VOLUME 12 ISSUE 1 | WINTER 2018

inFOCUSQUARTERLY GLOBAL HOTSPOTS

J. Michael Waller on Trump’s Foreign Policy Strategy | Emanuele Ottolenghi and John Hannah on Iranian Activies in South America | Yaakov Lappin on Israel’s Strategic Buildup | Simon Henderson on Saudi Arabia’s New Leadership | Fred Fleitz on North Korea’s Belligerence | Steven Metz on U.S. Forces in Africa | Harry Halem on Naval Rivalry in the South China Sea | James Lyons on Confronting Middle East Challenges | Shanthie Mariet D’Souza on Trump’s Afghanistan Plan | Jiri Valenta and Leni Friedman Valenta on the U.S.-Russia Relationship | Shoshana Bryen reviews The Chinese Invasion Threat

Featuring an Interview with Congressman Doug Lamborn (R-CO) LETTER FROM THE PUBLISHER

he world once seemed generally tried in the United States Indian assis- divided into “us” and “them.” Al- tance in Afghanistan was a small part of inFOCUS lies and Axis. America/NATO and President Trump’s speech on America’s VOLUME 12 | ISSUE 1 Russia/Warsaw Pact. Israelis and role in that country, but Shanthie Mariet T Publisher: Matthew Brooks Arabs; Israelis and Saudis on the same D’Souza doesn’t discount the possibility. Editor: Shoshana Bryen side of the equation was unthinkable. The Jiri Valenta and Leni Friedman Valenta Associate Editor: Michael Johnson world wasn’t necessarily safer then, but it consider what will be left of Syria after Copy Editors: Eric Rozenman was simpler. In the post-Cold War, post- the war. It is left to Michael Waller to Shari Hillman 9/11, post-Arab Spring world, lines are make sense of American strategy in a Karen McCormick blurred, relationships are more compli- disintegrating world. cated, and threats come from old and new Shoshana Bryen reviews The Chi- Published by: Jewish Policy Center sources in old and new configurations. nese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense 50 F Street NW, Suite 100 There are too many and American Strategy Washington, DC 20001. hot spots in too many in Asia by Ian Easton, in geographic locations to case you’d forgotten the (202) 638-2411 define this issue of in- threat China poses to our Follow us on FOCUS regionally. The democratic friend Taiwan. JewishPolicyCenter @theJPC Winter 2018 issue will go China hasn’t. The opinions expressed in inFOCUS do around the world, high- And don’t miss our not necessarily reflect those of the Jewish lighting some spots that interview with Rep. Doug Policy Center, its board, or its officers. are in the news daily, but others that are Lamborn (R-CO). not – but bear watching. If you appreciate what you’ve read, I To begin or renew your subscription, please contact us: [email protected] China, Hezbollah, and Iran – ad- encourage you to make a contribution to dressed by Harry Halem, Yaakov Lappin, the Jewish Policy Center. As always, you © 2018 Jewish Policy Center and James Lyons respectively – are “the can use our secure site: WRITERS’ GUIDELINES usual suspect” addresses for internation- http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/donate Essays must be 1,600 to 2,000 words al upheaval. Emmanuele Ottolenghi and in length. Email submissions to info@ John Hannah, Steven Metz, and Simon Sincerely, jewishpolicycenter.org. Henderson take us on roads less trav- eled as they focus on Venezuela, Africa, www.JewishPolicyCenter.org and Saudi Arabia. Fred Fleitz addresses Matthew Brooks, Korean reunification from the point of Executive Director view of North Korea – something rarely

J. MICHAEL WALLER, Ph.D., is Vice President for Government Af- HARRY HALEM is a student at the University of St. Andrews, fairs at the Center for Security Policy. (3) reading MA (Hons) International Relations and Philosophy. (25) EMANUELE OTTOLENGHI, Ph.D., is a Senior Fellow and JOHN Admiral JAMES LYONS, USN (ret.) served as the Commander

Featuring HANNAH is Senior Counselor at the Foundation for Defense of of the U.S. Pacific Fleet. (30) Democracies. (7) SHANTHIE MARIET D’SOUZA, Ph.D., is a visiting research YAAKOV LAPPIN is the Israel correspondent for Jane’s Defense associate at Murdoch University in Perth, Australia and Weekly. (10) Founder and President of Mantraya. (32) SIMON HENDERSON is the Baker Fellow and Director of the Gulf JIRI VALENTA, Ph.D., is a Non-Resident Senior Research and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute. (12) Associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies FRED FLEITZ is the Senior Vice President of the Center for Secu- (BESA) at Bar Ilan University in Tel Aviv, Israel. He and LENI rity Policy. (14) FRIEDMAN VALENTA are the principals of The Institute of Post-Communist Studies and Terrorism. (35) STEVEN METZ, Ph.D., is Director of Research and Research Pro- fessor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Army War College SHOSHANA BRYEN is the Editor of inFOCUS and the Senior Strategic Studies Institute (SSI). (17) Director of the Jewish Policy Center. (37) DOUG LAMBORN represents Colorodo’s fifth Congressional district. (20) Global Conflicts: Can We Keep Tabs On It All? by J. Michael Waller

ith global conflicts stretching operations are so vast that nobody in the leadership and bureaucracies of the great the United States toward the U.S. can seem to keep track. Russia’s ag- multilateral organizations created and breaking point, many feared gressive intelligence collection and oper- mostly funded by the United States and Wthat the world’s only super- ations against the United States exceeded its closest allies, including the World power in 2017 was headed over a cliff. Cold War levels. Trans-national crime Bank and International Monetary Fund, Flailing policies in Afghanistan cartels, narcotics smuggling, human traf- both based just blocks from the White stole hard-fought American military ficking, child warriors, weapons prolif- House. gains and had made the Taliban enemy a eration, and other nightmares suddenly This was the background to out- player again. Things became even worse made Honduras and Peru, Uganda and sider Donald Trump’s transition to the in Iraq, with ISIS jihadists forming their Chad, Pacific Island microstates and oth- presidency. Trump arrived at the White own caliphate in the north and into er backwaters compelling national inter- House doubly handicapped: He had trou- Syria, and the Islamic Republic of Iran ests as illegal immigrants by the millions ble building a cohesive national security conquering much of the rest of Iraq, flooded the United States with impunity. team and remained dogged by allegations including co-opting the U.S.-installed The Pentagon’s 388-page Dictionary that he or members of his inner circle government in Baghdad. Iran not only of Military and Associated Terms didn’t had “colluded” with the Kremlin to win built ballistic missiles and probably an even have a definition for “victory.” the 2016 election, along with some KGB atomic bomb, but received pallets of Without defining victory, the Unit- hacking of electronic voting records. cash from Washington in the process – ed States operated almost 800 military The allegations seemed serious, con- and now, as we are learning, a free pass facilities in 70 countries and territories in sidering the source: leaks and later pub- for Hezbollah as part of the deal. North 2015. They ranged from giant bases like lic statements from senior officials in the Korea proved its capacity with success- Okinawa to small “lily pads” in Burkina FBI, CIA, and Director of National Intel- ful ballistic missile launches and under- ground nuclear tests. Communist China built militarized He merged fellow populist Theodore Roosevelt’s style, reefs in international waters, hacked when “bully” meant “beautiful” or “wonderful” – two of into the U.S. Office of Personnel Man- agement records and stole the most per- Trump’s favorite adjectives – with the modern sense of sonal details of every American who using intimidation or psychological force. had applied for a security clearance, and embarked on an aggressive strate- gic nuclear weapons upgrade. Vladimir Putin’s Russia unveiled a new generation Faso, according to a study by American ligence. The Trump team did a poor job of strategic nuclear warheads and de- University Professor David Vine. The addressing those allegations. It offered livery systems without a peep of protest annual cost is estimated at between $245 no guiding philosophy or strategy other from Washington, indirectly had paid and $300 billion. One of those bases, Al than to “make America great again.” the husband and family foundation of Udeid, Qatar, is a vital hub for the U.S. In inheriting the mess left by his a sitting secretary of state, shot down a Central Command (CENTCOM), which predecessor, president Trump offered Malaysian jetliner during its invasion leads most of the fight against the very little concrete assurance that he would and annexation of parts of Ukraine, and terrorists that the Qatar regime is indoc- really fix things. openly threatened NATO allies with trinating and funding. To this day, dozens of senior presi- subversion and destruction. Russian, Chinese, and other dential posts remain unfilled in the State Chinese espionage and influence unfriendly interests infiltrated the Department, Justice Department, and

Global Hotspots| inFOCUS 3 Pentagon. Trump’s first team under Na- diplomats to nuance his statements with speech last July in Warsaw. In each tional Security Adviser Michael Flynn the wishy-washy “what the president speech, Trump singularly exercised brash blew apart before it could assemble, with meant to say was”-type comments. but carefully calibrated leadership. He a decidedly establishmentarian figure, The president had hybridized the alienated friends, nominal friends, and active duty Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster, bully pulpit. He merged fellow populist allies on purpose in order to force them firing most of the Trump loyalists and Theodore Roosevelt’s style, when “bully” to deal on his terms, while empowering building a team of Obama holdovers. meant “beautiful” or “wonderful” – two the people and countries he wanted to The strong personality of Defense Secre- of Trump’s favorite adjectives – with the empower. tary James Mattis, a retired Marine four- modern sense of using intimidation or Standing in the Saudi capital be- star general, provided a steady hand that psychological force. fore assembled world Muslim leaders, favored Clinton-Obama defense experts The foreign policy establishment Trump ripped into individuals, gov- anathema to Trump. Secretary of State hated it. But key players around the world ernments, and regimes that directly or Rex Tillerson appointed few to carry out loved his personal power and rhetoric, indirectly supported Islamist political his bureaucratic reform objectives, rely- and strong sense of purpose. Instead of indoctrination, subversion, and vio- ing heavily on the professional (and very rallying his own diplomats, message- lence. He told Muslim leaders again and ideological) foreign service and a dump- shapers, and others, Trump empowered again to identify the Islamists and “drive sterful of Obama loyalists. foreign leaders who shared his interests them out.” That speech, and substantial For those in the national security to do the work on their own. behind-the-scenes politicking, sparked a and diplomatic fields – even many of his He showed the same trait in empow- remarkable transformation. sympathizers and supporters – Trump ering U.S. military commanders wag- Suddenly, some of the worst chal- seemed an unlikely person to come up ing the war against ISIS. The president lenges the U.S. faced in attacking jihadist with a coherent and workable strategy for delegated authority to the commanders ideology started to recede. The Wahhabi American world leadership. themselves, with a simple order: Destroy regime of Saudi Arabia took the lead in Then, days before Congress passed the enemy. driving jihadist ideologues out of mosques, his promised tax reform, Trump released This sense of empowering under- schools, political and administrative posi- his first annual National Security Strat- lings, plus allies, coalition partners, and tions, and more. Allied with other Gulf egy. Brash Trumpian rhetoric that es- other sovereign powers that shared specif- states, the Saudis began a common purge, quickly isolating and squeezing the only Arab holdout – the rival Wahhabi regime ...the best political and psychological warfare is of Qatar – which continued to support the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamists and jihad- backed with the threat of overwhelming destruction. ist terrorists of various stripes, and the Is- lamist Erdogan regime in Turkey and the Shi’ite Islamic Republic of Iran. poused vague notions of American great- ic interests with America, became a core Ultimately, the Saudi response to ness coalesced December 18, 2017 into of Trump’s national security strategy. It Trump’s December announcement that a thoughtful, purposeful roadmap. An was as if he had borrowed from his come- the U.S. would move its embassy in Israel “America First” strategy suddenly didn’t from-behind presidential campaign in to Jerusalem was muted. Ditto for Egypt, seem so extreme, even though it was un- a crowded field and used his simple and Kuwait, and the UAE. The embassy move abashedly Trumpian. personal forcefulness to throw his oppo- to Jerusalem, taboo for decades, for fear nents off-track and empower those with of alienating important Arab countries, ❚❚Business Experience and shared interest. He let his own personality wasn’t such a big deal after all. This effort Personal Leadership generate tens of millions of dollars of free was, no doubt, worked behind the scenes Trump either didn’t bother, or more media to keep his costs down and let oth- by adept diplomacy among the U.S., Isra- likely was not prepared, to reorganize his ers carry his message. el, and Arab countries, but the expendi- government and appoint MAGA people It was as if he already had the key to tures were minimal and with great effect. to senior posts before he grew his presi- regaining America’s dominance around Trump’s Warsaw speech supported dential worldview. He used the theatri- the world for pennies on the dollar. the efforts of Poland and a few other cal power of his strong personality as a Trump’s strategic worldview co- Central European countries to save blunt instrument, yet did so with surgi- alesced in two major speeches: his “drive their civilizations from foreign refu- cal precision. It was almost as if he didn’t them out” address in Riyadh last May; gee invasions that would retard their need his (overwhelmingly unsupportive) and his “defense of Western civilization” demographics and ruin their national

4 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 J. MICHAEL WALLER: Global Conflicts: Can We Keep Tabs On It All? Nations, too, are sovereign. In Trump’s words, “peace, security, and prosperity depend on strong, sovereign nations that respect their citizens at home and coop- erate to advance peace abroad.” There’s a mutuality, a reciprocity here, just as in business, but also a sense of fair play. Governments had to earn their place by how they respected their citizens and co- operated with the rest of the world. This is not globalism. And it cer- tainly is not isolationism. Allies, in Trump’s view, don’t need to be a burden. They should be assets. “Allies and partners magnify our pow- er,” the National Security Strategy says. “We expect them to shoulder a fair share of the burden of responsibility to pro- President Donald Trump delivers remarks regarding the Administration’s National Secu- tect against common threats.” Alliances rity Strategy on December 19, 2017. (Photo: Joyce N. Boghosian / White House) and partnerships will be voluntary and mutually reinforcing: “We are not going identities. No longer were Poland, Hun- He offered respect to all, rallying com- to impose our values on others. Our al- gary, and the Czech Republic isolated petition but demanding fair play. He liances, partnerships, and coalitions are under German Chancellor Angela would tolerate no nonsense. He set out a built on free will and shared interests. Merkel’s satisfied thumb. Trump sup- new kind of American leadership in the When the United States partners with ported their courage more strongly than world. He wasn’t going to try to save ev- other states, we develop policies that en- he endorsed Britain’s exit from the Euro- ery failed state. Countries that can’t or able us to achieve our goals while our pean Union. And he didn’t shrink from won’t lift themselves up with some help, partners achieve theirs.” his critics. Indeed, he seemed to derive he explained, would be left to fail. Or the This is businesslike statecraft. This more energy from their opposition. private sector could do the work without is an economizing approach. It requires This was leadership. Many found burdening the American taxpayer. fewer diplomats, bureaucrats, lawyers, it shocking, and branded the president Decentralization is one of the keys. troops, and tax dollars. It allows the a reckless rogue. Donald Trump, a new Washington cannot – and will not – try United States to look after its interests by president who had never governed be- to manage everything any more. Suc- empowering and expecting others to do yond his family business, virtually iso- cessive interventionist administrations, the same, and working with those who lated from Congress and the federal bu- Democrat and Republican, had tried share our own interests. reaucracy and with an administration in to lead the world through manage- disarray, was guiding the United States ment, Trump reasoned. They became ❚❚Defeat and Destroy through countless crises and challenges so complacent leading the world’s only To President Trump, winning is that had seemed to be without end. superpower that they stopped seeing the mandatory. It is not a matter of mili- subversive and military threats around tary power. It is a matter of mindset. His ❚❚Empowerment and Leverage them until too late. Then they would strategy repeatedly states that the United Trump spelled out much of his ap- jump into a conflict or war for lack of States and its allies and partners should proach in his national security strategy. foresight and integration of all elements “defeat” all enemies and “destroy” jihad- He had a simple formula. He made a of statecraft. Again and again and again. ist terrorists and ideologues. America’s vision statement, based on American With no plan for victory. diplomats must become less complacent founding principles and placing the Citing the American founders, and more outgoing: “We must upgrade well-being of all American citizens first. Trump noted in his strategy that every our diplomatic capabilities to compete He explained his approach or business human being has a God-given right to be in the current environment and to em- model. He prioritized. He delegated. He a sovereign individual. Every person has brace a competitive mindset.” As part expected others to share responsibility. a role to play if they wish. Governments of what he called “information state- He challenged and empowered others. answer to the people, not vice-versa. craft,” Trump said “We will improve our

