DOCSLIB.ORG

Nepal's Showdown

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Nepal's Showdown NEPAL: ELECTING CHAOS Asia Report N°111 – 31 January 2006 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 II. THE ROYAL OFFENSIVE........................................................................................... 2 A. THE ROYAL CEO DOES WHAT HE HAS TO DO.....................................................................2 B. A BELLIGERENT PALACE ......................................................................................................3 C. SHADES OF 1990...................................................................................................................5 D. THE MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS .................................................................................................6 III. THE OPPOSITION........................................................................................................ 8 A. THE MAOISTS MOBILISE .......................................................................................................8 B. “STRIKING THE HEAD”..........................................................................................................8 C. THE PARTIES PROTEST........................................................................................................10 IV. LOCAL POLLS: MEANINGFUL DEMOCRACY?................................................ 11 A. WHAT’S WRONG WITH ELECTIONS? ...................................................................................11 B. BASIC BENCHMARKS ..........................................................................................................12 C. LESSONS FROM OTHER CONFLICTS .....................................................................................13 D. DON’T JUMP THE GUN ........................................................................................................14 V. THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE ................................................................................ 15 VI. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................. 17 APPENDICES A. MAP OF NEPAL ...................................................................................................................18 B. MAP OF MUNICIPAL POLL LOCATIONS................................................................................19 C. MAP OF JANUARY 2006 SECURITY INCIDENTS ....................................................................20 D. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .......................................................................21 E. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA...............................................................22 F. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ...................................................................................24 Asia Report N°111 31 January 2006 NEPAL: ELECTING CHAOS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Nepal’s royal government is inviting confrontation by planned. They have demonstrated that they remain a force forcing through, amidst a new crackdown on civil liberties, to be reckoned with, and their attacks on major cities municipal elections on 8 February 2006 which will not undermine the government’s claim that it has broken their be free, fair or credible. Filling local posts with palace back and rendered them incapable of serious trouble. Most placemen will neither restart the national democratic importantly, they are still the only political player with a process, nor bring a peace process closer. The conflict coherent strategy. remains soluble: although the palace has refused to reciprocate a four-month Maoist ceasefire and the rebels Despite the promise held out by the November 2005 seven have resumed their armed campaign, mainstream parties parties-Maoist agreement, there is a fundamental dispute and the Maoists have agreed a roadmap which permits over how to progress towards peace. The traditional view compromise with the monarchy. But after one year of royal that the palace and parties must first unite and then deal rule and ten years of insurgency, the priority should be with the Maoists is still supported in certain quarters, most that peace process, not polls for offices with little power vocally the U.S. Others, not least the mainstream parties that all mainstream parties are boycotting. themselves, have given up hope of a stable alliance with the palace and are looking to move more directly to a new Holding elections in any conflict situation is a risky constitutional settlement that can bring the Maoists into undertaking. In Nepal’s case, the polls are only the latest in non-violent competitive politics. a series of moves which have inflamed political tensions and increased the polarisation between the palace and other The combination of peaceful party protests and armed political forces. The mainstream parties retain considerable Maoist action has shaken the royal government and may support and, with the Maoists agreeing not to impede their yet derail its proposed elections. But only a serious activities, are bringing increasing numbers onto the streets. change of course by the palace can dissipate the mood of But Maoist support for the boycott has given the king confrontation. The role of the outside world in forcing a an excuse for a security clampdown and hundreds of non- rethink is crucial. If King Gyanendra is to take it seriously, violent political protestors are still under arrest. The use of international concern, with targeted sanctions against his the army to suppress dissent has brought back memories of family and officials and a review of aid, must be both royal opposition to the 1990 democracy movement. more explicit and more coordinated. From February 2005 onwards, his calculation that he can essentially ignore With the first anniversary of the 1 February 2005 royal external pressure has yet to be proved wrong. coup approaching, the elections are a matter of pride for the king. He is unwilling to compromise, even though far RECOMMENDATIONS fewer candidates have put themselves forward than there are seats available. The local elections are meant to pave To the Royal Government: the way for general elections, which the royal government insists will reinvigorate democracy. But they have been 1. Call off the municipal elections and initiate a planned by a coterie of hardline royalist advisers who were broad-based peace process. active in trying to suppress the 1990 democracy movement and who are set on excluding the parties from power. 