CSCA CSCA RETAIL 100 Maurice Yeates, Vincent Kakuk and Tony Hernandez 2019 INTRODUCTION 2014, identifies the top 100 organizations whose economies of scale are sufficient for them to exert a significant influence The CSCA Retail 100 for Fiscal 2018-2019 provides two top on Canada’s retail economy, be it in the form of competi- 100 retail tabulations related to: (i) retail conglomerates (RCG); tive pressures on other firms, or on leasing companies which and, (ii) retail chains (RCH) which are ranked by estimated provide the space in which retailers operate. The CSCA Retail total annual sales (exc. auto) in Canada. Why two tabulations? Chain 100 (RCH100:2018) listing (Table 3) identifies the well- The CSCA Retail Conglomerate 100 (RCG100:2018) listing known banners in the retail environment that depend on the (Table 1 & Figure 1), which has been available annually since immediacies of the market. It is their profitability that drives FIGURE 1. CSCA RETAIL CONGLOMERATES (RCG100:2018) BY NAICS CATEGORY AND ESTIMATED SALES © 2019 CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY the economic performance of the conglomerate to which RCG100: 2018, a period during which national sales increased they belong. The two tables, therefore, are rooted in differ- at an AGR of 2.5% while those for the RCG100 as a whole in- ent aspects of the retail environment. This CSCA Research creased at an AGR of 1.9% (in constant dollars). While both Insight also assesses the impact of 'online' activity on these curves culminate at a similar percentage of national sales when store-based business structures. the sales for their respective 100 agglomerations are summed (71.3% for 2014 and 70.0% for 2018), the 'paths' to these val- Apart from estimated sales, the tabulations also include infor- ues are crucially different. Whereas the top ten conglomerates mation related to the number of stores, retail space occupied, in 2018 contributed 48% of national sales, in 2014 the top ten and estimated employment in the conglomerate or chain in- contributed 43%. On the other hand, conglomerates ranked volved. The chief source for information about listed (primar- from the 26th to100th in RCG100:2014 contributed a larger ily TSX, NYSE) retail companies are their Conglomerate Annual share of national sales than those in RCG100:2018. Figure 2, Reports. This data, though usually store-based, includes oc- therefore, signals clearly that the largest conglomerations are casional information about Direct to Consumer (DtC) sales. becoming more dominant while businesses ranked lower than Similar information, though far less comprehensive, is avail- the 26th in 2018 are contributing less to national sales than able for non-listed (i.e., off-shore and/or privately-held) com- those in 2014. panies. The data for large conglomerates is aggregated for reporting purposes to the company as a whole even though This increasing dominance appears to have come about it may involve many economic divisions and sales in different through: (i) closures -- being defined as those present in countries. Thus, information for the Canadian component of- RCG100:2014 not present in the RCG100:2018 nor in CSCA's ten requires partitioning. The Canada-wide CSCA Major Retail MRC 2018 database; and, (ii) acquisitions – those present in Chain (MRC) Database, updated quarterly for approximately the RCG100:2014 becoming part of a conglomeration in the 300 Conglomerates operating more than 45,000 stores in to- RCG100:2018 listing. Closures include seven conglomer- tal, is exceedingly useful for this purpose. This CSCA MRC Da- ates with $6.6b sales in 2014, of which Target Canada ($1.3b) tabase includes data on the number of stores in a chain, the and Sears Canada ($4.2b) have been widely reported and space these stores occupy, and its parent conglomerate. Frag- discussed². Acquisitions include ten Conglomerates (with mentary data related to employment for particular stores is in- $37.3b sales in RCG100:2014) purchased by other businesses terpolated to others of the same NAICS type on an employee in the RCG100:2018 listing (Table 2). Thus, for example, when per sq. ft. basis. Weston purchased Shoppers Drug Mart in 2014 for $12.4b it gained annual sales of $10.9b; and, when Metro purchased Le CSCA RETAIL CONGLOMERATE (RCG) 100 Group Jean Coutu it gained annual sales of $4b. This growth by acquisition in a sluggish retail economy has interesting conse- The RCG100 canvas for 2018 (Table 1) collectively accounts in quences for one of the intentions during such periods is often Fiscal 2018/2019 for 405 retail chains, involving 509m sq. ft. store rationalization. Furthermore, with ten Conglomerates of retail space, 32,376 stores, 1.2m full and part-time employ- in the RCG100:2014 absorbed by eight Conglomerates in ees, and $262b sales (store-based including some DtC). The the RCG 100:2018 