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 5 understanding of how adversaries gain multilateral organizations.” the U.S. global presence, while maximiz- informational and psychological ad- • “They employ sophisticated political, ing the economic benefit for American vantages across all policies. The United economic, and military campaigns that workers, businessmen, and investors. States must empower a true public diplo- combine discrete actions.” America finds allies and partners valu- macy capability to compete effectively in • “They are patient and content to ac- able, but only those with shared goals, a this arena.” crue strategic gains over time – making shared material burden, and the will to “We need our allies to do the it harder for the United States and our al- win. That cuts the burden even further. same,” Trump said, about modernizing lies to respond.” Weak and emerging friends and and improving, “and affirm the politi- • “Such actions are calculated to partners who accept American help must cal will to win.” achieve maximum effect without pro- earn their own place in the value chain so voking a direct military response from they can be sovereign and self-sufficient, ❚❚Asymmetric vision the United States. And as these incre- or at least mutually beneficial to the Unit- As laid out in the National Secu- mental gains are realized, over time, a ed States, thus slashing the American rity Strategy, Trump understands asym- new status quo emerges.” burden even more. Those who will not metric warfare better than previous • “The United States must prepare for implement sensible policies to prosper American presidents. According to his this type of competition. China, Russia, must fall by the wayside and accept char- strategic vision, the nation’s adversaries are strong because they study our insti- Weak and emerging friends and partners who tutions, processes, philosophy, and ac- tions, to look for our weak points. Here accept American help must earn their own place is some of what he said: in the value chain so they can be sovereign and • “Adversaries target sources of Ameri- can strength, including our democratic self-sufficient... system and our economy.” • “Adversaries studied the American way of war and began investing in capa- and other state and non-state actors recog- ity from others. Re-vamping intelligence bilities that targeted our strengths and nize that the United States often views the collection and analytical capabilities for sought to exploit perceived weaknesses.” world in binary terms, with states being long-term strategic purposes to antici- • “Russia aims to weaken U.S. influ- either ‘at peace’ or ‘at war,’ when it is actu- pate events, cuts expenses by reducing the ence in the world and divide us from our ally an arena of continuous competition. need for costly reactive policies. The same allies and partners.” Our adversaries will not fight us on these is true for those who would harm us. • “Through modernized forms of sub- terms. We will raise our competitive game Just when it seemed as if American versive tactics, Russia interferes in the to meet that challenge, to protect Ameri- global power was falling off the precipice, domestic political affairs of countries can interests, and to advance our values.” a brash and novice president found a way around the world.” He didn’t say it plainly in his strate- to prioritize national interests and econo- • These approaches “enable adversar- gy, but Trump shows that he views world mize the instruments of statecraft. Much ies to attempt strategic attacks against politics as constant political and psycho- of Donald Trump’s strategy recognizes the United States – without resorting to logical warfare. That type of conflict is and accepts the status quo. What’s revo- nuclear weapons – in ways that could cost-effective and can keep competition lutionary is his vision to regain Ameri- cripple our economy and our ability to below the military tripwire. However, can supremacy, build alliances, and de- deploy our military forces.” the best political and psychological war- feat adversaries without bankrupting the • America’s “adversaries and competi- fare is backed with the threat of over- country. If he starts appointing people fit tors become adept at operating below the whelming destruction. In the words of for the job who share his views, he can threshold of open military conflict and at the National Security Strategy, “We must make America great again. the edges of international law. Repressive, convince adversaries that we can and closed states and organizations, although will defeat them – not just punish them J. MICHAEL WALLER, Ph.D., is Vice brittle in many ways, are often more agile if they attack the United States.” President for Government Affairs at the and faster at integrating economic, mili- This is a real integrated approach to Center for Security Policy, and a found- tary, and especially informational means American national interests. American ing editorial board member of Defence to achieve their goals.” leaders should do what is best for the na- Strategic Communications, the schol- • “Repressive leaders often collabo- tion and the people. Not for other nations arly journal of NATO’s Strategic Com- rate to subvert free societies and corrupt and people. That criterion alone slashes munications Centre of Excellence.

6 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 Venezuela: Narco-State Meets Iran-Backed Terror by EMANUELE OTTOLENGHI and JOHN HANNAH

s if the political and economic chaos wracking Venezuela wasn’t worrying enough, a couple of re- Acent stories underscore the po- tential national security threat brewing there. First, last February’s designation of Venezuela’s vice president, Tareck El Aissami, as a drug kingpin by the U.S. Department of Treasury. Second, a CNN investigative report revealing that Ven- ezuela’s embassy in Iraq was allegedly selling Venezuelan passports and identi- ty documents to Middle Eastern nation- als. The CNN report doubled down on revelations that the Venezuelan embassy in Syria had engaged in similar activities in 2013, when a key Hezbollah liaison in Venezuela, the Treasury-sanctioned and Fromer Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (R) and former Iranian President Mah- FBI-wanted Ghazi Atef Nassereddine, moud Ahmadinejad (L) in Caracas in 2012. (Photo: AFP) was the deputy ambassador in Damas- cus. If true, such reckless action would Makled in exchange for facilitating the of officials implicated in narco-traffick- almost certainly facilitate the entry of shipments. These included shipments to ing also includes a former minister of in- Islamist militants to Latin America. Put the United States. During his trial, Mak- terior and justice, two senior intelligence all this together and what do you get? A led claimed to have bribed and worked officers who later became governors, and rabidly anti-American failed state that is with the highest echelons of the Venezu- now Vice President El Aissami. aggressively incubating the convergence elan state to keep his cocaine business The country’s economy is a seem- of narco-trafficking and jihadism in running smoothly. ingly endless downward spiral, yet the America’s own backyard. Subsequent cases showed that Vene- regime retains control. That’s partly be- Venezuela’s links to the drug trade zuelan collusion with the cartels reaches cause of the collusion of officials at the are deep and well documented. In 2009, the highest levels of the state. Two neph- highest levels of power with drug cartels, for example, the U.S. Department of ews of President Nicolas Maduro were whose limitless financial resources keep Treasury sanctioned Venezuelan na- arrested in Haiti and convicted on drug Maduro and his cronies afloat. tional, Walid Makled Garcia, under the trafficking charges by a federal jury in The implications for Washington Kingpin Act for drug trafficking. Mak- Manhattan in November 2016. General are extremely damaging and not sim- led was eventually arrested in Colombia Néstor Luis Reverol Torres – Venezuela’s ply in terms of the drugs and violence and extradited to Venezuela, where he current minister of interior and justice, flowing across the southern border. In stood trial. According to the February and former head of its national anti-nar- El Aissami’s case, five of the 13 entities 2017 Treasury designation of Vice Presi- cotics agency – was indicted in the Unit- sanctioned were Miami-based LLC’s. dent El Aissami, Makled’s cocaine ship- ed States last August on cocaine traffick- Their illicit activity compromises the in- ments enjoyed the protection of the vice ing charges, along with a former captain tegrity of the U.S. financial system. president, who received payments from in Venezuela’s National Guard. The list Of no less concern is Venezuela’s long

Global Hotspots| inFOCUS 7 history of collaboration with Iran, in- Argentina’s former president, Kristina mostly in 100 Bolivars notes, had been cluding sanctions evasion, terror finance, Fernandez de Kirchner and the Iranian rendered worthless by hyperinflation. and ideological subversion. During the regime to cover up Tehran’s and Hez- Venezuela suddenly announced it was presidencies of Hugo Chávez and Mah- bollah’s role in the terror attack. Iran’s withdrawing the bills from circulation moud Ahmadinejad, Caracas was a key Argentina-based intermediaries all have in December 2016, causing a run on the banks (their cutoff date was since repeat- edly extended). Even before they ceased Cooperation did not stop at banking and business. being legal tender, the bills were only worth a few U.S. cents apiece, but had Caracas also helped Tehran promote virulent anti- one redeeming quality: they are made Americanism across Latin America. with the same quality paper produced by the U.S. supplier to the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing and are there- fore a favored choice for counterfeiting U.S. currency. If turned into $100 bills, facilitator of Tehran’s sanctions-busting links to Rabbani’s missionary network. the useless Bolivars would suddenly efforts. The two regimes established busi- Some of them have been arrested, while have been worth 2 billion dollars. ness ventures and financial institutions the former president, as of this writing, Early reports indicated that the in Venezuela, which they used to launder is facing an arrest warrant for her role in money was destined to be traded on the Iranian money, procure technology, and the alleged cover-up. black market in Ciudad Del Este, a Para- bribe senior Venezuelan officials. Less understood is the Venezuelan guayan frontier town in the Tri-Border Cooperation did not stop at bank- nexus between organized crime and Area (TBA) of Argentina, Brazil, and ing and business. Caracas also helped Iran’s radical Islamic network, espe- Paraguay, and the home of U.S. desig- Tehran promote virulent anti-Ameri- cially its most dangerous terrorist proxy, nated Hezbollah counterfeiters. It is also canism across Latin America. Indeed, Hezbollah. Hezbollah has used South possible that the money would first go Venezuela has increasingly become a America as a base for its terror-finance through Bolivia’s money houses, which center for Iran’s revolutionary agitation networks for decades, laundering money still exchange Bolivars at Venezuela’s fic- in the Western Hemisphere. on behalf of criminal organizations and titious official rate. Even if that were the In 2004, Tehran established the using the profits to finance its quest for case, Bolivian money changers would Centro de Intercambio Cultural Iran power in Lebanon, military adventurism seek to make a profit from the worthless LatinoAmerica, or CICIL, in Caracas. in Syria, and terrorism overseas. In turn, currency – and the easiest way to do that CICIL is run by Islam Oriente, a foun- its criminal activities benefit the Ven- is if the cash would eventually be sold to dation based in the Iranian religious ezuelan regime. local counterfeiters. center of Qom and headed by Mohsen Rabbani – the Iranian cleric implicated in the 1994 bombing of the Jewish cul- Hezbollah has used South America as a base for tural center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people. Rabbani’s emissaries use Ven- its terror-finance networks for decades, laundering ezuela as a forward operating base for money on behalf of criminal organizations and their Latin American activities, which include exporting the Iranian revolu- using the profits to finance its quest for power... tion, radicalizing local Muslims, help- ing Hezbollah consolidate its foothold among Western Hemisphere Lebanese A case in point is the February 2017 Suspicions of a narco-Hezbollah communities, and linking to social and discovery by Paraguayan law enforce- connection were also confirmed by local political movements that share Iran’s ment agencies of 25 tons of Venezu- sources. In communications with one of anti-American agenda. Iran’s mission- elan currency hidden in cloth sacks and the authors, local intelligence officials ary work in Latin America has often stashed in the home of a weapons mer- confirmed that Hezbollah operatives in been downplayed as either innocuous or chant in the frontier town of Salto del the area have been seeking Bolivars for ineffective. Yet recent revelations about Guaira, on the Paraguay-Brazil border. months. They also see a link between the 1994 AMIA bombing in Buenos Ai- Two of the suspects have criminal re- those arrested and another local Hez- res have exposed a collusion between cords for arms smuggling. The money, bollah operative.

8 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 Global Hotspots | inFOCUS EMANUELE OTTOLENGHI Meets Iran-Backed and JOHN HANNAH: Venezuela: Terror Narco-State

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. (Photo: Mohammad Berno / Iranian President’s Office) It remains to be seen if these con- facilitator of the Venezuela-Hezbollah The Bolivars seizure – one of many nections will be confirmed. But it’s clear connection, favors the injection of bil- in the area since 2015 – illustrates the to see why Iran, Hezbollah, and Ven- lions of counterfeit greenbacks into the potential repercussions of paying insuf- ezuela would all benefit from such a global economy because such a step is ficient attention to the boiling crisis in scheme. Suffering from a self-inflicted damaging to the U.S. financial system. Venezuela. The country is a failed nar- economic disaster, Venezuela is running The sanctioning of a Quds Force net- co-state run by a clique of greedy anti- American ideologues in cahoots with Islamic radicals beholden to Iran, the world’s foremost state sponsor of terror. As long as the Maduro regime governs in Caracas, As long as the Maduro regime governs in Caracas, the crisis that is consum- the crisis that is consuming Venezuela will further ing Venezuela will further strengthen strengthen Washington’s enemies... Washington’s enemies in the Western Hemisphere. Developing a coherent strategy to address this deadly conver- gence of threats should continue to be a high priority for U.S. policymakers. out of foreign currency reserves. Turn- work producing counterfeited currency ing worthless currency into greenbacks to fuel the Yemen civil war shows that EMANUELE OTTOLENGHI, Ph.D., is a helps address that problem. Hezbollah in this area, as in many other illicit ac- Senior Fellow and JOHN HANNAH is Se- gets a hefty commission for the job and tivities, Iran unscrupulously engages in nior Counselor at the Foundation for De- gains political leverage in Venezuela in rogue behavior to promote its proxies fense of Democracies. A version of this ar- exchange for its help. Iran, as the key and tend to their financial needs. ticle appeared in Foreign Policy Magazine.

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 9 The IDF’s Priority: War Readiness by YAAKOV LAPPIN

srael is enjoying a period of relative them to devastating Israeli firepower. the Islamic Republic will be able restart calm, but in five to ten years, its strate- Such deterrence, could, however, its nuclear program at the end of the sun- gic environment will likely be signifi- prove time-limited. The prospect of set clauses (if it does not cheat and breach Icantly more complex and challenging combat with these foes, even if unin- the agreement beforehand). than it is today. For that reason, the Is- tended, seems likely to grow with time. Iran could begin enriching ura- rael Defense Forces (IDF) has, under the The risk of clashes with Hezbollah and nium again (using improved techniques Gideon multi-year working plan, placed Hamas will also be joined over time by it is currently researching) to bring it to combat training and war readiness at new threats, the seeds of which can al- nuclear breakout, and could try to reach the top of its agenda. ready be discerned. that point at a time of its choosing. Its The IDF General Staff has identified As Maj. Gen. Herzl Halevi, head of missile program is already developing. the objective of attaining a good state of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Direc- This means Israel could find itself in a war readiness, and keeping this readi- torate, said in June, “Israel’s power de- state-to-state conflict in the not too dis- ness high, as a crucial objective for Is- ters all enemies in all arenas, state and tant future. rael in the medium to long term. It is an non-state … but there is a basic insta- Additionally, Arab Sunni states objective that has been neglected in past bility, and an increase in non-state ac- threatened by Iran have launched civil years due to budget instability and the tors. Their force build-up is intensify- nuclear programs of their own. These lack of a clear strategic directive to place ing, increasing the chances of scenarios could turn out to be the initial stages of war readiness front and center. of [a security] deterioration, even if no military nuclear programs, designed to This dangerous blind spot appears one wants these scenarios.” counter Iran’s nuclear shadow. to have been corrected. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot is inten- sively promoting the objective of war ...truces are fueled by Israeli deterrence and an readiness throughout the whole of the Israeli ability to skillfully leverage influences on military. A multi-year working plan provides a stable funding environment enemy decision-making. in which this can be achieved. The stable truces in place with Hamas and Hezbollah, and the freeze Several factors point to a likely in- The prospect of a nuclear arms race in in Iran’s nuclear program, allow the IDF crease of threats. An assessment of these the region is therefore very real. It might time and space to focus on combat train- confirms the wisdom of Eizenkot’s di- develop as an added layer on top of the ing and force build-up, thereby giving rective to focus on achieving and main- fast-paced conventional arms race that al- Israel the ability to prepare for a more taining good war readiness now, while ready exists throughout the Middle East. dangerous future. The truces are fueled conditions allow. An arms race in a region marked by Israeli deterrence and an Israeli abil- The Iranian regime has not given up by instability and multiple failed states ity to skillfully leverage influences on its strategic objective of obtaining nuclear calls for an IDF that is capable of deal- enemy decision-making. weapons. The sunset clauses on the nucle- ing with both non-state actors and state Both of the hybrid terrorist-guer- ar deal will lift key restrictions over the militaries that might, in the future, fall rilla armies, Hezbollah and Hamas, are next eight to thirteen years. Assuming under the command of revolutionary bogged down by challenges of their own. the hard-line Shiite ideological-religious Islamists. The latter are seeking to top- Despite their ideologies, they are reluc- camp and the Islamic Revolutionary ple the pragmatic, rational Arab Sunni tant to initiate a full-scale clash with Is- Guards Corps (IRGC) continue to con- governments that currently share many rael at this stage, as that would expose trol Iran’s foreign and military policies, interests with Israel.

