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Malcolm Harvey

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Malcolm Harvey UNIVERSITY OF STIRLING School of Arts and Humanities Division of History and Politics Conversing with the nation: Consultations and referendums in Scotland and Wales under devolution Malcolm Harvey Submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy November 2014 Abstract The creation of devolved institutions in Scotland and Wales in 1999 provided nationalist parties in both the opportunity to act within an institution solely within their nation’s territorial boundaries. In 2007, they entered government for the first time. In so doing, the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru embarked upon public engagement strategies in office which were designed to build support for their constitutional ambitions – namely, independence for Scotland and (in the short-term) full legislative powers for the National Assembly for Wales, as outlined in the Government of Wales Act 2006. This thesis explores the public engagement strategy of both parties, focusing on the respective consultations of the parties in government – A National Conversation and the All Wales Convention – and the following campaign for (in Scotland) and at (in Wales) a referendum intended to deliver their preferred outcome. The aim of this thesis is to consider why public engagement strategies were considered the best vehicle to take forward the respective parties’ constitutional goals and to evaluate the success each party achieved in relation to these objectives. This thesis argues that, while both the SNP and Plaid Cymru have achieved some success with regard to their constitutional objectives, this success can be measured differently depending whether short-term or long-term goals are the defining standard. In Wales, Plaid Cymru’s constitutional consultation found limited engagement with the wider Welsh population, and though the referendum succeeded in securing legislative powers for the National Assembly for Wales, public engagement with the constitutional debate in Wales continues to lack enthusiasm. By contrast, the SNP’s National Conversation saw more enthusiastic engagement, but without a referendum at the end of the process, a clear lack of a tangible short-term outcome. However, the SNP in government did succeed in moving the constitutional debate firmly onto the political agenda, and engagement in this debate is now widespread in Scottish society, particularly in the wake of an agreement to hold an independence referendum in autumn 2014. Acknowledgements Researching and writing a project of this magnitude has taken over my life for the past four years. Fortunately for me, I have some of the most understanding family, friends and colleagues I could ask for, and I will forever be in their debt for their assistance, large or small, over this period. Four people, in particular, I owe a massive debt of gratitude to, a debt that I doubt I shall ever be able to repay in full. To my supervisor, Peter Lynch, for keeping me on the right track, for reading my work and making suggestions to change the more outlandish ideas, and for the welcome break from work our rugby expeditions delivered – thank you. Never underestimate just how much help a quick chat or a word of encouragement now and again can be for your future PhD candidates – it was invaluable to me! To my Mum and Dad, this project simply would not have happened without you. Thank you for funding my studies, and for feeding my thirst for knowledge when I was a wee boy. Words can’t express my gratitude for the love and faith in my ability you have shown me. And to my wife Fiona, you could not have been more supportive, understanding or encouraging throughout this process. I hope I can be as good a husband to you and a father to our future children as you have been a wife to me while I have completed i this PhD. Thanks for everything – I very simply love you, and could not have done it without you. Thanks also to my parents’-in-law Sandy and Shona for their understanding (or patience – I promise I’ll get a job now!); to my Gran (for reading practically everything I’ve ever written at university); to those who agreed to be interviewed for this thesis; to the universities of Stirling and Strathclyde for employing me as a teaching assistant (a lifeline to an unfunded PhD candidate); to the Electoral Reform Society (who employed me as an intern and let me research some really fun stuff); to the Herald Scotland team, and to James and Jeff (for blogging opportunities); and to the postgraduate students at Strathclyde (Alan, Andy, Craig and Rosie) who made my time there fun, and at Stirling (Anne, Cat, Karin, Kate, Kirsty, Rachel, Mark and particularly Emily, who I hope can see a light at the end of her tunnel). To everyone above, and everyone I’ve forgotten. I hope the following 78,802 words don’t disappoint you. MH November 2012 ii Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... i Contents .......................................................................................................................... iii List of Figures ................................................................................................................... iv Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Nationalist parties and public engagement ................................................. 17 Chapter 2: Devolution: a process, not an event ............................................................. 63 Chapter 3: The SNP and Plaid Cymru: Nationalist Parties in Regional Government .... 101 Chapter 4: A National Conversation ............................................................................. 136 Chapter 5: The All Wales Convention ........................................................................... 183 Chapter 6: Constitutional Referendums in the UK ....................................................... 220 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 266 Appendix 1: Scottish Interviewees .............................................................................. 291 Appendix 2: Welsh Interviewees ................................................................................. 293 Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 295 iii List of Figures Figure 1.1: The Pedersen/ Deschouwer Party Lifespan Model .......................................... 28 Figure 1.2: Party Motivations Model .................................................................................. 30 Figure 1.3: The Coalition Political Life Cycle ....................................................................... 37 Table 1.1: Referendums in the United Kingdom (1973-2011) ............................................ 55 Table 2.1: Scotland Devolution Opinion Polls (1979) ......................................................... 68 Table 2.2: Scotland Devolution Referendum Result (1979) ............................................... 69 Table 2.3: Scotland Devolution Opinion Polls (1997) ......................................................... 78 Table 2.4: Scotland Devolution Referendum Result (1997) ............................................... 80 Table 2.5: Wales Devolution Opinion Polls (1967-8) .......................................................... 83 Table 2.6: Wales Devolution Opinion Polls (1975-9) .......................................................... 85 Table 2.7: Wales Devolution Referendum Result (1979) ................................................... 87 Box 2.1: Campaign for a Welsh Assembly – Original Members .......................................... 89 Table 2.8: Wales Devolution Opinion Polls (1996-7) .......................................................... 95 Table 2.9: Wales Devolution Referendum Result (1997) ................................................... 96 Table 3.1: SNP General Election Results (1929-1964) ...................................................... 104 Table 3.2: SNP General Election Results (1966-1974) ...................................................... 106 Table 3.3: SNP General Election Results (1979-1997) ...................................................... 111 Table 3.4: SNP General Election Results (2001-2010) ...................................................... 112 Table 3.5: Scottish Parliament Election Results (1999-2007) ........................................... 114 Table 3.6: Plaid Cymru General Election Results (1929-1945) ......................................... 120 Table 3.7: Plaid Cymru General Election Results (1950-1966) ......................................... 123 Table 3.8: Plaid Cymru General Election Results (1970-1979) ......................................... 125 Table 3.9: Welsh Speakers (1901-1991) ........................................................................... 127 Table 3.10: Plaid Cymru General Election Results (1983-1997) ....................................... 129 Table 3.11: Plaid Cymru Election Results (1999-2010) ..................................................... 131 Box 4.1: Stages of Policy Analysis ..................................................................................... 143 Box 4.2: First Minister Speeches at National Conversation events .................................. 152 Box 4.3: Scottish Government National Conversation Publications ................................
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