30 DOSSIER EASTWEST by ErikJones* and compromise: they have to win every argument. and pugnacious leaders who can’t handle uncertainty The British educational system produces ambitious A leadershipcrisis NOVEMBER 20 19 DECEMBER THE END OF THE UNITED KINGDOM

REUTERS/PIROSCHKA VAN DE WOUW /CONTRASTO papers to professorsprovidetopapersinstant who weeklyfacultyato basisreadontheir out dividual tutorials, where students meet with tradition of educating students through in- shares with Cambridge a unique pedagogical tive students to gain admissions. OxfordIt alsois certainly one of the hardest for prospec-world’stheleading educational institution. bating society. Oxford University is arguably the Oxford Union – which is the student de- correct,Kuperis monmore specifically on versity and, if win them the next election. groupofsupporters whocan betrusted to country and to focusthe on of mobilizing whole a narrow the of interests the ignore systemcreates incentives for politicians to perhapsandimportant,most electoral the loud protests of fealty to the nation. Finally, lifeare more globalthanlocal, despite their of rest Britain. the Their of economic much interests of and cultural aspirations and ways that are veryin compete differentto them from taught the has habits elites as socializationTheirGreatBritain. to unique stem from a mix of factors, none of which is abroad,and fornotispreparation.it lack of home at politicsBritish of mess a making Atlantic).acrossaretheywelltheasIf (as nectionsextendthat across Continentthe havetheypolitics,con-andlife of a made were educated at Eton and Oxford,themost powerful they haveplayers in British politics government or in Europe. Instead, however, new political class that lacked experience in Great Britain were suddenly taken over by a plan for how to leave withoutone. pean Union or to come up with a convincing Euro- the exitto parliament in majority a has once again failed to negotiate to secure government British the Worse, widen. to continues Ireland Northern and Scotland, England, betweengap the and conflict, in the people are divided, the institutions are T Elite socialization centers on Oxford Uni- class ruling British the of failings The This problem might be understandable if The political parties are splintered, gle to govern the United Kingdom. erned the world; now they strug- gov-once class ruling British he Financial Times columnist Si- THE END OF THE UNITED KINGDOM DOSSIER

and continuous feedback both on their writ- the costs of their actions – social, eco- Boris Johnson in Brussels. It’s rumoured that ing and on their skills in oral presentation. nomic, and political. This is where it is useful the Tory leader prepared two editorials to This system forces students to learn to think to look at the economic and cultural life of announce his referendum campaign, one in quickly and to express themselves con- Britain’s political elites. It is also a good rea- favour and the other against Brexit, and cisely and persuasively. It also fosters a high son to look at the incentives created by chose Leave because he thought it would be to his advantage. degree of self-confidence. Students who their electoral institutions. pass through Oxford are not intimidated by The economic and cultural life is distorted intellectual authority; they are grown ac- by two factors: the concentration of activity member state, and they will suffer fewer customed to supporting their opinions in the in London and the Southeast, and the costs from Britain’s exit than those people face of sustained scrutiny and even outright prominence of the financial services indus- who are already more isolated from global opposition. try and globalized capital markets. Life in markets. Most economic models show that The tutorial system at Oxford gives stu- and around London, where British elites tend the costs of Britain’s exit will fall dispropor- dents opportunities to interact with faculty to congregate, is very different from the tionately on the regions to the southwest individually but it also leaves them to their agricultural southwest or the industrial and to the north; London and the southeast own devices for much of the week. Stu- north of the country. It is more cosmopoli- will suffer as well, but the wealthiest mem- dents are encouraged to attend lectures, tan, more multicultural, and more mobile. bers of the community – meaning most of but they also take part in an array of other Because it is so dependent upon finance, the ruling class – will be least affected. activities, many of which they manage for moreover, the regional economy that sur- The only real constraints on Britain’s themselves. The Oxford Union is one of the rounds London operates according to a dif- elites are political and works through elec- most important. This is where students ferent business cycle or rhythm. This was tions and party politics. Here it is worth not- debate the issues of the day both with immediately apparent during the British ref- ing two important factors. One is the coun- one-another and with politicians, intellec- erendum on European Union membership, try’s first-past-the-post electoral system tuals, or celebrities from outside the uni- where Londoners voted overwhelming in where parties capture single-member dis- versity. As a result, this is the venue where favor of maintaining ties with the European tricts by winning a plurality of the votes. the already high level of self-confidence Union and those outside voted against. This element tends to polarize debates and generated by the Oxford education reaches The too-easy presumption in this con- hence to reinforce the advantages of self- its extremes. It is unsurprising, therefore, text is that British elites would overwhelm- confidence. The lion’s share of British gov- that the student leadership of the Oxford ingly support British membership given ernments rests on outright majorities and Union is a natural training ground for their cosmopolitan upbringing and global not coalitions. That majoritarian tendency Britain’s national political leadership. As Ku- economic interests. Such an assumption explains why Margaret Thatcher could so per points out, many of the key players in ignores, however, the willingness of those easily characterize compromise as a dirty the current British government started po- elites to stake out a strong, contrarian po- word. British politics was not always so po- litical life as officers in the Oxford Union. sition. Boris Johnson famously wrote two larized, but once the divisions set in, they This extreme level of self-confidence is editorials to announce his position in the were very difficult to reverse. excellent training for political competition, referendum campaign – one for continued The other political factor stems from the but it may be poor training for managing un- membership and the other against. In the asymmetrical way that British politics is de- certainty. The more Britain’s political elites end, he decided that leading the opposition centralized. Since 1997, Scotland has its own focus on defending their personal views, the to membership would attract the most at- parliament while Wales and Northern Ire- less they are able to admit to doubt or com- tention and so create the best political op- land have assemblies. Moreover, the rep- promise. Margaret Thatcher used to refer to portunities. When his ‘Leave’ side won the resentatives to these forums stand for this as ‘the politics of conviction.’ And, where referendum, Johnson was visibly staggered election in multi-member districts under it is successful, that practice tends to spread by the implications. proportional electoral rules. Scottish, Welsh, well beyond the Oxford-educated elites and Johnson’s hesitation after the referen- and Northern Irish politicians have to com- to the rest of Britain’s ruling class. That is dum result was only momentary. Because promise in order for these subnational gov- why ‘Thatcher’s Children’, to borrow a they are rooted in the economy and culture ernments to function. The current suspen- phrase British journalist Simon Jenkins, can of London and its surroundings, Britain’s sion of the Stormont Assembly in Northern be found across the political spectrum. elites can maintain their self-confidence Ireland shows what happens when they opt Of course, in the real world, conviction without being constrained by the conse- for bloody-mindedness. Politicians in the is constrained by consequences. When quences of their actions. They will continue devolved parts of Britain also have to politicians pursue their ambition without to have a cosmopolitan existence whether demonstrate their ties to the local commu- doubt or compromise, they must face up to or not Britain remains a European Union nity and economic interests. By impli- 