10 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 YAAKOV LAPPIN: The IDF’s Priority: War Readiness

Soldiers of the IDF’s Givati Brigade train alongside U.S. Army forces in 2016. (Photo: IDF) Meanwhile, powerful hybrid non- such weapons to Iranian proxies. need it in real time. state actors, which are part army and Israeli war readiness programs have The IDF is also creating more bor- part terrorist-guerrilla, are building up doubled combat training for conscripts der security battalions whose sole task is their forces near Israel’s borders. Hez- and reserves. The IDF is also working defense, thereby freeing infantry to con- bollah in particular, though also Hamas, to ensure it has sufficient ammunition, duct more war training. continues to build up its offensive capa- fuel, and other equipment necessary to There is much trouble on the hori- bilities. The Iranian missile factories set sustain prolonged combat operations in zon in the region. Despite the fact that up in Lebanon are the latest indication multiple arenas, including ones that do the Middle East constitutes only five of Hezbollah’s ambitious force build- not border Israel. percent of the world’s population, 58 up program, which threatens the Israeli IDF sources indicate that the mili- percent of world refugees are Middle home front as well as strategic targets tary’s force build-up program is being Easterners fleeing lands ravaged by con- inside Israel. modeled on the assessment of enemy flict and radicalism. Where Syria once existed as a cen- capabilities, not on potential scenarios. According to Military Intelligence tralized state, an assortment of well- This more flexible approach is signifi- figures, 21 million youths in the Middle armed Iranian-backed forces is gaining cantly better suited to the unpredictable, East have no access to an education sys- strength. The Shiite axis in Syria com- volatile Middle East that is taking shape. tem, meaning they will be prime recruit- bats Sunni rebel organizations (some of Israel is mass-producing armored ment targets for Islamist terrorist forces them fundamentalist and jihadist) and personnel carriers and tanks with Rafa- in the future. receives Russian air support. el’s Trophy active protection system on Societies in places like Syria, Iraq, A number of these non-state entities board, meaning IDF formations moving and Yemen have broken apart, and a lost are arming themselves with destructive into enemy territory in the future will generation is growing up without any vi- firepower, including precision-guided not be hindered by shoulder-fired mis- able solutions. heavy rockets and missiles. These capa- siles and RPGs. “I doubt any new Marshall plan can bilities were once reserved for the great The air force is building up its abil- be applied,” Halevi said in June, in refer- powers. Halevi described this situation ity to strike unprecedented numbers of ence to this situation. “The world must as one in which “great military power is targets in very little time and is devel- be explicitly disturbed.” falling into irresponsible hands.” oping firepower the Middle East has yet The IDF is busy building up its own to witness. YAAKOV LAPPIN is the Israel cor- capabilities, and it remains the most po- Military intelligence is combining respondent for Jane’s Defense Weekly tent military force in the Middle East. big data with hi-tech sensors to gather and author of Virtual Caliphate: Ex- But as time progresses, Israel’s strategic more information on more targets than posing the Islamist State on the Inter- depth is shrinking due to the mass pro- ever before. An IDF C4i network is tak- net. A version of this article apeared duction of precision weaponry by Iran’s ing shape that will be capable of deliv- in the Begin-Sadat Center for Stra- military industries and the trafficking of ering that intelligence to the units that tegic Studies’s Perspective Papers.

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 11 The Next Generation of Saudi Rulers by SIMON HENDERSON

rown Prince Mohammed bin the kingdom’s founder, Ibn Saud, who • Abdulaziz bin Fahd is a great-grand- Salman appears to be shredding died in 1953. Mohammed bin Salman son of Ibn Saud and deputy governor of our understanding about how is entirely prudent in promoting these the Jawf region, bordering Jordan, since CSaudi Arabia is ruled. Seeking to younger cousins, appealing to their am- June 2017. His father, a soldier, was made consolidate his power, he threw caution bition and vanity, and securing their commander of Saudi ground forces in and consensus-building – the tradition- loyalty. It is a good way of internalizing April 2017. al techniques of Saudi leadership – out any competition between family lines • Faisal bin Sattam was appointed am- the window months ago, proceeding in- – Ibn Saud had more than 40 sons, and bassador to Italy in June 2017. He had stead with almost reckless speed and an the number of grandsons is in the hun- shown early sympathy for the rise of Mo- apparent disregard for winning the sup- dreds. Mohammed bin Salman’s actions hammed bin Salman: As a member of port of his uncles and numerous cous- have so far forestalled a collective family the Allegiance Council (the grouping of ins. The arrest of 11 princes on charges revolt, proving once again the utility of senior family members), he voted against of corruption suggest the royal family, that old adage: divide and conquer. Prince Muqrin becoming deputy crown the House of Saud, is no longer above As in all monarchies, bloodline is prince in 2014, an early sign of belonging the law. often more important than competence to the Salman camp. (Muqrin became Commentary over Mohammed bin for prospective leaders in Saudi Arabia. crown prince on King Abdullah’s death Salman’s recent moves has been divided Mohammed bin Salman probably wants in January 2015 but was replaced by King between predictions that he is leading the to promote talent – but will also be pay- Salman three months later. The late King country toward dictatorship or toward family revolt. But a careful examination of Mohammed bin Salman’s actions and As in all monarchies, bloodline is often more statements over the last year suggests that he is more calculating than impetuous. important than competence for prospective leaders The Saudi attorney general said that the in Saudi Arabia. corruption investigations had been go- ing on for three years, while Mohammed bin Salman mentioned the wide-ranging crackdown on corruption in a May in- ing attention to how to deflect resent- Abdullah is reported to have schemed terview. “I assure you that any person ment or the hint of opposition. Promot- to replace Muqrin with Salman, thereby involved in a corruption case, whether ing sons can take some of the pain out of creating an opening as crown prince for minister, prince, or whatever, will not es- fathers being sidelined. the king’s son Miteb, who was sacked as cape,” he said. The House of Saud has witnessed national guard minister and is one of Meanwhile, since April, Moham- difficult transitions before. What’s dif- those detained.) med bin Salman, now 32, has been qui- ferent this time is that age is no longer • Abdulaziz bin Saud is the 30-year- etly orchestrating the appointments of equivalent to seniority and instead may old interior minister, appointed in June a range of young princes in their late have become a handicap. Comparative 2017. He replaced his full uncle and the twenties or thirties to positions of pow- youth necessarily means a relative lack then-crown prince, Muhammad bin er. They will likely be crucial to the suc- of experience, but that is a risk which Nayef, who was forced to resign. Abdu- cess of his remodeling of the kingdom Mohammed bin Salman seems to have laziz bin Saud’s father is governor of the and could emerge as arbiters of power decided he can handle. oil-rich Eastern Province, where Saudi for decades to come. They are all either The young up-and-coming princes Shiites form a local majority. His new the grandsons or great-grandsons of to watch are (in alphabetical order): powers were curtailed within days of

12 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 SIMON HENDERSON: Meet the Next Generation of Saudi Rulers which is plausible because his father had been sidelined. An additional rumor is that his death was not accidental, for which, as yet, there is no evidence. This list of princes is also notable for who is absent. It does not include any sons or grandsons of the late King Abdullah, and has only one grandson of King Fahd. Any direct relatives of Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, one of the so-called Sudairi Seven, are also absent. The omission is eas- ily explicable: Ahmad is thought to have voted in the Allegiance Council against the appointment of Mohammed bin Salman as crown prince in June this year. Mohammed bin Salman clearly sees himself, and is seen by his father, as the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud. (Photo: Kremlin.ru) next king of Saudi Arabia. The latest ru- his appointment by the transfer of some He is the Oxford-educated son of Prince mor is that the change may happen rela- of his responsibilities to a new state se- Bandar bin Sultan, the former ambassa- tively quickly. Traditionally, the success curity organization. If he was upset, he dor to the United States who cultivated of his transition would depend as much didn’t show it publicly. ties with multiple American presidents. as anything on acceptance and support • Abdulaziz bin Turki, 34, is deputy • Khalid bin Salman, 29, was appointed in the wider royal family, but Moham- chairman of the General Sport Author- as the Saudi ambassador to Washington med bin Salman’s impatience and am- ity, appointed June 2017. His father, this year. He is a former F-15 pilot and bition suggest that won’t be an option. Turki bin Faisal, served as ambassador full brother of Mohammed bin Salman. Instead, his authority will rely on the in Washington and London, as well as • Saud bin Khalid was appointed depu- backing of those in this list. head of the kingdom’s external intel- ty governor of Medina in April 2017. Another group that could prove cru- cial is princes in the military. These are harder to identify and are essentially in Comparative youth necessarily means a relative lack their positions to stop coups. A 1985 State Department cable released by WikiLeaks of experience, but that is a risk which Mohammed is rather dated but provides a good over- bin Salman seems to have decided he can handle. view. “The mere presence of princes in the Armed Forces provides some degree of sta- bility to the Al Saud regime,” it concludes. King Salman is thought to see Mo- ligence body, the General Intelligence • Turki bin Muhammad, 38, was ap- hammed bin Salman as a modern-day Presidency. Of late, Turki bin Faisal has pointed advisor to the royal court in June Ibn Saud, a potentially great leader with engaged in public discussions with for- 2017. His father, a son of the late King huge ambition, and much more promising mer Israeli officials. Fahd, was governor of the Eastern Prov- than any other, older potential contenders • Ahmed bin Fahd, a great-grandson ince from 1985 to 2013. for the throne. But even Mohammed bin of Ibn Saud, was appointed deputy gov- A prince who would have made this Salman appears to realize that, in order ernor of the Eastern Province in April list was Mansour bin Muqrin, the dep- to transform his kingdom’s economy and 2017. His father, who had been deputy uty governor of Asir Province, who was cope with the challenges of regional chaos, governor of the Eastern Province from killed in a helicopter crash on Novem- he must be the leader of a royal team. 1986 to 1993, died in 2001. ber 5. He had served as deputy governor • Bandar bin Khalid, 52, was appoint- since 2013 and was made advisor to King SIMON HENDERSON is the Baker ed advisor to the royal court in June 2017. Salman in April 2015, when his father Fellow and director of the Gulf and En- His father is governor of Mecca Province. was pushed from the position of crown ergy Policy Program at The Washing- • Khalid bin Bandar was appointed prince. There is considerable speculation ton Institute. A version of this article ambassador to Germany in June 2017. that he disliked Mohammed bin Salman, apeared in Foriegn Policy Magazine.

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 13 Addressing A Nuclear North Korea by FRED FLEITZ

o North Korea’s nuclear and lives within 50 miles of the demilita- Chinese President Xi Jinping last spring missile programs represent de- rized zone (DMZ). Ten million live in to reduce tensions with the North. terrence to protect it from an at- the capital, Seoul, only 30 miles from the Pyongyang would freeze its nuclear and Dtack by the United States, defen- DMZ. There are 28,500 U.S. troops in missile programs in exchange for the sive weapons the world can live with, or South Korea plus their family members. United States and South Korea suspend- are they an existential threat to South A North Korean counterattack ing joint military exercises. The Trump Korea, Japan and the United States that could kill millions. The North has an administration firmly rejected this pro- may require the use of U.S. military estimated 8,000 artillery cannons and posal since it would not reduce the threat force to address? rocket launchers near the DMZ, many from these weapons and would weaken These questions are being debated hidden underground, which could fire South Korean security. in light of major advances in both pro- an estimated 300,000 rounds on the In response to increased U.S. pres- grams over the last year and go to the South in the first hour of a counterat- sure on North Korea to end its nuclear heart of difficult decisions that President tack. In addition, North Korea is be- program after its possible H-bomb test Donald Trump must make concerning lieved to have hundreds of ballistic mis- last September, Russian President Vladi- North Korea that could cause or prevent siles capable of striking South Korea and mir Putin said North Korea “will eat a cataclysmic war. Japan. The Washington Post reported on grass but will not stop their program as August 8, 2017 that the U.S. Intelligence long as they do not feel safe.” During a ❚❚The Program as a Deterrent Community had concluded that North recent visit to China, former Secretary of Until recently, it was plausible to Korea has “produced nuclear weapons State Hillary Clinton urged negotiations argue that North Korea might be de- for ballistic missile delivery, to include over what she described as the overly an- veloping ballistic missiles and nuclear delivery by ICBM-class missiles.” tagonistic rhetoric of President Trump. weapons for defensive reasons – as a In the same article, The Post report- Clinton also stated that “inaction is a deterrent. North Korean officials have ed that the U.S. Intelligence Community choice as well” in dealing with the North made this argument on many occasions, believes the North has up to 60 nuclear Korean threat, an ironic comment given claiming their nuclear weapons and the weapons. North Korea also is known to the failure of the Obama administration’s missiles to carry them will prevent the have chemical weapons and is believed policy of inaction toward North Korea. Kim Jong Un regime from suffering to have a biological weapons program. the fate of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Believing that North Korea’s nucle- ❚❚Bipartisan Policy Failures Moammar Qaddafi in Libya. ar weapons and missiles are deterrents it In fairness to the Obama admin- The North Korean news agency will never give up – and that the cost of istration, North Korea’s nuclear pro- said in January 2016 after North Korea’s attempting to force Pyongyang to do so gram is a threat several Republican and fourth nuclear test, “History proves that would be too high – many conclude the Democrat presidents failed to resolve. powerful nuclear deterrence serves as world needs to learn to live with North The George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, the strongest treasured sword for frus- Korea’s nuclear and missile arsenal and and George W. Bush administrations trating outsiders’ aggression.” find a negotiated solution. This is the all attempted diplomacy and conces- In addition, there has long been a view of most arms control experts and sions to entice Pyongyang to end its concern that any use of military force American lawmakers, as well as the lead- nuclear weapons program. North Korea against North Korea would result in a ers of China, South Korea, and Russia. repeatedly pocketed these concessions deadly counterattack against South Ko- Since mid-2017, North Korea, Rus- but failed to live up to its commitments. rea and possibly Japan. Nearly half of sia, and China have been promoting a On many occasions, there was a cycle South Korea’s population of 51 million “freeze-for-freeze” proposal raised by of North Korean provocations to start

14 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 Addressing A Nuclear North Korea FRED FLEITZ: multilateral talks that it then would use Korea and preferring to concentrate on missile tests between 2012 and 2016 ver- to extract concessions, making vague getting a nuclear agreement with Iran, sus only 31 under the regimes of Kim’s commitments and pausing its provoca- the Obama administration adopted father and grandfather. These included tions before resuming them to force new “Strategic Patience” in mid-2012, a pol- more advanced long-range and medium talks to extract more concessions. icy of inaction toward North Korea, for range missiles, cruise missiles, and sol- According to former Secretary of the rest of the Obama years. id-fueled missiles. State Colin Powell, North Korea started Under Strategic Patience, the cheating on a 1994 nuclear agreement Obama administration refused to of- ❚❚Enter the Trump Team that the Clinton administration negoti- fer North Korea any incentives to re- North Korea has ignored tougher ated to halt the North’s nuclear weapons sume nuclear talks and insisted that rhetoric by President Trump and con- program, the Agreed Framework, “as talks would not resume until the North tinued to expand its nuclear and missile the ink was drying.” This was a gener- agreed to end its nuclear program. This programs in 2017. It conducted an un- ous, one-sided agreement that provided policy reportedly was based on the as- derground nuclear test on September 3, North Korea with fuel oil and the con- sumption that taking no action on the 2017 that it claims was an H-bomb and struction of two light-water nuclear North Korea situation was acceptable had an explosive yield of as much as 250 reactors. The Agreed Framework post- because Pyongyang was unlikely to kilotons. This would be 25 times more poned sending spent fuel rods – a source make the technological advances to turn powerful than North Korea’s second of plutonium that can be used in bombs its primitive nuclear weapons program largest nuclear test in September 2016. – out of the country and did not mention into a serious regional threat or a threat North Korea also conducted 20 mis- the one or two nuclear weapons the CIA to the United States. Moreover, this pol- sile tests in 2017. These included more believed North Korea had at the time. icy also reportedly was based on the be- advanced designs such as ICBMs, a sol- The George W. Bush administration lief that the North Korean regime might id-fueled medium-range missile and a tried to strike a nuclear agreement with collapse if left alone. new intermediate-range missile. North North Korea in 2008 and, as part of these Strategic Patience was not designed Korea’s November 29, 2017 ICBM test negotiations, agreed to remove North to solve the North Korean threat. It was reached 2,800 miles on a lofted trajecto- Korea from the U.S. State Sponsor of a policy to kick this problem down the ry into space and may have been capable Terrorism list in October of that year. A road to the next president. of striking anywhere in United States on a normal trajectory. There are growing concerns that The North has an estimated 8,000 artillery cannons rapid advances in North Korea’s nuclear and rocket launchers near the DMZ ... which could and missile programs over the last few years may have been due to assistance fire an estimated 300,000 rounds on the South in from other countries, possibly China, the first hour of a counterattack. Russia, Ukraine or Pakistan, and outside experts. In addition, some experts – in- cluding Amb. John Bolton – worry that few weeks later, after North Korea got all Under Strategic Patience, North North Korea and Iran may be collaborat- the U.S. concessions it was looking for, it Korea’s nuclear and missile programs ing in their nuclear and missile programs backed out of the agreement. A week be- surged after Kim Jong Un succeeded and that Tehran may be “outsourcing” its fore President Bush left office, North Ko- his father in December 2011. The North nuclear weapons research to North Ko- rean officials announced they had weap- conducted its third nuclear test in 2013 rea. That way, Iran would not be found onized 68 pounds of plutonium – enough and fourth and fifth tests in 2016. These in violation of a 2015 nuclear agreement, for four or five nuclear bombs. tests were of increasing explosive yields. the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action North Korea also claimed that it tested (JCPOA), meant to limit its nuclear weap- ❚❚Strategic Patience’s Failure miniaturized nuclear devices and a hy- ons development. The North Korean government ig- drogen bomb in 2013. North Korea en- President Trump’s anti-North Ko- nored the Obama administration’s de- gaged in increasingly belligerent rhetoric rean rhetoric, including a threat in his termined efforts in 2009 to negotiate a during this period, including frequent September 2017 UN General Assembly nuclear agreement by conducting a long- threats to attack the United States with speech to “totally destroy” North Ko- range missile test in April 2009 and its nuclear weapons. rea if it threatens U.S allies, and tweets second nuclear test on May 21, 2009. Af- There also was a surge in North Ko- criticizing North Korea as well as China ter being repeatedly rebuffed by North rea’s missile program. It conducted 56 and South Korea for not pressuring the

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 15 North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un watches a military drill on April 26, 2017. (Photo: Korean Central News Agency)

North have been controversial, but they possibly to attack U.S. territory. The pos- the North plans to use these weapons in also appear to have succeeded in helping sibility that these weapons are being de- the future. Limited use of force might pass stronger UN sanctions and con- veloped with Iranian funding and could be declaring a missile no-fly zone over vincing China to enforce them. be shared with Iran also argues against North Korea, shooting down any mis- considering them as only or mainly a de- siles Pyongyang tests, a naval blockade, ❚❚An Offensive Force terrent the world can live with. and stopping and searching North Ko- President Trump has condemned Due to miscalculation or error dur- rean ships for WMD-related cargo. prior U.S. administrations for negotia- ing tests of its ever more advanced nu- Deciding to take such action may be tions with North Korea, which he claims clear weapons and missiles, as well as the the most difficult decision Mr. Trump amounted to appeasement. The presi- North’s refusal to agree to talks to denu- will make as president. But I believe he dent has been similarly critical of recent clearize the Korean peninsula, chances has determined correctly that the global calls to negotiate a freeze on North Ko- rea’s nuclear and missile programs be- cause this would lock in these programs Due to miscalculation or error during tests of its ever and because of concerns that Pyongyang would cheat on such an agreement. more advanced nuclear weapons and missiles ... A new factor affecting U.S. North chances of a war with North Korea are increasing. Korea policy is that Pyongyang’s nuclear weapon and missile efforts have grown so much in size and sophistication that they can no longer be considered solely, of a war with North Korea are increas- risk posed by North Korea’s nuclear and or even primarily, a deterrent. These ing. The Trump administration took missile programs has become so serious weapons probably are being developed the right approach in 2017 by increasing that he cannot kick this threat down the as an offensive force that Pyongyang will sanctions and pressing nations world- road to the next president. one day use to achieve its most impor- wide to sever ties to the North. But Presi- tant foreign policy objective: unifying dent Trump now must weigh the risk of FRED FLEITZ is the senior vice presi- the Korean peninsula under its leader- the limited use of military force given dent of the Center for Security Policy and ship. Such weapons could also be used to North Korea’s refusal to yield to peaceful served as chief of staff to Under Secretary drive America forces from the region and pressure and the growing likelihood that of State John Bolton from 2001-2005.

