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Equity Research January 26, 2016

Sohu.com Search the only bright spot in a lackluster quarter

Results Preview Maintain BUY

4Q15 revenue below consensus, weak 1Q16 ahead Ticker .US We expect 4Q15 revenue of US$448mn (-6% YoY & CICC investment rating BUY

-14% QoQ), 2.3% below consensus, as the strong Last close US$51.38 CICC target US$58.00 performance of was offset by the sluggish online and game businesses. Non-GAAP net loss is expected to be 52wk price range US$71.78~40.20 US$10mn, slightly better than consensus of US$13.2mn. 1Q16 Market cap (bn) US$2 guidance to be impacted by: 1) weak game pipeline; and, 2) Daily value (mn) US$19.40 weak ad seasonality, which we expect will miss by 1.7%. Shares outstanding (mn) 39 Free float (%) 79 Daily volume (mn sh) 0.37 Business sector Internet Trends to watch Sogou to trend stronger after addition of Search SOHU.US NASDAQ function (Chinese version of Quora); Sogou search ad revenue 128 +10% QoQ in 4Q15e, and NP margin to improve to ~25%. 114

100 SOHU Video keeps losing market share amid fierce competition and rising content costs. iQiyi, video 86 and rank as the top three in online video, with the (%) Value Relative 72 first two the most likely final winners. As of November 2015 58 iResearch Data, Sohu Video had MAU of 175.9mn vs. iQiyi’s Jan-2015 Apr-2015 Jul-2015 Oct-2015 Jan-2016 259.5mn, while monthly usage was ~41% that of iQiyi. On the mobile-end, its traffic was ~1/5 of iQiyi; we thus expect video (US$ mn) 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E revenue +3% YoY & -8% QoQ to US$53mn in 4Q15, making Revenue 1,673 1,869 1,924 2,197 Sohu video’s revenue for the whole year ~30% that of iQiyi. (+/-) 19.5% 11.7% 2.9% 14.2% Net profit -167 -41 -32 -77 (+/-) N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. Valuation and recommendation Net profit (Non-GAAP) -115 -1 -3 -45 Slightly trim 4Q15/2015e revenue by 0.5%/0.1% on (+/-) N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. lukewarm video & game business. SOHU CEO, Charles EPS -4.33 -1.05 -0.84 -2.01

Zhang, made a non-binding proposal to purchase US$600mn of EPS (Non-GAAP) -2.98 -0.02 -0.09 -1.16 common stock, but this is subject to a maximum of US$50 per BPS 31.23 30.13 29.24 27.18 share. This move may support the stock >US$50, but made it SPS 43.48 48.58 50.01 57.09 more difficult to be privatized, thus harder to unlock SOTP. Cash flow per share 3.96 13.96 10.71 15.48 Maintain BUY rating and TP of US$58 on its undervalued P/E N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. status, but we still see limited upside catalysts for the stock in P/E (Non-GAAP) N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. the short term, and Sogou may miss the best time/opportunity to P/B 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 be listed if there has still been no move in next 6~12 months. P/S 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 ROAA -3.9% 0.0% -0.1% -1.3% ROAE -9.1% -0.1% -0.3% -4.1% Risks Source: Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research Competition in video; further deterioration of game business.

Haofei CHEN Natalie Yue WU, CFA [email protected] [email protected] SAC Reg. No.: S0080511030015 SAC Reg. No.: S0080515100002 SFC CE Ref: AJD676 SFC CE Ref: BDI411

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report CICC Research: January 26, 2016

