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IEEE CS 2022 Report IEEE CS 2022 Report Hasan Alkhatib, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg, Hironori Kasahara, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Arif Merchant, Dejan Milojicic, and Karsten Schwan with contributions by: Mohammed AlQuraishi, Angela Burgess, David Forsyth, Hiroyasu Iwata, Rick McGeer, and John Walz Preface In 2013-14, nine technical leaders wrote a report, entitled complete and exhaustive, it is inevitable that some technolo- IEEE CS 2022, surveying 23 innovative technologies that gies have been omitted, such as Bitcoin, future transportation, could change the industry by the year 2022. The report and the general notion of what technology contributes to the covers security cross-cutting issues, open intellectual prop- mankind. Our position, as well as the premise that this docu- erty movement, sustainability, massively online open courses, ment brings, is that technology is the enabler. What humanity quantum computing, device and nanotechnology, device takes out of it really depends on human society. and nanotechnology, 3D integrated circuits, multicore, pho- The IEEE CS 2022 report was presented at the Computer So- tonics, universal memory, networking and interconnectivity, ciety of India Congress, at the Information Processing Society software-defined networks, high-performance computing, of Japan (IPSJ) Congress, at the IEEE CS Board of Governors, cloud computing, the Internet of Things, natural user interfac- at the IEEE CS Industrial Advisory Board, and at Belgrade es, 3D printing, big data and analytics, machine learning and Chapter. We received positive feedback and excellent ideas intelligent systems, computer vision and pattern recognition, for improvement. This is a living document, because the tech- life sciences, computational biology and bioinformatics, and nology continuously changes. We intend to use this document robotics for medical care. for the IEEE CS strategic planning that takes place every These technologies, tied into a scenario that we call seam- three years. We hope that the IEEE CS will be able to come up less intelligence, present a view of the future. For each of the with similar reports regularly in the future. 23 technologies, there is a description of the state of the art, I thank Hasan Alkhatib, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg, challenges, where we think the technology will go, and its Hironori Kasahara, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Arif Merchant, disruption. To confirm the report’s prediction, we surveyed and Karsten Schwan for making this journey to 2022 together. IEEE members about technology drivers and disruptors. We Without their vision, technical knowledge, and creativity, this also tried to predict what kind of society the world would document would not be possible. require with these 23 technologies. Finally, we analyzed the IEEE digital library to better understand the degree to which these technologies are covered today and by which Societies, so that we can make better ties. This document is intended for computer science profession- als, students, and professors, as well as laymen interested Dejan S Milojicic, in technology and technology use. While we tried to be IEEE Computer Society President 2014, February 2014 2 CONTENTS 3 FIGURES Figure 1. Landscape of 23 technologies .........................................7 Figure 18. Coverage of some of the top disruptors Figure 31. The breakdown of networking and in IEEE Libraries by individual societies ...................................118 interconnectivity by sponsoring societies. ............................ 149 Figure 2. IT ecosystem from supply to demand. ........................21 Figure 19. The breakdown of 22 technologies by Figure 32. The breakdown of software-defined Figure 3. Two integration scenarios: a 2.5D component using periodical articles. ............................................................................137 networks by sponsoring societies. ...........................................150 a silicon interposer and a full 3D stack using TSVs. ............34 Figure 20. The breakdown of 22 technologies by Figure 33. The breakdown of HPC by sponsoring Figure 4. An integration scenario combining 2.5D integration sponsoring societies. ..................................................................... 138 societies. ..............................................................................................151 of multiple 3D-stacked components. ........................................35 Figure 21. The breakdown of security cross-cutting Figure 34. The breakdown of cloud computing by Figure 5. Illustration of the severity of the DRAM issues by sponsoring societies. .................................................. 139 sponsoring societies. ..................................................................... 152 capacitor “trench.” ............................................................................38 Figure 22. The breakdown of open intellectual property Figure 35. The breakdown of IoT by sponsoring Figure 6. Simplified phase-change memory (PCM) cell by sponsoring societies. ...............................................................140 societies. ............................................................................................. 153 and spin-transfer torque (STT) cell. ...........................................39 Figure 23. The breakdown of sustainability by Figure 36. The breakdown of natural user interfaces Figure 7. Simplified memristor (ReRAM) cell. ............................40 sponsoring societies. ......................................................................141 by sponsoring societies. ............................................................... 154 Figure 8. Multicore. many-cores landscape. ..............................44 Figure 24. The breakdown of MOOC by sponsoring Figure 37. The breakdown of 3D printing by Figure 10. Rule-of-thumb of using photonics vs. electronics societies. ............................................................................................. 142 sponsoring societies. ..................................................................... 155 based on distance and required bandwidth ...........................48 Figure 25. The breakdown of quantum computing Figure 38. The breakdown of big data analytics Figure 11. Roadmap of industrial photonics by sponsoring societies. ............................................................... 143 by sponsoring societies. ............................................................... 156 technologies........................................................................................50 Figure 26. The breakdown of device and nano-technology Figure 39. The breakdown of machine learning and Figure 12. A representative switch ASIC pipeline. ...................58 by sponsoring societies. ............................................................... 144 intelligent systems by sponsoring societies. .........................157 Figure 13. High-performance computing. ..................................64 Figure 27. The breakdown of 3D integrated circuits Figure 40. The breakdown of computer vision and Figure 14. Comparing classes of HPC and their by sponsoring societies. ............................................................... 145 pattern analysis by sponsoring societies. ..............................158 feasibility to deliver in the cloud. .................................................65 Figure 28. The breakdown of universal memory Figure 41. The breakdown of life sciences by Figure 15. Comparison of major drivers. ..................................... 113 by sponsoring societies. ............................................................... 146 sponsoring societies. ..................................................................... 159 Figure 16. Comparison of major disruptors. ..............................114 Figure 29. The breakdown of muticore by Figure 42. The breakdown of computational biology sponsoring societies. ......................................................................147 by sponsoring societies. ...............................................................160 Figure 17. Coverage of some of the top drivers in IEEE Libraries by individual societies. ..................................... 117 Figure 30. The breakdown of photonics by Figure 43. The breakdown of robotics in medicine sponsoring societies. ..................................................................... 148 by sponsoring societies. ................................................................161 TABLES Table 1. IEEE SWOT ............................................................................ 122 Table 3. Search keywords summary. ........................................... 135 Table 2. Breakdown of who and how Table 4. Google and IEEE Xplore search will be benefiting from IEEE CS ................................................. 123 results combined ............................................................................. 162 4 CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ......................... 5 1.1 Goals ........................................ 6 1. Introduction 1.2 Target Audience ........................ 6 1.3 Process ..................................... 6 1.4 Technologies Landscape ............ 7 1.5 Document Organization ............. 7 Predicting the future is hard and risky. Predicting to better understand where technologies are going. 2. SEAMLESS INTELLIGENCE the future in the computer industry is even harder The book Innovators Dilemma and its sequels best CONTENTSSCENARIO ................................
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