16 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 A Light Footprint in a Hot Spot: America’s Fight in Africa by STEVEN METZ

n early October 2017, a small group of Extensive research bears this out. Violent Islamic extremism in its U.S. troops joined local forces from the For instance, the United Nations Devel- contemporary form first appeared in African nation of Niger on a patrol to opment Programme has found that most North Africa during the brutal Alge- Igather information on extremists op- African extremists come from marginal- rian civil war from 1991-2002. It gained erating in that country. This was not un- ized regions within their country; have a foothold in East Africa as Osama bin precedented: as extremism spread across little exposure to other religions and eth- Laden’s al-Qaeda moved its operations the northern half of Africa in recent years, nicities; and have few educational and from Afghanistan to Sudan and the American support to local security forces economic opportunities. Most former Egyptian Islamic Jihad movement engi- had become routine. This time, though, extremists interviewed for the UN report neered the bloody 1998 bombings of the something went badly wrong. After meet- mentioned employment as their most im- U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya. ing local leaders in the small town of Ton- mediate need. Like inner city gangs in the By 2006, East Africa’s extremism prob- go Tongo, the patrol was ambushed by United States, joining an extremist insur- lem grew much worse as a militant orga- around 50 heavily armed militants. A 30 gency often is a way to make living while nization known as al-Shabaab emerged minute engagement left four U.S. troops gaining a degree of status and power nor- in Somalia and later began terrorist at- dead and two more wounded. Suddenly mally unavailable to poor youth. tacks in neighboring Uganda and Kenya. Niger, which most Americans had never While marginalization and the lack In recent years, violent Islamic heard of before the attack, became front of opportunity exist in many parts of Af- extremism spread to West Africa and page news, sparking a broad discussion of rica, they are especially dangerous when the transitional zone between the Sa- U.S. security policy in Africa. The ques- weaponized by a violent, revolutionary hara Desert and the savanna regions tion now is whether this will – or should ideology derived from Islam. As in many known as the Sahel. Today al-Qaeda in – lead to a shift in American strategy on parts of the world, Muslims with a limit- the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which is that troubled continent. ed understanding of their religion and a focused on overthrowing the govern-

❚❚Africa’s Extremist Threat For the past few decades, Islamic extremists around the world have ex- ploited local discontent and the psy- ...marginalization and the lack of opportunity ... chological problems of alienated indi- are especially dangerous when weaponized... viduals to stoke revolutionary violence. Africa is particularly vulnerable. The continent has much to fuel extremism, whether communal tensions; a crush- ing lack of jobs and economic oppor- psychological need for an externally-de- ment of Algeria, has connections or cells tunity, exacerbated in many places by fined purpose in life are particularly sus- throughout North Africa, the Sahel, and climate change; the decay of traditional ceptible to an ideology that gives the ap- West Africa. Boko Haram, which origi- authority structures; and governments pearance of being based on faith. Much nated in Nigeria, now operates in neigh- unconcerned with security and devel- like the Christianity that was turned boring nations like Cameroon, Chad, opment in places distant from the na- into an ideology that inspired Crusad- and Niger. And there are several Islamic tional capital. Africa is, as a 2016 study ers from northern Europe or Spanish State (ISIS) affiliates including the Is- from the influential Center for Strategic conquistadores in earlier times, Islam lamic State of the Greater Sahara which and International Studies put it, “a frag- is a proselytizing religion which can be is thought to have been behind the re- ile region under threat.” distorted for political purposes. cent attack in Niger, and the Islamic

Global Hotspots| inFOCUS 17 State West Africa Province, which split Because U.S. national interests in Africa good governance to take root. If we focus from Boko Haram. are modest and Africa itself, with a pain- on working with our African partners on Of these movements, ISIS has the ful legacy of colonialism, is wary, even developing local solutions to radicaliza- most growth potential in part because hostile toward outsiders influencing re- tion, destabilization, and persistent con- it has established a well-known global gional security, American involvement flict, we will remain the security partner brand with transnational appeal, and in has been small scale and low key, focused of choice for the next decade, all while part because it is effective at online re- mostly on increasing the capability of lo- upholding our American values. Africa, cruiting, giving it access to the rapidly cal security forces. In American military our allies, the U.S., and, indeed, the world expanding pool of young Africans with parlance, Africa is an “economy of force” will benefit from our actions to promote cell phone-based Internet access. theater of operations. stable and effective nation states and de- It is hard, though, to pin down the During the 1990s, Washington de- fense institutions in Africa.” fluid, shifting web of violent extremism veloped modest training and assistance While the United States occasion- in Africa. There are many splinter groups programs to augment the professionalism ally strikes extremists directly using and individual fighters sometimes move of African security forces and help them manned and unmanned aircraft or from one to another. For all of them, arms become more effective at peacekeeping. special operations forces, the core of are readily available, many flowing out of After the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks America’s the light footprint strategy is working Libya after the collapse of Moammar Qa- ddafi’s regime. Like insurgency-based ex- tremist movements around the world, the ...the core of the light footprint strategy is working ones in Africa are also deep into crime, using it to fund operations and attract indirectly through local partners to minimize the recruits. The weakness of local govern- American presence on the ground. ments, police and security forces, and the remoteness of much of the region gives the militants operating space. Luckily none of Africa’s extremists- focus immediately shifted from peace- indirectly through local partners to movements are close to taking over a na- keeping to counter-terrorism. To direct minimize the American presence on the tion or creating a viable “caliphate.” But this fight against extremism the United ground. Over the past few years Niger they can weaken fragile governments, States created the U.S. Africa Command has become particularly important. It is stifle economic growth, attack U.S. and (AFRICOM) and refined its geographi- one of the poorest nations on earth but other Western targets, and create hu- cal focus in Africa, concentrating on is also in one of the world’s most danger- manitarian crises in what is already a the northern half of the continent. The ous neighborhoods, bordering Algeria, desperately poor and environmentally single biggest U.S. military presence is in Libya, Mali, and Nigeria, all struggling precarious part of the world. This has cas- the Horn of Africa but the Pentagon has with Islamic extremism. cading effects: less economic growth and support and advisory programs across While AFRICOM stresses that the opportunity in West Africa and the Sahel the continent in the places where violent United States “does not have an active, di- means more young people attempting to extremism has a foothold. AFRICOM de- rect combat mission in Niger,” it has stated cross the Mediterranean for Europe, po- scribes its strategy as “a light, adaptable that there are around 800 American mili- tentially bringing extremism with them. footprint enabling joint operations, pro- tary personnel there, most involved oper- Today the militants cannot win but tection of U.S. personnel and facilities, ating drone bases. Quietly and out of the African governments cannot eradicate crisis response, and security cooperation” limelight, Niger became a pivotal partner them. The result is a stalemate which which “seeks to disrupt and neutralize in the fight with Islamic extremism. mostly victimizes Africans who are not transnational threats by building African rich or powerful enough to surround partner defense capability and capacity.” ❚❚A Complicated Path Ahead themselves with armed security. According to the 2017 AFRICOM posture In the broadest sense, America’s statement, this is designed to “advance light footprint strategy in Africa is a ❚❚America’s Light Footprint American interests with a combination compromise driven by competing, even Since the end of the Cold War the of strategic patience, targeted invest- contradictory demands. On one hand, United States has considered sub-Saha- ments, and strong partnership to achieve Washington feels that it must do some- ran Africa a region with great economic shared security objectives and maintain thing to blunt extremism and help Afri- and political promise but one that needs our long-term approach, which contrib- can nations victimized by it. On the oth- some assistance with security to reach it. ute to the conditions for development and er hand, neither Americans nor Africans

18 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 A Light Footprint in a Hot Spot: America’s Fight in AfricaSTEVEN METZ:

U.S. Army Africa Sgt. 1st Class Grady Hyatt leads an after-action review with soldiers of the Ghana Army in 2011. (Photo: U.S. Army) want extensive U.S. military involve- allies prove inept, brutal, corrupt, or the October fight in Niger or if one of ment. Thus the light footprint strategy is simply uninterested in taking the mea- America’s African partners turns brutal, an effort to do something while limiting sures needed to eliminate the political even genocidal. This matters greatly be- costs and minimizing the chances of be- and economic problems that breed ex- cause in a conflict like the one with Islamic ing drawn in more deeply. tremism, then the United States fails. extremists, bad things invariably happen. Like all compromises, this is far This is an enduring dilemma since local Today America’s indirect, low foot- from perfect. U.S. troops helping Af- governments often resist deep political print counter-extremism strategy in Af- rican security forces have limited sup- and economic reform because national rica is the best option available. Whether port, particularly in terms of airpower elites have a vested personal interest in it can be sustained long enough to work- and medical evacuation. The October the existing system. This means that or whether strategic success is even pos- fight in Niger showed the danger of America’s partners often welcome secu- sible—remains to be seen. Until a few that. In places with a more extensive rity assistance but not political advice. months ago most Americans had never U.S. presence like the Iraq/Syria theater For all of these reasons, the low foot- heard of Niger but they may hear more of or Afghanistan, reinforcements, close print strategy is not a path to victory over it in the future. Along the way other Af- air support and medical evacuation are extremism but a way to contain and man- rican nations, little known in the United normally minutes away. In Niger, it was age it. While this is realistic in today’s po- States, may make headlines in the global hours. That amplifies the danger that litical context, Americans don’t normally conflict with violent Islamic extremism. U.S. forces face during counter extrem- think of security in terms of threat man- ism missions in Africa and increases agement but rather as winning and losing. STEVEN METZ, Ph.D., is Direc- the chances of something going wrong. Success—victory—is defined as elimi- tor of Research and Research Profes- Since the low footprint strategy fo- nating enemies. The question is whether sor of National Security Affairs at the cuses on augmenting the capabilities of American policymakers and opinion U.S. Army War College Strategic Stud- African governments and security forc- shapers will adjust to and accept the idea ies Institute (SSI). This article does not es, the United States can be no more suc- of threat management in Africa and calm represent the official position of the cessful than these partners. If America’s the public when bad things happen – like U.S. Army or U.S. Army War College.

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 19 Around the World in 40 Minutes An inFOCUS Interview with Doug Lamborn Representative Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.), represents one of the country’s most military- intensive congressional districts. A protector of American military capability and veterans’ services, he serves on the House Armed Services Committee and its Strategic Forces and Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittees, overseeing our nation’s strategic weapons, ballistic missile defense, space programs, and Department of Energy national security programs. On the committee, he helps to ensure our nation is properly prepared for any missile or nuclear attacks. inFOCUS editor Shoshana Bryen met with him in late December.

inFOCUS: Starting with Iran, means that by default, Iran and Russia, able to help them manage the aftermath, What are the implications of a and bad actors like ISIS, will continue to and we told them that. But despite that corridor over the top of Saudi have a larger role than they should. mistake we should arm them, because Arabia, Jordan and Israel to they are a reliable and brave ally, and they the Mediterranean Sea? iF: Do you think the American have the potential to continue to be a mod- public would support a con- erate force in the area. They’ve done much Mr. Lamborn: I’m very concerned about tinuing military deployment in good for us in the past and they have the the possibility of a land bridge for the Syria? potential to continue doing much good for Iranians. The majority of weapons Iran us in the future. So we should strengthen is bringing to Syria – and on to Hezbol- Lamborn: Yes, if President Trump and our ties with the Kurds. lah and Lebanon – presently come by air other people in the administration were and sometimes by sea; those are slower to make a case for it, I think a limited in- iF: Is there a way that Congress and susceptible to interruption. With crease in our efforts there would certain- can step in on some of this? the ability to use trucks over land, the ly be acceptable to the American people. huge influx of missiles, for instance, on What the American people don’t want is Lamborn: We’ve put language into the the northern border of Israel, will only another Iraq at this point in time, but no National Defense Authorization Act get worse. Importing fighters will be- one’s talking about that. (NDAA) addressing this particular is- come easier. Importing weapons for He- The administration has a lot of sue. There has been money specifically zbollah and other fighters that could be latitude here, given that the American earmarked for the Kurds, for at least the used against Israel will only get worse. people understand that Iran is a seri- past three years. The issue has been how So, I’m concerned that our admin- ous problem in the region and America much of it actually makes it to them and istration, even though it’s doing many shouldn’t allow a vacuum that lets other how the weapons deliveries are actually good things – certainly much better people step in by default. accomplished. The problem is that aid than the previous administration – still to the Kurds flows through Baghdad – seems to lack a consistent and coher- iF: Which is also partly the and Baghdad doesn’t always deliver in a ent serious strategy for that part of the Kurdish question. They are our timely or complete way. world. That’s partly understandable be- great allies on the ground, but cause the Syrian issue is so complicated we appear to be withdrawing iF: But you’re not going to let and there are no easy or good solutions. from them as well. this go, right? But to take 400 Marines away seems to be a step in the wrong direction, even Lamborn: The Kurds are a great Ameri- Lamborn: No, no, no. We need to make though I know we can use those Marines can ally and should be supported as such. sure that the Kurds remain American al- to good effect wherever they end up. It was a mistake for them to push for an lies and that they have a working ability I am concerned that we have not yet election recently because the United States to fight against some of the region’s most arrived at the best Syrian strategy. Which – their primary international ally – wasn’t malign forces.

20 inFOCUS | Winter 2018

The Syrian Arab regime wanted to go to war. They had plans for war. INTERVIEW: iF: Do those malign forces in- clude Turkey?

