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More than and drink: Careers in

n restaurants, the food’s the thing. But the drinks, presentation, Drew Liming service, and ambience are important, too. And it’s up to Irestaurant workers to provide diners with a square that’s well rounded. The hard work of the , , and dining-room staff gets food and drink from to mouth. Some of the more visible workers may include waiters and waitresses (also known as servers), busboys, hosts and hostesses, , and . Less visible staff includes chefs, cooks, managers, dishwashers, and janitorial and office staff. All have a role in helping to make a diner’s experience pleasant. Drew Liming is an This article begins with an overview of the restaurant industry. economist in the Office of Occupa- It then looks at four occupations—cooks, executive chefs, servers, tional Statistics and bartenders—and describes their job duties; employment, and Employment Projections, BLS. wages, and outlook; and skills and training. You’ll learn what He is available at working in a restaurant is like, including its challenges and (202) 691-5262 or liming.drew@bls. rewards. Suggested resources for additional information on gov. restaurant careers are at the end.

22 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Spring 2009 More than food and drink: Careers in restaurants

latter type of establishment that is the focus of the occupations covered in this article. The restaurant Popular belief holds that new restaurants struggle to survive, and many close their industry doors within the first couple of years. Al- The restaurant industry doesn’t just feed though restaurants are difficult to run, their people; it also employs them. In fact, the food failure rate is reported to be about 60 per- and places industry, as defined by the cent—similar to the failure rate for all new U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), had businesses. more than 9 million workers in 2007, making this industry one of the largest employers in the country. Restaurant The food and drinking places indus- try includes bars, fine dining—and occupations everything in between. Limited-service eat- The following pages describe the job duties, ing places, such as and employment, wages, outlook, and skills and establishments, employ about 43 percent of training of cooks, executive chefs, servers, workers in food and drinking places. The and bartenders. Job titles vary depending on smallest segment of the industry comprises the type and size of the restaurant, but work- special food services, such as caterers and ers in these occupations have some similar food-service contractors, and drinking places, responsibilities. including and nightclubs. High turnover in most restaurant occupa- Full-service restaurants—in which diners tions means that prospective workers usually order, are served, and eat while seated— have excellent prospects. And because res- employ almost 48 percent of workers in the taurants are in nearly every town or city, jobs food and drinking places industry. It is this should be widely available.

Spring 2009 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 23 testing the final product—to create menu Cooks items. And to make some dishes, cooks might Restaurant cooks turn the food orders they need to arrive several hours before serving receive from servers into appetizing — begins. In addition to , preparations often while racing the clock. Some cooks are might include a daily briefing from the execu- referred to as chefs, usually because they have tive on menu changes or kitchen per- additional skills or responsibilities. (See, for formance. Cooks also use their prep time to example, executive chefs, described in more ensure that all of the equipment in their work detail beginning on the next page.) areas is clean and fully functional. For cooks, the kitchen’s pace becomes Restaurant cooks use special, industrial- hectic before diners arrive. “You’re always grade equipment to prepare food. For ex- busy,” says Jon Gatewood of Ludlow, Ver- ample, they might use step-in coolers, high- To fill diners’ orders, cooks mont, who has worked as a . “There were quality knives, and meat slicers and grinders. either prepare a from times when we were finishing prep work even And most restaurants have multiple sets of scratch or combine ready- as the doors opened for business.” heavy-duty ovens and stovetop burners that made items. Cooks follow recipes in preparing, mea- cooks use to prepare dishes simultaneously. suring, and mixing ingredients—and, often, In most , cooks are assigned to different stations, such as deep fryer, broiler, or vegetables. Some restaurants may also have cooks who specialize in a type of food and work on a single , such as pastries or soup. Cooks may collaborate on a dish or work individually. Either way, they frequently work together under the direction of executive chefs or their assistants, sous chefs. The true test of kitchen skills is in efficiently filling orders. Cooks receive din- ers’ orders, called meal tickets, from servers. To complete the ticket, cooks either prepare a dish from scratch or combine ready-made items. Many diners expect that when a server brings their order from the kitchen it will be pleasing to the eye, as well as to the palate. It is the cook’s task to arrange the food into an artistic presentation. During mealtime in a busy restaurant, cooks are constantly in motion and must often change tasks while working on multiple meal tickets simultaneously. It’s a steady pace that lasts awhile. “We’d be very busy for 3 or 4 hours,” says Gatewood of his work as a cook. “There really weren’t any breaks.” Even with all that activity, cooks must ensure that their work areas remain tidy and hygienic. Doing so saves time and money: It allows them to work efficiently without hav- ing to search for utensils or ingredients, and it prevents the need to remake a meal ruined by unsanitary conditions.

