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Sohu.Com Search the Only Bright Spot in a Lackluster Quarter

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Sohu.Com Search the Only Bright Spot in a Lackluster Quarter Equity Research January 26, 2016 Sohu.com Search the only bright spot in a lackluster quarter Results Preview Maintain BUY 4Q15 revenue below consensus, weak 1Q16 ahead Ticker SOHU.US We expect 4Q15 revenue of US$448mn (-6% YoY & CICC investment rating BUY -14% QoQ), 2.3% below consensus, as the strong Last close US$51.38 CICC target US$58.00 performance of Sogou was offset by the sluggish online video and game businesses. Non-GAAP net loss is expected to be 52wk price range US$71.78~40.20 US$10mn, slightly better than consensus of US$13.2mn. 1Q16 Market cap (bn) US$2 guidance to be impacted by: 1) weak game pipeline; and, 2) Daily value (mn) US$19.40 weak ad seasonality, which we expect will miss by 1.7%. Shares outstanding (mn) 39 Free float (%) 79 Daily volume (mn sh) 0.37 Business sector Internet Trends to watch Sogou to trend stronger after addition of Zhihu Search SOHU.US NASDAQ function (Chinese version of Quora); Sogou search ad revenue 128 +10% QoQ in 4Q15e, and NP margin to improve to ~25%. 114 100 SOHU Video keeps losing market share amid fierce competition and rising content costs. iQiyi, Tencent video 86 and Youku now rank as the top three in online video, with the (%) Value Relative 72 first two the most likely final winners. As of November 2015 58 iResearch Data, Sohu Video had MAU of 175.9mn vs. iQiyi’s Jan-2015 Apr-2015 Jul-2015 Oct-2015 Jan-2016 259.5mn, while monthly usage was ~41% that of iQiyi. On the mobile-end, its traffic was ~1/5 of iQiyi; we thus expect video (US$ mn) 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E revenue +3% YoY & -8% QoQ to US$53mn in 4Q15, making Revenue 1,673 1,869 1,924 2,197 Sohu video’s revenue for the whole year ~30% that of iQiyi. (+/-) 19.5% 11.7% 2.9% 14.2% Net profit -167 -41 -32 -77 (+/-) N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. Valuation and recommendation Net profit (Non-GAAP) -115 -1 -3 -45 Slightly trim 4Q15/2015e revenue by 0.5%/0.1% on (+/-) N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. lukewarm video & game business. SOHU CEO, Charles EPS -4.33 -1.05 -0.84 -2.01 Zhang, made a non-binding proposal to purchase US$600mn of EPS (Non-GAAP) -2.98 -0.02 -0.09 -1.16 common stock, but this is subject to a maximum of US$50 per BPS 31.23 30.13 29.24 27.18 share. This move may support the stock >US$50, but made it SPS 43.48 48.58 50.01 57.09 more difficult to be privatized, thus harder to unlock SOTP. Cash flow per share 3.96 13.96 10.71 15.48 Maintain BUY rating and TP of US$58 on its undervalued P/E N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. status, but we still see limited upside catalysts for the stock in P/E (Non-GAAP) N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. the short term, and Sogou may miss the best time/opportunity to P/B 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 be listed if there has still been no move in next 6~12 months. P/S 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 ROAA -3.9% 0.0% -0.1% -1.3% ROAE -9.1% -0.1% -0.3% -4.1% Risks Source: Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research Competition in video; further deterioration of game business. Haofei CHEN Natalie Yue WU, CFA [email protected] [email protected] SAC Reg. No.: S0080511030015 SAC Reg. No.: S0080515100002 SFC CE Ref: AJD676 SFC CE Ref: BDI411 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report CICC Research: January 26, 2016 Financial summary Financial