Lamborn: Turkey is a NATO ally, and Representative Doug Lamborn we should not gratuitously insult or do things that harm Turkey’s interest. They are almost paranoid about the Kurds in their country, or the possibility of a Kurd- ish state – particularly in Syria, where the Turkish-Syrian border isn’t always prop- erly demarcated and there are Kurdish tribes on both sides. They didn’t have quite the same problem with the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq, where the border was more clearly defined. We have to tread carefully. I’m an optimist who believes that if the administration works hard enough it can have a policy for Syria that incorporates Kurdish assistance while not offending the Turks, and in fact using them as an ally as well. That’s my hope. iF: You’re going back to your original point here, which was that we don’t seem to have a co- Congressman Doug Lamborn (R-CO) herent Syria policy, which makes it harder to do these things. the world would point to other things as countries. At the first opportunity, I’m being worse. In fact, the collapse of the sure each of those countries will aggres- Lamborn: Yes. And there are so many USSR was a blessing. sively push away from Russia. And the trouble spots in the world right now. Some But Vladimir Putin views the United United States should help those countries. of them are newly developed, others are States as a competitor and he’s struggling there because of Barack Obama’s inatten- to have a Russian resurgence in places like iF: That was my next question. tion. But we have to let the administration the Middle East. He is very opportunistic; What’s a good role for us? have time to fill out all of these strategies. I don’t see him having a grand strategy in The fact that there isn’t a Syria strategy far-flung places of the world. But at best Lamborn: The United States should help yet does not discourage me but I do want he wants to be a player, and at worst he those countries, especially Ukraine, re- them to come up with one shortly. will be opposing U.S. interests. sist Russian aggression and restore their His worst efforts from our point of territorial integrity, and continue allow- iF: How do you think Russia sees view and that of our NATO allies, are in ing them to pursue a path toward Euro- us? Does it think that we’re an the states neighboring Russia. The inva- pean and Western integration. They are adversary, does it think we’re sion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, the entitled to choose the direction of their a competitor? invasion of Georgia, interference in Mol- future, even if it isn’t the future Russia dova, all of these things are ways that he would want them to have. So, we should Lamborn: The answer to that centers on wants to keep influence in former Soviet allow for loan guarantees and support, how Vladimir Putin views us because satellites. That’s actually what he meant including supplying lethal aid to Ukraine. he has so much power that his per- about the catastrophe – it was a catastro- sonal views pretty much carry the day phe of losing control of millions of ethnic iF: We don’t provide lethal aid in Russia. He wants to restore lost Rus- Russians who became citizens of those at the moment? sian grandeur and prestige. He views newly independent countries. He wants the downfall of the USSR as the biggest them back under Russian sovereignty. But Lamborn: No. We supply non-lethal help, geopolitical calamity of the 20th centu- he’s doing it in a way that does not win the but as the Ukrainian president said when ry – while pretty much everyone else in hearts and minds of the people in those he came and spoke here, “We appreciate

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 21 meals and blankets. But we need arms.” United States is taking this very seriously. demands to stop expanding American- That was several years ago but it still hasn’t So even though we don’t have permanent provided missile defense on the peninsula. changed. With the right kind of pressure, bases in the three Baltic countries, we do I think U.S. missile defense equipment is and Western assistance, the Ukrainians have a very robust presence. the best way of addressing the North Kore- could make life very difficult for the Rus- an problem in the short run. And you can’t sians, even though the Russians are a su- iF: China clearly rolled out the talk about China without talking about perior military force. The Ukrainians are red carpet for the president. North Korea and vice versa, which is why very brave, and they are resisting Russian They wanted him to be happy. Un- I’m bringing up North Korea. encroachment, but if their pressure was to derneath that, do they see us as China needs to go beyond just words become even stronger then Russia would an adversary, or as a competitor? and it has to show by its actions that it’s pay a higher price in political perception back home. China needs to go beyond just words and it has iF: As happened to them in Af- to show by its actions that it’s putting pressure on ghanistan. And I assume that the same would hold true for North Korea. the Baltic states?

Lamborn: Yes, the Baltic states are very Lamborn: Both. There are elements, per- putting pressure on North Korea. The UN small but they’re very brave and they’re haps in the military or intelligence that is unable to do very much and what little it well-equipped for their size. And they are see us an adversary. But at a minimum, can do it’s already pretty much done. The resisting Russian aggression, and they’re many or most will see us as a competitor. United States can continue financial sanc- totally aligned with the West. I believe we I’m hopeful we can reach the point in the tions and should strengthen those. And have an excellent working relationship future where we cooperate on many is- we should press the Chinese for economic with Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. sues including, but going beyond, trade. sanctions, especially energy to North Ko- The Chinese are dead-set on expanding rea, both coal and oil. But what the United iF: Do you think NATO would their influence in places like the South States can do that no one else can do is go to war on behalf of Latvia? China Sea, and they’re using methods like give South Korea THAAD missile de- expanding and building upon atolls that fense batteries that will protect South Ko- Lamborn: Yes. Under Article 5, I believe offend everyone in the area and that vio- rea in the event of medium-range missiles we would back up our commitments. An late international norms. They are doing coming from North Korea. I think South invasion of one of is an invasion of all. things that are territorially very aggressive. Korea should go further in this direction. In response, the United States must We’re already doing this with Japan. iF: I’m happy to hear you say continue to strengthen ties with our allies that you think we’d be where in the region, and I think the administra- iF: And if we could get China we’re supposed to be. tion is doing a very good job of this. This to agree to that it would be a includes Japan, South Korea, and the Phil- huge step for China. Lamborn: Yes, and as a matter of fact, I ippines. And we also need to include Aus- was in two Baltic States in August. We tralia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and others. Lamborn: China believes that the ra- saw American troops training and work- dars of these missile defense installa- ing with the host countries. Some of those iF: Does it include Taiwan? tions are looking far into China. That is troops were from Fort Carson in my con- simply not true. We don’t. We are only gressional district – the 4th Infantry Di- Lamborn: It should definitely include Tai- concerned with North Korean activity, vision. And that does two things. It gives wan. Obviously, it’s in a unique category. and deterring that. the NATO allies a greater awareness of There have been a few hiccups with what roadblocks there might be, some- South Korea. I’m not convinced it was iF: On to the other side of times literally, in deploying in the case helpful to question our free trade agree- the world and to happier of an emergency or crisis. For instance, ment with South Korea during this time of news. there’s no better de- if you find out that a bridge is too nar- sensitivity. And I think that the new South fender of Israel than you. row for tanks to cross, the host country Korean leader, who leans more to the left Can you talk about ways can fix that problem. Second, it sends a than the previous South Korean adminis- that Israel is a helpful ally strong message to the Russians that the tration, was too quick to bow to Chinese to the United States?

22 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 INTERVIEW: for human rights issues. But we should not do that to the point where we lose our ability to have a working relationship. And we should not do that to the point Representative Doug Lamborn where they lose the ability to pursue their own interests. And like many have said, and Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer said, the choice is you either have the military running Egypt or you have the Muslim Brotherhood running Egypt. I’d rather have the military running Egypt. I have no problem with that.

iF: Does it worry you that the Russians are now going to be using Egypt for an air basing facility?

Lamborn: It bothers me to see the Russians exerting an expanding influence in the Syrian President Bashar al-Asad and Russian President Vladimir Putin at Khmeimim Middle East anywhere, including Egypt. Air Base in Syria. (Photo: Kremlin.ru) Lamborn: I really want to see America most of the money we give to Israel comes iF: Last Israel question. Peace and Israel working together on tunnel de- right back to us through Israeli purchases process? Is there one? Can there tection and destruction. And we’ve made of American equipment and technology – be one? Should there be one? some steps in that direction, especially on 75 percent right now. It’s a great working the funding side, and I’ve been instrumen- relationship. Lamborn: Things have reached a point tal in initiating that in our legislation. But where the next step should be taken by those resources could be better deployed. iF: I knew there was good news the Palestinians. Israel has made so many However, Israel has detected some tunnels in this interview somewhere. concessions in the past, and they have and recently blew up a tunnel on the Israeli And that’s it. What should we not been reciprocated. Rather than push side of the border with the Gaza Strip, and say about Egypt? Israel to make further concessions that it killed a bunch of Palestinians who were endanger its security, we should turn to doing things they shouldn’t have been do- Lamborn: For 40 years, since the historic the Palestinians and say, “It’s your turn ing. I don’t think anyone on the side of the visit by Anwar Sadat to the Knesset, Israel to make a concession.” They should do West will mourn their passing. and Egypt have been at peace. And those things like recognize the right of Israel When it comes to missile defense, Is- are the two most powerful countries in to exist as a Jewish state; a legitimate and rael did a great job with developing Iron the region. It was a cold peace at times, permanent part of the region. And there Dome and the U.S. taxpayer and people in but what has emerged is a wonderful and are other efforts. The Palestinian Author- Congress, myself included, have been very significant development. And they seem ity should stop incitement, stop glorifying supportive and have given large amounts to be, especially under the leadership of terrorism, stop educating the next gen- of U.S. aid to help that materialize and President [Abdel Fattah] al-Sisi, continu- eration to be anti-Jewish and anti-Israel. progress. Israel has shared that technology ing their strong and positive relationship. My legislation in the House, the Tay- and I certainly anticipate that we can use lor Force Act, which Lindsey Graham is that technology to protect our own inter- iF: Should the United States be carrying in the Senate, has great bipartisan ests overseas. We don’t have a missile threat helping Egypt more than it is? support. Taylor Force is a way of inducing on our borders, fortunately, but we do have the Palestinians to stop incitement by re- troops and allies that are threatened, across Lamborn: We should help him even ducing American budget aid to the Pal- the ocean, as we just discussed. more than we do now. The Trump ad- estinian Authority as long as it is paying Israel has been a great partner, shar- ministration is doing that better than the salaries to terrorists and to their families. ing technology while we have helped them previous administration. There is a place The Taylor Force Act passed the House on fund further batteries for Iron Dome. And to criticize an authoritarian government December 5, and is heading to the Senate.

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 23 The Palestinians need to take tangible The previous administration didn’t [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] is steps and make concessions on their part. do anything to make Venezuela pay for that it gives them a nuclear weapon as There is strong bipartisan support its human rights abuses. I’m not sure the soon as a few years. As soon as the requi- for each of these things in Congress, Trump administration has finalized its site time goes by – the sunset clauses kick which is encouraging. Sometimes we approach to Venezuela, so I don’t know in after 10 to 15 years, and we’re counting disagree on how strongly to exert Con- what that will look like yet, but we need down from 2015. gress’s authority or ability to control to assist the pro-democracy forces in that This is the position that [Israeli the purse strings. And different admin- country. There is a large group of Ven- Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu istrations may or may not cooperate so ezuelans who know democratic norms, has taken. The Iranian deal, the JCPOA, much with Congress. Unfortunately, the who have practiced them and who are gives a nuclear weapon to Iran – it’s just Obama administration did not cooper- bravely fighting the current regime. But a matter of time. And we can’t let that ate very much. The Taylor Force Act is they’re at risk of falling even further un- happen. Their history and their track an example of Congress taking a step in der the heavy hand of oppression. record should make it clear that if they the right direction. One of the really bad Venezuelan President Nicolas Madu- have that power to hold over the heads of elements about those payments is that ro is violating all norms of democracy by their neighbors, including but not only they were structured by the PA so that you get a higher payment if you’ve killed more Jews, and more Israelis. That’s just Taylor Force is a way of inducing the Palestinians to reprehensible. Taylor Force wasn’t either stop incitement by reducing American budget aid to Jewish or Israeli. He was an American visitor who happened to be on Israeli the Palestinian Authority as long as they are paying soil, and that’s why he was targeted. So salaries to terrorists... hopefully that tragic story gets the atten- tion of Americans.

iF: let’s go to Latin America the way he’s cracking down on the pro- Israel, or the fact that they like to use next. What can the United democracy forces in his country, and the proxies and give weapons to proxies and States do, if anything, to be way he’s consolidating power in his own try to avoid having fingerprints, it’s just helpful to the people of Ven- hands. Some things he’s doing are even an untenable situation. I applaud Presi- ezuela who live under really worse than what Hugo Chavez was doing. dent Trump for refusing to certify in the difficult circumstances? I’m hopeful that we’ll see a better latest round that Iran is in compliance. policy toward Venezuela. There are so As a member of Congress, I look for- Lamborn: Venezuela is a problem not many troubled spots in the world right ward to working with the administration only because of its socialist government, now, starting with North Korea of course, very soon to flesh out what that means. At but also because of its relationship with and Iran as well, that I don’t think we’ve a minimum, we will be imposing stronger Iran. At the same time, I’m encouraged yet seen the administration be able to sanctions. The administration has already by the fact that the Trump administra- turn its full attention to Latin America. been doing that, sanctioning individuals tion has reversed some of the Cuba poli- and companies and banks for behavior cy that Barack Obama started. President iF: Back to where we started. related not only to nuclear capabilities, Obama made concessions to the Cubans Iran–this time its nuclear ca- but to missile capabilities, terrorism and without getting anything in return. pabilities. What are we sup- human rights. Where we go from there That’s horrible diplomacy, and it’s a bad posed to do about this? may depend on how Iran responds. But in example in all of Latin America. Because any case, we’ve just started reversing some Venezuela has a close relationship with Lamborn: You saved the easiest for last. of the bad effects of the Obama adminis- and gets some assistance from Cuba, it Once again, I’m hopeful that the tration. Iran is a powerful and malignant also will see how the United States in- Trump administration will carry through country. And so obviously it has to be teracts with Cuba and draw its own con- on its good words, both Mr. Trump’s posi- treated with a lot of caution. But they can’t clusions. I’m hopeful that we won’t just tions while he was campaigning, and the be allowed to own nuclear weapons. be stronger in our demands for Cuban things administration officials have said reform – I think that’s coming – but that since January. We can’t let Iran develop a iF: Thank you, on behalf of the we will also be stronger toward Venezu- nuclear weapon; that’s simply the bottom Jewish Policy Center and the ela’s government. line. And the trouble with the JCPOA readers of inFOCUS Magazine.

24 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 The South China Sea: Flashpoints for U.S. Interests by HARRY HALEM

“All nations want peace, but they conflict. Great power wars are seldom China’s political order rests upon want a peace that suits them.” – Ad- unintentional. Nevertheless, they typi- contradiction. State-capitalist authori- miral Jacky Fisher (Royal Navy), 1894 cally begin unplanned – Thucydides’ tarianism requires selective liberaliza- account of the Peloponnesian War dedi- tion and engagement with the inter- nternational politics rest upon a con- cates significant time to this fact. Thus, national economy while preserving tradiction. Systemically hierarchical assessing the dynamics of this flashpoint overall centralization. This policy’s ma- organization is nearly impossible. is critical to projecting potential Sino- terial benefits have enabled its success. IDespite the universalist ambitions of American escalation. Consistent economic growth has staved imperial powers, the geographical and The South China Sea (SCS) in par- off calls for internal political liberaliza- material scope of the world precludes a ticular requires careful study. Three as- tion and deeper economic reforms. Nev- globally legitimate international order. pects comprise a proper assessment of ertheless, the present Chinese system has Nevertheless, one can identify multiple SCS conflict potential. First, a review of weak spots. The potential for a public “orders” throughout history, both local, great power interests in the SCS reveals debt overhang due to state involvement as in classical Greece, imperial China, the specific relevance of that potential in market activity could stifle economic medieval Italy, and feudal Japan, and flashpoint to broader Sino-American growth, as Japan experienced in its 1990s global, in particular the present Anglo- rivalry. Second, an account of previous recession. Moreover, China’s 1.4 billion American system. Chinese expansionist efforts, and re- people dually enable Chinese economic But order is precarious. System- transforming great power war is its greatest enemy. The most materially ro- Consistent economic growth has staved off calls bust agents in a system can, if commit- for internal political liberalization and deeper ted, smash an international order with their raw power. Such confrontations economic reforms. characterize international history, with the Napoleonic Wars and World Wars serving as recent examples. sponses by regional actors, is necessary growth and make extremely high energy The shape of these systemic con- to understand the type of potential es- demands. China has lacked sufficient flicts is readily apparent. Athenian na- calation. Third, a review of the balance domestic energy reserves to support its val power and imperial ambition made of forces indicates the strong incentives economy since the mid-1980s. Although it an adversary of Greece’s traditional for limited Chinese aggression. These coal still provides the majority of China’s hegemon, Sparta. German power made aspects combine to demonstrate the gap electrical power, and nuclear power in- it Britain’s natural 20th-century oppo- between American deterrence goals and vestments have paid dividends, the Peo- nent. Similarly, present power dynam- present strategic posture. ples Republic of China (PRC) remains 60 ics between the United States and China percent oil import dependent. predispose the two countries to rivalry. ❚❚Dynamics, Interests & SCS This energy deficit explains the Not only does strength balance strength, The Korean Peninsula and East SCS’s relevance. One quarter of the but rising states also stress the static dis- China Sea are alternative potential flash- world’s seaborne oil passes through the tribution of power a hegemon imposes. points to the SCS. However, the SCS’s Strait of Malacca on the SCS’s western In the prelude to great power con- conflict potential is higher because of edge – 80 percent of Chinese maritime frontation, one must understand both the region’s direct connection to China’s oil imports transit the strait. Beijing’s the international competitors and po- energy insecurity and likely plans for One Belt - One Road initiative through tential flashpoints that can instigate economic dominance. Central Asia will offset some of China’s