Financial summary

Financial statement (USD mn) 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Financial ratios 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Income statement Growth ability Net revenue 1,673 1,869 1,924 2,197 Revenue 19.5% 11.7% 2.9% 14.2% COGS -686 -843 -841 -1,019 Operating profit -211.7% N.M. 382.6% -6.5% SG&A expenses -731 -548 -549 -558 EBITDA -98.6% N.M. 63.8% -0.3% R&D expenses -409 -394 -409 -467 Net profit N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. Other operating expenses -52 -40 -40 -40 Non-GAAP net profit N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. Operating profit -205 43 206 192 Profitability Finance costs 31 22 26 30 Gross margin 59.0% 54.9% 56.3% 53.6% Other income (expense) 10 75 12 12 Operating margin -12.3% 2.3% 10.7% 8.8% Profit before income tax -165 140 243 234 EBITDA margin 0.2% 15.3% 24.3% 21.2% Income tax -6 -70 -51 -44 Net margin -10.0% -2.2% -1.7% -3.5% Net profit -167 -41 -32 -77 Non-GAAP net margin -6.8% -0.0% -0.2% -2.0% Minority interest 5 -147 -184 -221 Liquidity Non-GAAP net profit -115 -1 -3 -45 Current ratio 2.14 1.95 2.07 1.93 EBITDA 3 286 468 467 Quick ratio 2.14 1.95 2.07 1.93 Balance sheet Cash ratio 1.10 1.13 1.21 1.16 Cash and bank balances 876 1,040 1,068 1,226 Liabilities / assets 41.1% 42.2% 39.5% 40.8% Trade and bill receivables 230 215 221 253 Net debt / equity net cash net cash net cash net cash Inventories 0 0 0 0 Return Other current assets 590 549 549 549 RoA -3.9% -0.0% -0.1% -1.3% Total current assets 1,697 1,804 1,839 2,027 RoE -9.1% -0.1% -0.3% -4.1% Fixed assets and CIP 541 668 753 882 Per-share data Intangible assets 414 415 407 398 EPS (USD) -4.33 -1.05 -0.84 -2.01 Total non-current assets 1,170 1,298 1,375 1,495 EPS (Non-GAAP) (USD) -2.98 -0.02 -0.09 -1.16 Total assets 2,867 3,102 3,214 3,522 BPS (USD) 31.23 30.13 29.24 27.18 Short-term borrowings 26 26 26 26 SPS (USD) 43.48 48.58 50.01 57.09 Trade and bill payables 624 659 789 751 CPS (USD) 3.96 13.96 10.71 15.48 Other current liabilities 145 240 71 276 Valuation Total current liabilities 794 925 886 1,053 P/E N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. Long-term borrowings 345 345 345 345 P/E (Non-GAAP) N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. Total non-current liabilities 384 384 384 384 P/B 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 Total liabilities 1,178 1,308 1,270 1,437 EV/EBITDA 559.7 6.8 4.5 4.6 Minority interests 487 635 819 1,040 Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Total shareholders' equity 1,202 1,159 1,125 1,046 Total liabilities & equity 2,867 3,102 3,214 3,522 Cash flow statement Pretax profit -171 107 152 144 Depreciation & amortization 208 243 305 316 Change in working capital 60 146 -45 135 Others 55 42 0 0 Cash flow from operations 152 537 412 596 Capital expenditure -290 -371 -382 -436 Others -148 0 0 0 Cash flow from investing -438 -371 -382 -436 Equity financing -40 0 0 0 Lend from bank 0 0 0 0 Others -83 0 0 0 Cash flow from financing -123 0 0 0 Foreign exchange gain (loss) -2 -2 -2 -2 Net changes in cash -411 164 28 157 Source: Company data, CICC Research

Company description

Sohu, incorporated in 1995, is a -based internet company engaged in several business activities through different subsidiaries: online portal business via Sohu.com, online games via Changyou (CYOU.US), video business via Sohu Video, the real estate vertical via Focus.cn and online search via Sogou. Sohu was listed on Nasdaq in July 2000.

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2 CICC Research: January 26, 2016

Figure 1: Some hit shows of Sohu Video during 4Q15 Show name - Eng Show name - CN Genre Launch Date Remarks Dream Team 中韩梦之队 Reality show 9.19 As of Jan 25, 2016, total play on Sohu Video reached 69.68mn, ranked No. among all video platforms Diors Woman S04 极品女士第四季 In-house developed 10.14 As the end of Nov-2015, total play of S01/02/03 online comedy reached 1bn times Love me, if you dare 他来了,请闭眼 In-house developed 10.15 Audience rating reached 0.675% for the first series drama episode, ranked No.1 among all the TV show s during the same period of time Qin's Moon 秦时明月 Ancient costume 11.29 As of Jan 25, 2016, total play on Sohu Video series reached 370mn, ranked No. among all video platforms GPGDL 高品格单恋 In-house developed 11.13 Total play surpassed 12mn in 3 days Korean drama YXSS 夜行书生 Imported Korean 12.01 Exclusive broadcasting, as of Jan 25, 2016, total drama play reached 86.11mn Source: Open information, Company Data, CICC Research

