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Planning Study 19 JUNE 2012 Louisiana PLANNING STUDY PLANNING STUDY SUMMARY REPORT GALLAGHER & ASSOCIATES BAXSTARR CONSULTING GROUP ESKEW+DUMEZ+RIPPLE / MANNING ARCHITECTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction, Report Conclusions and Summary, pg. 1 Task 2 | New Orleans Regional and State Trade Area Characteristics, pg. 6 Task 3 | Overview of New Orleans Area Museums, Attractions and Environments, pg. 12 Task 5 | Market Analysis, pg. 26 Tasks 4 and 7 | Comparable Interpretive Institutions and Museums Case Studies, pg. 32 Tasks 8 and 9 | Site Selection, Complimentary Facility Uses and Building Amenities, pg. 73 Appendix GALLAGHER & ASSOCIATES | BAXSTARR CONSULTING | ESKEW+DUMEZ+RIPPLE/MANNING ARCHITECTS, A JOINT VENTURE REPORT CONCLUSIONS AND SUMMARY INTRODUCTION The team we assembled for the Louisiana Civil Rights Museum Planning Study has collaborated over the past six months to provide museum planning services, marketplace analysis, strategic planning, and architectural planning services. As the project lead, Gallagher & Associates has worked closely with Eskew+Dumez+Ripple and Manning Architects, a Joint Venture and the BaxStarr Consulting Group to research and compile the following report. REPORT CONCLUSIONS AND SUMMARY PRELIMINARY FINDINGS AND SUMMARIES RELATED TO MARKET CONDITIONS In Tasks 2 through 5, as outlined in the contract for the Louisiana Civil Rights Museum Planning Study, we prepared a market feasibility study to forecast the likely attendance reflecting various levels that would be expected for differing locations, realistic per capita ticket pricing, other revenue, and events activity and income for the proposed Louisiana Civil Rights Museum. Task 8 and 9 evaluate the optional sites from a physical perspective, but no site has been selected. Our forecasts show a range for the base attendance that could occur, assuming a venue that is well-designed, well-programmed, and optimally located to capitalize on the New Orleans and State tourism (and resident) markets. We have also made estimates as to how the attendance would change at the different locations. Key Findings From the perspective of the local demographics and the New Orleans economy, a portion of visitation to the Louisiana Civil Rights Museum will be from local/regional residents. This area has consistently been losing population and the city has not totally recovered from the Katrina outmigration. The upside of the local area is that the New Orleans economy is beginning to grow and diversify and the Bio-Medical Initiative is expected to bring a significant increment of jobs in higher-paying job groups. Furthermore, there are concerted efforts to grow existing and new industries to bring jobs and investment to the metropolitan area. New Orleans’ tourism is recovering well in spite of the down economy in the nearly seven years since Hurricane Katrina. In 2011, the total tourism count was at about 8.3 million, up 9.8% over the previous year. Overnight visitation grew 13.9% during the same period. Spending by overnight visitors is estimated at $5.3 billion, up 23% between 2009 and 2010. Visitors come to New Orleans for a variety of reasons: leisure (78%), convention and meetings (12%) and general business (10%.) Each of these groups offers the potential to generate visitors for the Louisiana Civil Rights Museum. The market analysis was based heavily on the character and dynamics of the New Orleans and Statewide tourism marketplace, the attendance and revenues at local attractions and museums venues, and the performance at similar civil rights attractions around the country. Based on these inputs, we concluded that half of the visitors to the proposed museum will be African American, a national group that is growing in its spending power affluence. The Louisiana Department of Culture, Recreation and Tourism sponsored a tourism study of the state by TravelsAmerica. The 2011 study showed that 16% of state visitors are African American and that 19% of those to New Orleans are African Americans. Average household income of these visitors is $52,600, higher than that of the United States household average. This market segment is GALLAGHER & ASSOCIATES | BAXSTARR CONSULTING | ESKEW+DUMEZ+RIPPLE/MANNING ARCHITECTS, A JOINT VENTURE | 1 now estimated to spend $40 billion annually on travel. Travelers report their travels involve history and culture: 32% and trips with children: 32%. Both are favorable for the Louisiana Civil Rights Museum. (The African American segment of the market is actively involved in events and entertainment, and the Essence Festival, which targets the African American audience, brings approximately 400,000 in attendance each July.) Existing venues in New Orleans offer an indication of how a planned museum could perform. While not all of these are museum venues, they are attractions that compete for the time and spending on cultural and educational activities in the region. The Audubon Nature Institute has three attractions (the Zoo, the Aquarium, and the IMAX Theater that could be better classified as