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Infocus Winter 2017 VOLUME 12 ISSUE 1 | WINTER 2018 inFOCUSQUARTERLY GLOBAL HOTSPOTS J. Michael Waller on Trump’s Foreign Policy Strategy | Emanuele Ottolenghi and John Hannah on Iranian Activies in South America | Yaakov Lappin on Israel’s Strategic Buildup | Simon Henderson on Saudi Arabia’s New Leadership | Fred Fleitz on North Korea’s Belligerence | Steven Metz on U.S. Forces in Africa | Harry Halem on Naval Rivalry in the South China Sea | James Lyons on Confronting Middle East Challenges | Shanthie Mariet D’Souza on Trump’s Afghanistan Plan | Jiri Valenta and Leni Friedman Valenta on the U.S.-Russia Relationship | Shoshana Bryen reviews The Chinese Invasion Threat Featuring an Interview with Congressman Doug Lamborn (R-CO) LETTER FROM THE PUBLISHER he world once seemed generally tried in the United States Indian assis- divided into “us” and “them.” Al- tance in Afghanistan was a small part of inFOCUS lies and Axis. America/NATO and President Trump’s speech on America’s VOLUME 12 | ISSUE 1 Russia/Warsaw Pact. Israelis and role in that country, but Shanthie Mariet T Publisher: Matthew Brooks Arabs; Israelis and Saudis on the same D’Souza doesn’t discount the possibility. Editor: Shoshana Bryen side of the equation was unthinkable. The Jiri Valenta and Leni Friedman Valenta Associate Editor: Michael Johnson world wasn’t necessarily safer then, but it consider what will be left of Syria after Copy Editors: Eric Rozenman was simpler. In the post-Cold War, post- the war. It is left to Michael Waller to Shari Hillman 9/11, post-Arab Spring world, lines are make sense of American strategy in a Karen McCormick blurred, relationships are more compli- disintegrating world. cated, and threats come from old and new Shoshana Bryen reviews The Chi- Published by: Jewish Policy Center sources in old and new configurations. nese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense 50 F Street NW, Suite 100 There are too many and American Strategy Washington, DC 20001. hot spots in too many in Asia by Ian Easton, in geographic locations to case you’d forgotten the (202) 638-2411 define this issue of in- threat China poses to our Follow us on FOCUS regionally. The democratic friend Taiwan. JewishPolicyCenter @theJPC Winter 2018 issue will go China hasn’t. The opinions expressed in inFOCUS do around the world, high- And don’t miss our not necessarily reflect those of the Jewish lighting some spots that interview with Rep. Doug Policy Center, its board, or its officers. are in the news daily, but others that are Lamborn (R-CO). not – but bear watching. If you appreciate what you’ve read, I To begin or renew your subscription, please contact us: [email protected] China, Hezbollah, and Iran – ad- encourage you to make a contribution to dressed by Harry Halem, Yaakov Lappin, the Jewish Policy Center. As always, you © 2018 Jewish Policy Center and James Lyons respectively – are “the can use our secure site: WRITERS’ GUIDELINES usual suspect” addresses for internation- http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/donate Essays must be 1,600 to 2,000 words al upheaval. Emmanuele Ottolenghi and in length. Email submissions to info@ John Hannah, Steven Metz, and Simon Sincerely, jewishpolicycenter.org. Henderson take us on roads less trav- eled as they focus on Venezuela, Africa, www.JewishPolicyCenter.org and Saudi Arabia. Fred Fleitz addresses Matthew Brooks, Korean reunification from the point of Executive Director view of North Korea – something rarely J. MICHAEL WALLER, Ph.D., is Vice President for Government Af- HARRY HALEM is a student at the University of St. Andrews, fairs at the Center for Security Policy. (3) reading MA (Hons) International Relations and Philosophy. (25) EMANUELE OTTOLENGHI, Ph.D., is a Senior Fellow and JOHN Admiral JAMES LYONS, USN (ret.) served as the Commander Featuring HANNAH is Senior Counselor at the Foundation for Defense of of the U.S. Pacific Fleet. (30) Democracies. (7) SHANTHIE MARIET D’SOUZA, Ph.D., is a visiting research YAAKOV LAPPIN is the Israel correspondent for Jane’s Defense associate at Murdoch University in Perth, Australia and Weekly. (10) Founder and President of Mantraya. (32) SIMON HENDERSON is the Baker Fellow and Director of the Gulf JIRI VALENTA, Ph.D., is a Non-Resident Senior Research and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute. (12) Associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies FRED FLEITZ is the Senior Vice President of the Center for Secu- (BESA) at Bar Ilan University in Tel Aviv, Israel. He and LENI rity Policy. (14) FRIEDMAN VALENTA are the principals of The Institute of Post-Communist Studies and Terrorism. (35) STEVEN METZ, Ph.D., is Director of Research and Research Pro- fessor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Army War College SHOSHANA BRYEN is the Editor of inFOCUS and the Senior Strategic Studies Institute (SSI). (17) Director of the Jewish Policy Center. (37) DOUG LAMBORN represents Colorodo’s fifth Congressional district. (20) Global