Figure 2: Quarterly Financials Income Statement (US$ mn) 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15E 4Q15E 2015E 2016E Gross Revenue 1,400.3 365.3 400.2 430.4 477.2 1,673.1 455.3 493.6 522.1 448.4 1,869.2 1,924.0 Advertising 627.5 175.4 218.5 247.3 257.9 899.0 238.9 286.1 299.5 305.0 1,129.5 1,355.2 Brand advertising 428.5 111.1 133.4 148.8 147.8 541.2 133.8 150.8 151.5 143.0 579.2 581.0 Sponsored search 199.0 64.3 85.1 98.4 110.0 357.8 105.1 135.2 147.9 162.0 550.3 774.3 Non-advertising 772.8 189.9 181.7 183.2 219.3 774.1 216.4 207.5 222.6 143.4 739.7 568.8 Online game 669.1 163.4 153.9 150.3 184.4 652.0 185.0 172.4 152.5 126.5 631.2 465.7 Wireless and others 53.6 - 16.0 7.7 15.0 47.0 10.0 12.3 14.4 14.0 41.0 39.0 Cost of Revenue (480.1) (138.5) (169.9) (181.7) (195.6) (685.6) (222.2) (221.2) (214.2) (191.0) (843.4) (802.4) Gross profit 920.2 226.8 230.3 248.8 281.6 987.4 233.2 272.4 307.9 257.4 1,025.8 1,121.6

Product Development (276.1) (117.7) (102.2) (108.0) (81.4) (409.3) (102.2) (100.8) (92.8) (98.7) (394.4) (409.4) Sales and Marketing (351.6) (142.4) (136.6) (131.7) (115.8) (526.5) (83.1) (104.0) (98.6) (98.7) (384.4) (406.6) General and Administrative (109.0) (35.4) (53.2) (49.7) (66.0) (204.3) (45.2) (49.7) (33.3) (35.9) (164.1) (142.4) Income (loss) from operations 183.5 (68.6) (61.8) (40.7) (33.9) (205.0) 2.7 17.9 42.9 24.3 42.6 163.2

Other Income/(Expense) 12.7 3.8 0.7 0.9 4.6 10.0 3.2 (0.4) 70.2 2.0 74.9 12.0 Interest Income and exchange difference 27.8 8.5 8.8 7.5 6.3 31.0 6.0 6.2 5.2 5.0 22.5 25.8 Profit before income tax 224.0 (55.8) (52.3) (32.9) (24.1) (165.2) 11.7 23.0 122.6 31.3 140.0 201.0

Income tax expense (50.4) (0.2) 1.7 1.0 (8.6) (6.1) (16.3) (11.5) (29.5) (12.6) (69.9) (50.7) No controlling Interest 182.3 22.8 (9.4) (4.8) (13.2) (4.6) 26.5 38.7 42.1 40.0 147.3 184.2 Net income (loss) (8.7) (78.9) (41.1) (27.1) (19.6) (166.7) (31.1) (27.2) 39.1 (21.3) (40.6) (32.1) Fully diluted Shares (mn) 38.6 38.4 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.6 38.6 Fully diluted EPS(Rmb) (0.6) (7.8) (5.5) (3.8) (2.2) (18.5) (4.1) (2.3) 7.9 (1.6) (0.1) (0.5) Fully diluted EPS(US$) (0.30) (2.05) (1.07) (0.74) (0.51) (4.33) (0.81) (0.71) 1.00 (0.55) (1.07) (0.83) Non GAAP fully diluted EPS(US$) (0.10) (1.26) (0.88) (0.61) (0.35) (2.98) (0.66) (0.37) 1.27 (0.26) (0.02) (0.09) Source: Company Data, CICC Research

Figure 3: Earnings Revision Income Statement (US$ mn) 4Q14E 2015E 4Q14E 2015E 4Q14E 2015E Revenues 451 1872 448 1869 -0.5% -0.1% Brand advertising 148 584 143 579 -3.4% -0.9% Sponsored search 154 542 162 550 5.2% 1.5% Online game 127 637 126 631 -0.2% -0.8% Cost of revenues (198) (856) (191) (843) -3.6% -1.4% Gross profit 253 1016 257 1026 1.9% 1.0% Net profit (19) (38) (21) (41) n.a. 6.4% Non-GAAP net profit (8) 2 (10) (1) n.a. n.a. Source: Company Data, CICC Research

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 3 CICC Research: January 26, 2016

