United States Department of Agriculture Michigan Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project Forest Northern General Technical Service Research Station Report NRS-129 March 2014 ABSTRACT The forests in northern Michigan will be affected directly and indirectly by changing climate during the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and land managers familiar with Michigan forests to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate over the past century reveal that precipitation increased in the area, particularly in summer and fall, and that daily maximum temperatures increased, particularly in winter. Projected climate trends for the next 100 years using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 2.2 to 8.1 °F for the assessment area. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these climate projections into three forest impact models (Tree Atlas, LANDIS-II, and PnET-CN). Model projections suggest that northern boreal species such as black spruce and paper birch may fare worse under future conditions, but other species such as American elm and white oak may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for nine forest communities in the assessment area, which were a combination of U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program forest types and Michigan Natural Features Inventory natural communities. The basic assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process of 27 science and management experts from across the state, who considered vulnerability both in terms of potential impacts on a system and in terms of the system’s adaptive capacity. Upland spruce-fir, jack pine, lowland conifers, and red pine-white pine forest communities were determined to be the most vulnerable. Barrens and lowland/riparian hardwood communities were perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-range planning. Cover Photo Douglas Lake at the University of Michigan Biological Station. Photo by Stephen Handler, U.S. Forest Service. Manuscript received for publication August 2013 Published by: For additional copies, contact: USDA FOREST SERVICE USDA Forest Service 11 CAMPUS BLVD., SUITE 200 Publications Distribution NEWTOWN SQUARE, PA 19073-3294 359 Main Road Delaware, OH 43015-8640 March 2014 Fax: 740-368-0152 Visit our homepage at: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/ Michigan Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project Stephen Handler, Matthew J. Duveneck, Louis Iverson, Emily Peters, Robert M. Scheller, Kirk R. Wythers, Leslie Brandt, Patricia Butler, Maria Janowiak, P. Danielle Shannon, Chris Swanston, Amy Clark Eagle, Joshua G. Cohen, Rich Corner, Peter B. Reich, Tim Baker, Sophan Chhin, Eric Clark, David Fehringer, Jon Fosgitt, James Gries, Christine Hall, Kimberly R. Hall, Robert Heyd, Christopher L. Hoving, Ines Ibáñez, Don Kuhr, Stephen Matthews, Jennifer Muladore, Knute Nadelhoffer, David Neumann, Matthew Peters, Anantha Prasad, Matt Sands, Randy Swaty, Leiloni Wonch, Jad Daley, Mae Davenport, Marla R. Emery, Gary Johnson, Lucinda Johnson, David Neitzel, Adena Rissman, Chadwick Rittenhouse, and Robert Ziel AUTHOrs STEPHEN HANDLER is a climate change specialist with JOSHUA G. COHEN is the lead ecologist with Michigan the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. Natural Features Inventory, 530 West Allegan Street, Forest Service, 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, Lansing, MI 48933, [email protected]. [email protected]. RICH CORNER is the Watershed, Soils, and Botany program MATTHEW J. DUVENECK is a Ph.D. candidate at Portland manager with the Huron-Manistee National Forests, State University, 1719 SW 10th Avenue, Portland, OR 97207, 1755 South Mitchell Street, Cadillac, MI 49601, [email protected]. [email protected]. LOUIS IVERSON is a landscape ecologist with the U.S. PETER B. REICH is a professor at the University of Minnesota, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 359 Main Road, 1530 Cleveland Avenue N., St. Paul, MN 55108, Delaware, OH 43015, [email protected]. [email protected]. EMILY PETERS is a forest ecologist for the University of TIM BAKER is the forest silviculturist with the Hiawatha Minnesota’s Institute on the Environment, 1954 Buford National Forest, 820 Rains Drive, Gladstone, MI 49837, Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, [email protected]. [email protected]. ROBERT M. SCHELLER is an assistant professor at Portland SOPHAN CHHIN is an assistant professor at Michigan State State University, 1719 SW 10th Avenue, Portland, OR 97207, University, 480 Wilson Road, Room 126, East Lansing, [email protected]. MI 48824-1222, [email protected]. KIRK R. WYTHERS is a research fellow at the University of ERIC CLARK is a biologist with the Sault Ste. Marie Tribe of Minnesota, 1530 Cleveland Avenue N., St. Paul, MN 55108, Chippewa Indians, 523 Ashmun Street, Sault Ste. Marie, [email protected]. MI 49783, [email protected]. LESLIE BRANDT is a climate change specialist with the DAVID FEHRINGER is the Great Lakes assistant regional Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. Forest director with The Forestland Group, LLC, 33687 Lake Gerald Service, 1992 Folwell Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, Road, Toivola, MI 49965, [email protected]. [email protected]. JON FOSGITT is a forest management specialist with PATRICIA BUTLER is a climate change outreach specialist with Compass Land Consultants, Inc., E5539 Woodland Avenue, the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, Michigan AuTrain, MI 49806, [email protected]. Technological University, School of Forest Resources and JAMES GRIES is the Soils, Watershed, and Ecology program Environmental Science, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, manager with the Hiawatha National Forest, 820 Rains MI 49931, [email protected]. Drive, Gladstone, MI 49837, [email protected]. MARIA JANOWIAK is a climate change adaptation and CHRISTINE HALL is the director of Land Resources with carbon management scientist with the Northern Institute of The Nature Conservancy, 101 South Front Street, Suite 105, Applied Climate Science, U.S. Forest Service, 410 MacInnes Marquette, MI 49855, [email protected]. Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. KIMBERLY R. HALL is the Great Lakes climate change P. DANIELLE SHANNON is a climate change outreach ecologist with The Nature Conservancy, 101 East Grand specialist with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate River, Lansing, MI 48906, [email protected]. Science, Michigan Technological University, School of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, 1400 Townsend ROBERT HEYD is a Forest Pest Management program Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. manager with the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, 1990 US 41 South, Marquette, MI 49855, CHRIS SWANSTON is a research ecologist with the U.S. Forest [email protected]. Service, Northern Research Station, and director of the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, 410 MacInnes CHRISTOPHER L. HOVING is an adaptation specialist with the Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. Michigan Department of Natural Resources, P.O. Box 30028, Lansing, MI 48909, [email protected]. AMY CLARK EAGLE is the Biodiversity and Conservation program leader with the Michigan Department of Natural INES IBÁÑEZ is an assistant professor at the University of Resources, P.O. Box 30028, Lansing, MI 48909, Michigan, 440 Church Street, DANA Building, Ann Arbor, [email protected]. MI 48109, [email protected]. DON KUHR is a regional timber management specialist with JAD DALEY is a program director at the Trust for Public Land, the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, 5100 M-28, 660 Pennsylvania Avenue SE., Suite 401, Washington, Newberry, MI 49868, [email protected]. DC 20003, [email protected]. STEPHEN MATTHEWS is a research assistant professor MAE DAVENPORT is an associate professor at the University at Ohio State University and an ecologist with the U.S. of Minnesota, 1530 Cleveland Avenue N., St. Paul, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 359 Main Road, MN 55108, [email protected]. Delaware, OH 43015, [email protected].