2. Take up the UN Secretary-General’s offer to help broker and monitor a durable bilateral ceasefire to The confrontation between an increasingly isolated palace create an environment for serious talks in which and increasingly militant mainstream activists has benefited to test Maoist willingness to compromise, and the Maoists. Since they ended their unilateral ceasefire on seriously consider international offers to assist in 2 January, they have sustained an intense and effective a process of reconciliation, including working military campaign. Their new concentration on small towards viable post-conflict elections. urban attacks has been carefully calibrated and well Nepal: Electing Chaos Crisis Group Asia Report N°111, 31 January 2006 Page ii To the Political Parties: has limited interests in Nepal and is viewed as more objective than India or the U.S., can play an 3. Go beyond the legitimate election boycott to important role in setting benchmarks, which the develop a clear peace agenda that contains a UN is best placed to monitor. positive message for steps to resolve the conflict. 9. Form a loose contact group of key states and the 4. Resolve internal differences over a peace process UN to coordinate policy, leave no room for doubt before conducting further negotiations with the it is united in seeking a peace settlement and return Maoists, agreeing most critically whether to continue to democracy, and make clear to the king that calls for restoration of parliament or move directly support for continuation of the constitutional to an interim government empowered to hold monarchy is neither unconditional nor guaranteed: elections for a constituent assembly. he does not have a blank cheque to veto peace 5. Embrace internal reforms in order to boost initiatives and pursue his project of dismantling organisational capacity and regain public democracy. confidence. 10. Impose targeted sanctions, including travel bans and asset freezes, on the royal family, senior To the Maoists: officials and military officers, and review the army’s lucrative involvement in UN peacekeeping 6. Respect fully stated commitments to observe missions. international humanitarian law and to abide by international development agencies’ Basic 11. Review all development assistance channelled Operating Guidelines. through the government. 7. Offer a concrete plan for disarmament as part of a 12. Give appropriate help to the parties and Maoists if peace process and a renewed ceasefire to create they are prepared to negotiate further towards a the environment for talks. peace process on the basis of their twelve-point agreement; do not stand in the way of third-party To the International Community: facilitation of their dialogue if they want it; and be prepared to help in a tripartite process should 8. Develop a united message that sets benchmarks for the king decide to enter talks. elections
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Asian Centre for Human Rights
    Asian Centre For Human Rights BRIEFING PAPERS ON NEPAL ISSUE No. 3 Embargoed for : 1 September, 2009 Madhes: The challenges and opportunities for a stable Nepal 1. Introduction dispensation. The Sadbhavana Party continues to occupy one ministerial portfolio. One of the least reported, but most significant changes in Nepali politics since the 2006 People’s Movement is the These three Madhesi parties were critical in helping Madhav emergence of the ‘Madhes’ as a political force. With the Nepal form a majority government. Even now, if two of opening of the democratic space, the Madhesis, who largely these parties withdraw support, the coalition runs the risk but not exclusively live in the southern plains and constitute of losing the confidence vote on the floor of the house.6 33 percent of the population1, asserted themselves. The Madhes speak languages like Maithili, Bhojpuri, Awadhi, All these parties have come together on an anti-Maoist Hindi and Urdu2 and have extensive cross-border ties with plank, sharing the belief that the Maoists must be stopped India3. They challenged the hill-centric notion of Nepali in their quest for ‘total state capture’. They have termed the nationalism and staked claim for greater representation in alliance as a broader democratic alliance. But it is riddled the state structure.4 with internal contradictions. After a period of two and a half volatile years which IN THIS ISSUE has seen the repeated formation and fragmentation 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................... 1 of Madhesi parties, the proliferation of militant armed groups in the Tarai, and reluctant measures by 2. THE ISSUES IN MAHDES .....................................
    [Show full text]
  • Underdevelopment and Regional Structure of Nepal -AM
    Book Review Underdevelopment and Regional Structure of Nepal -AM [This is a commentary on the book The Nature of Underdevelopment and Regional Structure of Nepal: A Marxist Analysis written by Baburam Bhattarai and published by Adroit Publishers,Delhi, in the well-known magazine Economic and Political Weekly, November 8-14, 2003, by AM as "Calcutta Diary". We may not necessarily agree with the views of the author.- Ed.] The Viswa Hindu Parishad cannot understand it. Nepal is the only Hindu Kingdom in the world; substantial sections of the people there are of north Indian ethnicity and bear names of Hindu gods and goddesses; the ruling family has long-time links with India and marries into the Rana clan dispersed along the higher and lower reaches of the Indo-Gangetic valley. And yet, Nepal is hardly benevolent land for Hindu chauvinism. Maoist communists, who are engaged in a relentless guerrilla war against the country's regime for the past seven years, control most of the countryside. Even in the national parliament, the second largest party happens to be the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist- Leninist). So, irrespective of whether one applies the criterion of parliamentary or extra-parliamentary influence, Marxists, and not revanchists of the Togadia-Singhal brand, reflect the overwhelming vox populi in Nepal. This clinches several points. Not rapid religious sentiments, but hard economic realities, mould the psyche of a nation. If the chemistry is different in Aryavarta, that is because of an unnatural hiatus between people existing under today's canopy and their consciousness lagging millennia behind.
