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A Global Outlook on LGBTI Social Exclusion Through 2030

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A Global Outlook on LGBTI Social Exclusion Through 2030 A Global Outlook on LGBTI Social Exclusion through 2030 Image by Sergey Neamoscou 1 Contents Acknowledgements 3 Key findings 4 Executive summary 5 Purpose and methodology 6 Key terms 7 Social exclusion 8 Estimates of the global LGBTI population 10 Heavy trends in LGBTI social exclusion 11 Critcal uncertainties in LGBTI social exclusion 14 Scenarios 20 Slow going 21 Progress and persecution 22 Hollow victories 23 Institutions as leaders 24 Conclusion 25 Annex: Scenario analysis methods 26 References 32 2 Acknowledgments We would like to thank the following experts for their The majority of the photos used in this report have been taken by contributions to the development of this report. Sergey Neamoscou. We have been given permission from Sergey to include these, and most importantly have been given informed • Sam Avrett, The Fremont Center consent from the individuals themselves, to include their portraits within this report and its affiliated campaign materials. All of these • Kent Klindera, MPH, United States Agency for International individuals are aged 18 and above. The other photos used in this Development / Office of HIV/AIDS (USAID/OHA) report come from the free to use website, www.unspash.com . • Bruno Spire, INSERM and AIDES The Inter-Agency Regional Analysts Network (IARAN) is a global consortium of operational aid agencies and academic • Mutawakilu Mohammed, Center for Popular Education and institutions, with a team of analysts working around the world. Human Rights, Ghana (CEPEHRG) The IARAN has over five years experience in providing strategic foresight analysis to the humanitarian sector. • Pallav Patankar, ALMATA The IARAN supports humanitarian actors in managing future • George Ayala, PsyD, MSMGF (the Global Forum on MSM uncertainty through the use of techniques like scenario analysis & HIV) and strategic planning so non governmental organisations (NGOs) can be better positioned for the future by examining the • Karim Ladak, LBGT+ Activist, Toronto different ways it could unfold over the next one to fifteen years. This allows NGOs to be more responsive, resource efficient, and • Dr Cai Wilkinson, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, impactful. By looking to the future, we can pre-empt change Deakin University and save lives. • Laura Carter, Amnesty International UK • Yves Yomb, Africagay contre le sida • Dr Anne Senequier, IRIS • Doug Kerr, Dignity Network • Maurice Tomlinson, Canadian HIV/AIDS Legal Network • Carlos Idibouo, House of Culture for Human Diversity, Dignity Network • Dr Michel Bourrelly, IHU Méditerranée Infection • Sergey Neamoscou, photographer Image by Sergey Neamoscou 3 Key Findings • There are likely hundreds of millions of LGBTI people in • Additional leverage points that will be more difficult for the world, nearly all of whom experience some degree of actors to affect are: stigmatization, religious acceptance, social exclusion. and political scapegoating of LGBTI individuals. • The extent of the problem could be classified as a protracted • These factors are at the center of the system of interactions humanitarian crisis. that contribute to the social exclusion of LGBTI individuals. Influencing them will affect many other down-stream • The humanitarian sector is not doing enough to mainstream factors that have a more immediate impact on people’s LGBTI-inclusive dimensions into their work. lives like: workplace discrimination, rejection by family, denial of marriage rights, etc. • The heavy trends that will continue to shape LGBTI social exclusion through 2030 are: how we conceive sexuality, • Institutions such as governments, religious organizations, the legacy of colonialism, and the level of interaction the and the media are some of the most critical in shaping the general public has with LGBTI individuals. conditions for social inclusion. • Key leverage points for programs are the criminalization • There will be huge variation between countries, but overall of same-sex relations and media representations of LGBTI progress to building better social inclusion will be slow. This individuals. has serious implications for the health, safety and dignity of LGBTI communities the world over as they suffer the impacts of social exclusion. • The use of foresight approaches, like scenario analysis, can assist actors working on LGBTI issues to manage future uncertainty and plan more strategically. Image by Sergey Neamoscou 4 Executive Summary Social exclusion affects a range of development indicators for It is too easy for this crisis to be overlooked as LGBTI individuals this population. Social exclusion exists when individuals are are spread around the world, representing a small proportion prevented from