2004 State of the Markets Report
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Cover Image Credited to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/DMSP) NOAA image of cloud-free composite of USA night lights taken from Oct. 1, 1994, to March 31, 1995. NOAA processed the data taken by the Defense Meteorological Defense Program. http://www.noaa.gov 2004 STATE OF THE MARKETS REPORT An Assessment of Energy Markets in the United States in 2004 A Staff Report by the Office of Market Oversight and Investigations Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Published June 2005 • Docket MO05-4-000 State of the Markets Report • June 2005 1 State of the Markets Report PREFACE This is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s third State of the Markets Report. Produced by the Commission’s Office of Market Oversight and Investigations (OMOI), the report covers electric, natural gas, and other related energy market activity during 2004. In contrast to seasonal assessments, which focus on the near future, this report examines performance in the recent past. The State of the Markets Report presents findings regarding market conditions relevant to the Commission and identifies emerging trends that may soon require the Commission’s attention. The Commission created OMOI in April 2002 to focus its efforts on energy market oversight. Any errors in this report are the responsibility of OMOI alone and not of the Commission as a whole. I want to commend the efforts of OMOI staff for this project. Major contributors to this team effort are listed in the Acknowledgments. A fair energy market is everyone’s responsibility. Please do your part. If you encounter inappropriate energy market behavior, contact our Enforcement Hotline toll-free by telephone at 1-888-889-8030 or via e-mail at [email protected]. Thank you, William F. Hederman Director Office of Market Oversight and Investigations We encourage readers to provide feedback on this report by OMOI (State of the Markets Report) filling out the State of the Markets Report Evaluation Card FERC at the end of the report, sending comments in an e-mail to 888 First Street, N.E. [email protected], or by contacting staff referenced in the Washington, D.C. 20426 acknowledgments by mail or phone. 202-502-8100 2 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Office of Market Oversight and Investigations State of the Markets Report TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 5 2004 Issues in Energy Markets Markets Under Stress: New England Reacts to Record Cold 13 Electric Market Investment and Merger Trends 25 Energy Market Information 35 Market Behavior Rules: Effectiveness Review 45 Electric Power Market Profiles National Overview 49 California (CAISO) 69 Midwest (MISO) 77 New England (ISO–NE) 83 New York (NYISO) 91 Northwest 99 PJM 105 Southeast 115 Southwest 121 Southwest Power Pool (SPP) 127 Texas (ERCOT) 131 Natural Gas Market Profiles National Overview 137 Natural Gas Trading 151 Midwest 157 Northeast 165 South Central 175 Southeast 185 Western 193 Other Related Markets and Market Factors Overview 203 Coal 205 Demand Response 211 Emission Allowances 215 Energy Debt and Equity 221 Oil 225 Weather 229 Wind 231 Other Material Glossary • Acronyms 237 Analytic Note on Net Revenue Calculations 247 Acknowledgments • Contacts 249 Evaluation Form 253 State of the Markets Report • June 2005 3 4 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Office of Market Oversight and Investigations Executive Summary EXECUTIVE SUMMARY n 2004, U.S. natural gas and electric markets responded Pricing Ito broad upward price pressure as connections among energy markets became tighter. In New England in World oil prices rose 34 percent in 2004. This created January, for example, a short, severe cold snap pushed upward pressure on many energy commodity prices glob- the operational connections between natural gas and ally and affected energy markets in the United States. For example, electric markets to the limit. During the year, financial energy markets expanded as many participants found it • Average U.S. natural gas prices rose 7 percent nationally easier to enter the financial markets than the associated from 2003 to 2004, following a rise of 68 percent from physical natural gas and electric markets. Global influ- 2002 to 2003. Regional patterns persisted. Natural gas ences on U.S. energy markets manifested themselves in prices were relatively higher in the Northeast and lower the form of higher oil prices and (early in 2005) in an in the West. early but developing North Atlantic spot market for • Spot coal prices rose 69 percent for eastern (central natural gas. Appalachian) coal, and 7 percent for western (Powder State of the Markets Timeline: 2004 tion) tatus o PJM; (Conjunc t e es rganizationegrate s int sion o ork Cityonfidenc fails umberas