Global Hotspots| inFOCUS 25 maritime oil import dependence, but for uninterrupted flow of goods internation- These overlapping claims effec- at least the next decade, a hostile power ally – freedom of navigation as a norma- tively make the entirety of the SCS a controlling the SCS would pose a threat tive goal is derived from this positive legally contested zone. Competition to Chinese economic security. Addition- benefit. Declarations of good faith will centers upon reefs and archipelagos, ally, the SCS holds at least 11 billion bar- not ensure China respects this principle, most importantly the Spratly and Para- rels of oil and 250 trillion cubic feet of making the risk of Chinese domination cel Islands and Scarborough Shoal. If natural gas. Chinese control of the SCS, of the SCS too high to allow. Addition- China is to fulfill its aim of controlling the SCS, it must compensate for its infe- rior initial position – China’s coastline Whether China’s insecurity or desire for domination curves northeast from Hainan, away from the maritime chokepoints it cov- drives it to control the South China Sea, its ets. Military installations on the archi- stranglehold there would give it control over 50 pelagos throughout the SCS, in particu- percent of the world’s maritime trade. lar the Spratly and Paracel Islands and Scarborough Shoal, would allow China to police all traffic heading northeast from the Strait of Malacca, descend on therefore, supports political stability by ally, Chinese control would pressure the Strait in the event of conflict, and alleviating the country’s energy pres- American lines of communication be- control oil flows towards energy-import sures, while hostile control of the SCS tween its Euro-Mediterranean, Middle dependent Japan. gives external powers significant lever- Eastern, and Asian military forces and To this end, China has engaged in age in any crisis scenario. Moreover, regional allies. Just as Chinese interest in an increasingly assertive campaign of fulfilling President Xi Jinping’s “China the SCS consistently leads to attempted maritime expansion. Sporadic incidents Dream” requires continuing economic expansion, American regional interest occurred from the 1970s onward, includ- growth, as returning China to its “his- consistently dictates countering China’s ing two naval skirmishes between China torical” global position would entail cre- position. This persistence of overlapping and Vietnam. However, 2012 marked a ating a state that produced one-third of and opposing interests makes the SCS a turning point in Chinese policy – since global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). likely Sino-American flashpoint. then Beijing has actively sought to create Whether China’s long-term goal is re- faits accomplis that preclude responses to gime security or reclaiming great power ❚❚Encroachments and Responses its acquisitions, or to stoke tensions and status, it is clear that energy flows, and Alongside the great powers, Viet- provoke Philippine or Vietnamese esca- therefore the SCS, will be relevant, and nam and the Philippines serve as the lation. Chinese island construction is an that consolidating control over the area primary SCS regional actors, while Tai- example of the former approach. Focus- is in Beijing’s interest. wan and Malaysia have relevance. Legal- ing its efforts on the Spratlys, China cre- Conversely, the United States has a ly, SCS disputes center around Chinese ated 3,200 acres of land between 2013 and material interest in denying China con- assertion of its territorial rights over an 2016 by piling sand and concrete atop trol over the SCS’ trade flows and energy area enclosed by the “Nine-Dash Line.” reefs throughout the archipelago. reserves. Despite fluctuations in relative The 1951 Treaty of San Francisco, which Of particular note are the Chinese power, America has maintained its posi- officially ended hostilities between Japan installations at Fiery Cross, Mischief, and tion of international hegemon since the and the Allied Powers, terminated Japa- Subi Reefs. Each artificial island sports a end of the Second World War. China, nese claims to all SCS territories. How- military-grade runway, while Fiery Cross in entente with Russia, Iran, and North ever, the treaty indicated no successors and Mischief in particular field anti-air Korea, threatens the Anglo-American to Japan’s claims, leading to the Repub- and anti-ship missile batteries, deep-water international order that provided the lic of China (Taiwan) and the People’s ports, and living facilities for permanent framework for post-World War II inter- Republic of China (mainland) claiming personnel. The 2012 Scarborough Shoal national relations. sovereignty over the entirety of the area. and 2014 HD-931 standoffs exemplify Whether China’s insecurity or de- This demarcation line directly conflicts the latter strategy. The first incident was sire for domination drives it to control with Vietnamese, Philippine, Indone- sparked when Chinese ships prevented the South China Sea, its stranglehold sian, Malaysian, and Bruneian Exclusive the Philippine Navy from arresting Chi- there would give it control over 50 per- Economic Zones (EEZ) as demarcated nese fishermen accused of illegally collect- cent of the world’s maritime trade. by the UN Convention on the Law of the ing coral and sharks. China instigated the American power is predicated on the Sea (UNCLOS). second standoff by moving the HD-931

26 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 HARRY HALEM: The South China Sea: A Flashpoint

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China on March 19, 2017. (Photo: State Department) oil rig to within disputed waters near the considering the preponderance of pow- restraints have done little to change Chi- Paracel Islands, and barred Vietnamese er China can bring to bear. The BRP na’s posture. Malaysia and Taiwan suffer interference by deploying 46 Navy and Sierra Madre, a 73-year-old Tank Land- from the same issues as Vietnam and the Coast Guard ships along with a number ing Ship run aground on Second Thom- Philippines, although their interests are of fishing boats in support. This combina- as Shoal, and its handful of Philippine confined to specific sectors of the SCS. tion of approaches indicates that China Marines, is the Philippine response to hopes to either create facts on the ground China’s Spratlys expansion. ❚❚American Involvement that cannot be overturned without signifi- Moreover, China’s physical domi- The present balance of forces cre- cant escalation, or prompt an escalation nance allows it to diversify its SCS assets, ates major incentives for Chinese es- from one of its smaller adversaries that forcing Vietnam and the Philippines to calation. China benefits from a lack of justifies a major military response. overstretch their resources. The China direct American regional engagement. Small states typically have limited Coast Guard (CCG), rather than the Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and options when confronted by territori- Peoples Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN), Taiwan all have an interest in coordinat- ally acquisitive great powers. Like the has recently been the tool of choice for ing their responses to China’s expansion. classical Greek Poleis of Melos and Beijing to assert its sovereignty over However, these actors have not been able Plataea, they must choose either sur- disputed South China Sea waters. Chi- to resolve their own territorial disputes. render or destruction absent external na’s regional competitors are forced to Present regional organizations, namely intervention. Vietnam and the Philip- choose between attempting to match ASEAN, have not significantly increased pines are trapped by this same dilem- the CCG’s operational tempo with their cohesion – cracks have appeared between ma. Ceding ground to China directly own Coast Guards, and risk being pro- the major players in the SCS dispute limits their freedom of movement – too gressively outclassed, or employ naval and disengaged states like Thailand. The many capitulations, and China will be forces, and potentially prompt an esca- United States can serve as an external bal- able to dictate Vietnamese and Philip- lation. The Philippines attempted to le- ancer, facilitating coordination between pine trade and military policy. But a gally outmaneuver China through the South Asian states and bolstering their confrontation is equally undesirable, United Nations, but international legal efforts with its own military capabilities.

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 27 China has developed Fiery Cross Reef to include a 10,000 runway. (Photo: Google Earth / Digital Globe)

Despite the Trump administra- cannot be expected to restrain them- Heavy Industries (HHI) and one-ship tion’s significantly more aggressive selves forever. The involvement of a vola- corvette buy from the ROK Navy have rhetoric, American SCS policy has re- tile personality like Philippine President yet to be delivered. Thus, Philippine sur- mained remarkably similar since 2014. Rodrigo Duterte increases the possibil- face combatants are at best 40 years old. The United States has responded to ity of a violent response to the next ma- By contrast, the PLAN South Seas Chinese expansion with its regional jor PRC provocation. Despite his pre- Fleet’s Type-052D, Type-054, and Type- military assets, conducting Freedom of vious pro-China rhetoric, Duterte has 056 surface combatants are some of the Navigation Operations (FONOPS) in increased Philippine military presence world’s most modern warships. Even disputed maritime areas and occasional in the Spratlys, fortifying nine islands in its eight Ming-class submarines, all of flyovers of disputed reefs and islands. the archipelago. which are based on early Cold War de- Washington has also diplomatically Armed escalation between the PLA signs, would pose a significant threat supported de-escalation attempts, while and Vietnamese or Philippine Armed to Philippine naval forces. Moreover, pubicly rebuking China’s territorial ag- Forces would likely entail the over- China’s island-based air assets would gression. However, this has done little to whelming application of force by the significantly outnumber the Philippine curb China’s efforts. Chinese against the relevant adversary. Air Force’s 12 FA-50 fighter aircraft. Without an increased American presence, China will remain free to bully smaller regional powers, forcing them to choose between maintaining the status Despite the Trump administration’s significantly quo and accepting the erosion of their more aggressive rhetoric, American SCS policy has territory, or increasing the level of risk by escalating. History demonstrates the remained remarkably similar since 2014. low risk of “accidental escalation” – the 1988 Black Sea Bumping incident serves as an example. However, that does not decrease the chances of conflict. The The balance of forces heavily favors Vietnam fares slightly better. It crowded air and sea-lanes and overlap- China. The Philippine Navy fields three supplements secondhand Soviet sur- ping territorial claims in the SCS cre- former Hamilton-class Coast Guard face combatants and eight Kilo-class ate a number of areas in which China Cutters and a WWII-era Canon-class submarines with a handful of modern could provoke a crisis by declaring an destroyer as its large surface combat- frigates, like its three Gepard 3.9-class Air Defense Identification Zone or vio- ants, supplementing them with second- ships. Vietnamese air defense capabili- lating Vietnamese and Philippine fish- hand minesweepers and corvettes. Its ties are much more robust than those ing rights. Vietnam and the Philippines two-ship frigate purchase from Hyundai of the Philippines – its 46 Su-27’s and

28 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 HARRY HALEM: The South China Sea: A Flashpoint Su-30’s combined with surplus Soviet decisive confrontation between China before an American response. Two poli- and modern Israeli air defense systems and its SCS rivals. By contrast, present cy choices would help bridge this pres- would prove difficult for Chinese forces American disengagement only encour- ent gap. First, forward-basing American to overwhelm quickly. Nevertheless, ages Chinese aggression. surface combatants in the SCS would en- China has the definitive upper hand in However, engagement must be de- able persistent American presence, pro- escalatory situations. fined. Deterrence, the harmonization of vide high-end capabilities to outclassed However, China’s reliance on artifi- military strategy and political goals to friendly states, and serve as a tripwire cial islands is a critical strategic liability prevent conflict, is inexact. It requires to explicitly demonstrate the signifi- in any long-term conflict. In a brief con- matching two blunt instruments, and cance of the SCS to American interests. frontation, these forward bases provide communicating intention to another ac- Second, greater cooperation with, and China with the quantitative superiority tor that may not interpret signals properly. funding for, allied coast guards would it would need to neutralize Vietnamese Considering these difficulties, the present give regional partners the ability to push and Philippine forces. But small island gap between American force structure back against Chinese expansion in kind bases are vulnerable absent absolute sea and political goals enables conflict. without unduly risking escalation. control. American submarines could At present, the balance of forces fa- prevent naval resupply of artificial is- vors the United States in an extended ❚❚Conclusion - Long-Term lands, or even destroy their foundations conflict. China’s long-range missiles, Resolve with well-placed torpedoes or explo- swarming surface combatants, and quan- Any analysis of great power conflict sive charges. Special Operations Forces titative superiority in airframes may push is naturally pessimistic – the analyst’s (SOF) detachments could be deployed to American forces out of strike range of goal is to maximize one party’s advan- neutralize smaller garrisons and harass Chinese forces in the SCS. However, the tage in a worst-case scenario. However, larger ones. Long-range Chinese mis- U.S. Navy’s Carrier Strike Groups would the United States must realize that sim- siles can hit American aircraft carriers, be able to impose a “far blockade” on the ply recognizing the challenges it faces but long-range American missiles could Strait of Malacca, choking off China’s oil will not prevent war. Paradoxically, the strike airfields more easily by virtue of supply, and forcing the PLAN to operate best way to preclude conflict is to pre- their immobility. without cover from Chinese-occupied is- pare for it. Military strength, rather than Absent increased American pres- lands. The U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing open discussion between China and the ence, SCS conflicts are likely to be brief, lacks the flexibility it had during the Cold United States, can prevent a cataclysmic considering the PLA’s material prepon- War, while its surface force has become confrontation. Sufficient funding is crit- derance over its likely adversaries. Such defensive as its numbers have declined. ical to create a U.S. Navy robust enough a situation clearly serves Chinese inter- Nevertheless, this strategy plays to Amer- to prevent escalation in the SCS, and in ests. More robust American presence ica’s strengths, just as Britain’s North Sea Asia more broadly. in the SCS would directly remedy this blockade eroded Imperial German power Nevertheless, that strength is mean- present imbalance. In addition, the U.S. during World War I. ingless absent the political will to main- tain and use it. This fact has not only historical, objective support, but also ethical value. America’s goal is not sur- At present, the balance of forces favors the United vival and domination, but also the main- States in an extended conflict. tenance of the democratic experiment it first spearheaded over two centuries ago. American leaders and citizens would do well to remember the words of Athens’ could likely engender cooperation be- Despite the efficacy of such a policy greatest citizen, Pericles, to his country- tween Vietnam, the Philippines, Malay- in the long-term, its short-term blind men after a year of conflict with Sparta: sia, and Taiwan over China policy. The spots create serious deterrence gaps. “…knowing that happiness requires states strategically relevant to the SCS Defensive naval strategies are successful freedom, and freedom requires courage, lack the historical enmity toward each over time, but do not threaten to deliver do not shrink from the dangers of war.” other that hampers Japanese-Korean immediate offensive punishment. China (Thucydides, 2.43 2-4) military cooperation. This would help remains free to gradually erode Philip- ease coordination among the coun- pine and Vietnamese sovereignty, and HARRY HALEM is a student at the Uni- tries. Increased American involvement may still opt for a brief confrontation versity of St Andrews, reading MA (Hons) would decrease the likelihood of a brief, in the SCS if it can consolidate its gains International Relations and Philosophy.

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 29 A Strategy to Achieve U.S. Mid-East Objectives by ADMIRAL JAMES LYONS USN (RET.)

ven with the defeat of ISIS in both weapons capability since the late 1980s, Sykes-Picot Treaty is dead. We must rec- Iraq and Syria, we are far from primarily clandestinely but thanks to the ognize realities on the ground. Neither achieving our overall U.S. objec- Obama administration, with an inter- Iraq nor Syria will ever be able to exer- Etives in the Middle East. The Iranian national veneer of legitimacy. However, cise control over their former sovereign Crescent is clearly expanding and threat- under the Obama administration, this territory. An independent Kurdistan is a ening to encircle our traditional allies and objective was severely undercut with the dagger in the heart of Iranian objectives. friends. Complicating matters is Russia’s five-party, unsigned “Joint Comprehen- • Support and actually lead efforts for resurgence as a power broker, not only in sive Plan of Action” (JCPOA). Regret- regime change in Tehran. Syria and Iran, but also its renewed mili- fully, with North Korea being the off-site • Reinforce our alliances with our re- tary and economic relations with Egypt laboratory for Iran, it must be assumed gional friends and allies. and the emergence of a new jihadist axis including Turkey, Qatar, and Iran. With the killing of the former Ye- Pakistan now sees China as the future dominant meni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, there power in South Asia. is no clear path forward in resolving the Yemen civil war. While Saleh was a di- visive figure, he was also clever enough that Iran already has a nuclear weapon ❚❚Supporting Non-Jihadi Forces to broker a settlement. When he an- capability. Unconfirmed reports that It must be understood that Bagh- nounced an offer to link up with the Sau- North Korea covertly shipped three nu- dad, Beirut, and Damascus are all Ira- dis, it sealed his demise. The recent firing clear warheads to Iran underscores this nian puppet regimes. Hezbollah and of a likely Iranian-made ballistic missile danger. Therefore, our objective now the various Shiite jihadi militia groups by the Houthi rebels at the Riyadh In- must be to prevent Iran from deploying in both the former Iraq and Syria are all ternational Airport and the Saudi royal any nuclear capability against the Unit- proxy militias under the Iranian Revo- court at al-Yamama palace has added a ed States and our allies. lutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)/Qods new dimension to that crisis. Clearly, a • Roll back Iranian geo-strategic he- Force Command. As part of our strat- blockade needs to be set up to intercept gemony in the region. As a first step, egy, we must refuse to cooperate with arms smuggling by Iran. We should also disrupt Iran’s attempt to establish a land them or provide them any support. We assist the Saudi coalition (Egypt, UAE, bridge from Tehran to the Mediterra- need to work with and support the non- Kuwait, Bahrain, and Sudan) to retake nean Sea and Lebanon and disrupt its at- jihadi Sunni forces in the region to con- the Port of Hodeidah, which would be tempts to encircle the Arabian Peninsula front and degrade the Iranian militias. a tremendous psychological blow to the with puppet regimes. We should also work with the Na- Houthi rebels and Iran. • Ensure the survival of Israel. This tional Council of Resistance of Iran will require strengthening the bilateral (NCRI), the largest, oldest and best or- ❚❚Defining U.S. Interests relationship, both diplomatically and ganized of all Iranian opposition groups, With the United States being chal- militarily. as well as with Israel to monitor – and lenged throughout the world, a real- • Ensure freedom of the seas including when the time comes, to destroy - Iran’s istic, disciplined strategy should be keeping open strategic straits, e.g., Hor- clandestine nuclear weapon program. adopted that is based on our core vital muz and Bab-el-Mandeb. This is key to preventing Iran from ac- interest, including: • Support an independent Kurdis- tually deploying its nuclear weapons, • Preventing Iran from achieving nu- tan. Not only were they our loyal allies whether in a test demonstration sce- clear weapons capability has been one in helping us defeat ISIS, but an inde- nario – or an actual attack. We must be of our vital interests. The Iranian re- pendent Kurdistan is key to disrupting prepared to destroy Iran’s nuclear infra- gime has been actively seeking nuclear Iran’s land bridge to Lebanon. The 1916 structure, if necessary.

