Insight Report The Net-Zero Challenge: Fast-Forward to Decisive Climate Action In collaboration with Boston Consulting Group January 2020 World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 Email: [email protected] www.weforum.org © 2020 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. Contents Foreword 4 Executive summary 5 1. The world needs to get to net zero, yet emissions continue to rise 6 2. Companies and investors should accelerate individual action – in their own interest 12 3. Ecosystem actions can help overcome barriers to transform 20 4. A call for unilateral government regulation 23 5. Individuals need to lead the change as consumers, voters and leaders 28 6. The way forward: An action plan for all stakeholders 29 Methodology 31 Contributors 32 References 34 Endnotes 35 The Net-Zero Challenge: Fast-Forward to Decisive Climate Action 3 Foreword Four years after world leaders met in Paris to agree on the historic Paris Climate Agreement, it is time to take an honest look at the progress on global climate action to date. This World Economic Forum and Boston Consulting Group report examines what corporations, governments and civil society have achieved since the accord was drafted in 2015 and assesses the current state of global climate action. This full report, The Net-Zero Challenge: Fast-Forward to Decisive Climate Action, follows “The Net-Zero Challenge: Global Climate Action at a Crossroads” Briefing Paper published in December 2019. The findings for this report are based on quantitative and qualitative assessments of governments, Patrick Herhold corporations, investors and societies. We conducted interviews with 13 climate experts and 24 Managing Director CEOs and executives of leading companies across all sectors – from energy and industrial firms with and Partner, high direct emissions, to technology, service and consumer businesses with significant influence Centre for Climate over the emissions of their supply chains and products. We analysed corporate data from CDP, a Action, Boston non-governmental organization that collates voluntary emissions disclosures from nearly 7,000 large Consulting Group companies, monitors global emissions and assesses policy frameworks from governments. Our analysis was supplemented with additional research from the Energy Transitions Commission (Mission Possible), International Energy Agency, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations Environment Programme, Climate Action Tracker and World Resources Institute, as well as previous work by Boston Consulting Group. At this year’s World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters, climate change is high on the agenda. The year 2020 marks the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, and there are high expectations that the 26th UN Conference of the Parties (COP26) in 2020 will deliver a meaningful international response to the climate crisis. With this crucial milestone ahead, we have an opportunity to build a strong, unified call for accelerated action among business and government leaders. We must turn the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions around to ensure that global warming stays Emily Farnworth within safe limits. While the risks of inaction are mounting, it is still possible to prevent the worst effects Head of Climate of global warming. The costs of abatement are falling and the technological solutions needed to Change Initiatives, decarbonize our economies are available. World Economic Forum It is within everyone’s power and responsibility to act. This report aims to help clarify the path ahead and encourage the decisive acceleration of climate action. 4 The Net-Zero Challenge: Fast-Forward to Decisive Climate Action Executive summary In 2015, world leaders met in Paris and agreed to limit a global Ecosystem actions can overcome barriers, through temperature rise by the end of the century to well below 2°C collaborations along value chains or with industry peers. It and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even will take a joint effort to overcome existing transformation barriers further to 1.5°C. In the past decade, however, emissions have in sectors where decarbonization costs are too high for individual continued to increase at a rate of 1.5% per annum. A reduction companies to bear alone. Through cooperation in coalitions, of approximately 3-6% per annum between now and 2030 is companies can share the risks of technology development and needed to limit global warming to 1.5-2°C.1 coordinate related investments in the development of low- carbon solutions. They can generate a demand signal through Progress on climate action to date has been limited. On joint commitments or standards, and set up self-regulating the government side, while 121 countries have now committed bodies in areas where government policies fall short. to be carbon neutral by 2050,2 they account for less than 25% of emissions. None of these countries are among the top five Investor action can enable transparency and support long- emitters, and few, in spite of the commitment, have enacted term decarbonization plans. Investors can coordinate to define policies that are robust enough to produce the desired effects. and apply standards for disclosure and reporting. Such efforts On the corporate side, only a minority of companies fully can encourage companies to address their climate-related disclose their emissions. Even fewer have emissions targets or risks. Even more importantly, investors can increase scrutiny on are in the process of making reductions in line with the Paris long-term climate risks and opportunities, and encourage asset Agreement trajectory.3 And while investors have begun to managers to set long-term targets and strategies towards net- recognize the importance of assessing climate-related risks, zero emissions. liabilities and opportunities, much of their day-to-day decision- making continues to be dominated by an emphasis on short- Governments can unilaterally enact national regulation to term performance. In light of this global inertia, public pressure reduce emissions immediately. Many countries can benefit and global activism have surged in recent years, especially economically from carbon abatement investments. To deliver on among the youth and in Western countries. However, public the net-zero ambition, they would need to enact ambitious policy education on the threat of climate change and related climate frameworks that include a meaningful price on greenhouse gas action is still insufficient to make this a global phenomenon. emissions. However, while carbon pricing is regarded as an effective and necessary lever, it is unlikely to be sufficient. For Since progress in international negotiations is one thing, abatement costs differ widely across sectors, which disappointing, corporations and governments need to implies that carbon prices incentivize some sectors to move move unilaterally. The world needs cohesive and swift global earlier than others – while practically all sectors would need to policy action – and progress is urgently needed at the Annual start abating today. Alongside carbon pricing, sector-specific Meeting in Davos-Klosters and the COP26 this year. But with regulations and incentives would promote remedies such as a the slow pace of international climate negotiations to date switch from fossil fuels to renewable energies, electric mobility, and the complex political context, the reality is that a global efficiency, green building standards – supported by accelerated consensus will very likely not be established soon enough to innovation. As long as the world as a whole is moving slowly, counter the crisis. Individual governments and corporations national efforts will also require measures to protect emission- can and should move ahead with unilateral initiatives; it is about intensive industries from high-carbon, low-cost competition, realizing savings from efficiency improvements, managing through mechanisms like cross-border carbon taxes and low- risks, pursuing new opportunities and maintaining the long- carbon product standards. term licence to operate. While no single actor can halt global warming alone, efforts by leading industrial nations or large Individuals need to drive climate action in their roles as corporations can have a multiplier effect. consumers, voters, leaders and activists. The transition to a net-zero economy will be a transformational shift for all of Corporations can accelerate individual action and society. Individuals have to take the lead in inciting governments, commit to meaningful short- and long-term reductions. businesses and every part of society to move. Companies in all sectors can do much more to reduce the emission intensity of their business and supply chains The world is at a crossroads: We must fast-forward to through measures that cost them little or nothing, and can decisive and cohesive action. The coming decade will offset residual emissions. All should actively monitor and determine whether humanity retains a fighting chance to limit manage their climate-related risks and increase their efforts warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C. The later action is taken, the to achieve a 1.5-2°C world (for example, with internal more dire our position will become. The technologies for a