Figure 4: Comparable Valuation Stock Reporting Share Price Market Cap Non GAAP P/E GAAP P/E P/E excluding net cash P/S Company Rating Currency Currency (2016-01-25) (US$ mn) 14A 15E 16E 14A 15E 16E 14A 15E 16E 14A 15E 16E China Internet Conglomerate Tencent HKD RMB 144.30 174,869 BUY 45.0 34.7 26.7 45.4 36.7 28.1 43.8 32.8 24.1 13.8 10.8 8.3 USD RMB 171.17 59,161 BUY 26.2 30.0 23.7 28.4 33.1 25.7 25.3 28.2 21.4 7.5 5.5 4.4 Alibaba USD RMB 70.37 174,229 HOLD n.a 32.2 25.9 46.6 43.9 15.8 n.a 29.4 23.2 14.2 14.2 10.9 58.com USD USD 56.42 7,855 BUY 284.9 n.a n.a 499.3 n.a n.a 266.3 n.a n.a 30.0 11.1 6.3 Sina USD USD 45.50 3,165 BUY 61.3 51.9 32.2 18.4 148.2 72.2 37.6 31.3 19.3 4.1 3.7 3.2 Sohu USD USD 51.38 1,985 BUY n.a n.a 78.3 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 32.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 NetEase USD RMB 153.50 20,066 BUY 25.3 17.5 14.3 26.2 19.6 16.3 20.6 13.3 10.1 10.6 5.6 3.9 Qihoo USD USD 71.64 9,238 HOLD 29.7 21.7 16.0 46.6 26.5 18.9 29.6 20.7 14.3 6.6 4.8 3.5 E-Commerce Dangdang USD RMB 6.82 551 HOLD 33.2 n.a n.a 248.3 n.a n.a 22.6 n.a n.a 0.4 0.3 0.3 VIP shop USD USD 13.83 8,044 BUY 45.0 26.3 19.6 29.0 33.4 22.9 40.9 23.3 18.0 2.1 1.4 1.0 JD.com USD RMB 27.27 37,726 BUY 3136.1 n.a 244.5 n.a n.a n.a 3072.8 n.a 224.3 2.0 1.3 0.9 Jumei.com USD USD 6.60 945 12.0 33.8 16.8 12.9 40.2 19.8 4.5 21.5 9.1 1.4 0.8 0.6 Online Travel Qunar USD RMB 43.09 5,709 BUY n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 20.2 8.6 4.9 Ctrip USD RMB 42.93 17,457 BUY 390.3 199.7 349.8 153.9 222.0 620.8 380.3 199.7 349.8 14.8 10.3 6.9 Tuniu USD RMB 13.19 1,292 BUY n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 2.3 1.0 0.6 Online Game Changyou USD USD 18.38 970 HOLD 1670.9 4.7 6.8 n.a 4.8 7.4 848.0 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 Taomee USD USD 3.55 134 HOLD 177.5 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 27.3 n.a 0.7 3.3 3.8 3.9 Poly Bona USD USD 13.27 860 BUY 65.4 41.5 28.5 134.4 78.1 66.4 67.9 41.5 28.5 3.4 2.7 1.9 YY USD RMB 59.34 419 BUY 20.0 18.2 14.1 22.2 n.a n.a 15.2 13.0 9.0 5.5 3.7 2.7 Tian Ge HKD RMB 3.88 643 14.8 15.9 13.9 n.a 20.0 18.0 8.4 13.6 11.1 5.7 5.8 5.5 Net Dragon HKD RMB 18.60 1,193 27.4 302.9 50.9 26.5 329.8 50.9 n.a n.a n.a 7.9 6.3 4.4 Forgame HKD RMB 12.62 227 n.a n.a 28.9 n.a n.a 35.6 n.a n.a 4.2 2.1 2.0 1.5 IGG HKD USD 3.48 617 HOLD 8.6 10.2 8.0 9.7 13.6 10.2 6.1 6.2 4.4 3.0 2.7 2.4 Boyaa HKD RMB 2.63 259 HOLD 5.1 6.6 5.3 5.5 6.6 5.5 0.7 n.a n.a 1.7 1.7 1.5 Ourgame HKD RMB 4.50 456 BUY 16.4 17.1 11.7 28.9 19.2 12.8 11.9 10.1 6.8 6.0 3.8 2.7 Video Youku USD RMB 27.22 5,333 HOLD n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 8.2 5.3 3.8 Vertical portal Phoenix New Media USD RMB 4.71 334 BUY 7.3 22.6 12.6 8.6 41.7 15.7 2.6 6.9 3.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 500.com USD USD 19.23 806 16.2 n.a 74.0 25.0 n.a n.a 14.2 n.a n.a 8.6 52.0 16.4 Soufun USD USD 6.03 2,605 11.0 n.a n.a 12.1 670.0 n.a 10.0 n.a n.a 3.8 3.0 2.1 BitAuto USD RMB 19.89 1,259 11.0 23.8 11.1 10.7 n.a n.a 9.3 7.9 10.4 3.5 1.9 1.5 Autohome USD USD 26.88 2,973 26.0 20.0 16.9 27.9 21.5 17.8 23.5 17.3 n.a 9.2 5.8 4.4 51job USD USD 26.49 1,556 2.6 2.4 2.4 3.5 17.7 2.8 0.3 0.4 2.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 Jiayuan USD RMB 7.25 241 HOLD 5.5 3.8 2.2 38.6 6.0 2.5 21.1 14.3 8.4 2.5 2.1 2.0 Source: Source: Bloomberg, Company Data, CICC Research; Note: CICC covered companies are highlighted in green, while non-covered companies are highlighted in white; all financials based on Bloomberg Consensus.

