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Shaping the Futures of Nuclear, What's Next for Legacy And navigating complexity March 2017 2016 MasteringShaping the the future ofTransformation nuclear power Journey AWhat's comprehensive next for legacy guide and to reinventingemerging companies nuclear players? 2 Think:Act Shaping the future of nuclear power THE BIG 3 63 The number of nuclear reactors currently under construction. Page 4 70 GW The capacity of nuclear power contracted since Fukushima. Page 4 29 tCO 2eq Lifecycle GHG emissions from nuclear power per GWH, three times less than solar PV. Page 6 Think:Act 3 Shaping the future of nuclear power Nuclear power can help meet the growing energy demand. CHALLENGE AHEAD chased overseas, represents only around 5% of the cost Growth is on the horizon. Global electricity demand of nuclear energy. It is easy to store and is mined in will jump from today's 22 thousand TWh to 34 thou- many places, with Kazakhstan, Australia and Canada sand TWh by 2040, fueled by economic growth and im- today's top suppliers. proved electricity access in emerging countries, offset- Nuclear power has established itself as a cheap en- ting by far all energy savings initiatives. ergy source, with a median cost of 83 USD/MWh in Emerging countries are faced with a new challenge: 2015 (levelized cost of energy, or LCOE, which includes getting electrical power to the 1.3 billion people cur- all plant-level costs: investments, fuel, emissions, oper- rently left behind. One could draw parallels here to the ation and maintenance, dismantling, future waste 60s and 70s when mass electrification of daily life (e.g. management costs, etc.). This puts nuclear power ovens, refrigerators, appliances) and rising standards among the lowest -cost power generation technologies of living (e.g. electric heating, HVAC) led to a substan- available in the market. Nuclear is also one of the tech- tial increase in electricity demand in OECD countries. nologies with the lowest contribution to pollution and They tackled the issue through the rapid development climate change. Finally, compared to other low-emis- of large-scale fossil fuel power plants and the massive sions solutions, nuclear power is a high density energy roll-out of nuclear programs. Electricity output in- and nuclear plants require limited land area. B creased by over 50%, from 3.2 thousand TWh in 1971 to 4.8 thousand TWh in 1980. A NUCLEAR RISKS Today, however, the massive deployment of fossil Nuclear power also presents clear drawbacks. The safe- fuel solutions is no longer feasible. The global commu- ty risk posed by nuclear power generation is inherent nity has agreed to jointly address human-caused cli- to the technology, and cannot be fully mitigated de- mate change, and new solutions must be low carbon. spite safety mechanisms and measures put in place by While nuclear power remains a controversial option, it manufacturers and operators. Nuclear plants also pro- is worth exploring its benefits and risks. duce long-lasting and highly radioactive waste that places a burden on future generations. Additionally NUCLEAR BENEFITS worrisome is that nuclear technology may be misap- Nuclear power plants are reliable electricity generators. propriated by rogue actors or leveraged for military Indeed, they can generate electricity continuously programs, leading to nuclear terrorism or prolifera- throughout the day and the seasons and have load fac- tion. Yet another worry: Nuclear power relies on a tors in excess of 80%. It also does not depend on vola- non-renewable fuel available in limited supply. In the tile oil or gas supplies. Uranium, which is usually pur- high nuclear scenario laid out by the IAEA in its World 4 Think:Act Shaping the future of nuclear power A GROWTH ON THE HORIZON Forecast of electricity demand in non-OECD countries compared to past OECD demand. TWh (base 100) 300 OECD 1990 Electricity demand 250 200 2040 Non-OECD 150 Electricity demand forecast 1970 100 2010 50 0 Years Source: IEA Energy Outlook, the industry may face a shortage of THE NEW STATUS QUO uranium supply as early as 2025. Finally, the high Two recent developments have changed the nuclear CAPEX required to build a nuclear plant (at least sever- status quo in significant ways: the Fukushima disaster al hundreds of millions of dollars to build the smallest and the COP 21 Agreement. The events at Fukushima reactors and around 5 billion for a full-size reactor) are have made obvious to the public that the rate of inci- an obstacle for many countries. dents at nuclear power plants is higher than what nu- In summary, nuclear has been a controversial tech- clear proponents expected. It questions the future of nology from the start and will likely continue to be nuclear energy on the global scale. The nuclear indus- challenged by its detractors. Nonetheless, it has been try is facing this by reevaluating risks, upgrading safety part of the global electricity landscape for over half a in existing plants, enhancing industry governance, and century. It managed to grow more rapidly than any oth- calling for further innovation. It