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Students at Oxford University. Most of the current leaders of the British government began their careers as members of the Oxford Union, a debating society where students and guest speakers from outside the university get to discuss many topical issues. REUTERS/HANNAH MCKAY/CONTRASTO

cation, what succeeds at the national level Coming more than two and a half years ward looking. The difference in the British in Westminster, does not work in Holyrood since the start of negotiations, it is easy to case lies in the consequences and not in (Scotland), Senedd (Wales), or Stormont. question why Britain’s elites have made the constitution of the British ruling class. The political elites in decentralized com- such a mess at delivering on their promises Should Britain’s elites fail to find some munities are distinctive; by implication, ‘na- to the electorate. Brexit may mean Brexit, way to leave the European Union without tional’ or British political elites are predom- as then Conservative Prime Minister creating enormous disruptions outside the inantly English. Moreover, their Englishness Theresa May declared, but Britain remains area around London, they may find that the narrows their focus of attention on those in limbo as a member of the European politics in other parts of the country will constituencies where the national political Union. The answer is that those promises turn decisively against them. This threat is parties are competitive and makes it easy were made with an eye to win the argu- particularly great in the devolved regions, for them to ignore the concerns of the de- ment and without much regard for the con- where the political elite is different and volved regions. The Conservative govern- sequences. The British elites could do that where the institutions for exercising polit- ment elected in May 2017 was an exception because they have a lifetime of practice in ical authority already exist (at least in part). insofar as it held onto a workable majority this sort of debating, because they are A British national elite that is predominantly only through a confidence and supply armed with extraordinary self-confidence English may face a Scottish or Northern agreement with the Northern Irish Demo- in the face of authority and opposition, and Irish national elite that is not and does not cratic Unionist Party (DUP). Should the because they are largely insulated from the wish to be governed the English way. This country head into new elections, however, economic and social consequences. will not change the British ruling class, per- it is easy to see how the leadership of the Most important, perhaps, Britain’s elites haps, but it will change Great Britain and Conservative party could abandon the DUP could go down this path because their fo- hence what it means to be British. e – just as Boris Johnson has done with his cus is on winning the next national election last-minute agreement to leave the Euro- in English constituencies and because they  Erik Jones [BOLOGNA] is director of European pean Union. Without the DUP, that deal has have limited affinity or involvement with and Eurasian studies at the Johns Hopkins Uni- little chance of succeeding. For Johnson, political elites in other parts of the United versity. He has written for The Financial Times, what matters more is how it sets his Con- Kingdom. This kind of insularity in not The New York Times, USA Today and magazi- servative Party up for the upcoming elec- unique to British political elites. The elites nes across Europe. tions that many expect to see. of many other countries are similarly in-

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