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IEA Salmon Indicators

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IEA Salmon Indicators CCIEA PHASE III REPORT 2013: ECOSYSTEM COMPONENTS, PROTECTED SPECIES – PACIFIC SALMON PACIFIC SALMON Brian Wells1, Tom Wainwright2, Cynthia Thomson1, Thomas Williams1, Nathan Mantua1, Lisa Crozier2, Sara Breslow2, and Kurt Fresh2 1. NOAA Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Science Center 2. NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Detailed report .....................................................................................................................................9 Salmon abundance and condition indicator selection process ..................................................... 11 Summary of indicators ............................................................................................................... 11 Indicator evaluation ................................................................................................................... 12 Potential indicators for assessing abundance (population size) ............................................ 14 Potential indicators for assessing population condition ........................................................ 14 Selecting appropriate stocks/populations for evaluation of abundance and condition ....... 16 Appropriate indicators ........................................................................................................ 17 Status and trends of salmon abundance and condition ................................................................ 31 Major findings of salmon abundance and condition ................................................................. 31 Summary and status of trends of salmon abundance and condition ........................................ 31 Chinook salmon: Abundance .............................................................................................. 31 Chinook salmon: Condition ................................................................................................. 32 Coho salmon: Abundance ................................................................................................... 32 Coho salmon: Condition ..................................................................................................... 32 Evnironmental pressures relevant to salmon ............................................................................... 47 Recent ocean conditions ............................................................................................................ 48 Basin-scale processes ......................................................................................................... 48 Local and regional processes .............................................................................................. 48 Salmon forage in the ocean ................................................................................................ 49 Recent freshwater conditions .................................................................................................... 50 Climate change ........................................................................................................................... 52 Integrated environmental effects .............................................................................................. 57 Human dimensions relevant to salmon abundance and condition ............................................... 57 Status, patterns, and trends of activities relevant to salmon .................................................... 61 Fur trapping ........................................................................................................................ 61 Mining ................................................................................................................................. 61 Logging ................................................................................................................................ 62 Agriculture .......................................................................................................................... 66 Dams ................................................................................................................................... 69 Hatcheries ........................................................................................................................... 74 Fisheries .............................................................................................................................. 77 Recreation, tourism, education, volunteerism, management, research ........................... 87 Human population trends................................................................................................... 87 Summary and next steps for integrating the human dimension ............................................... 91 CCIEA Phase IV: Next steps ............................................................................................................ 91 References cited ............................................................................................................................ 92 2 TABLES AND FIGURES Table S1. Salmon ESUs/stocks and available data. ‘X’ indicates that a data series is available, a blank indicates insufficient data are available. .................................................................................................................................................... 11 Table S2. Key indicators for salmon, identified during the ESA listing and recovery planning processes. Indicators categories chosen for this analysis are in bold italic font. .......................................................................................... 13 Table S3. California ESUs/Stocks and data available for abundance estimates. Each of these series met the criteria for inclusion in the analyses and was used...................................................................................................................... 18 Table S4. Data series that met the criteria for inclusion in the condition analyses of California ESUs. Each of these series met the criteria for inclusion in the analyses and was used. ...................................................................................... 20 Table S5. Oregon-Washington ESUs/stocks and data available for abundance estimates. Each of these series met the criteria for inclusion in the analyses and was used. ................................................................................................... 21 Table S6. Oregon-Washington ESUs/stocks and data available for condition estimates. These data series met the criteria for inclusion in the condition analyses Data types available are: HC – hatchery contribution to natural spawning; PGR – population growth rate; Age – spawning age structure. Period is the period of availability for the longest series for that population......................................................................................................................................................... 26 Figure S1. Chinook salmon abundance. Quadplot summarizes information from multiple time series figures. Prior to plotting time series were normalized to place them on the same scale. The short-term trend (x-axis) indicates whether the indicator increased or decreased over the last 10-years. The y-axis indicates whether the mean of the last 10 years is greater or less than the mean of the full time series. Dotted lines show ± 1.0 s.d. Populations listed correspond to data series in Tables S3 & S4. ............................................................................................................. 33 Figure S2. Chinook salmon abundance. The abundance index is calculated as anomalies (observed-mean/standard deviation). Dark green horizontal lines show the mean (dotted) and ± 1.0 s.d. (solid line) of the full time series. The shaded green area is the last 10-years, which is analyzed to produce the symbols to the right of the plot. The upper symbol indicates whether the trend was significant over the last 10-years. The lower symbol indicates whether the mean during the last 10 years was greater or less than or within one s.d. of the long-term mean. Population abbreviations correspond to populations listed in Tables S3 & S4. Abundances are shown as anomalies. .................. 36 Figure S3. Chinook salmon condition. Quadplot summarizes information from multiple time series figures. Prior to plotting time series were normalized to place them on the same scale. The short-term trend (x-axis) indicates whether the indicator increased or decreased over the last 10-years. The y-axis indicates whether the mean of the last 10 years is greater or less than the mean of the full time series. Dotted lines show ± 1.0 s.d. When possible we evaluated percent natural spawners (Pct Nat), age-structure diversity (Age Div), and population growth rate (Pop GR).......................... 37 Figure S4. Chinook salmon condition. The series titles are titled by different populations (letters) and data series type (numbers). Dark green horizontal lines show the mean (dotted) and ± 1.0 s.d. (solid line) of the full time series. The shaded green area is the last 10-years, which is analyzed to produce the symbols to the right of the plot. The upper symbol indicates whether the trend was significant over the last 10-years . The lower symbol indicates whether the mean during the last 10 years was greater or less than or within one s.d. of the long-term mean. When possible we evaluated age-structure diversity (Age Div, 1), percent natural spawners (Pct Nat, 2),
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