participating in social, economic, and/or political of the population in any given area. Humanitarian attention is life. As a result, they may not have access to basic physical focused on crises where the distribution of human suffering needs like sustainable livelihoods, income, housing, education, forms a geographical cluster. As a result, the humanitarian and healthcare. However, they may also be denied intangibles sector has not focused on LGBTI whole groups, instead only like human rights, legal protections, and basic dignities. addressing specific instances of persecution, or indirectly This can have psychological implications like feelings of through other interventions like HIV programming. However, inferiority and alienation1. the ‘leave no one behind agenda3’ for the Sustainable Development Goals provides a framework and an opportunity LGBTI individuals are more likely to experience poverty, lack for humanitarian actors to action commitments to inclusivity, healthcare, attempt suicide, and be subjected to physical moving beyond rhetoric to close the gap between commitments or sexual violence, even in societies that are considered and implementation that can foster real change for the lived more accepting of LGBTI individuals. There are hundreds reality of LGBTI individuals around the world. Progress on LGBTI of millions of LGBTI individuals around the world, most of social exclusion by 2030 is essential to meeting the Sustainable whom are at a greater risk of “death, disease, or disruption Development Goals and tackling the causes of this protracted of their livelihoods2” than the rest of the population. As such, crisis that affects hundreds of millions of individuals worldwide. this situation should be characterized as a protracted crisis and receive greater attention from the humanitarian sector. Image by Sergey Neamoscou 5 Purpose and methodology The purpose of this report is to support planning on The methods of this report are based on a five-step analytical international LGBTI issues. It is intended to be used to raise toolkit developed by the IARAN: the profile of this ongoing crisis and highlight the significant implications for these groups, which stem from their ongoing 1. Architecture – identification of factors that drive LGBTI exclusion in many societies across the globe. Additionally, its social exclusion. findings serve to support policy formation, country strategies, and advocacy underpinning the “leave no one behind” 2. Impact-Uncertainty Matrix – ranking of factors by their agenda, working to ensure that the Sustainable Development impact and uncertainty to identify heavy trends and critical Goals realize their potential as a vehicle to advance equality. uncertainties. Scenario analysis is a means of managing uncertainty by 3. MICMAC – a cross impact matrix of the critical uncertainties examining past trends and emerging issues to explore probable to identify which are central to the system of interactions. These futures. The technique is used to break complex issues down are then used to form the logic of scenarios. into their components and identify which are the key drivers of change. Scenarios are based on the different combinations of 4. Hypothesis – morphological analysis of logical combinations how these drivers may unfold in the future. Each scenario is then of the possible future outcomes for each scenario logic. a description of a possible future. Scenarios are intended as tools that allow decision makers to plan for a range of contingencies and 5. Scenarios – a narrative description of the future based on strategically pursue policies that can lead to a preferred future. the combination of scenario logic hypotheses. Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Drivers Step 4 Step 5 Construction of sexual classifications Legacy of colonialism Heavy trends Scenario assumptions Level of interaction and familiarity Stigmatization Negative representation in Scenarios the media High influence on system Criminalization Scenario hypotheses Religious acceptance Factors driving social Political scapegoating exclusion of LGBTI individuals Association with illegal or immoral behaviour Critical uncertainties Workplace discrimination and unemployment Marriage and parental rights Low influence (but not low Perception of cause/ importance) on system responsibility Rejection by family/ community Poverty Discrimination by or against healthcare workers Figure 1. Representation of how the factors of the study are classified and used through the steps of the analysis. 6 Key terms Biological sex Transgender • Based on one’s biological characteristics including: • When one’s gender identity does not match their assigned chromosomes, genes, hormones, internal and external biological sex. This is a broad term that can reflect a sex organs, and secondary sex characteristics. Infants are spectrum
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