edu-tainment and the attendance is solid for each. The key museums had estimated attendance as follows: Museum Attendance (rounded) Cabildo 26,000 Presbytere 55,000 Southern Food and Beverage Museum 35,000 New Orleans African American Museum 20,000 National World War II Museum 374,000 The Historic New Orleans Collection 35,000 New Orleans Museum of Art 150,000 The Insectarium 193,000 The Louisiana Civil Rights Museum will have similarities to those museums that are oriented to history and culture. Based on the market performance of other museums around the country that relates to type and content, it is our forecast that this museum will have visitation greater than the Presbytere and less than the New Orleans Museum of Art. Visitation at comparative museums around the country shows a wide annual attendance range: The Birmingham Civil Rights Institute at 145,000; the International Civil Rights Museum at 78,000; the Museum of Tolerance at 250,000 (or less), and the National Civil Rights Museum at 186,000. There are several additional comparable museums either planned or beginning construction: the National Center for Civil and Human Rights in Atlanta, Georgia; the National Museum of African American History and Culture in Washington, D.C.; and the Civil Rights Museum of Jackson, Mississippi. If all are developed, there will be similar museums in several of the surrounding states in the South. Conclusion: Attendance and Revenues • Given relevant local museum parameters as well as those of the United States comparisons, the base attendance is likely to be around 100,000 with some of the attendance from the Essence Festival attendees. Museum members should generate another 20,000 to 30,000 in attendance and revenue, for a total of about 125,000. • Local pricing shows the average (or per capita) ticket revenue in the range of $5.50 to $6.50. Our estimate is that after accounting for some free admissions and low-ticket or GALLAGHER & ASSOCIATES | BAXSTARR CONSULTING | ESKEW+DUMEZ+RIPPLE/MANNING ARCHITECTS, A JOINT VENTURE | 2 free-ticket charges for students/children that that per capita at the Louisiana Civil Rights Museum will be in the range of $6.00 to $6.50. • Potential retail sales are expected to be about $2.50 to $3.00 per capita, and if there is a café with a kitchen in the venue, it would generate about the same in food sales. • The events and functions market in New Orleans is strong, given the large convention and social marketplace. We estimate the museum could rent 40 to 50 events annually, with about $2,000 in revenue per event. (This assumes a variety of spaces will be included from a boardroom to availability of the full museum.) The location of the museum will affect attendance in that public transit, surrounding visitor activity, security, visibility, etc. impact attendance. The 125,000 attendance would be at an optimal location in or near the French Quarter, Warehouse District or CBD. There are several proposed sites that should be able to capture the full attendance levels: Woolworth, 234 Loyola, the Sanlin Building, and the LA Artworks which are all in the midst of the core tourist activities and are accessible by foot or public transportation. The McDonough No. 11 School and the Old Liberty Bank while just off I-10 are in less travelled areas and are not very accessible. We would forecast visitation to diminish in the range of 20% to 30% at these locations. The last two sites – St. Mary of Angels School and Louis Armstrong No. 19 are far from the core visitor activities, have difficult access and are in areas perceived to have safety issues and would experience a diminished visitation by 30% to 40% or more. These estimates can be applied to the 120,000 to 130,000 range to provide estimates of likely visitation at the various sites. The final decisions for the museum need to overlay the market, site and facility strengths and weaknesses of each of the options. COMPARABLE INTERPRETIVE INSTITUTIONS AND MUSEUM CASE STUDIES The following is a summary of comparable institutions and museums to aide in creating the vision for the Louisiana Civil Rights Museum. In compiling this report, Gallagher & Associates researched civil rights institutions, as well as other organizations that tell stories related to civil rights issues through a different lens such as sports or music. The following areas were researched: • Mission and content • Interpretive approaches and multimedia applications Louisiana Civil Rights Museum Goals The following goals have been identified in meetings and subsequent conversations as goals for the Louisiana Civil Rights Museum: • Promote healing • Incorporate the story of New Orleans cultural diversity • Create a place for ongoing dialogue • Statewide connection GALLAGHER & ASSOCIATES | BAXSTARR CONSULTING | ESKEW+DUMEZ+RIPPLE/MANNING ARCHITECTS, A JOINT VENTURE | 3 • Educational programs • Attractive, multi-purpose rental facilities Conclusion The museums being created today are dynamic, interactive and engaging environments that transport their visitors through place and time.
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