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September 21, 2012 September 21, 2012 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Simmtech (Buy/TP: W20,000) Raise TP KOSPI 2,002.37 12.04 0.60 Mobile revenues growing at full speed KOSPI 200 263.41 1.54 0.59 KOSDAQ 531.49 3.43 0.65 Shinsegae (Buy/TP: W285,000) Lower TP Taking on new challenges Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 642,062 4,904 KOSPI 200 74,083 3,308 KOSDAQ 911,594 3,368 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,153,158 KOSDAQ 116,068 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,208 1,040 168 Institutional 1,118 1,138 -20 Retail 2,557 2,700 -143 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 108 94 13 Institutional 139 98 41 Retail 3,122 3,171 -49 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,058 787 271 KOSDAQ 19 19 0 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 463 356 79 KOSDAQ 479 465 58 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 1,302,000 15,000 388 KODEX LEVERAGE 12,940 120 275 WillBes 3,520 -115 181 LG Display 28,500 -800 118 Hynix 23,850 -50 115 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value AHNLAB 99,800 -17,500 162 Solco Biomedical 2,260 -395 146 YG Entertainment 79,000 7,000 122 SaraminHR 27,200 2,400 110 S Connect 1,910 -75 89 Note: As of September 21, 2012 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Company September 21, 2012 Semiconductor (036710 KQ) Simmtech Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. James Song Mobile revenues growing at full speed +822-768-3722 [email protected] What’s new: Earnings momentum to accelerate in 3Q For 3Q, we project Simmtech to post revenues of W177.2bn (up 9.1% QoQ; up 23.3% YoY), an operating profit of W16.6bn (up 18.0% QoQ; up 52.5% YoY; OP margin of 9.4%). In particular, we believe mobile device-related printed-circuit boards (PCB; e.g., multi-chip packaging (MCP)) have begun to show meaningful revenue growth. We estimate the proportion of mobile-related products (out of overall revenues) to increase to 25.7% in 3Q (vs. 16.8% in 3Q). Buy (Maintain) Target Price (12M, W) 20,000 Margins of mobile device-related PCBs and server modules are double those of PC- Share Price (09/20/12, W) 12,000 related PCBs. We expect the proportion of these high-margin products (out of Expected Return (%) 66.7 overall revenues) will further expand to 30% in 3Q and 34% in 4Q. For 4Q, we EPS Growth (12F, %) 12.1 forecast SimmtechÊs revenues and operating profit to reach W188.7bn (up 6.5% Market EPS Growth (12F, %) 12.2 QoQ; up 13.8% YoY) and W19.2bn (up 16.1% QoQ; up 24.1% YoY; OP margin of P/E (12F, x) 7.5 10.2%). Simmtech will likely generate earnings momentum in 2H. Market P/E (12F, x) 10.8 KOSDAQ 528.06 Catalyst: MCP and FC-CSP units to grow full-speed in 2013 Market Cap (Wbn) 372 Shares Outstanding (mn) 31 SimmtechÊs growth potential has been overshadowed by the companyÊs significant Avg Trading Volume (60D, '000) 321 PC-related PCB revenues. However, it should be noted that the companyÊs mobile- Avg Trading Value (60D, Wbn) 4 related MCP revenues have grown steadily. Furthermore, its MCP business is likely Dividend Yield (12F, %) 1.7 to achieve economies of scale starting in 2013 (MCP revenues are forecast to Free Float (%) 72.3 52-Week Low (W) 9,700 increase from W25.1bn in 2009, to W49.1bn in 2010, to W73.3bn in 2011, to 52-Week High (W) 15,600 W107.3bn in 2012, and to W168bn in 2013). Beta (12M, Daily Rate of Return) 1.23 Simmtech is slated to enter the flip-chip chip-scale-package (FC-CSP) business in 2H. Price Return Volatility (12M Daily, %, SD) 3.2 Foreign Ownership (%) 9.0 FC-CSPs can be used to produce a variety of mobile-related PCB products. Major Shareholder(s) Simmtech plans to produce: 1) RF chip-related products (starting in 2H12); 2) S.H. Jeon (25.93%) baseband-related products (1H13); and 3) mobile-device application processor (AP) M.J. Lee (9.5%) FC-CSP products (2H13). FC-CSPs are 2~4 times the price of MCPs. National Pension Service (8.61%) Price Performance Valuation: Raise TP to W20,000; Mobile-driven growth should lead to a re-rating (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute 9.1 -18.9 -4.8 For 2012, we expect Simmtech to post revenues of W686.5bn (up 12.1% YoY) and Relative 6.8 -16.4 -13.1 an operating profit of W62.6bn (up 2.5% YoY; OP margin of 9.1%). The companyÊs Key Business annual earnings are likely to recover in 2013 on the back of robust mobile-related Simmtech manufactures and sells memory revenues. We project the companyÊs 2013 revenues and operating profit to reach module PCBs and semiconductor W781.8bn (up 13.9% YoY) and W80bn (up 27.7% YoY; OP margin of 10.2%). packaging substrates. We maintain our Buy call on Simmtech and raise our target price by 11% to W20,000 (from W18,000; based on a 2013F P/E of 10x). We upwardly revised our 2013 net profit estimate by 7.3%. We estimate the companyÊs EPS to grow 26% Share price FY Revenues OP OP Margin NP EPS EBITDA FCF ROE P/E P/B EV/EBITDA 140 KOSDAQ (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (Won) (Wbn) (Wbn) (%) (X) (X) (X) 130 120 12/10 577 85 14.7 71 2,590 111 124 93.2 5.5 3.0 5.2 110 12/11 612 61 10.0 42 1,435 94 56 27.0 8.5 2.1 5.5 100 12/12F 687 63 9.1 49 1,608 97 56 24.7 7.5 1.7 5.0 90 80 12/13F 782 80 10.2 62 2,025 115 69 24.5 5.9 1.3 3.7 70 12/14F 912 94 10.3 75 2,426 128 73 23.7 5.0 1.1 2.8 9/11 1/12 5/12 9/12 Notes: All figures are based on non-consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Sources: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. („Daewoo‰) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Company September 21, 2012 next year. And its 2013 ROE is estimated at 24.5%. We believe the companyÊs shares are deeply undervalued, trading at a 2012F P/E of only 7.5x, and a 2013F P/E of just 5.9x. 2 Company September 21, 2012 Retail (004170 KS) Shinsegae Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Mina Kim Taking on new challenges +822-768-4163 [email protected] Lower TP to W285,000; Maintain Buy call Jieun Lee +822-768-3265 We maintain our Buy call on Shinsegae, but trim our target price by 1.7% to [email protected] W285,000. We are lowering our target price because: 1) we changed the base year for valuation to 2013 (from 2012); and 2) we cut our 2012 and 2013 EPS estimates by 5.2% and 10.1%, respectively. Our downward revisions to earnings estimates stem from expectations that earnings in ShinsegaeÊs department store unit will be weaker than expected amid an economic slump. Buy (Maintain) Target Price (12M, W) 285,000 Using a sum-of-the-parts methodology, we derived our target price by summing the Share Price (09/20/12, W) 220,000 value of ShinsegaeÊs operations and the value of its equity holdings.
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