Figure 5: P/E Band Figure 6: P/B Band

Source: Bloomberg, Company Data, CICC Research Source: Bloomberg, Company Data, CICC Research

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 4 CICC Research

Important legal disclosures

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Nanjing Hanzhong Road Branch Guangzhou Tianhe Road Branch Chengdu Binjiang Road (East) Branch Section C, 30th Floor, Asia Pacific Tower 40th Floor, Teemtower 1st & 16th Floors, Shangri-La Center 2 Hanzhong Road, Gulou District 208 Tianhe Road Block 9B, Binjiang Road (East) Nanjing 210005, P.R. China Guangzhou 510620, P.R. China Chengdu 610021, P.R. China Tel: (86-25) 8316-8988 Tel: (86-20) 8396-3968 Tel: (86-28) 8612-8188 Fax: (86-25) 8316-8397 Fax: (86-20) 8516-8198 Fax: (86-28) 8444-7010

Xiamen Lianyue Road Branch Zhongnan Road Branch Qingdao Middle Hongkong Road Branch 4th Floor, Office Building, Paragon Center 4301-B, Poly Plaza 11th Floor, Shangri-La Center 1 Lianyue Road, Siming District 99 Zhongnan Road, Wuchang District Block 9, Hongkong Road (M), South District Xiamen 361012, P.R. China Wuhan 430070, P.R. China Qingdao 266071, P.R. China Tel: (86-592) 515-7000 Tel: (86-27) 8334-3099 Tel: (86-532) 6670-6789 Fax: (86-592) 511-5527 Fax: (86-27) 8359-0535 Fax: (86-532) 6887-7018

Chongqing Honghu Road (West) Branch Tianjin Nanjing Road Branch Dalian Gangxing Road Branch 1st & 10th Floors, Ourui Lanjue Center 10th Floor, Tianjin Global Trading Center 16th Floor, Wanda Center Block 9, Honghu Road (W), New North District 219 Nanjing Road, Heping District 6 Gangxing Road, Zhongshan District Chongqing 401120, P.R. China Tianjin 300051, P.R. China Dalian 116001, P.R. China Tel: (86-23) 6307-7088 Tel: (86-22) 2317-6188 Tel: (86-411) 8237-2388 Fax: (86-23) 6739-6636 Fax: (86-22) 2321-5079 Fax: (86-411) 8814-2933

Foshan Jihua 5th Road Branch Yunfu Xinxing Dongdi North Road Branch Changsha Chezhan Road (North) Branch 12th Floor, Trend International Business Building 2nd Floor, Service Building C1, Wens Science & 3rd Floor, Annex Building, Securities Tower 2 Jihua 5th Road, Chancheng District Technology Garden, Dongdi North Road 459 Chezhan Road (North), Furong District Foshan 528000, P.R. China Xincheng Town, Xinxing County Changsha 410001, P.R. China Tel: (86-757) 8290-3588 Yunfu 527499, P.R. China Tel: (86-731) 8878-7088 Fax: (86-757) 8303-6299 Tel: (86-766) 2985-088 Fax: (86-731) 8446-2455 Fax: (86-766) 2985-018

Ningbo Yangfan Road Branch Fuzhou Wusi Road Branch 11th Floor, Building Five, 999 Yangfan Road 38th Floor, Henglicheng Office Building Hi-tech Industrial Development Zone No.128 Wusi Road, Gulou District Ningbo 315103, P.R. China Fuzhou 350001, P.R. China Tel: (86-574) 8907-7288 Tel: (86-591) 8625 3088 Fax: (86-574) 8907-7328 Fax: (86-591) 8625 3050