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IT Hardware & Global Communications Technology 2014 Outlook: Spending muted, with a Cloud shift to boot January 06, 2014 RECENT WEBCASTS Networking: The Last Bastion of Proprietary IT Profits “Un” clouding Storage – EMC Shines KEY REPORTS Networking: The Last Bastion of Proprietary IT Profits Cisco: Software Defined Disruption IBM – Not so Easy Blue… “Un” clouding Storage – EMC Shines RIMM: A daunting transition to BB10 Qualcomm: LTE Investments to pay off RESEARCH TEAM Kulbinder Garcha – [email protected] Vlad Rom – [email protected] Matthew Cabral – [email protected] Talal Khan – [email protected] Ray Bao – [email protected] Andrew Ruben – [email protected] CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION™ Client-Driven Solutions, Insights and Access DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 06 January 2014 Table of Contents (Click on Titles to Navigate Through Note) Key Calls: IT & Macro: EMC (O/P, $30) Subdued LT outlook IBM (U/P, $160) Cisco (U/P, $20) Cloud: Servers: Deflationary Anemic growth impact ahead Networking: Storage: The last bastion Secular growth intact; of proprietary IT profits EMC shines 2 06 January 2014 Top 5 takeaways for Enterprise IT – 2014 and beyond 1) The macro back drop to IT spending points to muted cyclical recovery. Tech investment continues to operate below trend, both relative to GDP and overall fixed non-residential investment, however short-term indicators including CEO confidence remain mixed. Further, our survey work is consistent with a muted demand environment into 2014, similar to the 1.7% IT growth rate CIOs expected for 2013. 2) Real cloud drivers exist, disruption to incumbents ahead. We believe the eight fold growth in next generation applications presents a real challenge to today’s IT architectures and fundamentally points to demand for delivering IT at substantially lower cost points. We believe the shift to the cloud is much more than a shift from CapEx to OpEx; it ultimately results in a shift to lower cost/higher volume IT architectures, impacting many of today’s traditional IT incumbents. In turn, this pressures the traditional IT market in revenue and margin. 3) Amazon… what we know …the CIA contract is no one off. With revenues of $3.5bn and growing at a clip of 60%+, the threat of large scale public cloud is very real. We demonstrate that along with major internet properties, enterprises all have relationships with AWS will build over time. Specifically we note that Amazon’s increasing scale, innovation and price reductions create a virtuous circle which in the end is deflationary for the traditional IT vendors. 4) Storage: A shift to DIY is underway but despite some capacity shift to the Cloud, traditional storage continues to grow. We estimate that nearly 60% of all shipped capacity is already in non-traditional architectures, specifically in the area of do-it-yourself (DIY) storage Despite this, external storage market still grows nearly 40% per year in capacity terms, which means revenues grow 4% per year, slower than the past but superior to many other areas of IT. We see a cyclical upturn in storage coming, based on increasing levels of utilization. 5) SDN is real and will have an impact over 2-5 years. Four layers of competition threaten traditional gross profit dollars, no matter who wins Networking, in terms of competition, cost structure and profitability is considerably different than other areas of IT, including storage and servers. The onset of SDN will cause the vertically integrated model to change, similar to what occurred in other segments SDN will have impact over 2-5 years but pioneering companies are deploying now Stock recommendations: A long EMC and short IBM / Cisco position makes sense: EMC (O/P, TP $30) – A clear winner in storage. EMC is our preferred enterprise play. Despite lower growth than in the past for the end market, storage will still be superior to other areas of hardware. For EMC, we see the company extending its competitive advantage and gaining share over time CSCO (U/P $20) – Software defined disruption. The impact on networking from Software-Defined Networking (SDN) architectures is very real and will accelerate over time, leading to further GM compression IBM (U/P, $160) – Not so easy Blue. Future organic growth will be challenging. We are concerned by deteriorating FCF and a less effective mix up to software. We see relative and absolute downside to $160, even if the company achieves the 2015 $20 EPS roadmap target 3 06 January 2014 Nokia, Qualcomm, and EMC Top Picks; IBM and Cisco top U/Ps Ratings and price targets CS EPS Estimate Share Target