Minnesota Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: a Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project
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United States Department of Agriculture Minnesota Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project Note to FR3104_5104 students. This document contains excerpts of the full report. If you are interested in the full report see http:// www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/ pubs/45939 and download the .pdf Forest Northern General Technical Service Research Station Report NRS-133 May 2014 ABSTRACT The forests in northern Minnesota will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate during the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of Minnesota under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and land managers familiar with northern Minnesota forests to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate during the past century reveal that precipitation increased in the area, particularly in summer and fall, and that daily maximum temperatures increased, particularly in winter. Projected climate trends for the next 100 years using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 3.0 to 8.8 °F for the assessment area. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these climate projections into three forest impact models (Tree Atlas, LANDIS-II, and PnET-CN). Model projections suggest that northern boreal species such as black spruce and paper birch may fare worse under future conditions, but other species such as American basswood and white pine may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for eight forest systems in northern Minnesota: six Native Plant Community Systems and two managed forest systems. The basic assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process of 23 science and management experts from across the state, who considered vulnerability in terms of potential impacts on a system and the system’s adaptive capacity. Acid Peatlands, Forested Rich Peatlands, and Wet Forests were determined to be the most vulnerable. Systems adapted to disturbance through fire and drought or flooding, such as Fire-Dependent Forests or Floodplain Forests, were perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest- dependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-range planning. Cover Photo Fall colors in northeastern Minnesota. Photo by Jack Greenlee, Superior National Forest. Manuscript received for publication September 2013 Published by: For additional copies, contact: USDA FOREST SERVICE USDA Forest Service 11 CAMPUS BLVD., SUITE 200 Publications Distribution NEWTOWN SQUARE, PA 19073-3294 359 Main Road Delaware, OH 43015-8640 May 2014 Fax: 740-368-0152 Visit our homepage at: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/ Minnesota Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project Stephen Handler, Matthew J. Duveneck, Louis Iverson, Emily Peters, Robert M. Scheller, Kirk R. Wythers, Leslie Brandt, Patricia Butler, Maria Janowiak, P. Danielle Shannon, Chris Swanston, Kelly Barrett, Randy Kolka, Casey McQuiston, Brian Palik, Peter B. Reich, Clarence Turner, Mark White, Cheryl Adams, Anthony D’Amato, Suzanne Hagell, Patricia Johnson, Rosemary Johnson, Mike Larson, Stephen Matthews, Rebecca Montgomery, Steve Olson, Matthew Peters, Anantha Prasad, Jack Rajala, Jad Daley, Mae Davenport, Marla R. Emery, David Fehringer, Christopher L. Hoving, Gary Johnson, Lucinda Johnson, David Neitzel, Adena Rissman, Chadwick Rittenhouse, and Robert Ziel AUTHOrs STEPHEN HANDLER is a climate change specialist with KELLY BARRETT is a wildlife biologist with the Chippewa the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. National Forest, 1235 Division Street, Deer River, MN 56636, Forest Service, 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. [email protected]. RANDY KOLKA is a team leader and research soil scientist MATTHEW J. DUVENECK is a postdoctoral fellow with with the U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Harvard Forest, Harvard University, 324 North Main Street, 1831 Hwy 169 East, Grand Rapids, MN 55744, Petersham, MA 01366, [email protected]. [email protected]. LOUIS IVERSON is a landscape ecologist with the U.S. CASEY McQUISTON is a soil scientist with the Superior Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 359 Main Road, National Forest, 8901 Grand Avenue Place, Duluth, Delaware, OH 43015, [email protected]. MN 55808, [email protected]. EMILY PETERS is a data analyst with Minnesota Pollution BRIAN PALIK is a team leader and research ecologist with Control Agency, 520 Lafayette Road N., St. Paul, MN 55155, the U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, [email protected]. 1831 Hwy 169 East, Grand Rapids, MN 55744, ROBERT M. SCHELLER is an assistant professor at Portland [email protected]. State University, 1719 SW 10th Avenue, Portland, OR 97207, PETER B. REICH is a professor at the University of Minnesota, [email protected]. 1530 Cleveland Avenue N., St. Paul, MN 55108, KIRK R. WYTHERS is a research fellow at the University of [email protected]. Minnesota, 1530 Cleveland Avenue N., St. Paul, MN 55108, CLARENCE TURNER is an ecologist and climate change [email protected]. specialist with the Minnesota Department of Natural LESLIE BRANDT is a climate change specialist with the Resources and the Minnesota Forest Resources Council, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. 500 Lafayette Road, St. Paul, MN 55155, Forest Service, 1992 Folwell Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, [email protected]. [email protected]. MARK WHITE is a forest ecologist with The Nature PATRICIA BUTLER is a climate change outreach specialist with Conservancy, 94 S. Lake Avenue, #308, Duluth, MN 55802, the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, Michigan [email protected]. Technological University, School of Forest Resources and CHERYL ADAMS is a forest ecologist with UPM-Kymmene Environmental Science, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, Blandin Paper Mill, 115 SW First Street, Grand Rapids, MI 49931, [email protected]. MN 55744, [email protected]. MARIA JANOWIAK is a climate change adaptation and ANTHONY D’AMATO is an associate professor at the carbon management scientist with the Northern Institute University of Minnesota, 1530 Cleveland Avenue N., of Applied Climate Science, U.S. Forest Service, St. Paul, MN 55108, [email protected]. 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, SUZANNE HAGELL is a research associate at the University [email protected]. of Wisconsin – Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, P. DANIELLE SHANNON is a climate change outreach WI 53706, [email protected]. specialist with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate PATRICIA JOHNSON is a fire management officer with the Science, Michigan Technological University, School of Superior National Forest, 2020 W. Hwy 61, Grand Marais, Forest Resources and Environmental Science, MN 55604, [email protected]. 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. ROSEMARY JOHNSON is a silviculturist with the Chippewa National Forest, 201 Minnesota Avenue E., Walker, CHRIS SWANSTON is a research ecologist with the U.S. MN 56484, [email protected]. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, and director of the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, MIKE LARSON is a research scientist with the Minnesota 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, Department of Natural Resources, 1201 E. Hwy 2, [email protected]. Grand Rapids, MN 55744, [email protected]. STEPHEN MATTHEWS is a research assistant professor DAVID FEHRINGER is the Great Lakes assistant at Ohio State University and an ecologist with the U.S. regional director with The Forestland Group, LLC, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 359 Main Road, 33687 Lake Gerald Road, Toivola, MI 49965, Delaware, OH 43015, [email protected]. [email protected]. REBECCA MONTGOMERY is an associate professor at the CHRISTOPHER L. HOVING is an adaptation specialist with the University of Minnesota, 1530 Cleveland Avenue N., St. Paul, Michigan Department of Natural Resources, P.O. Box 30028, MN 55108, [email protected]. Lansing, MI 48909, [email protected]. STEVE OLSON is a forester with the Fond Du Lac Band of GARY JOHNSON is an extension professor at the University Lake Superior Chippewa, 1720 Big Lake Road, Cloquet, of Minnesota, 1530 Cleveland Avenue N., St. Paul, MN 55720, [email protected].