn the critical lessons of today’s crises; they must stimulate broader understandings of complex realities in a rapidly evolving risk landscape and continuously build capacities to apply these learnings to confront the crises of tomorrow. Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber Director Emeritus Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research iv FOREWORD BY THE POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH FOREWORD BY IOM Climate change is a major concern for the international community, and its impact on migration, including displacement, is the object of increasing concern for policymakers and researchers. It is now widely recognized that migration in both its forced and voluntary forms is increasingly impacted by environmental and climatic factors and that migration in turn also impacts the environment as clearly described in many IOM publications, such as The Atlas of Environmental Migration (2017). Yet, knowledge in this field remains limited and fragmented for the context of the United Republic of Tanzania. The country is vulnerable to the increasing adverse effects of climate change, which must be better understood in order to effectively safeguard the lives and livelihoods of its current population and future generations. The relationship between climate change and migration is complex. The consequences of climate change on migration present humankind with an unprecedented challenge. It is evident that environmental degradation due to climate change and the corresponding impacts on socioeconomic systems have the greatest negative impact on the most vulnerable people, particularly those who rely on natural resources, such as rain-fed agriculture. For people whose livelihoods are vulnerable to climatic change, migration has proven to be an effective means of adaptation, bringing positive impacts to individuals and their dependants through sustained and diversified livelihoods. Therefore, the nexus between migration, environment and climate change is an important one to be better researched and understood. In the United Republic of Tanzania, human migration has historically taken place within and between rural areas. However, climate change has altered mobility patterns and fostered migration from rural to urban areas, especially towards big cities, such as Dar es Salaam, which are perceived to offer better livelihood opportunities. For households affected by climate shocks, migration is therefore seen as a risk management or adaptation strategy to climate change. Migration enables families to spatially diversify their income and therefore reduce the risk of the entire household’s income being affected by adverse weather events. ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE: v CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION IN THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA IOM has been working on the links between migration, environment and climate