will certainly take er means of generating electricity, going from almost time and security breakthroughs to fully restore public zero to 300 GW of capacity in its first three decades. confidence. On the other hand, widespread recogni- Today, 30 countries are operating 444 nuclear reactors tion of human-driven global warming has spurred to generate electricity, 63 new nuclear plants are under greater focus on CO2 emissions reduction, favoring nu- construction in 15 countries, and 70 GW of capacity clear technology while also supporting growth of re- have been contracted since Fukushima. Altogether, the newable solutions. value proposition of nuclear power still holds today: providing cheap, reliable, carbon-free electricity in large quantities with a risk profile lowered by strong safety precautions. Think:Act 5 Shaping the future of nuclear power B LCOE AND SHARE IN GENERATION MIX IN EUROPE The global community has agreed to address climate change. Massive deployment of fossil fuel solutions to meet the energy demand is no longer a sustainable option. Share in generation mix [%] 30% 30 110 NUCLEAR 20 60 25% Coal 40 60 Gas 15% 40 70 Hydro 10% 40 70 Onshore wind 90 130 Biomass 5% 70 130 Solar photovoltaic Concentrated solar power 100 Offshore wind 180 190 300 0% 0 50 100 150 200 300 LCoE [EUR/MHh 1] Average of competitive technologies 1 2015, Europe, including grid connection Source: IEA; Roland Berger 6 Think:Act Shaping the future of nuclear power A seriously low carbon world needs nuclear energy. RISING EMISSIONS have to grow by 2.9% a year until 2030 in order to keep The goal to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has the door to the 2°C goal open. united the global community. In an effort to protect us Nuclear power is one of the most climate-benign ways from the consequences of global warming, 182 coun- of producing electricity. The lifecycle GHG emissions tries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol since 1998. The of nuclear power plants are among the lowest: Protocol, however, does not require emerging coun- 29 tCO2eq/GWh, on par with wind or hydro, 3 times low- tries to reduce emissions, and the United States even- er than solar photovoltaic (PV), and considerably lower tually decided not to ratify it. This has significantly than fossil-fueled electricity generation. Recognizing limited its impact. Indeed, energy-related GHG emis- this, the United States, China and India have already sions were 33.5 gigatons worldwide in 2015, up 56% pledged to use nuclear power to meet their emissions from the 1990 level of 21.5 gigatons. reduction goals. C Continuing on the current GHG emissions trajec- tory is likely to result in an increase in average global COMPETING WITH RENEWABLES ON COSTS surface temperature of more than 4°C by 2050 com- Wind and solar PV technologies have matured enough pared to pre-industrial levels, which would force hun- to challenge nuclear power as cheap sources of low-car- dreds of millions out of their homes due to a rise in bon electricity. Nuclear power costs are going up due to sea levels. Governments worldwide have recognized more complex generation III reactors and the CAPEX what is at stake here, and have been working together required to upgrade existing plants post Fukushima or towards a solution. Their efforts crystallized during extend their operating life. Meanwhile, costs for renew- the 2015 COP 21 in the Paris Agreement, which aims able energies are on a downward trend, led by stan- to limit the increase in temperatures to 2°C or less dardization and growing competition in these indus- through GHG emissions reduction. The Paris Agree- tries. Since 2009, solar module costs have fallen 90% ment has been ratified by 113 countries worldwide, and onshore wind LCOE has fallen 50%. Every year, a including the biggest emitters like the United States new record is set: a 24.2 USD/MWh solar PV project in and China. Abu Dhabi was submitted in September 2016, a 30 USD/MWh onshore wind farm in Morocco was award- CLIMATE-BENIGN NUCLEAR POWER ed in March 2016 for commissioning in 2018. However, following the Paris Agreement, the pledged And this is only the technological side of it. Compe- national reductions are insufficient to prevent a 2°C tition is further accelerated by a global shift of the mer- rise. To achieve further reductions, nuclear power gen- it order curve to the right. Renewables have a near-zero eration should be considered. The IEA "bridge scenar- marginal cost and often benefit from favorable legisla- io" estimates that worldwide nuclear production will tion on priority dispatch, meaning that they are called Think:Act 7 Shaping the future of nuclear power C NUCLEAR PLANTS ARE ONE OF THE MOST CLIMATE-BENIGN WAYS TO GENERATE ELECTRICITY Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions [tCO2eq/GWh] 1,400 1,200 1,054 1,000 888 800 733 600 499 400 200 85 45 0 29 26 26 Lignite Coal Oil Natural Gas Solar PV Biomass Nuclear Hydroelectric Wind Average emissions intensity Range between studies Source: IPCC (2014) via NEA first in the merit order.
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