indic ll omic dispa load record owerSO int tems trics agreement ation transmis to New Younces c ight & P eporting monthly n g akes landfa lectric sys YC mitig s newing peak year eal-time econ ommon me egional I start r egrates into MI ngland cold snap unches PJM option ice indices Dayton L sion auctiony coalition ann efines N olumes for eives r nd NG nia reache SO begins r ower int Duquesne integrates into PJM New E enth time dur EIA misreports Exelon/PSEG gas storage announces withdrawals merger tress on gas and e CAI SPP rec AEPS and U.S. renews Volume Federal of production working gas tax in credit storage FERC for approves wind NYISO FERC/MMU Nymex c laTransmis Industr NYISO ComEd r integrates into PlattsPJM a Califor : Hurricane Ivan m 1/14-16: 1/20: 2/12: 2/27: 3/10: 5/1: 5/1: 8/1: 9/8: 9/16 10/1: 10/1: 10/1: 10/4: 11/4: 11/24:12/20:12/28: 1/1/05: puts s in natural gas pr of trades and v for sev Illinois P hits all-time high of 3,322 realiabiltity Bcf planning process $200 $20 Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices ($/MMBtu) Prices Gas Natural Hub Henry $160 $16 $120 $12 1/15/04: $315 $80 $8 $40 $4 Range of Day-Ahead On-Peak PowerPrices ($/MWh) $0 $0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec State of the Markets Report • June 2005 5 Executive Summary River Basin) coal. Spot coal prices can influence electric • A cold snap in New England in January 2004 under- power prices significantly, because marginal generators scored the importance of tight integration between the can choose to sell the coal or burn it to sell power. gas and electric markets during periods of stress. Because large quantities of coal are purchased under Although the two markets successfully responded to the long-term contracts with specified prices, overall aver- severe weather, both industries subsequently analyzed age prices for coal rose only 6 percent. the event to learn how they could coordinate better in the future. • Sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions allowance prices rose by 153 percent in 2004. SO2 allowances were a major • Hurricane Ivan hit producing regions of the Gulf Coast input for coal-fired plants without scrubbers, adding as in September, reducing overall gas production in the much as $17.40 per MWh to a plant’s cost. United States by almost 1 percent. This probably con- tributed to a price increase in October. Electricity prices followed the pattern set by fuel and emis- sions prices. Investment • In most regions where natural gas tended to be on the As a whole, the U.S. electric industry had significant over- margin (e.g., New England, New York, Texas, and for capacity in generation in 2004. Appropriately, the markets on-peak hours at PJM West) prices increased by less than signaled no need for new capacity nationally. At the same 5 percent. Florida and California both depended heavi- time, specific constrained regions did not have adequate ly on natural gas, and their price increases were 8 to 12 capacity. These areas included Boston, southwest percent on peak—higher than for other gas-dependent Connecticut, New York City, New Orleans, much of south- areas. ern California, and the San Francisco Bay Area. Most of these areas also saw prices too low to signal new investment. • In areas where western coal tended to be on the margin (e.g., the Southwest and Great Plains), on-peak price • In regions without location-specific pricing, price increases were less than 6 percent. signals cannot distinguish between areas that need capacity and those that do not. Such regions include • Where eastern coal (and associated emissions those outside regional transmission organizations allowances) tended to be on the margin, prices rose (RTOs); areas within RTOs that do not yet have RTO- more. In the Southeast and the Midwest, on-peak managed spot markets (Southwest Power Pool—SPP— power prices rose by 11 to 19 percent. Off-peak prices in and the Midwest Independent System Operator— these regions increased even more, as much as 33 per- MISO—in 2004); and zones within RTOs with zonal cent. Similarly, at PJM West, where coal was more often pricing (California and Texas). on the margin during off-peak hours, the average off- peak price increase was 25 percent. • In New England, the independent system operator (ISO-NE) took many generators “out of market” and RTO markets continued to administratively adjust prices, required them to run for reliability reasons, reducing especially in reaction to market power concerns in price signals. The practice of pricing generators individ- constrained areas. ually was so common that almost no difference existed between the market prices that ISO-NE published for Weather and Its Effects on Markets energy in areas that were constrained versus those with- out constraints. Weather put little stress on energy markets during most of the year.