    [Show full text]
  • 139 4 - 10 April 2003 16 Pages Rs 25
    www.nepalitimes.com #139 4 - 10 April 2003 16 pages Rs 25 Maoists, police and soldiers are rushing home MIN BAJRACHARYA ‘‘‘ to meet families while the Peace bridge peace lasts. in KALIKOT MANJUSHREE○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○○ THAPA athletes have joined a regional few weeks into the ceasefire, volleyball competition. A driver who and Dailekh bazar is trans- weekly plies the Nepalganj-Dailekh ’’’ Out in the open A formed. “Nobody dared to road says hundreds of people who had The Maoist negotiating team hasn’t had a move about like this before,” marvels a fled during the state of emergency are moment to spare as it made its high-profile young man, eyeing the bustle. “The returning. “The Maoists, the police comeback in Kathmandu this week. Maoists didn’t dare come here, and the and the army are rushing back to meet Baburam Bhattarai and Ram Bahadur their families while the peace lasts.” Thapa have been giving back-to-back security forces wouldn’t go to the interviews to media, meeting political villages alone. Now they’re all talking Further afield in Dullu, the scene is leaders and diplomats and reiterating their to one another.” even more festive. Many village men three-point demand for a roundtable A few Maoists are openly attending are stoned on the occasion of Holi, in conference, constituent assembly and an passing-out ceremonies in local schools. flagrant defiance of Maoist puritanism. interim government. A rally in Tundikhel In nearby Chupra village, Maoist “We welcome the talks,” says Maoist on Thursday, two months after the ceasefire agreement, was attended by about 15- area secretary, ‘Rebel’, talking to us at a 20,000 supporters, mainly from outside the hotel close to where a man, high on Valley.
    [Show full text]
  • Reacting to Donald Trump's Challenge
    centro studi per i popoli extra-europei “cesare bonacossa” - università di pavia The Journal of the Italian think tank on Asia founded by Giorgio Borsa in 1989 Vol. XXIX / 2018 Reacting to Donald Trump’s Challenge Edited by Michelguglielmo Torri Nicola Mocci viella centro studi per i popoli extra-europei “cesare bonacossa” - università di pavia ASIA MAIOR The Journal of the Italian think tank on Asia founded by Giorgio Borsa in 1989 Vol. XXIX / 2018 Reacting to Donald Trump’s Challenge Edited by Michelguglielmo Torri and Nicola Mocci viella Asia Maior. The Journal of the Italian Think Tank on Asia founded by Giorgio Borsa in 1989. Copyright © 2019 - Viella s.r.l. & Associazione Asia Maior ISBN 978-88-3313-241-9 (Paper) ISBN 978-88-3313-242-6 (Online) ISSN 2385-2526 (Paper) ISSN 2612-6680 (Online) Annual journal - Vol. XXIX, 2018 This journal is published jointly by the think tank Asia Maior (Associazione Asia Maior) & CSPE - Centro Studi per i Popoli extra-europei «Cesare Bonacossa», University of Pavia Asia Maior. The Journal of the Italian Think Tank on Asia founded by Giorgio Borsa in 1989 is an open-access journal, whose issues and single articles can be freely downloaded from the think tank webpage: www.asiamaior.org. Paper version Italy € 50.00 Abroad € 65.00 Subscription [email protected] www.viella.it Editorial board Editor-in-chief (direttore responsabile): Michelguglielmo Torri, University of Turin. Co-editor: Nicola Mocci, University of Sassari. associate editors: Axel Berkofsky, University of Pavia; Diego Maiorano, National University of Singapore, ISAS - Institute of South Asian Studies; Nicola Mocci, University of Sassari; Giulio Pugliese, King’s College London; Michelguglielmo Torri, University of Turin; Elena Valdameri, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology - ETh Zurich; Pierluigi Valsecchi, University of Pavia.
