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Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 INTRODUCTION GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION (GCF) ANNUAL REPORT: GCF & THOUGHT LEADERS SHARING WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ON GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS 2020 The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations or the Global Challenges Foundation. ANNUAL REPORT TEAM Ulrika Westin, editor-in-chief Waldemar Ingdahl, researcher Victoria Wariaro, coordinator Weber Shandwick, creative director and graphic design. CONTRIBUTORS Kennette Benedict Senior Advisor, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Angela Kane Senior Fellow, Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation; visiting Professor, Sciences Po Paris; former High Representative for Disarmament Affairs at the United Nations Joana Castro Pereira Postdoctoral Researcher at Portuguese Institute of International Relations, NOVA University of Lisbon Philip Osano Research Fellow, Natural Resources and Ecosystems, Stockholm Environment Institute David Heymann Head and Senior Fellow, Centre on Global Health Security, Chatham House, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Romana Kofler, United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs Lindley Johnson, NASA Planetary Defense Officer and Program Executive of the Planetary Defense Coordination Office Gerhard Drolshagen, University of Oldenburg and the European Space Agency Stephen Sparks Professor, School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol Ariel Conn Founder and President, Magnitude 10 Consulting 2 Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 Contents Foreword 4 Taxonomy 6 Weapons of mass destruction 7 Nuclear warfare 8 Biological and chemical warfare 12 Catastrophic climate change 16 Ecological collapse 25 Pandemics 31 Asteroid impact 37 Supervolcanic eruption 41 Artificial intelligence 45 Endnotes 50 3 Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 FOREWORD Dear reader, In 2020, COVID-19 catapulted catastrophic risks and their There is of course a serious risk that political and public governance into the global consciousness. The warning attention for climate issues will dramatically decline in signs have been increasingly strong as humans disrupt the face of the acute economic and social consequences of biodiversity, come into close contact with virus-carrying the pandemic. And yet some of us believe that this crisis creatures and travel intensively throughout the world. can be a turning point, giving rise to a greener future as the economic recovery packages being prepared by many The Global Challenges Foundation’s Annual Report aims countries offer an opportunity to re-build economies and to give an overview of all the greatest threats to humanity, societies towards sustainable modes of production and to track developments in the issues, to highlight their consumption. interconnectedness and to explore how they are being managed at the global level. The essays illustrate, more As debates continue about the best way to manage the than ever, the complex linkages between these global risks greatest threats to our species’ existence, one thing and how they can reinforce each other. is certain: we will need to build new forms of global governance, more urgently and more creatively than This year's survey of global catastrophic risks comes with ever envisioned. The Global Challenges Foundation added significance. As in previous years, we are honored will continue to promote understanding and joined-up to have collaborated with Professor David Heymann of the thinking about how we manage and govern these threats. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who has reviewed the chapter on catastrophic pandemics, bringing We will be feeding into ongoing global discussions on these it up to date with a section on COVID-19. themes. As the United Nations marks its 75th anniversary this year, at a time of great disruption for the world, UN If ever there were an argument for enhanced global Secretary-General António Guterres has launched the cooperation to tackle catastrophic risks, COVID-19 is it. ‘UN 75’ initiative. It promises to be the largest and most The pandemic respects no borders and underlines our far-reaching global conversation to date on “The future we interdependency. No one is truly safe until everyone is want – the UN we need”. We are contributing to this debate protected – which means vaccines and treatment must by supporting the UN and the important work of one of reach everyone, a massive collective undertaking. the teams that won our 2017 ‘New Shape Prize’ to remodel But what of other pressing risks, notably the climate crisis global governance for the 21st century. which finally and belatedly topped the global agenda last This multinational team of experts - economist Augusto year but has since been largely overshadowed by the race Lopez Claros, scientist Arthur Dahl and international to contain the virus? The pandemic will likely lead to a lawyer Maja Groff - is examining the key structural changes reduction in global carbon emissions in 2020. But how needed for the UN to effectively address the greatest could it affect climate change in the medium to long-term? challenges of our time. They are developing an integrated set of proposals to review the UN Charter which would aim to give the UN the binding legislative, judicial and enforcement functions to effectively address catastrophic risks, while still reserving most functions to states. 4 Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 FOREWORD As well as UN reform, GCF is specifically addressing climate governance by setting up a Climate Governance Commission. The Commission will diagnose obstacles to If ever there were effective climate action and propose global governance responses. It aims to develop and mobilise support for a an argument for number of proposals for the improvement of global decision- making and cooperation to stimulate effective solutions to enhanced global the climate crisis. The Commission will include expertise not only from climate experts, but also from experts on cooperation to tackle economics, the social sciences, global governance, public policy, diplomacy, business and the labor market. The aim is catastrophic risks, to kick-start progress in the failing international process to end catastrophic climate changes. COVID-19 is it. We hope you find this report thought-provoking as a summary of the latest evidence on the risks we face. We are sincerely grateful to all the scientists and experts who have helped us - and who continue to help us - in fulfilling our mission. This is an urgent global discussion that must accelerate from here. We invited these respected experts to inform and explain the risks as a catalyst for a more intensive and urgent global discussion. As we continue to support research and policy development, we welcome your feedback and contributions. Thank you. JENS ORBACK Executive Director, Global Challenges Foundation 5 Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 Taxonomy This report aims to present an overview of the CURRENT RISKS FROM global catastrophic risks that the world currently HUMAN ACTION faces, based on consideration of certain crucial Weapons of mass destruction – nuclear, facts and the latest scientific research. It proposes chemical and biological warfare – catastrophic to complement the World Economic Forum’s Global climate change and ecological collapse are all Risks Report1, which offers an up-to-date picture current risks that have arisen as a result of of global risks as perceived by leading political and human activity. Although action on them is time economic actors. These two approaches are highly sensitive, they are still within our control today. complementary: perception is a strong driver of collective action and decision-making, while a more NATURAL CATASTROPHES focused examination of the risks themselves will Pandemics, asteroid impacts and supervolcanic guide better long-term strategy and support the eruptions are known to have caused massive design of more efficient governance models. destruction in the past. Though their occurrence When preparing this report, we aimed to develop a is beyond human control to a large extent, our taxonomy that would reflect the best current under- actions can significantly limit the scale of impact. standing and be useful to decision-makers. We This is especially true for pandemics, where combined historical evidence and scientific data to the recent experience of COVID-19, Ebola and decide which risks should be included in the report. Zika outbreaks highlighted the challenges and For the sake of clarity, we identified ten key risks, opportunities of global cooperation. which we then organised into three main categories: current risks from human action, natural catastro- EMERGING RISKS phes, and emerging risks. The reader should keep in Artificial intelligence might not seem like an mind, however, that many of those risks are closely immediate source of concern. However, we interconnected, and their boundaries sometimes should remember that challenges widely blur, as with climate change and ecological collapse, recognised as the greatest today – climate or as in the case of synthetic biology, which could change and nuclear weapons – were unknown be presented as a risk of its own, an additional risk only 100 years ago, and late response – as in factor in biological warfare, or a potential cause for the case of climate change – has increased the engineered pandemics. risk level considerably. Significant resources are devoted to
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