30 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 ADMIRAL JAMES LYONS USN (RET.): A Strategy to Achieve U.S. Mid-East Objectives We need to intensify the Trump ad- ❚❚Pakistan in Afghanistan China’s global Belt and Road Initiative ministration’s developing relationship As can be seen, the United States (BRI). CPEC is more than economic. It with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We has no core compelling vital national will also help China to control military need to ensure that Crown Prince Mo- security interests in Afghanistan. It is choke points, such as from a likely new hammed bin Salman’s objectives and a primitive, tribal Islamic society and naval base in Gwadar. Its proximity to vision coincide with ours and those of cannot be modernized in any meaning- the Straits of Hormuz, through which our allies (Israel). We need to work with ful Western sense for the foreseeable most of China’s energy flows, should not MbS and support his efforts to modern- future. Therefore, we should not waste be overlooked. It should also be noted ize the Kingdom while at the same time any more of our national treasure on that the Chinese are expanding the curbing the power of the Wahhabi clergy this corrupt society. It is not a question Gwadar International Airport to handle and root out corruption. of whether or not the current U.S. coun- military flights. Clearly the current U.S. terinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan counterinsurgency strategy in Afghani- ❚❚Cutting off the LAF will succeed, but rather to acknowledge stan is ill-suited for future strategic chal- The recent “two-step” by the Leba- that the strategic environment makes lenges in the region. nese President Saad Hariri remains con- success virtually impossible. This is due fusing as to his actual intentions as well to the fact that Pakistan, upon which ❚❚The Role of Balochistan as relationship with the Saudis. He first the outcome of our counterinsurgency The strategic center of gravity has showed up in Riyadh in mid-November strategy depends, views Afghanistan actually shifted from Afghanistan to 2017 to announce his resignation as prime as a client state with only the thinnest the Pakistani province of Balochistan, minister of Lebanon because Iran and veneer of sovereignty, and has regional which is not only critical to China’s Hezbollah effectively control Lebanon. plans markedly different from those of $46 billion investment in CPEC, but is That was useful in actually exposing the the United States and NATO. now the home of an extensive Taliban true situation on the ground. The subse- As Col. Larry Sellin, USA (ret.) has support infrastructure and a breeding quent withdrawal of his resignation upon pointed out many times, Pakistan regu- ground for transnational terrorism. A his return to Beirut, while confusing, nev- lates the operational tempo through its shift of Balochistan in the direction of ertheless changed nothing with regard to support of the Taliban and therefore, ef- its former secular independent status Iran and Hezbollah’s control of the Leba- fectively controls how our troops are em- would drive a geo-political stake into the nese Armed Forces (LAF). The LAF is a ployed in Afghanistan. Additionally, be- heart of radical Islam, obviate Pakistan’s wholly owned subsidiary of the IRGC and cause U.S. supply lines for those troops influence in Afghanistan and shatter controlled by Hezbollah, so it makes ab- pass through Pakistan, it also wields an China’s plan to economically dominate solutely no sense for the U.S. to continue effective choke hold on our operations South Asia and control the vital Indian to provide it with military equipment. Ac- there. Our counterinsurgency tactics Ocean sea lanes to the Persian Gulf and Suez Canal. As can be seen, our overall strategy The strategic center of gravity has actually shifted from for the Middle East and South Asia must be framed by our core vital interests. Be- Afghanistan to the Pakistani province of Balochistan... sides the necessary political and diplo- matic efforts, our strategy must be based on a balance of power with our regional cordingly, the recently announced $120 place our forces at the same tactical level allies to prevent regional hegemony by million worth of military equipment that of the Taliban. Consequently, we are any one country (Iran, Russia, or China). the Trump administration is planning to playing to the strengths of the enemy This will require a deployed force struc- transfer to the LAF must be cancelled. The rather than our own. According to Sell- ture that enables us to conduct surgical same with our bribery money to the Pal- in, Pakistan will always do just enough strikes with the effective use of special estinian Authority, which refuses to rec- to prevent the United States and NATO forces, combined with the non-jihadist ognize Israel’s legitimacy and continues from ever reaching the point of ensuring Sunni-Shia elements to thwart plans to to make payment to terrorists’ families. a stable and secure Afghanistan. keep off-balance any nation that threat- Our strategy must also confront the Pakistan now sees China as the ens U.S. regional interest. new emerging jihadist axis of Turkey, future dominant power in South Asia. Qatar, and Iran. This alliance is com- The Chinese are investing heavily in the Admiral JAMES LYONS, USN mitted to regional objectives counter to Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor (ret.) served as the Command- those of America and our allies. (CPEC) which is the regional linchpin of er of the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 31 Trump’s Afghanistan Strategy: The Least Bad Option by SHANTHIE MARIET D’SOUZA

onald Trump’s strategy for Af- ❚❚Kinetic vs Non-kinetic components, will limit the gains achieved ghanistan and South Asia an- First, the strategy, apparently script- through kinetic operations. Claiming nounced in August, was intended ed by the U.S. military, is not about that all of this will be something more Dto highlight the novelty and sur- nation-building but kinetic operations, than smoke and mirrors is guaranteed, prise elements of a roadmap that purport- search-and-destroy by another name. Trump proclaimed, by the application edly sought little short of the decimation Getting a free hand on the ground with of will. Unlike in the prior administra- of terrorism. For all that, the “new” strat- no micro-management from Washington tion, he implied, this time the United egy, its overheated semantics and studious is a victory of sorts for the American gen- States will fight to win. To point out the ambiguity notwithstanding, in reality is erals in Afghanistan. Still, much confu- sheer profligacy of such a pronouncement but a continuation of the American trial- sion abounds as to whether the strategy seems almost a waste of effort. and-error method that has kept insurgent is counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism aspirations of a victory alive these 16 years plus, or an overt reliance on the use of ❚❚Regional Power Play since the United States intervened in Af- military force. Moving away from the Second, Trump has not identified ghanistan. After spending much blood earlier time-based approach to one based any benchmarks and targets for actions. and treasure, has the United States learned on conditions is certainly appropriate. In This keeps the expectation bar low but from its mistakes? Is the present strat- this, Trump has addressed the error of also does not address the basic compo- egy a break with the past? Or is it a mere his predecessor, Barack Obama, who in nent of metrics. Neither has he expressed continuation of a policy with no defined December 2009 had announced troop in any clear terms expected steps to be objectives and outcomes? India needs to surge and exit at the same time. This only taken by Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, consider carefully its desired terms of en- worked to insurgent advantage, allowing or even the United States itself. Most im- gagement for any serious partnership with an approach of “waiting out the enemy.” portantly, the role of other major regional the Americans in Afghanistan. Yet there is no indication whether powers such as Russia, China, Iran, UAE, the intent is to convert Afghanistan into and Saudi Arabia remains undefined. Af- ❚❚Ambiguities and Novelty a new South Korea, where U.S. troops are ghanistan’s tragedy lies in the fact that After all the opposition to the war indefinitely based, or something else. A its internal contradictions have been ex- in Afghanistan he unleashed over the years via social media, especially in his election campaign, when push came to ...the apparent decoupling of kinetic and non- shove, Donald Trump’s strategy for Af- ghanistan and South Asia chose the least kinetic elements of the strategy...will limit the gains bad option, the one which would have achieved through kinetic operations. the least resistance and would provide room for maneuver to match domestic needs and geopolitical interests. Despite tall claims of having studied Afghani- conditions-based approach is preferable ploited by external powers. Without a re- stan in great detail and from every con- to the mistaken announcement of a time gional strategy, the external powers will ceivable angle, Trump’s Afghanistan schedule, but there is nothing to indicate continue along this path, notably neigh- strategy is neither new nor comprehen- what will be done to address those con- boring Pakistan. sive. New Delhi needs to remain cautious ditions that are fueling extremism and before embracing this ambiguous strat- violence. Further, the apparent decou- ❚❚Safe Haven egy. Among its many ambiguities, three pling of kinetic and non-kinetic elements Third, every American president is are especially worth considering: of the strategy, the military and civilian aware of Pakistan’s role and interests in

32 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 Trump’sSHANTHIE MARIET D’SOUZA: Afghanistan Strategy: The Least Bad Option robust counter-terrorism cooperation with the United States will need to ad- dress issues of funding, training, and support provided to these groups.

❚❚Building Non-Kinetic Capabilities India has pledged more than $3 billion to various civilian capacity- building, infrastructure, and develop- ment projects in Afghanistan. This has brought it significant good will among the Afghans. By avoiding a narrow secu- rity-dominated approach India is seen as a neutral partner and not a party to the conflict. It is prudent, then, for New Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani in 2016. Delhi to stay clear of involvement in the kinetic side of the equation, while simul- supporting the terrorist groups in Af- Pakistan considers cozying up to China taneously urging the United States to ghanistan. It is perhaps the first time as its safety-valve, the strategy has been play a more meaningful non-kinetic role that a U.S. president has stated this pub- welcomed in Kabul and New Delhi. In in institution building and reform. licly, but it is not as though the reality spite of Trump’s awkward mentioning This goes against the Trump ad- has not hitherto figured into planning. first of India’s substantial trade ben- ministration’s stated goal of avoiding na- Nevertheless, there it was: “Pakistan of- efits from good relations with the U.S. tion-building, yet any military strategy ten gives safe haven to agents of chaos, – before elaborating on his expectations divorced from building strong institu- violence, and terror,” Trump stated un- from New Delhi “to do more” – New tions of governance and service delivery ambiguously. Unspecified was just what Delhi has welcomed the strategy. It is is unlikely to translate kinetic gains into coercive instruments could be brought seen as a nod to the importance of In- tangible political outcomes. The mere to play to change Pakistan’s behavior. dia’s economic and development assis- addition of 3,000 troops to Afghanistan, Trump’s critique of Pakistan is in tance thus far and an acknowledgement where they will bolster the approxi- line with New Delhi and Kabul’s posi- that without India’s soft power, things mately 11,000 American forces already tion on the external support and sanc- could be much worse. there, will not make much impact unless tuary provided to the insurgent and there is a clarity of the mission, rules of terrorist groups that are the source of ❚❚Counter-terrorism engagement and outcome, in addition to Afghanistan’s instability. Pakistan has Cooperation building effective and responsive gover- been a mendacious ally in the U.S.-led Though mentioning the fact that at nance institutions. war on terror, sheltering terror groups least 20 U.S.-designated foreign terrorist There is a serious possibility that the like the Taliban and the Haqqani net- organizations are active in Afghanistan United States is looking to India to per- work, and using them as strategic assets and Pakistan, the highest concentration form the non-kinetic component while in Afghanistan, despite more than $33 in any region anywhere in the world, Washington engages in what certain fig- billion in American aid being given to Trump’s strategy appears geared toward ures feel it does best, war fighting. This Pakistan in the last decade and half for targeting al-Qaeda and ISIS. If the Unit- would be a thankless position for New the counter-terrorism cooperation. ed States is still looking for a political Delhi to be in that could entail burden- settlement with the Taliban, New Delhi sharing and risk strategic distortion as ❚❚Strategic Partnership in will have to make sure that this is done concerns its own interests. Afghanistan by the Afghan government through an Trump’s sudden recognition of New open, inclusive, and accountable process. ❚❚Long Drawn-Out War Delhi’s concerns has been received with Moreover, New Delhi needs to tell Likewise, the role of private contrac- caution in view of the role he wishes to Washington that the targeting of terror- tors in the push to outsource the war; the assign India as a strategic ally and fur- ist groups cannot be selective and must continued dependence upon warlords, ther develop the strategic partnership. include groups that are detrimental to power-brokers, and militias for support The proof lies in the pudding. Even as India’s security interests, as well. Any of counter-insurgency operations; the

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 33 use of airpower as a surrogate for actual In the political sector, in addition to that will be an antidote to enemy forces engagement, together with inadequate revamping the indigenous institutions and predatory neighbors. The Strate- human intelligence (HUMINT) result- for peace and reconciliation such as the gic Partnership Agreement signed by ing in collateral damage and increase in High Peace Council, reconciled and rein- New Delhi with Kabul in October 2011 civilian casualties, all need to be clarified. tegrated fighters will need opportunities provides a good template. As America The potential for New Delhi to be caught for employment and acceptability as they adopts a kinetic approach toward Af- in the blowback from Washington’s ill- transition back into society. More impor- ghanistan, New Delhi will have to spell considered approaches must be weighed. tantly, as Afghanistan heads to another out the conditions for any cooperation Skeptics are already highlighting round of presidential and much-delayed to take this strategic partnership ahead. that by lumping its Afghan with its South parliamentary elections in 2019 and 2018 For New Delhi to partner with U.S. Asia (India and Pakistan) strategy, the respectively, systems, procedures, and lo- development and aid agencies, such as Trump administration runs the danger gistics need to be put in place to avoid the USAID, there is a need for integrated of not only intensifying the India-Paki- messy outcomes of previous years. These planning to provide market access for stan competition but also intensifying re- have seriously undermined the credibil- the products produced, accompanied gional competition as Pakistan seeks suc- ity and functioning of the Afghan gov- by skill-based training for small and cor from the likes of China, Russia, and ernment. Greater decentralization will medium enterprises for income gen- Iran. The dangers of such competition help popular participation on the mar- eration and boosting domestic produc- notwithstanding, Pakistan will need to gins. The limits of an overly centralized tion. Continuing instability has enabled compete with India on the development form of governance of the past decade neighboring countries to pour in cheap and reconstruction of Afghanistan which and a half are evident. goods, thus, stunting Afghanistan’s in- will accrue good will from the Afghans. A legitimate government that deliv- digenous economic revival and growth. At the moment, the popular sentiment ers to basic services the people is essential New Delhi will have to tread care- for Pakistan remains very low. to any hope of victory, however defined. fully in the shifting sands inside Af- A weak and unstable Afghanistan A clean, responsive and accountable gov- ghanistan and the region. Rather than has been a primary objective of its preda- ernance system under the rule of law is rushing into the American embrace, tory neighbors. Leaving to the side the essential to build the trust of the popu- New Delhi’s primary objective must be reality that countries like Pakistan are lace and deprive the insurgents of its to fulfill its obligations as Kabul’s strate- not simply going to give up this quest, regardless of U.S. positions or threats, there is the fundamental necessity for any New Delhi needs to tell Washington that the American strategy that has hope of suc- cess to build a strong and stable Afghan targeting of terrorist groups cannot be selective and state, one which will make it difficult for must include groups that are detrimental to India’s its predatory neighbors and thier proxies to continue subversion and assault. security interests, as well.

❚❚Institution Building and Reform support. If this appears so much pie-in- gic partner. President Trump has sought This can be achieved by institution the-sky, then there hardly appears any an honorable and enduring outcome, building and reforms in the security, point in being involved. Just what the an- the contours of which remain unknown. political, economic, and governance nounced U.S. strategy is to contribute to The Afghans have long looked to a sectors. The Trump administration has such an end-state is puzzling. friendly India to play this role of a seri- refrained from making clear, long-term ous interlocutor. India should step up to commitments. The time to do so is now. ❚❚Prospects for India-U.S. the plate commensurate with its rising In the security sector, there remains Partnership in Afghanistan power status and aspirations. a need for better training, equipment, If India and the United States in- vetting, and policing capabilities, as well tend to work together in denying hos- SHANTHIE MARIET D’SOUZA, as an increase in Afghan airpower capa- tile groups and their sponsors any space Ph.D., is a visiting research associate at bility. The latter element alone, if inad- in Afghanistan, the first step will be to Murdoch University in Perth, Australia equate, seems all but to guarantee that outline a comprehensive and long-term and Founder and President of Mantraya. the gains achieved through kinetic op- plan along with the Afghan government This article was first published at Man- erations will be simply lost. to build a strong and stable Afghanistan traya and republished by Eurasia Review.