24 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Spring 2009 After serving hours, cooks also must niques—and may help give young cooks an clean the kitchen. Depending on the restau- edge in jobseeking. Even experienced cooks rant, cooks might supervise cleaning work- may benefit from taking classes to hone and ers or do the cleanup themselves. And cooks update their skills. sometimes use this time to prepare for the As with any job, however, a cook’s suc- next day’s work. cess might start with a lucky . Dean Employment, wages, and outlook. Ac- Thomas of San Diego, California, got his cording to BLS, there were almost 700,000 first cooking job while working as a restau- full-service restaurant cooks employed in the rant dishwasher. One day, he was asked to United States in May 2007. Their median fill in for a cook and was told to join the line. annual wage was $20,970 in May 2007, with Thomas, now certified as both an executive the lowest 10 percent earning $15,040 or less. chef and a culinary educator, has been in the The highest paid 10 percent earned $29,610 kitchen ever since. or more. Employment of restaurant cooks is Executive chefs projected to grow 12 percent overall between The domain of executive chefs spans both the 2006 and 2016, about as fast as the average kitchen and the office. Executive chefs usually for all occupations. have years of experience as cooks and, after Skills and training. Restaurant cooking finding success on that level, are ready to as- requires a combination of skills and knowl- sume responsibilities outside of the kitchen. edge. Some of these are best acquired on the Although both executive chefs and cooks job, but others may be learned through formal are kitchen experts, executive chefs are also training. responsible for behind-the-scenes work. “The Some kitchen skills, such as basic cook- primary difference between a chef and a cook ing ability, may be expected even for entry- is paperwork,” says executive chef Steve level workers in these jobs. But succeeding as Armstrong of Enfield, North Carolina. “An a restaurant cook requires more than culinary executive chef does all the things to keep the talent. For example, collaborating with other restaurant running that you don’t see on the cooks requires strong communication and plate.” teamwork skills. Good manual dexterity, Thomas agrees, specifying the executive attention to detail, and the ability to do many chef’s broad range of possible duties. “Any tasks at once, often quickly, are also essential. executive chef in any operation needs to be Finding a mentor is a great way for young a jack-of-all-trades,” he says. “Sometimes cooks to learn. And, contrary to popular you’re a chef. Other times, maybe a belief, not all chefs are temperamental. “My resources consultant, purchaser, businessman, first mentor never exhibited that classic chef or health inspector.” In some establishments, temper you see on television,” says Gatewood. these tasks are handled by restaurant manag- “He was always very level-headed and never ers or owners. lost his cool on the line, and I modeled my Executive chefs are divided into two career on him.” categories: “working” and “nonworking.” The Because many cooking skills are learned two types differ in how much time they spend on the job, a good mentor can impact a cook’s in the kitchen and on administrative duties. development. A mentor is also useful as a Working executive chefs prepare food along- career resource, providing both introductions side their cooks during mealtime. Nonwork- to other chefs and recommendations for jobs. ing executive chefs, especially in larger res- To refine skills and gain credentials, cooks taurants, are busy with administrative duties. may also attend culinary schools and other Executive chefs make most of the credential programs. Culinary schools and restaurant’s administrative decisions. These programs teach different and tech- decisions include designing the menu, setting