    [Show full text]
  • Logistics Capacity Assessment Nepal
    IA LCA – Nepal 2009 Version 1.05 Logistics Capacity Assessment Nepal Country Name Nepal Official Name Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal Regional Bureau Bangkok, Thailand Assessment Assessment Date: From 16 October 2009 To: 6 November 2009 Name of the assessors Rich Moseanko – World Vision International John Jung – World Vision International Rajendra Kumar Lal – World Food Programme, Nepal Country Office Title/position Email contact At HQ: [email protected] 1/105 IA LCA – Nepal 2009 Version 1.05 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Country Profile....................................................................................................................................................................3 1.1. Introduction / Background.........................................................................................................................................5 1.2. Humanitarian Background ........................................................................................................................................6 1.3. National Regulatory Departments/Bureau and Quality Control/Relevant Laboratories ......................................16 1.4. Customs Information...............................................................................................................................................18 2. Logistics Infrastructure .....................................................................................................................................................33 2.1. Port Assessment .....................................................................................................................................................33
    [Show full text]
  • Nepal's Maoists: Purists Or Pragmatists?
    NEPAL’S MAOISTS: PURISTS OR PRAGMATISTS? Asia Report N°132 – 18 May 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 II. THE CHANGED MAOISTS......................................................................................... 2 A. THEIR STRATEGIC WEAKNESSES...........................................................................................2 B. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THEIR NEW LINE ................................................................................3 1. Bhattarai’s battle for change.......................................................................................4 2. A messy U-turn..........................................................................................................5 3. Teething troubles .......................................................................................................5 C. THEIR CHANGED AGENDAS ..................................................................................................6 D. RESHAPING RELATIONS AT HOME AND ABROAD...................................................................7 III. CRITICAL COMRADES .............................................................................................. 8 A. INTERNATIONAL ALLIES ........................................................................................................8 B. IDEOLOGICAL
    [Show full text]
  • Pdf | 548.22 Kb
    NEPAL’S NEW ALLIANCE: THE MAINSTREAM PARTIES AND THE MAOISTS Asia Report N°106 – 28 November 2005 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 II. THE PARTIES................................................................................................................ 3 A. OUTLOOK .............................................................................................................................3 B. IMPERATIVES ........................................................................................................................4 C. INTERNAL TENSIONS AND CONSTRAINTS ..............................................................................5 D. PREPARATION FOR TALKS .....................................................................................................7 III. THE MAOISTS .............................................................................................................. 8 A. OUTLOOK .............................................................................................................................8 B. IMPERATIVES ........................................................................................................................9 C. INTERNAL TENSIONS AND CONSTRAINTS ............................................................................10 D. PREPARATION FOR TALKS
    [Show full text]
  • Nepal's Peace Agreement: Making It Work
    NEPAL’S PEACE AGREEMENT: MAKING IT WORK Asia Report N°126 – 15 December 2006 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 1 II. APRIL AFTERMATH................................................................................................... 2 A. FROM POPULAR PROTEST TO PARLIAMENTARY SUPREMACY ................................................2 B. A FUNCTIONAL GOVERNMENT?..............................................................................................3 C. CONTESTED COUNTRY ...........................................................................................................5 III. THE TALKS ................................................................................................................... 6 A. A ROCKY START...................................................................................................................6 1. Eight-point agreement.................................................................................................6 2. Engaging the UN ........................................................................................................7 3. Mutual suspicion.........................................................................................................8 B. THE STICKING POINTS............................................................................................................8 1. Arms
    [Show full text]
  • March 1, 1980
    Regmi Research (Private) Ltd Kathmandu: March 1, 1980. REGHI Rl�SEARCH SERIES Year 12, No. 3 Edited by Mc.cl1.esh C. Regmi Contents Page 1 • Trade and Commereial Taxation in Jumla ••• 33 2. Prithvi Narayan Shah's 4- Victory • • • 2 3. Pritam Shah.of Garhwal • • • 48 Regmi Research (Privat e) Ltd Lazimpat, Kathmandu, Nepal Telephoneo � 1 6927 (For private study and research only; not meant for public sale, distribution, and display). Trade and Commercial 'i'axatiQ.!l.j.. n Jumla Trade Regu1 atJon§l__ _f_Q.t.Jiur;u Extracts from Thek-Thiti Settlement Order for Mugu Village, Shrawan fJadi 4, 1903 (July 18L1-6). Regmi Research CoJ.lectiot4 Vol 80, pp 253-254. ;'The ryots of the fifteen dar".s of Jumla customarily do not visit Patan (for trade). They shall observe this custom in the future also, and continue to trade in Mugu. ,ilf anybody clandestinely visits (:Fatan) from Mugu and Chhapakhola, yayments (dastur) shall-be collected from him at. the same rates as in the case of' Chhapa. i;People who visit the market ([email protected])at f'lugu from Chhapa shall not be prevent,.;d fru.i1 doin:; so by the inhabitants of Mugu, Darma and Humla•. ·., . 11 Tm inhabitants of 1'i.'ugu shall allow those from Jumla to conduct t rade in the traditional manner and collect duties {phuru) at the c ustomary rates. They shall not make any collections in excess. .iThe inhabitants of i>�ugu shal?-- visit Tuduk for purposes of trade only Qnce (a year?) with the permission of the ..Jimmawal.