listing, it in effect creates space in the 100 RCG100:2018 share of national sales was 70% in 2018. Table without losing the sales of those absorbed. If retail activities in 1 and Figure 1 (by 3-digit NAICs categories)¹ indicate that five Canada were flourishing, the 100 would have been rounded by conglomerates (Weston, Costco, Empire, Walmart, and Metro) larger enterprises than those currently existent and the 2018 dominate the country’s retail economy with 36% of national curve in Figure 2 could have ended above that for 2014. sales. Most of the largest Conglomerates tend to be involved in three categories – general merchandise (NAICS 452), grocer- Retail activities in Canada, as with the national economy in ies & beverages (NAICS 445), and health & personal care (NA- general, are much affected by ‘off-shore’ investments, particu- ICS 446). The bubble chart also emphasizes, with its plethora larly from the US. During the 2010-2014 period, when there of 'tiny bubbles', the large number of relatively small conglom- was close to parity between the US and Canadian dollars, erations in the clothing & accessories and shoes sector. We north-to-south cross-border shopping flourished and US com- note later that this sector is under great pressure from 'online' panies tended to wait at home for the market to come and Ca- sales, and is moving quickly into DtC brands and operations. nadian retailers tended to gain share in the Canadian market³. In the middle part of the 2010s, the falling value of the C$ vis-à- An indication of the extent of turmoil in the retail sector is vis the US$ effectively discouraged Canadians from shopping summarized by the traces in Figure 2 for RCG100:2014 and in the US. There was, therefore, a tendency for some US retail- 1 Statistics Canada (2012) North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Canada (Ottawa: Cat.12-501-X). ² Emmons, M. and T. Hernandez (2017) The Absorption of Target’s Former Store Portfolio in Canada (Toronto: Ryerson University, CSCA). Target was in Canada, having assumed many Zellers leases, from 2011 to 2015. ³ Daniel, C. and T. Hernandez (2015) The CSCA Retail 100: 2014 (Toronto: Centre for the study of Commercial Activity), p. 6. © 2019 CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY 2 451 444 443 442 448 446 448 448 445 448 448 451 443 444 451 445 442 448 448 444 453 442 446 445 442 445 445 443 452 444 446 444 NAICS Code 5 3 1 2 7 3 7 2 2 4 53 7 444, 445 1 448, 453 1 727 446, 448 2 448, 451 442, 448 41 445, 452 5 2 2 1 1 5 1 1 2 448, 452 2 7 445, 452 4 445, 446 1 7 442, 452 8 2 1 1 43 442, 444 442, 448 9 2 452, 445 2 452, 445 15 1713 448, 451, 452 445, 446 11 33 445, 446, 448 27 445, 446 Chains Number of Number of Employees 42 1,235 5767 4,271 1,770 29 3,000 16 3,823 3264 1,814 4,200 94 1,786 49 3,400 31 4,032 12 2,621 19 6,500 204265 7,000 5,898 264 1,394 299 11,845 360544 5,000 7,406 600 7,199 122 2,864 406139381 7,650 5,912 12,761 234 5,188 283138577 7,946 5,178 5,859 246274 7,991 1,809 131 4,142 303650 8,322 7,780 110 3,028 622 2,219 151 18,473 263177 26,158 10,728 182484 32,887 29,854 649 36,947 411 97,179 100 32,361 Stores Number of TABLE 1. CSCA RETAIL CONGLOMERATE 100 (RCG 100:2018) PROFILE 557 793 320 209 194 (000s) Space Sq. Ft. 623 1,379 923 2,900 648 1,387 628 831782765765 1,108 2,433 2,217 1,246 747742 5,412 1,313 740 1,796 681 1,770 677 2,352 660 1,987 652 643 732 1,067 737729 1,151 1,0471,024 2,366 2,416 1,536 3,220 1,2001,070 1,767 3,589 2,0641,6671,614 8,005 1,498 4,176 7,506 1,382 3,321 2,6852,226 13,840 2,511 2,821 4,314 2,162 24,157 2,390 4,874 2,850 2,950 3,046 1,169 3,5493,377 12,520 18,290 1,225 19,300 4,9044,146 8,106 3,785 6,100 12,304 1,076 20,918 9,1918,408 9,8474,992 19,110 2,343 12,839 24,229 8,417 24,671 14,38310,496 26,337 33,174 1,547 1,425 89,999 89,276 24,011 60,402 45,83625,142 66,774 41,561 2,609 1,994 199,192 124,684 26,689 14,477 Retail Sales (C$ Millions) 3 Chapters, Indigo Books & Music, Coles The Book People Tim-Br Mart, IRLY Building Centres, Pro Hardware Reitmans, Penningtons, Addition-Elle L'Aubainerie Concept Mode, Entrepot Visions Electronic Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic Apple Store Groupe BMR Familiprix Extra, Pharmacy, Clinique Urban Planet, Suzy Shier, Bluenotes Bath & Body Works, Victoria's Secret, La Senza Michaels, Gymboree, Canada Goose Urban Barn, Warehouse One, Ricki's Bass Pro Shops, Cabela's Giant Tiger, Scott's Discount Bulk Barn BMTC Brault & Martineau, EconoMax H & M, COS Kent Building Supplies PetSmart Northern Stores, Northmart Aritzia, Wilfred, TNA Co-op Food Stores, Home Calgary Toys 'R' Us, Golf Town, Sporting Life Staples, Nine West, Talbots Banner (selected examples for multi-chain conglomerates) Nordstrom, Nordstrom RACK Lululemon, ivivva athletica Leon's Furniture, The Brick, Brick Outlet Pharmasave Ikea, Ikea Pickup London Drugs, MarketPlace IGA, Fresh St.