Spring 2009 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 25 Employment of chefs and head cooks is projected to grow 8 percent overall during the 2006–16 decade, more slowly than the aver- age for all occupations. But most of the new jobs for these workers are expected to be in full-service restaurants. Skills and training. Running a kitchen requires both general skills and specialized knowledge. Most executive chefs have gained these skills and knowledge through training or experience working as cooks or in other restaurant jobs. Communications skills, especially for leading and directing the kitchen staff, are im- portant for executive chefs. “Long-term suc- cess results from awareness of other people,” says chef Scott Neuman of Portland, Oregon. “You have to be able to get your staff to work well as a team and convince them we’re all in this together.” Executive chefs also need to be effective communicators to negotiate with prices, reviewing food and beverage pur- vendors and suppliers. Executive chefs delegate chases, and planning special menu items. Prospective executive chefs should also some tasks to sous chefs Most executive chefs are also responsible for learn the business of restaurant work. Admin- istrative skills, such as accounting and em- and cooks. interviewing and hiring prospective kitchen workers and investing in employee develop- ployee counseling, are important to keep the ment and training. restaurant running. Executive chefs must also During mealtime, the chef may do admin- know how to direct staff and delegate tasks. istrative work or, depending on how busy the Many executive chefs first gain managerial restaurant is, help the cooks in the kitchen. experience by working as sous chefs. Executive chefs can’t oversee everything that Cooks who are interested in advancing occurs during mealtime, so they must delegate to executive chef positions should commit some tasks to sous chefs or cooks. to practicing new recipes. Because executive After the day’s cooking shifts are com- chefs are often responsible for developing plete, the executive chef gives and receives a menu, they must be able to create unique feedback from cooks, initiates cleanup, and that are easily reproduced. logs the day’s sales. As with cooks, executive chefs don’t Employment, wages, and outlook. BLS necessarily need to attend school. However, data show that in May 2007, there were about credential programs provide their students 50,000 chefs and head cooks—the occupation with specialized knowledge. And continued that includes executive chefs—employed in learning keeps chefs updated with new tech- full-service restaurants in the United States. niques, business models, and recipes. They had a median annual wage of $34,970 in May 2007, with the lowest earning 10 percent Servers making $20,720 or less. However, chefs and Servers are a restaurant’s frontline workers. head cooks may also earn bonuses, based on Their interactions with customers may turn sales volume and revenue. The highest paid new diners into regular ones. What comes 10 percent earned $60,770 or more. from the kitchen may get diners’ attention, but

26 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Spring 2009 the serving staff gives them the restaurant’s orders; to present drinks and food, sometimes first impression. in several courses; to check on diners during As the link between the and the meal; and to bring the bill after everyone the kitchen, servers affect a diner’s experi- has finished . In most restaurants, dining ence. Servers interact with diners several tables are divided into groups, or stations, times per visit, but knowing when and how to based on the number of servers working the approach each table isn’t always easy. “Con- shift. Servers wait on the diners seated at sumers have an internal clock that says when tables in their assigned station. they expect to receive service,” says server When diners are ready to order, servers Paul Paz of Beaverton, Oregon. “Anticipating must be prepared to answer questions about customers’ needs is a difficult skill to learn.” menu items—and to ask diners to choose Shortly after diners are seated, servers among options that may be available to them, greet them and may take orders for drinks such as types of salad dressing or side dishes. and appetizers. Because servers attempt to Diners who are indecisive may ask servers customize dining experiences, they tailor their for advice. If this happens, servers use their behavior to diners’ preferences. For example, knowledge of the restaurant’s dishes to sug- To customize the some diners enjoy conversing with their gest items that fit the diners’ tastes. dining experience, server; others prefer more restraint. The best Servers bring food to diners’ tables, some- servers figure out their customers’ preferences times with flourish. Knowledgeable servers servers assess diners’ and adjust accordingly. might describe how the food was created in preferences and tailor Servers usually stop by a table several the kitchen. “It’s not just about how the food interactions to match. times during a meal: to take food and drink tastes,” says Bernard Martinage, president of