statement (USD mn) 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Financial ratios 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Income statement Growth ability Net revenue 1,673 1,869 1,924 2,197 Revenue 19.5% 11.7% 2.9% 14.2% COGS -686 -843 -841 -1,019 Operating profit -211.7% N.M. 382.6% -6.5% SG&A expenses -731 -548 -549 -558 EBITDA -98.6% N.M. 63.8% -0.3% R&D expenses -409 -394 -409 -467 Net profit N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. Other operating expenses -52 -40 -40 -40 Non-GAAP net profit N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. Operating profit -205 43 206 192 Profitability Finance costs 31 22 26 30 Gross margin 59.0% 54.9% 56.3% 53.6% Other income (expense) 10 75 12 12 Operating margin -12.3% 2.3% 10.7% 8.8% Profit before income tax -165 140 243 234 EBITDA margin 0.2% 15.3% 24.3% 21.2% Income tax -6 -70 -51 -44 Net margin -10.0% -2.2% -1.7% -3.5% Net profit -167 -41 -32 -77 Non-GAAP net margin -6.8% -0.0% -0.2% -2.0% Minority interest 5 -147 -184 -221 Liquidity Non-GAAP net profit -115 -1 -3 -45 Current ratio 2.14 1.95 2.07 1.93 EBITDA 3 286 468 467 Quick ratio 2.14 1.95 2.07 1.93 Balance sheet Cash ratio 1.10 1.13 1.21 1.16 Cash and bank balances 876 1,040 1,068 1,226 Liabilities / assets 41.1% 42.2% 39.5% 40.8% Trade and bill receivables 230 215 221 253 Net debt / equity net cash net cash net cash net cash Inventories 0 0 0 0 Return Other current assets 590 549 549 549 RoA -3.9% -0.0% -0.1% -1.3% Total current assets 1,697 1,804 1,839 2,027 RoE -9.1% -0.1% -0.3% -4.1% Fixed assets and CIP 541 668 753 882 Per-share data Intangible assets 414 415 407 398 EPS (USD) -4.33 -1.05 -0.84 -2.01 Total non-current assets 1,170 1,298 1,375 1,495 EPS (Non-GAAP) (USD) -2.98 -0.02 -0.09 -1.16 Total assets 2,867 3,102 3,214 3,522 BPS (USD) 31.23 30.13 29.24 27.18 Short-term borrowings 26 26 26 26 SPS (USD) 43.48 48.58 50.01 57.09 Trade and bill payables 624 659 789 751 CPS (USD) 3.96 13.96 10.71 15.48 Other current liabilities 145 240 71 276 Valuation Total current liabilities 794 925 886 1,053 P/E N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. Long-term borrowings 345 345 345 345 P/E (Non-GAAP) N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. Total non-current liabilities 384 384 384 384 P/B 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 Total liabilities 1,178 1,308 1,270 1,437 EV/EBITDA 559.7 6.8 4.5 4.6 Minority interests 487 635 819 1,040 Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total shareholders' equity 1,202 1,159 1,125 1,046 Total liabilities & equity 2,867 3,102 3,214 3,522 Cash flow statement Pretax profit -171 107 152 144 Depreciation & amortization 208 243 305 316 Change in working capital 60 146 -45 135 Others 55 42 0 0 Cash flow from operations 152 537 412 596 Capital expenditure -290 -371 -382 -436 Others -148 0 0 0 Cash flow from investing -438 -371 -382 -436 Equity financing -40 0 0 0 Lend from bank 0 0 0 0 Others -83 0 0 0 Cash flow from financing -123 0 0 0 Foreign exchange gain (loss) -2 -2 -2 -2 Net changes in cash -411 164 28 157 Source: Company data, CICC Research Company description Sohu, incorporated in 1995, is a China-based internet company engaged in several business activities through different subsidiaries: online portal business via Sohu.com, online games via Changyou (CYOU.US), video business via Sohu Video, the real estate vertical via Focus.cn and online search via Sogou. Sohu was listed on Nasdaq in July 2000. Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2 CICC Research: January 26, 2016 Figure 1: Some hit shows of Sohu Video during 4Q15 Show name - Eng Show name - CN Genre Launch Date Remarks Dream Team 中韩梦之队 Reality show 9.19 As of Jan 25, 2016, total play on Sohu Video reached 69.68mn, ranked No. among all video platforms Diors Woman S04 极品女士第四季 In-house developed 10.14 As the end of Nov-2015, total play of S01/02/03 online comedy reached 1bn times Love me, if you dare 他来了，请闭眼 In-house developed 10.15 Audience rating reached 0.675% for the first series drama episode, ranked No.1 among all the TV show s during the same period of time Qin's Moon 秦时明月 Ancient costume 11.29 As of Jan 25, 2016, total play on Sohu Video series reached 370mn, ranked No. among all video platforms GPGDL 高品格单恋 In-house developed 11.13 Total play surpassed 12mn in 3 days Korean drama YXSS 夜行书生 Imported Korean 12.01 Exclusive broadcasting, as of Jan 25, 2016, total drama play reached 86.11mn Source: Open information, Company Data, CICC Research Figure 2: Quarterly Financials Income Statement (US$ mn) 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15E 4Q15E 2015E 2016E Gross Revenue 1,400.3 365.3 400.2 430.4 477.2 1,673.1 455.3 493.6 522.1 448.4 1,869.2 1,924.0 Advertising 627.5 175.4 218.5 247.3 257.9 899.0 238.9 286.1 299.5 305.0 1,129.5 1,355.2 Brand advertising 428.5 111.1 133.4 148.8 147.8 541.2 133.8 150.8 151.5 143.0 579.2 581.0 Sponsored search 199.0 64.3 85.1 98.4 110.0 357.8 105.1 135.2 147.9 162.0 550.3 774.3 Non-advertising 772.8 189.9 181.7 183.2 219.3 774.1 216.4 207.5 222.6 143.4 739.7 568.8 Online game 669.1 163.4 153.9 150.3 184.4 652.0 185.0 172.4 152.5 126.5 631.2 465.7 Wireless and others 53.6 - 16.0 7.7 15.0 47.0 10.0 12.3 14.4 14.0 41.0 39.0 Cost of Revenue (480.1) (138.5) (169.9) (181.7) (195.6) (685.6) (222.2) (221.2) (214.2) (191.0) (843.4) (802.4) Gross profit 920.2 226.8 230.3 248.8 281.6 987.4 233.2 272.4 307.9 257.4 1,025.8 1,121.6 Product Development (276.1) (117.7) (102.2) (108.0) (81.4) (409.3) (102.2) (100.8) (92.8) (98.7) (394.4) (409.4) Sales and Marketing (351.6) (142.4) (136.6) (131.7) (115.8) (526.5) (83.1) (104.0) (98.6) (98.7) (384.4) (406.6) General and Administrative (109.0) (35.4) (53.2) (49.7) (66.0) (204.3) (45.2) (49.7) (33.3) (35.9) (164.1) (142.4) Income (loss) from operations 183.5 (68.6) (61.8) (40.7) (33.9) (205.0) 2.7 17.9 42.9 24.3 42.6 163.2 Other Income/(Expense) 12.7 3.8 0.7 0.9 4.6 10.0 3.2 (0.4) 70.2 2.0 74.9 12.0 Interest Income and exchange difference 27.8 8.5 8.8 7.5 6.3 31.0 6.0 6.2 5.2 5.0 22.5 25.8 Profit before income tax 224.0 (55.8) (52.3) (32.9) (24.1) (165.2) 11.7 23.0 122.6 31.3 140.0 201.0 Income tax expense (50.4) (0.2) 1.7 1.0 (8.6) (6.1) (16.3) (11.5) (29.5) (12.6) (69.9) (50.7) No controlling Interest 182.3 22.8 (9.4) (4.8) (13.2) (4.6) 26.5 38.7 42.1 40.0 147.3 184.2 Net income (loss) (8.7) (78.9) (41.1) (27.1) (19.6) (166.7) (31.1) (27.2) 39.1 (21.3) (40.6) (32.1) Fully diluted Shares (mn) 38.6 38.4 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.6 Fully diluted EPS(Rmb) (0.6) (7.8) (5.5) (3.8) (2.2) (18.5) (4.1) (2.3) 7.9 (1.6) (0.1) (0.5) Fully diluted EPS(US$) (0.30) (2.05) (1.07) (0.74) (0.51) (4.33) (0.81) (0.71) 1.00 (0.55) (1.07) (0.83) Non GAAP fully diluted EPS(US$) (0.10) (1.26) (0.88) (0.61) (0.35) (2.98) (0.66) (0.37) 1.27 (0.26) (0.02) (0.09) Source: Company Data, CICC Research Figure 3: Earnings Revision Income Statement (US$ mn) 4Q14E 2015E 4Q14E 2015E 4Q14E 2015E Revenues 451 1872 448 1869 -0.5% -0.1% Brand advertising 148 584 143 579 -3.4% -0.9% Sponsored search 154 542 162 550 5.2% 1.5% Online game 127 637 126 631 -0.2% -0.8% Cost of revenues (198) (856) (191) (843) -3.6% -1.4% Gross profit 253 1016 257 1026 1.9% 1.0% Net profit (19) (38) (21) (41) n.a.
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