34 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 An Open Letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin by JIRI VALENTA and LENI FRIEDMAN VALENTA

ear Mr. President: Cooperation summit in Vietnam in No- to the 2013 sarin gas attack). Thank you for publicizing that vember, you and President Trump issued Reports also indicate you are not President Donald Trump and a joint statement on Syria. Sadly, the full at ease with the 2,000 U.S. troops still Dthe CIA shared information that summit was called off; as your adviser, in Syria. Why not? Under Obama, the helped avoid a terrorist attack on St. Pe- Andrey Kortunov remarked, you and United States was covertly seeking to oust tersburg’s Kadansky Cathedral. This re- Russia are still “toxic” to Trump at home. Asad. Trump redirected American forces minds us that at the June 2001 Slovenia In your joint statement, you agreed and helped smash ISIS. America does plan summit, you shared information collect- that “there is no military solution to the to stay for a while, but to stabilize Syria in ed by Russian intelligence in Chechnya conflict in Syria.” You committed to the strategic collaboration with Russia. warning about an Al Qaeda attack on Geneva process. You upheld the main- However, on your surprise stopover the United States. It is unfortunate the tenance of Syria’s sovereignty and right at your Khmeimim airbase in Syria on strong Russo-U.S. relationship of 2001- to free elections under U.N. supervision. Dec. 11, 2017, you claimed victory on be- 2002 has unraveled over time for many The two of you also agreed to cooperate half of Syrian dictator Asad’s forces, as reasons – and we are reminded of the on military de-confliction, a joint effort Russia, with the help of Iranian personnel, need to restore it. at the liquidation of ISIS, a review of has wrested control of most of the coun- cease fire agreements, safe de-escalation, try from the Islamic State. Thus, you said ❚❚Resolution of Syrian Conflict and humanitarian measures. However, you planned to send a “significant” part In the interest of improving that I am sure you would agree with Kortu- of your forces home. It was an odd move. relationship, we wish to briefly make nov that the joint statement was “a step In the United States, in light of past Rus- known our views on certain policy is- in the right direction, but collaboration sian pullouts including Leonid Brezhnev’s sues, cognizant that others are reading remains situational, not strategic.” so-called withdrawals from Afghanistan, this letter. We do not speak for any gov- You had reason to worry when you were not entirely believed. ernmental body. Trump fired 59 Tomahawk missiles at In any event, be frank: The civil war As you know, President Barack Asad’s Shayrat airfield to punish him in Syria is by no means over, and Syria Obama and Secretary of State Hillary for a second poison gas attack on civil- is economically devastated—loss of oil Clinton, having launched a covert war ians. (The first was in 2013). Wisely, you revenues, infrastructure, and short- in Syria and supporting the rebels seek- appear to have concluded that Trump, ages of food. Defeating an enemy is one ing to oust Asad, were on a path to war whether or not he believed Asad respon- thing; sustaining peace is another. with Russia and Iran in Syria. Former CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell even spoke of “killing Russians” in Syr- ia. Why not share frankly the reasons for Russia’s 2015 intervention there? Unless you and Trump get together to negotiate Besides protecting your consider- directly and forge strategic cooperation between our able investments, you saw the vacuum countries, the Syrian war will drag on for years. created by the killing of dictators in Iraq and Libya delivering power to the Islamic State, al-Qaeda and the Mus- lim Brotherhood. Surely, the removal of Asad would also have turned secular sible for the attack, had to demonstrate At present, U.S. and Russian forces Syria into another jihadist hell. that when it comes to red lines, he’s not must avoid accidents in a crowded Syria. At the Asia-Pacific Economic Obama (who did not respond with force This brings me to that incident over the

Global Hotspots| inFOCUS 35 Euphrates River in December when a Trump for effectively doing the same. Churchill, did the old ones, when he couple of American F-22 Raptors almost Russia is friendly with both Israel spoke of how “the civilized world so butted heads with a pair of your Su Frog- and the PLO – of which the Palestinian foolishly, so supinely, so insensately al- foots. Of course, they blamed each other. Authority is a branch. Perhaps your dip- lowed the Nazi gangsters to build up, What’s new? Yet you must know that two lomats can be helpful in negotiating an year by year from almost nothing.” weeks earlier, your side submitted an iden- end to their conflict. The solution must tical report on an event that the American include the right of Israel to control the Born in Nazi-occupied Bohemia to a side said never happened. We have to work Golan Heights without the presence of Czech-Jewish, Holocaust afflicted fam- together, or at least avoid each other. Hezbollah, Iran’s primary armed proxy. ily, JIR I VA LENTA, Ph.D., is a Non- Furthermore, there are actors in Just this week we were horrified to Resident Senior Research Associate Syria besides Russians and Americans. discover that the Obama administration, at the BESA [Begin-Sadat] Center for These include Iranians, foreign rebels, while criticizing your support of Hezbol- Strategic Studies, Bar Ilan University, Kurds, Turks and Saudis, not to mention lah, protected Hezbollah’s massive drug Tel Aviv, Israel. He and his wife, LENI Asad’s forces. The Kurds, loyal and suc- peddling and money laundering schemes FRIEDMAN VALENTA, are the prin- cessful U.S. allies, seek a homeland, i.e. a in the Americas. But you were selling cipals of The Institute of Post-Commu- big chunk of Syria, and some U.S troops arms to Hezbollah drug kingpins. One, nist Studies and Terrorism (jvlv.net). in Syria support the largely Kurdish Syr- Ali Fayad, was indicted for plans to as- Author of Soviet Intervention in ian Democratic Forces (SDF). sassinate U.S. officials and attempting to Czechoslovakia, 1968 (Johns Hopkins, Battling the Kurds are the Turks, acquire anti-aircraft missiles. 1991), and other books, Jiri founded the who, despite their support of jihadist Institute of Soviet and East European forces, are still NATO allies. President ❚❚Possible Summit in Prague Studies [ISEES] at the University of Mi- Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent his troops President Putin, we frankly do not ami in 1986. Valenta is a long-standing into Syria largely fearing successes of believe that the major threats to world member of the Council on Foreign Re- the Kurds could rouse separatist forces order can be fully resolved without you lations and a former professor and co- in eastern Turkey. But you and Trump and President Trump sitting together. ordinator of Soviet and East European have to think creatively about how to of- Despite domestic politics and polariza- Studies at the U.S. Naval Post-Graduate fer Kurds at least autonomy in the peace tion at home, an open-ended summit School. He served with Natan Sharansky talks in Geneva, and perhaps a path to should take place. and Alan Dershowitz on the National future independence – they are the bal- We suggest Prague, the capital of a Council on Soviet Jewry from 1976-87. ance to jihadists. NATO country, whose president, Milos He is also the 2005 winner of the Jan There is also the problem of find- Zeman, has friendly relations with both Masaryk silver medal from the Czech ing a national leader to replace Asad, the the United States and Russia. Republic for his “contribution to preserv- much-hated leader of the Alawite mi- ing and promoting relations between nority. Yet it remains important to you ❚❚We Need Each Other Czech Republic and the United States of and Trump that Alawites protect Syria’s The United States and Russia should America,” while managing a Czech for- Arab Christians. strive to renew the anti-Islamist terrorist eign ministry think tank under Vaclav Unless you and Trump get together partnership. The attack on the Kadan- Havel from 1991-93. Beside co-producing to negotiate directly and forge strategic sky Cathedral was spoiled by a CIA tip books on Czech national interests, Va- cooperation between our countries the and joint operations of American and lenta proposed that the PLO embassy Syrian war will drag on for years. Russian intelligence. But ISIS fighters be closed as a terrorist center. The PLO and their violent sympathizers, defeated published a booklet, Palestinska Otaz- ❚❚Moving the U.S. Embassy to in Iraq and Syria, are not demoralized. ka [Palestine Question] attacking Va- Jerusalem Their jihad is spreading across the globe. lenta and the Embassy remained open. Syria does not exist in a vacuum. In the continuing war with jihad- Shortly before the August 1991 anti- The neighbors are affected, and besides ists, both our nations, while endowed Yeltsin coup attempt in Moscow, Valenta Turkey, one of these is Israel. Frankly, we with different faces of Judaic-Christian helped organize a new route to Israel are confused about where you stand on civilization, need each other to fight and through Prague for Soviet Jews seek- the U.S. decision to acknowledge Jerusa- eventually defeat not just Islamic terror- ing to emigrate. The Sanford Ziff Free- lem as the capital of Israel and move the ism but the evil ideology that underlies dom Flight, supported by philanthropist American embassy. You, yourself, recog- it. Unfortunately, our president, con- Ziff and the Cuban American National nized West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, stantly facing false charges of racism, Foundation, was approved and facili- yet your diplomats have now attacked cannot attack the new Nazis, as Winston tated by then-President Vaclav Havel.

36 inFOCUS | Winter 2018 Planning to Win review by SHOSHANA BRYEN

ome things are just too unpleas- The Peoples Republic of China ant to contemplate, too far in the (PRC) believes the island nation of Tai- future, or too complicated to de- wan belongs to Beijing. The PRC has Smand attention. Or too scary. Or spent decades planning and arming for conflict with other things we know – or the invasion of Taiwan and the restora- think we know. A North Korean nucle- tion of the island to its rule. Planning ar attack on an American island would and arming to win. Yes, if it could get be one of those. An Iranian attack on the Taiwanese government to capitu- Israel would be another. A Chinese at- late peacefully, China would take it. But tack on Taiwan would be all of those. “It as Easton details with maps, charts and won’t happen,” people say, “because the great familiarity with Chinese military consequences (for the attacker) would journals, Taiwan is the first national be too terrible.” priority of the PRC government, if for Too terrible, perhaps, for Ameri- no other reason than that a flourishing can sensibilities – we like to think most democracy in Taiwan provides Chinese people prefer peace to war, negotiation people with a model for life inconsistent to shooting, and kicking the can down with communist rule. The repressive na- the road to making a stand. And cer- ture of the PRC government is a running tainly we like to think people prefer theme, coloring choices the government building military forces for defense, not makes and accounting for it looking over for offense. But The Chinese Invasion its shoulder at the possibility of rebellion Threat by Ian Easton of the Project 2049 at home if it is too adventurous and not Institute is a chilling reminder that not successful enough abroad. everyone sees things as we do and some The Taiwanese view the whole thing The Chinese Invasion countries prepare for the future they ex- from the other end of the telescope. Tai- Threat pect to have, even if they expect to have wan is planning and arming not to lose. it at great cost. Easton reads their journals as well. Ian Easton The Project 2049 Institute presents The United States, true to its post- its mission as seeking “to guide decision Cold War form, broadly believes engage- makers toward a more secure Asia by the ment with the PRC, trade deals, “confi- Project 2049 Institute century’s mid-point… fill(ing) a gap in dence-building measures” and points of 2017 the public policy realm through forward common interest will create a web of ties looking, region-specific research on al- China will not risk for the restoration of ternative security and policy solutions.” Taiwan. Easton contends there is no com- Easton is a research fellow, previously a mon interest. “China has made clear that visiting fellow at the Japan Institute for In- its primary external objective is attaining ternational Affairs, and a China analyst at the ability to apply overwhelming force the Center for Naval Analyses. If the goal against Taiwan during a conflict and, if is to focus attention on parts of the in- necessary, destroy American-led forces.” ternational security system governments At this point, the American reader might prefer to ignore, Easton – on behalf should be saying, “But it will be so de- of the Institute – succeeds mightily. He structive that no one – particularly the begins not with U.S.-China trade or po- PRC government, which has worked litical positions, but with the fundamental assiduously to build a Chinese middle point of communist China’s policy. class – would do that.”

Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 37 Local spectators greet to the Chinese Navy destroyer Qingdao (DDG 113) mooring in Pearl Harbor in 2006. (Photo: U.S. Navy)

Maybe not, but maybe. The PRC is To provide Taiwan with arms of a de- makes sense because if something they no less clear than the Ayatollah Khomei- fensive character and to maintain the advocate goes south, so do their careers ni was when he said an Iranian nuclear capacity of the United States to resist and maybe their lives. Papers filled with attack on Israel would result in Israeli any resort to force or other forms of bombast about the ease of invasion and retaliation leaving 10 million Iranians coercion that would jeopardize the occupation, Easton says, are more likely dead. The exchange, he said, would be security or the social or economic sys- written by unimportant, low-level politi- survivable for Iran but not for Israel. It tem of the people of Taiwan. cal operatives. was, therefore, an acceptable trade-off. Take the pessimistic papers the Americans generally think of Khomei- Even if we find it hard to imagine most seriously. ni as having been a raving lunatic, but the PRC invading Taiwan, the United Although focused on what the somehow think of the Communist Party States has to be prepared to help Taiwan PRC plans to do, a fascinating chap- of China as a responsible partner for defend itself. ter brings attention to Taiwan’s cop- trade and politics. Easton, a rare Chinese-speaker in ing mechanisms – military, economic Our political differences exacer- U.S. policy circles, draws on Chinese- and social. Taiwan plans the way Israel bate our misunderstanding of Chinese language defense manuals, journals, and plans. Drills, reserve service, dual-use policy – or at least, our understanding papers to understand what the PLA is ships, planes and airports, and national of the PRC commitment to winning. thinking, planning and buying. He bal- mobilization drills are part of life from The good news is that the U.S. is bound ances this with Taiwanese writings on childhood to adulthood. But the objec- to Taiwan through the Taiwan Rela- the same subjects. One useful conclusion tive is to convince the Chinese not to tions Act, which clearly states Ameri- is that professional military planners invade – and only secondarily to defeat ca’s responsibilities: are well aware of, and highly attuned invasion if necessarily. Easton quotes a to, things that could go wrong – which Taiwanese scholar:

38 inFOCUS | Winter 2017 review by SHOSHANA BRYEN: Planning to Win

If China even threatens to attack not to the PRC. An American failure to might travel through the island, it is hard Soft Subversion and PalestinianJON B. PERDUE: Statehood lomatTaiwan, was italso could quoted greatly saying damage that ourLula’s supportmore helpful Taiwan once in he an le emergencyft office. would tothere envision. is a lot Heof readinesswrites about in Western ports, airEu-- Middleeconomy. East Investorsfreelancing will was flee. “transpar- That have Lula’san impact influence across with a wide Argentina’s area of letheft- portsrope to and recognize cities anthat independent are invisible. Palestin The- ent”happened and only to designedus in 1996, to gain and support we world.wing president He dates Cristina a change Kirchner in PRC wasbehav key- mapsian state.” that Indeed, are there the –PA 9 nextin 275 set pagesits sights of forhaven’t a spot forgottenon the Security it. We Council.are now in a iorto thetoward UDI theeffort. 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But a simultaneous diplomatic unilaterallytheless, our endorse businessmen a Palestinian are some state of (in - effort by WalidOur Muaqqat, political a veteran differences Pales- z So exacerbateft Subversion our at Play sidethe Israel’s most flexiblepre-1967 in borders) the world. in Decem They - tinianmisunderstanding diplomat in the region, convincedof Chinese policyThe vote – for or Palestinian at least, statehood our at berwould 2010, move which on at to the other time markets undermined and the Argentine government to announce the UN is largely symbolic and designed U.S.recover negotiations in a few betweenyears. 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PERDUE is the director of Latin understandingCountries (ASPA that by ourits Portugueselong-term andin- back.quoted Although Nabil Shaath, Easton the Commissionertalks the reader of SHOSHANAAmerica programs BRYEN at the Fundis forthe Ameriedi-- terestsSpanish in initials) the Pacific in 2005, are tiedwhere to Taiwanhe as- throughInternational Chinese Relations considerations for Fatah, saying, for torcan Studies,of inFOCUS and is theand author the Seniorof the forth Di-- andsured democratic Abbas that American he would allies become in Asia, even where“Our next it might target invade is Western and Europe.how its Iforces think rectorcoming book,of the Th e JewishWar of AllPolicy the People Center..

Chairman: Richard Fox Board of Fellows: The Jewish Richard Baehr, William J. Bennett, Honorary Chairman: Mona Charen, Midge Decter, Policy Center Sheldon B. Kamins David Frum, David Horowitz, Rabbi Daniel Lapin, Michael A. Ledeen, Board Vice Chairmen: Michael Medved, David Novak, Marshall J. Breger Daniel Pipes, John Podhoretz, Michael David Epstein Norman Podhoretz, Dennis Prager, Tevi Troy, Ruth Wisse General Counsel: Jeffrey P. Altman

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Global Hotspots | inFOCUS 39 Fall 2011 | inFocus: A Palestinian State? 11 50 F Street NW, Suite 100 Washington, DC 20001

❚❚A Final Thought ...

Jerusalem❚❚A Final Thought ... as the Capital of Israel President Donald Trump’s decision to have the United to Israel’s sovereignty anywhere. The PLO Charter, like that States recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel was not of Hamas, claims Palestine in the whole British Mandate taken in a vacuum. It was another step in changing the territory, including Jordan. For now, however, the Pales- moribund Palestinian-Israel “peace process” into some- tinian Authority slogan is “From the (Jordan) River to the thing else. What else is not clear, but the intention and the (Mediterranean) Sea,” meaning all of Israel, and that is what antecedents are. they teach their children. The intention is to disabuse the Palestinians of the no- The president proceeded in stages. tion that the United States is neutral between them and our • First, he called out Palestinian President Mahmoud democratic, pro-Western, tolerant, free-market ally Israel. Abbas for teaching Palestinian children to venerate violence Clarity will actually make the United States. an honest bro- and terror against Israel and Jews. ker in any future negotiations – honest being the operative • He offered support to the Taylor Force Act in Con- word. Our support for Palestinian aspirations is condition- gress to eliminate American financial support for Palestin- al on their behavior. ian payments to terrorists. As for antecedents… • Third was a threat to close the PLO mission in Wash- Israel’s requirements in any “process” have long been ington for violating its conditional charter and threatening the safeguards guaranteed by UN Security Council Resolu- Israel in the International Criminal Court tion 242: “Termination of all claims or states of belligerency • Finally, the Jerusalem declaration. and respect for and acknowledgment of the sovereignty, ter- What’s next? ritorial integrity and political independence of every State American support for Palestinian aspirations is not in the area and their right to live in peace within secure and withdrawn, but hinges on Palestinian behavior. If Palestin- recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force.” ian leaders can’t meet American requirements, they will Where the boundaries are is negotiable; Israel’s capital in an have undermined themselves and their people (again). They undivided Jerusalem is not, though the formulation leaves a can’t say it wasn’t clear. bit of room for politics. Current Palestinian requirements are an independent – Shoshana Bryen, state in the West Bank and Gaza without giving legitimacy Editor, inFOCUS