Spring 2009 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 27 the Federation of Dining Room Professionals maneuvering through a busy dining room. in Fernandina Beach, Florida. “Diners want Servers must also be personable, well theater.” groomed, and neatly dressed and should enjoy Servers check on tables throughout the interacting with diners. meal to ensure that diners are satisfied and to Restaurants may differ in their specific remove any finished items. Toward the end of practices, but many serving techniques are the meal, servers may take orders for common. And some techniques that are taught or after-dinner drinks. After these are finished, on the job may require practice outside work- the server brings diners the bill and collects ing hours. For example, maneuvering trays payment. full of food can be difficult. Paz trains by The extent of service provided by servers carrying a tray with multiple plates, each with may depend on the type of restaurant, its vol- several golf balls on it, to simulate a sauce or ume of business, and the availability of floor delicate part of a dish. As he walks around a staff. For example, some servers know which room, Paz keeps the tray balanced to prevent fit well with certain . But at other the golf balls from rolling around on the restaurants, such suggestions are the job of the plates. restaurant’s , an expert in pairing Many servers gain experience in infor- food and . In addition, some restaurants mal restaurants and use their experience to focus server duties more narrowly by assign- advance to more prestigious—and pricey— ing different staff members to deliver food, restaurants. Skilled servers are more likely to refill water glasses, or clear tables. make a career in fine dining. Employment, wages, and outlook. Ac- In addition to getting on-the-job training, cording to BLS, there were about 1,750,000 servers can enroll in certification programs. waiters and waitresses (servers) employed in The number of these programs has been full-service restaurants in the United States increasing as restaurants place more empha- in May 2007. Their median annual wages, sis on training their dining-room staff. “The including tips, were $15,800 in May 2007. industry has been becoming more formal,” The lowest earning 10 percent made $13,090 says Martinage. “And the number of educa- or less, and the highest paid 10 percent earned tion programs is rising to meet the needs of $27,700 or more. restaurant managers and servers.” Those data include wages for many serv- Not surprisingly, the number of career ers who are in the occupation temporarily; servers with culinary and college degrees career servers at upscale restaurants have is also increasing. Upscale restaurants may the potential for higher earnings. For most prefer servers who have culinary degrees: The servers, higher earnings result from receiving training helps servers translate diners’ desires more in tips, not higher hourly wages. Be- into kitchen terminology that cooks can cause tips are usually calculated as a per- understand. And sometimes, culinary school centage of diners’ bills, servers at expensive students might start training to be chefs but restaurants generally earn more. discover that they prefer interacting with Employment of waiters and waitresses is diners. projected to increase 11 percent overall during In some States, servers must pass an the 2006–16 decade, about the average for all server education course before being occupations. certified to serve alcoholic beverages. States Skills and training. Most servers receive also vary in their minimum age requirements their training on the job, but when hiring, for serving alcohol. employers often seek out applicants with some basic skills. These abilities include Bartenders interacting well with others, following safe Bartenders in restaurants pour and serve food-handling procedures, and carefully mixed drinks, , wine, and other beverages

28 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Spring 2009 to restaurant diners and bar patrons. Although they’re working hard, bartenders also enjoy the social scene. “It’s almost like being a rock star,” jokes Christopher Shelley of Bethesda, Maryland, adding, “You meet a lot of people, and it can be a ton of fun.” During busy periods, many people might order drinks at the same time, and servers also place drink orders from diners. So, bartend- ers must know how to mix a variety of drinks quickly and efficiently, because they usually don’t have time to consult recipes in preparing orders. Their task is even more difficult when Bartenders perform the they receive large numbers of drinks, all of duties of a server when which may require different ingredients and attending to diners seated procedures to make. Attending to diners at the bar or in the at the bar. lounge area requires the bartender to perform the duties of a server: taking food and drink works. In a popular restaurant bar on Friday orders, relaying food orders to the kitchen, and Saturday nights, tips may be substantial. serving the order, and delivering the bill. But there is keen competition for these lucra- In addition, however, bartenders are tive shifts, and they may be assigned based responsible for preparing and serving on seniority. Bartenders at upscale restaurants drinks—not only for those customers, but also usually earn more because their tips, also for others in the bar and restaurant. based on a percentage of the bill, are likely to “Sometimes, I’ll be serving several be higher. customers and the bar at the same time,” says Employment of bartenders is expected Shelley. “I have to make sure everything is to grow 11 percent overall between 2006 and running smoothly at all locations.” 2016, about the average for all occupations. Because bartenders focus on preparing Skills and training. Bartending requires drinks and serving customers, they have few a mix of personality, skills, and on-the-job administrative duties. And during a slow shift, training; experience is also helpful. Formal a bartender may take stock of supplies and training programs are available, but atten- write a list of needed items for the barbacks— dance in them is largely voluntary. Bartenders bartending assistants who don’t serve custom- also might have to meet State requirements. ers. Most administrative decisions involving Bartenders should be friendly and ap- the bar are made by executive chefs or kitchen proachable. Those who are not are unlikely managers. to be tipped well and will find it difficult to Employment, wages, and outlook. There advance to more prestigious restaurants. “A were almost 200,000 bartenders employed in bartender’s success is largely determined by full-service restaurants in the United States in personality,” says Shelley. “I’ve known people May 2007, according to BLS. They had me- who were extremely fast and could handle dian annual wages, including tips, of $17,550 large-volume orders but just didn’t have the in May 2007. The lowest earning 10 percent right personalities.” made $13,850 or less, and the highest paid 10 Some skills are necessary for bartend- percent earned $31,890 or more. ers to have before they come to the job. For Like servers, bartenders depend on tips example, they need to have excellent hand-eye for a large part of their earnings. These tips coordination to work in a small area sur- vary, depending on the shifts a bartender rounded by glass. Bartenders must also be