Conflicts: Can We Keep Tabs On It All? by J. Michael Waller ith global conflicts stretching operations are so vast that nobody in the leadership and bureaucracies of the great the United States toward the U.S. can seem to keep track. Russia’s ag- multilateral organizations created and breaking point, many feared gressive intelligence collection and oper- mostly funded by the United States and Wthat the world’s only super- ations against the United States exceeded its closest allies, including the World power in 2017 was headed over a cliff. Cold War levels. Trans-national crime Bank and International Monetary Fund, Flailing policies in Afghanistan cartels, narcotics smuggling, human traf- both based just blocks from the White stole hard-fought American military ficking, child warriors, weapons prolif- House. gains and had made the Taliban enemy a eration, and other nightmares suddenly This was the background to out- player again. Things became even worse made Honduras and Peru, Uganda and sider Donald Trump’s transition to the in Iraq, with ISIS jihadists forming their Chad, Pacific Island microstates and oth- presidency. Trump arrived at the White own caliphate in the north and into er backwaters compelling national inter- House doubly handicapped: He had trou- Syria, and the Islamic Republic of Iran ests as illegal immigrants by the millions ble building a cohesive national security conquering much of the rest of Iraq, flooded the United States with impunity. team and remained dogged by allegations including co-opting the U.S.-installed The Pentagon’s 388-page Dictionary that he or members of his inner circle government in Baghdad. Iran not only of Military and Associated Terms didn’t had “colluded” with the Kremlin to win built ballistic missiles and probably an even have a definition for “victory.” the 2016 election, along with some KGB atomic bomb, but received pallets of Without defining victory, the Unit- hacking of electronic voting records. cash from Washington in the process – ed States operated almost 800 military The allegations seemed serious, con- and now, as we are learning, a free pass facilities in 70 countries and territories in sidering the source: leaks and later pub- for Hezbollah as part of the deal. North 2015. They ranged from giant bases like lic statements from senior officials in the Korea proved its capacity with success- Okinawa to small “lily pads” in Burkina FBI, CIA, and Director of National Intel- ful ballistic missile launches and under- ground nuclear tests. Communist China built militarized He merged fellow populist Theodore Roosevelt’s style, reefs in international waters, hacked when “bully” meant “beautiful” or “wonderful” – two of into the U.S. Office of Personnel Man- agement records and stole the most per- Trump’s favorite adjectives – with the modern sense of sonal details of every American who using intimidation or psychological force. had applied for a security clearance, and embarked on an aggressive strate- gic nuclear weapons upgrade. Vladimir Putin’s Russia unveiled a new generation Faso, according to a study by American ligence. The Trump team did a poor job of strategic nuclear warheads and de- University Professor David Vine. The addressing those allegations. It offered livery systems without a peep of protest annual cost is estimated at between $245 no guiding philosophy or strategy other from Washington, indirectly had paid and $300 billion. One of those bases, Al than to “make America great again.” the husband and family foundation of Udeid, Qatar, is a vital hub for the U.S. In inheriting the mess left by his a sitting secretary of state, shot down a Central Command (CENTCOM), which predecessor, president Trump offered Malaysian jetliner during its invasion leads most of the fight against the very little concrete assurance that he would and annexation of parts of Ukraine, and terrorists that the Qatar regime is indoc- really fix things. openly threatened NATO allies with trinating and funding. To this day, dozens of senior presi- subversion and destruction. Russian, Chinese, and other dential posts remain unfilled in the State Chinese espionage and influence unfriendly interests infiltrated the Department, Justice Department, and Global Hotspots| inFOCUS 3 Pentagon. Trump’s first team under Na- diplomats to nuance his statements with speech last July in Warsaw. In each tional Security Adviser Michael Flynn the wishy-washy “what the president speech, Trump singularly exercised brash blew apart before it could assemble, with meant to say was”-type comments. but carefully calibrated leadership. He a decidedly establishmentarian figure, The president had hybridized the alienated friends, nominal friends, and active duty Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, bully pulpit. He merged fellow populist allies on purpose in order to force them firing most of the Trump loyalists and Theodore Roosevelt’s style, when “bully” to deal on his terms, while empowering building a team of Obama holdovers.
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