    [Show full text]
  • Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist
    Communist Party of Nepal – Maoist Central Committee Press Communique A national convention of the revolutionary faction of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) successfully held on June 16-18, 2012 concluded amid inaugural session, closed session and concluding session in the premises of Sherpa Sewa Samaj building in Bouddha, Kathmandu. The programmes run in the historic national convention in which several important decisions have been taken are as follows. 1. 1. Inaugural session: 2. Conducted by comrade C. P. Gajurel, secretary of the UCPN (Maoist), a grand inaugural session, in which there was a huge participation of the masses along with party general secretary comrade Badal, standing committee members comrade Dev Gurung and comrade Netra Bikram Chand, politburo members, central committee members and members of the central advisory committee, was held under the chair of vice chairman comrade Kiran. 3. The inaugural session began with lively and enthusiastic singing of the International by Samana cultural troupe. 4. A one-minute silence was observed to pay emotional tributes to martyrs, who attained martyrdom in the glorious People’s War and various other people’s movements. 5. Vice Chairman comrade Kiran formally inaugurated the convention by lighting a traditional oil-fed lamp and delivered a speech shedding light on the need to build a new type of communist party by breaking relationship with the opportunist group. 6. Standing committee member comrade Netra Bikram Chand (Biplab) delivered a welcome speech and shed light
    [Show full text]
  • Investing in People to Close the Human Capital Gap
    Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Investing inPeopletoClosetheHumanCapitalGap DEVELOPMENTUPDATE NEPAL June 6,2019 June Standard Disclaimer: This volume is a product of the staff of the The World Bank does not guarantee the International Bank for Reconstruction and accuracy of the data included in this work. Development/The World Bank. The findings, The boundaries colors, denominations, and interpretations, and conclusions expressed in other information shown on any map in this this paper do not necessarily reflect the view of work do not imply any judgement on the part the Executive Directors of The World Bank or of The World Bank concerning the legal status the governments they represent. of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundries. Copyright Statement: The material in this publication is copyrighted. All other queries on rights and licenses, Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of including subsidiary rights, should be addressed this work without permission may be a to the Office of the Publisher, The World violation of applicable law. The International Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, The World Bank encourages dissemination of e-mail [email protected]. its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information
    [Show full text]
  • A Case Study of Jana Andolan II in Nepal
    Occasional Paper: Peace Building Series No.1 FutureGenerations Applied Community Graduate School Change and Conservation PeoPle’s ParticiPation in conflict transformation: a case study of Jana andolan II in nePal Bandita Sijapati Social Science Baha February 2009 Occasional Papers of the Future Generations Graduate School explore community-based approaches to social development, health, nature conservation, peace building, and governance. Faculty, alumni, and partner organizations present their field studies and applied research. www.future.edu People’s Participation in Conflict Transformation: A Case Study of Jana Andolan II in Nepal Rise from every village, rise from every settlement To change the face of this country, rise Those who have a pen in hand, bring your pen and rise Those who can play an instrument, bring your instrument and rise Those who have a tool in hand, bring your tool and rise Those who have nothing at all, bring your voice and rise.1 I. INTRODUCTION In April 2006, there was a country-wide people’s movement in Nepal, popularly known as the Jana Andolan II,2 against King Gyanendra’s direct rule3 following a 12-point understanding reached between the Seven Party Alliance4 and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), which was leading a communist insurgency against the state. The 19-day-long Jana Andolan II5 (People’s Movement II) ended direct rule by Gyanendra, forced him to return power to the reinstated parliament, and created a conducive environment for the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the government and the rebel Maoists in November 2006. The success of Jana Andolan II in thus ending the decade-long conflict that had affected all parts of the country has thus been hailed by many as being exemplary of the ways in which engaged citizenry and communities at the local level can have an impact on the resolution and transformation of violent conflict at the national level.
    [Show full text]