Spring 2009 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 29 able to memorize complicated drink orders But making a career in a restaurant isn’t and reproduce them without hesitation. easy. Workers in both the kitchen and din- Bartenders learn other skills, especially ing room are subject to two major challenges those specific to the occupation, on the common in restaurant jobs: high levels of job—often through practice. To make mixed stress and often-erratic schedules. drinks, for example, bartenders must master the pour count: the number of seconds it takes Stress a bottle’s spout to pour one ounce of . Satisfying the different demands of many din- Because every type of spout pours at a dif- ers can create a stressful environment for res- ferent rate, bartenders practice until they are taurant workers. Many restaurant employees comfortable with pour counts. enjoy the adrenaline rush, but even longtime Restaurant experience isn’t necessarily a workers admit it can be overwhelming at prerequisite for bartending jobs, but it helps. Many bartenders have previous experience in- times. teracting with customers as servers, for exam- Different restaurant occupations have dif- ple. Shelley was a senior server when he was ferent sources of stress. Cooks, for example, approached about a bartending position. He need to produce quality food consistently. And first worked as a bartender on slow shifts, to unlike many jobs, which may have deadlines familiarize himself with the bar and its duties, every couple of days or weeks, kitchen work before taking busier shifts. Other bartenders must sometimes be completed within min- may start as barbacks to gain experience. utes—and successfully—every time. “You Bartending schools are another way to have to get excited about every order, day in learn basic skills and recipes. These schools, and day out,” says chef Neuman. “You’re only however, are not formally recognized and as good as the last plate you’ve put out.” are not a substitute for practical experience. But it’s not only cooks who feel the But bartending schools may offer classes in kitchen’s heat. Executive chefs have even specialized skills. For example, flair bartend- more responsibility. To many chefs, the added ing, in which bartenders entertain guests by authority is appealing, but it can also be manipulating bar tools and bottles in creative stressful. “When you’re the executive chef, ways, might be difficult to learn without you’re the king,” executive chef Armstrong instruction. says. “But that means when something goes Like servers, bartenders must be of a legal wrong, it’s always your fault.” minimum age to serve alcohol; age require- ments vary by State. Some States also require To experience kitchen stress during that, to serve alcohol, bartenders have certifi- its busiest time, Neuman recommends job cation from State-approved schools. shadowing. He suggests that would-be cooks, especially those considering culinary school, contact a local restaurant and ask to shadow The restaurant a chef or cook to get a feel for the kitchen’s atmosphere during mealtime. lifestyle For servers and bartenders, interaction For those who want to make a career in with customers is a common source of stress. restaurant jobs, satisfying diners makes the These workers rarely have downtime, yet they hard work rewarding. Restaurants play host to are expected to display a pleasant demeanor in many important life events, including engage- all circumstances. “We’re performers, and we ment proposals, business meetings, and birth- have to keep a smile on our faces even when day and anniversary celebrations. “We help we’re stressed or working hard,” says server create memories for people,” says Martinage. Paz. “It can be very difficult, especially for “Every day, we are a part of those memories.” new workers.”

30 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Spring 2009 Even with the stress of a restaurant’s fast pace, many workers enjoy the friendly atmosphere.

