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Canadian Wireless Market Performance and the Potential Effect of an Additional Nationwide Carrier

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Canadian Wireless Market Performance and the Potential Effect of an Additional Nationwide Carrier Canadian Wireless Market Performance and the Potential Effect of an Additional Nationwide Carrier PREPARED FOR Competition Bureau Government of Canada PREPARED BY Kevin C. Hearle Giulia C. McHenry James D. Reitzes Jeremy Verlinda Coleman Bazelon May 12, 2014 The Competition Bureau of the Government of Canada has engaged The Brattle Group to evaluate the competitiveness of the Canadian wireless market to provide evidence in relation to the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission’s (CRTC’s) review of wholesale mobile wireless services in Telecom Notice of Consultation CRTC 2014-76. We each acknowledge that it is our duty to provide evidence in relation to this proceeding as follows: to provide opinion evidence that is fair, objective and non-partisan; to provide opinion evidence that is related only to matters that are within our area of expertise; and, to provide such additional assistance as the Commission may reasonably require, to determine a matter in issue. We each acknowledge that the duty referred to above prevails over any obligation which we may owe to any party by whom or on whose behalf we are engaged. We acknowledge the valuable contributions of many individuals to this report and to the underlying analysis, including Maura Coughlin, Prateik Dalmia, Daniel Gaynor, Sarah Germain, Yonah Meiselman, and Ann Murray. Finally, all results and any errors are our responsibility and do not necessarily represent the opinion of The Brattle Group, Inc. or its clients. Kevin C. Hearle Giulia C. McHenry James D. Reitzes Jeremy Verlinda Coleman Bazelon Dated May 12, 2014 Copyright © 2014 The Brattle Group, Inc. Table of Contents I. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 II. Status of Canadian Wireless Industry......................................................................................... 4 A. Overview of industry ......................................................................................................... 5 B. International Wireless Performance Comparisons .......................................................... 9 III. An Assessment of the Profitability of Canadian Wireless Carriers ........................................ 18 A. IRR Calculation for TELUS Wireless .............................................................................. 19 B. IRR Calculation for Rogers Wireless .............................................................................. 23 C. IRR Conclusions ............................................................................................................... 26 IV. Potential Entry Effects of an Additional Carrier ..................................................................... 27 A. Verizon Entry Event Study ............................................................................................. 29 B. Logit Model Price Predictions ......................................................................................... 33 1. Logit Model Description ......................................................................................... 33 2. Competitive Effects of Entry .................................................................................. 35 a. Share and Market Concentration ................................................................. 35 b. Changes in Surplus: Prices, Profits, and Consumer Surplus ....................... 37 c. Market Growth and Wireless Penetration ................................................... 41 C. Costs of Network Buildout in Relation to Spectrum Allocation ................................... 44 1. Effect of an Additional Nationwide Carrier .......................................................... 47 2. Effect of No Additional Nationwide Carrier ......................................................... 49 3. Total Expenditure Savings ...................................................................................... 52 V. Summary .................................................................................................................................... 54 A. Conclusions....................................................................................................................... 54 B. Caveats .............................................................................................................................. 54 i | brattle.com C. Next Steps ......................................................................................................................... 55 Appendix A. Profitability Analysis .................................................................................................... 57 A. TELUS IRR Calculation ................................................................................................... 57 1. Construction of TELUS Free Cash Flow ................................................................ 57 2. TELUS Wireless IRR Calculations ......................................................................... 61 3. TELUS WACC Calculation .................................................................................... 62 B. Rogers Wireless IRR Calculation .................................................................................... 65 1. Rogers Wireless Free Cash Flows and IRR Calculation ........................................ 65 2. Rogers Wireless Projected Cash Flows .................................................................. 66 3. Rogers Wireless WACC Calculation ..................................................................... 67 Appendix B. Calibration of the Logit Model ..................................................................................... 71 A. Model details .................................................................................................................... 71 1. Consumer Demand ................................................................................................. 71 2. Firm Pricing Behavior ............................................................................................ 72 B. Data and Assumptions ..................................................................................................... 73 1. Data .......................................................................................................................... 73 2. Assumptions ............................................................................................................ 76 C. Parameter Calibration Methodology .............................................................................. 77 1. Pre-Entry Conditions ............................................................................................. 77 2. Entrant parameters ................................................................................................. 78 D. Penetration and Consumer Surplus Effects of Entry ..................................................... 80 E. Detailed Share and Price Effects Across Event Study Scenarios ................................... 80 Appendix C. Network Modeling ........................................................................................................ 82 A. LTE Network Model ........................................................................................................ 82 1. Coverage .................................................................................................................. 83 ii | brattle.com 2. Cell Sites .................................................................................................................. 85 3. Spectrum ................................................................................................................. 86 4. Calibration ............................................................................................................... 87 B. Network Expansion Experiments .................................................................................... 90 1. Network growth ..................................................................................................... 90 2. Market Share of New Entrant ................................................................................ 90 3. Additional Spectrum ............................................................................................... 91 4. Output ..................................................................................................................... 93 Appendix D. Verizon Event Study ..................................................................................................... 95 Appendix E. Report Authors’ Curriculum Vitae ............................................................................... 97 iii | brattle.com I. Introduction We have been asked by the Canadian Competition Bureau to evaluate the competitiveness of the Canadian wireless “market”.1 The competitiveness of any market, but especially the competitiveness of a wireless market, is a complicated issue. Recent studies by Jeffrey Church and Andrew Wilkins2 (C&W 2013), Navigant Economics3 (Navigant 2013), and others suggest that there is limited opportunity to further enhance competition in the Canadian wireless sector, particularly through entry of additional carriers. Moreover, certain policies proposed to enhance competition may actually harm consumers or be infeasible due to the lack of a profit opportunity awaiting potential entrants. We first assess existing market power in the Canadian wireless sector based on
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