Hiroshi Komiyama · Koichi Yamada a Platinum Society

Science for Sustainable Societies Hiroshi Komiyama · Koichi Yamada New Vision 2050 A Platinum Society Science for Sustainable Societies Series Editorial Board Editor in Chief Kazuhiko Takeuchi, Ph.D., Director and Project Professor, Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S), The University of Tokyo Institutes for Advanced Study (UTIAS), Chair of the Board of Directors, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan Series Adviser Joanne M. Kauffman, Ph.D., Co-editor in Chief, Handbook of Sustainable Engineering, Springer, 2013 Scientific Advisory Committee Sir Partha Dasgupta, Ph.D., Frank Ramsey Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of Cambridge, UK; Volvo Environment Prize, 2002; Blue Planet Prize, 2015 Hiroshi Komiyama, Ph.D., Chairman, Mitsubishi Research Institute, Japan; President Emeritus, The University of Tokyo, Japan Sander Van der Leeuw, Ph.D., Foundation Professor, School of Human Evolution and Social Change and School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, USA Hiroyuki Yoshikawa, Dr. Eng., Member of Japan Academy; Chairman, The Japan Prize Foundation; President Emeritus, The University of Tokyo, Japan; Japan Prize 1997 Tan Sri Zakri Abdul Hamid, Ph.D., Science Adviser to the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Malaysia; Founding Chair of the UN Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES); Zayed International Prize, 2014 Editorial Board Jean-Louis Armand, Ph.D., Professor, Aix-Marseille Université, France James Buizer, Professor, University of Arizona, USA Anantha Duraiappah, Ph.D., Director, UNESCO Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Education for Peace and Sustainable (MGIEP), India Thomas Elmqvist, Ph.D., Professor, Stockholm Resilience Center and Stockholm University, Sweden Ken Fukushi, Ph.D., Professor, The University of Tokyo, Japan Vincenzo Nazo, Ph.D., Professor, The Sapienza University of Rome, Italy Obijiofor Aginam, Ph.D., United Nations University-International Institute for Global Health (UNU-IIGH), Malaysia Osamu Saito, Ph.D., Academic Director and Academic Programme Officer, United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability (UNU-IAS), Japan Leena Srivastava, Ph.D., Executive Director, The Energy and Resources Institute, India Jeffrey Steinfeld, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus of Chemistry, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA Scope of the Series This series aims to provide timely coverage of results of research conducted in accordance with the principles of sustainability science to address impediments to achieving sustainable societies – that is, societies that are low carbon emitters, that live in harmony with nature, and that promote the recycling and re-use of natural resources. Books in the series also address innovative means of advancing sustainability science itself in the development of both research and education models. The overall goal of the series is to contribute to the development of sustainability science and to its promotion at research institutions worldwide, with a view to further- ing knowledge and overcoming the limitations of traditional discipline-based research to address complex problems that afflict humanity and now seem intractable. Books published in this series will be solicited from scholars working across academic disciplines to address challenges to sustainable development in all areas of human endeavors. This is an official book series of the Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S) of the University of Tokyo. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11884 Hiroshi Komiyama • Koichi Yamada New Vision 2050 A Platinum Society Hiroshi Komiyama Koichi Yamada Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. Center for Low Carbon Society Strategy Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan Japan Science and Technology Agency Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan ISSN 2197-7348 ISSN 2197-7356 (electronic) Science for Sustainable Societies ISBN 978-4-431-56622-9 ISBN 978-4-431-56623-6 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-56623-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018936906 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018. This book is an open access publication. Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Japan KK part of Springer Nature. The registered company address is: Shiroyama Trust Tower, 4-3-1 Toranomon, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105- 6005, Japan Preface: From “Vision 2050” to “New Vision 2050” During the twentieth century, energy-supported material civilization advanced sig- nificantly. This brought about resource depletion and climate change. How should material and energy be utilized in future to bring about global sustainability? In 1999, “Vision 2050” (Komiyama) was depicted as a model that should be pursued half a century into the future. Twenty years have elapsed since the first description of Vision 2050. Fortunately, the world is moving toward Vision 2050. The twenty-first century will probably be a century in which we will seek quali- tative affluence with Vision 2050 as a materialistic base. This lends itself to the specific image of a platinum society that is replete with resource self-sufficiency, coexistence in harmony with nature, life-long self-reliance, diverse options, and free participation. This book presents a “New Vision 2050,” to which the viewpoint of a platinum society has been added to Vision 2050. The concept of “New Vision 2050” is described in this Preface and Chap. 1. Preface (1): Turning Point of Human History Twenty-First Century Is a Special Era Figure 1 shows the global average per capita GDP, life expectancy, and CO2 concentration levels from the year 1000 AD to the present. The three lines depict similar trajectories that rise rapidly upon entering the twentieth century. Given the pace of expansion of human activity, the twentieth century stood out as a very special era. For the most part of their long history, human beings have developed very slowly. During the Greek and Roman eras, humans lived to about 24–25 years old, and even after the passage of more than 2000 years in 1900, the average life expectancy was still only 31 years old, an increase of only a few years. However, in 2011, the average life expectancy came to exceed 70 years. The greatest reason for this was the gains in material wealth––a marked change from the past, where people lacked v vi Preface: From “Vision 2050” to “New Vision 2050” Global per Global average CO2 capita GDP lifespan concentration 90 80 420 80 400 70 70 380 60 60 360 50 50 340 40 320 30 40 20 300 30 10 280 0 20 1850 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 1950 2000 2015 Global per capita GDP (100 GK$/person) Global average lifespan (years) CO2concentration (ppm Fig. 1 Trajectory of Sudden Expansion in Human Development in the 20th Century. (Source: Per capita GDP and average life expectancy created based on Angus Maddison, while CO2 concentration created based on NOAA) clothing, housing, and food. As a consequence, however, human beings now face various problems such as an aging society and have started to alter the earth itself, resulting in such changes like global warming. We are living in a special era of human history. Various Issues A wide range of issues confronts modern society, including aging society, environmental issues, low-growth economy, energy, resources, disparity, unemployment, terrorism, coups, fiscal issues, pension, infectious diseases, obesity, and lifestyle- related diseases. As indicated in Fig. 1, it is thought that the root causes of many of these issues are a reflection of an era of explosive expansion of human activities. In other words, the development of civilization itself appears to be responsible for these issues. While some people suffer from hunger and malnutrition in some parts of the world, the amount of food waste continues to increase, and excessive eating and obesity have become social problems in developed countries. As reflected

Load more