Thomas. “It’s not all the glory you see on Schedules television.” In most restaurants, staff schedules are vari- Servers and bartenders usually have flex- able. Workers must cover shifts on weekends ible schedules, and some may work a couple and holidays, as these are often restaurants’ of shifts at multiple restaurants each week. busiest days. And on these occasions, creative Bartenders’ shifts are both long and unusual. workers find ways to please diners. Server Shelley, for example, tends bar for 12-hour Paz, for example, brought a digital camera to shifts on Fridays and Saturdays, from 4 p.m. work one Thanksgiving and offered to take to 4 a.m. And because weekend nights are family pictures of his diners. “Everyone was usually busy, Shelley frequently finds himself thrilled by the offer,” Paz says. “It’s what the on his feet the entire time. hospitality business is all about.” The inconsistent work has other draw- backs for restaurant workers. Many, especially Working on holidays may sound difficult, servers and bartenders, receive hourly wages but even normal days in a restaurant are long. plus tips instead of salaries, and few get A cook’s shift, for example, may require be- benefits through their employers. The result ing at the restaurant for up to 10 hours—with is that many restaurant workers are paid only little time for rest in the rush to meet diners’ for the hours they work and aren’t paid on demands. days they are sick, for example. Usually, large Executive chefs frequently work even corporations are the only employers that may longer than cooks. Most do their inventory provide benefits. and planning work in the mornings and stay Still, not all restaurant workers regard the until dinner service is finished. Many culinary stress and long hours of their jobs as draw- students, unprepared for an executive chef’s backs. For example, many cite the strong workload, find the experience an eye opener. bonds between coworkers that result from “These are long hours,” warns executive chef the challenging circumstances. “At times, the

Spring 2009 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 31 32 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Spring 2009 pressure can make working in a restaurant National Restaurant Association very regimented and militaristic,” says execu- 1200 17 St. NW. tive chef Gatewood. “But the atmosphere Washington, DC 20036 can also be relaxed and family-like, because (202) 331-5900 everyone usually becomes good friends.” [email protected] www.restaurant.org

For more Food Service Interactive 7702 E. Doubletree Ranch Rd., Ste. 300 information Scottsdale, AZ 85285 To learn more about jobs in restaurants, begin (623) 433-9690 paying closer attention to the work atmo- www..com sphere when you dine out. But you’ll also want to visit your public library, school coun- The following associations provide certifi- seling office, or career center. To find a career cation information: center near you, go to www.servicelocator. National Restaurant Association org; call toll free, 1 (877) US2-JOBS (872- Educational Foundation 5627) or TTY 1 (877) 889-5627; or e-mail 175 W. Jackson Blvd., Ste. 1500 [email protected]. The Web site also Chicago, IL 60604 has links to career exploration tools and other Toll free: 1 (800) 765-2122 job-related resources. [email protected] Another helpful source for career www.nraef.org information, available at many libraries and career centers, is the Occupational Outlook American Culinary Federation Handbook. The Handbook is also available 180 Center Place Way online at www.bls.gov/ooh. This resource has St. Augustine, FL 32095 detailed descriptions of hundreds of occupa- Toll free: 1 (800) 624-9458 tions, including some of the ones described in [email protected] this article. www.acfchefs.org Articles in previous issues of the Occupa- tional Outlook Quarterly describe occupations Federation of Dining Room Professionals related to restaurants. “You’re a what? Som- 1417 Sadler Rd., No. 100 melier,” online at www.bls.gov/ooq/2003/ Fernandina Beach, FL 32034 summer/yawhat.pdf, profiles a restaurant Toll free: 1 (877) 264-FDRP (3377) worker whose expertise is pairing wine with food. “You’re a what? Research chef,” online [email protected] at www.bls.gov/ooq/2002/fall/yawhat.pdf, www.fdrp.com describes the work of a chef who develops new recipes for a restaurant chain. National Bartenders’ Association For first-hand information about what (770) 864-7811 it’s like to work in a kitchen, contact a local [email protected] restaurant and ask to speak with the workers www.bartender.org there. Job shadowing, in which you observe a trained worker in an occupation that inter- WaitersWorld ests you, may help you decide if a restaurant 14314 SW. Allen Blvd., No. 507 career is for you. Beaverton, OR 97005 The following associations provide (503) 524-0788 general information for those interested in [email protected] restaurant jobs: www.waitersworld.com

Spring 2009 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 33