Potential Company Ticker CS rating FY13E FY14E price price Upside/downside Lead Analyst IT Hardware EMC Outperform 1.80 2.14 25.07 30.00 20% Kulbinder Garcha FIO Outperform 0.21 -0.21 9.62 15.00 56% Kulbinder Garcha AAPL Neutral 39.63 45.29 553.13 525.00 -5% Kulbinder Garcha HPQ Neutral 3.83 4.58 27.66 30.00 8% Kulbinder Garcha NTAP Neutral 2.28 2.70 40.42 45.00 11% Kulbinder Garcha XRX Neutral 1.08 1.13 11.91 9.50 -20% Kulbinder Garcha IBM Underperform 16.35 18.45 185.53 160.00 -14% Kulbinder Garcha LXK Underperform 3.86 3.66 34.92 30.00 -14% Kulbinder Garcha ELX Underperform 0.73 0.64 7.30 5.50 -25% Vlad Rom QLGC Underperform 0.81 0.84 11.63 8.50 -27% Vlad Rom Global Telecom Equipment QCOM Outperform 4.55 5.06 73.32 85.00 16% Kulbinder Garcha COMM Outperform 1.61 1.66 18.77 20.00 7% Kulbinder Garcha MSI Outperform 4.72 4.14 66.33 70.00 6% Kulbinder Garcha ERIC.B-OME Outperform 4.54 5.65 77.65 94.00 21% Achal Sultania NOK1V-FI Outperform 0.02 0.07 5.86 6.50 11% Kulbinder Garcha ALU-PAR Neutral -0.13 0.03 3.26 2.75 -16% Achal Sultania BBRY Neutral -0.64 -1.09 7.65 7.00 -8% Kulbinder Garcha Networking JNPR Neutral 1.23 1.43 22.48 20.00 -11% Kulbinder Garcha UBNT Neutral 0.92 1.75 45.70 40.00 -12% Kulbinder Garcha GIMO Neutral 0.44 0.39 27.80 32.00 15% Kulbinder Garcha CSCO Underperform 2.02 2.00 22.00 20.00 -9% Kulbinder Garcha Source: FactSet, Credit Suisse estimates 4 06 January 2014 Enterprise IT to grow at 4% LT — Storage to lead 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E CAGR 12-16E Servers 52.8 52.5 50.0 47.4 46.3 44.8 -3.9% % change 7.8% -0.5% -4.8% -5.2% -2.2% -3.3% Storage 22.3 23.4 23.7 25.1 26.2 27.3 3.9% % change 9.1% 5.0% 1.1% 6.1% 4.2% 4.2% Printing 126.4 129.5 129.9 127.5 126.8 125.5 -0.8% % change 1.8% 2.5% 0.3% -1.8% -0.6% -1.0% Services 851.6 870.5 914.8 961.8 1,011.3 1,063.3 5.1% % change 7.4% 2.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% Enterprise Switching & Routing 22.5 23.3 23.7 24.2 25.0 25.7 2.5% % change 1.7% 3.6% 1.6% 2.2% 3.2% 3.1% Total IT Hardware 1,075.5 1,099.3 1,141.9 1,186.0 1,235.5 1,286.6 4.0% % change 6.6% 2.2% 3.9% 3.9% 4.2% 4.1% Service Provider Switching & Routing 14.8 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.9 2.8% % change 7.9% -3.7% 0.9% 3.8% 2.4% 4.1% Overall softness in demand, storage to outshine the rest: Overall IT demand is expected to continue into 2014/2015 at a similar pace experienced in 2013 driven primarily by storage and services Servers face secular growth decline: Following 1% declines in CY12, we expect to see revenues decline 5% in CY13. We think the server industry will continue face unit pressure from virtualization as well as ASP declines driving a -3.9% ’12-’16 revenue CAGR LT storage growth of 4% in spite of impacts from cloud: External storage data grows 40% per annum (traditional Enterprise storage) and we expect revenue to grow at 4% long term in spite of impacts from cloud. For CY13, we expect to see a more back-end loaded year with a revenue growth of 1.1% Expect 2.6% LT revenue growth in aggregate Ethernet Switching & Routing. Looking at combined Switching & Routing, we expect the market to grow at 3% per annum over the next 3 years. Looking one layer underneath those forecasts, we expect modestly faster growth out of service providers offset by modestly slower growth out of enterprises in a challenging environment for IT budgets Source: Gartner, Credit Suisse estimates 5 Macro environment remains uncertain 06 January 2014 Tech spending remains below trend while CEO confidence remains choppy Tech investment remains low …and significantly under trend relative as a % of US GDP… to non-residential fixed investment 6.4% 40% 6.2% 35% 6.0% 5.8% 30% 5.6% 25% 5.4% 20% 5.2% 15% 5.0% 4.8% 10% 4.6% 5% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1961 1969 1978 1986 1995 2003 2012 CEO confidence remains choppy SF Fed tech survey indicates moderate upward trending 80 120 70 110 100 60 90 50 80 40 70 30 60 20 50 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2007 2010 2013 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: BEA, Datastream, The Conference Board, San Francisco Fed 7 06 January 2014 IT spending limited acceleration, storage relatively strong Our survey suggests a limited acceleration in IT spend in 2014… …growth in storage and services expected to be strongest Respondents asked expectations for IT spend growth Respondents asked for view on expected growth in major IT segments 4.0% 7.0% 3.5% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.0% 1.0% -1.0% PCs Printing -2.0% Storage Services 0.5% Software x86 Server -3.0% Networking 0.0% 2013 vs.
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