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Global Evs (Overweight) Tesla Reshaping the Industry Landscape 2021 Outlook | November 24, 2020 Global EVs (Overweight) Tesla reshaping the industry landscape Yeon-ju Park [email protected] Chuljoong Kim [email protected] Minkyung Kim [email protected] Hyunwoo Jin [email protected] Jaekwang Rhee [email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Contents [Summary] A world shaped by Tesla 3 I. [2020 review] Tesla and the pandemic 4 II. [2021 outlook] 5 ① Tesla to tighten its grip on the market ② European OEMs to play catch-up ③ Inevitable changes for US OEMs ④ Battery innovation to accelerate ⑤ Opportunity in commercial EVs ⑥ Upside potential of US ESS market ⑦ Potential comeback of lithium ⑧ China transitioning to market competition III. [Medium-term outlook] Transition to gain pace 34 IV. [Investment strategy] Tesla reshaping the landscape 35 V. Global peer valuations 36 VI. [Company analysis] 37 Geely Automobile/LG Chem/Samsung SDI 2 | [2021 Outlook] Global EVs Mirae Asset Daewoo Research [Summary] A world shaped by Tesla Adjusting up our medium-term electric vehicle (EV) penetration rate forecasts 33% Shift to EVs to accelerate Battery innovation driven by Tesla, increased policy support, OEMs’ commitment to EV transition, and more compelling models 29% 21% Penetration 18% 4% 2020F 2025F 2030F 3 | [2021 Outlook] Global EVs Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. [2020 review] Tesla and the pandemic Enhanced growth • In 2020, stocks of companies in the global EV supply chain have outperformed the broader market. potential • In particular, Tesla has outperformed on the back of robust earnings and a stronger growth outlook, supported by increased government subsidies since the COVID-19 outbreak. • Tesla has been setting new sales records and delivering earnings surprises. • Governments in Europe have expanded EV subsidies as part of their stimulus packages. • China, after pledging to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, announced an aggressive target for EV sales by 2035. • EV makers (e.g., Tesla) and Chinese battery suppliers have enjoyed share price rallies. Tesla: 12-month forward EPS consensus YTD share performances of global EV makers/battery suppliers ($) 2021 EPS consensus 2022 EPS consensus (%) 6 400 300 4 200 100 0 2 Tesla BYD CATL LG Chem Samsung SDI 1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20 11/20 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 | [2021 Outlook] Global EVs Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. [2021 outlook] ① Tesla to tighten its grip on the market Tesla’s production • The start of China production is what has powered Tesla’s surprise performance in 2020. capacity in China to • Increased cost competitiveness and subsidies have enabled Tesla to cut the price of its Chinese-made Model 3, expand leading to volume growth and earnings improvement. • For the Model Y, production at Gigafactory Shanghai is expected to start in 2021; Tesla will likely offer competitive pricing to expand its market share (as it did with the Model 3). • Given that the Model Y and the Model 3 share 70% of their parts, expanded production should lead to a virtuous circle whereby scale effects lead to additional cost reductions, price cuts, and market share gains. • We forecast Tesla’s production capacity in China to expand more rapidly than the market is currently anticipating, reaching 250,000 units at end-2020 and double that level at end-2021. Tesla Model 3’s selling price in China Model 3 vs. Model Y (CNY'000) 500 Model 3 Model Y Standard Range Plus RWD Long Range AWD Purchase tax Subsidies for models made 400 in China Price cut Additional 300 Additional Segment Sedan SUV 250,000 488,000 Starting price (CNY) (including subsidies and 200 (likely to be lowered) tax benefits) Driving range (km, 430 505 WLTP) 100 0-60mph (s) 5.6 5.1 Battery capacity 54 75 (kWh) 0 Dimensions (mm) 4,694 x 1849 x 1443 4,751 x 1921 x 1624 2019.05 2019.08 2020.01 2020.04 2020.05 2020.09 Note: Including subsidies and tax benefits Source: Press reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Press reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 | [2021 Outlook] Global EVs Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. [2021 outlook] ① Tesla to tighten its grip on the market Gigafactory Berlin to • Gigafactory Berlin is scheduled to come online in Jul. 2021 and produce the Model Y. come online in mid-2021 • Gigafactory Berlin should be more cost-competitive than the Fremont factory, in light of: 1) tariff exemption in the eurozone (vs. a 10% tariff on imported cars from the US); 2) transportation cost reductions; and 3) fixed-cost savings. • Tesla plans to use Gigafactory Berlin as a testbed for new technologies. • The Model 3 offers more compelling features than other premium models in the same class, aided by Tesla’s dedicated platform, scale effects, and superior battery management system (BMS) technology. • The upcoming start-up of Gigafactory Berlin will help Tesla sharpen its competitive edge in European markets. Tesla Model 3 (long-range) vs. European premium EVs Automaker Tesla Mercedes-Benz Audi Volvo BMW Porsche Model 3 Model EQC e-tron 50 Polestar 2 iX3 Taycan 4S Long Range AWD Segment Sedan SUV Midsize Midsize SUV Luxury sedan Starting price 52.4 71.3 62.7 57.9 68.0 108.9 (EUR‘000) Driving range 560 417 341 470 460 335–408 (km, WLTP) 0-60mph (s) 4.6 5.1 6.8 4.7 6.8 4.0 Battery capacity 75 80 71 78 80 79.2 (kWh) Dimensions (mm) 4,694 x 1,849 x 1,443 4,761 x 1,884 x 1,623 4,901 x 1,935 x 1,632 4,606 x 1,479 x 1,985 4,734 x 1,891 x 1,668 4,963 x 1,966 x 1,379 Jan. 2020 (Apr. in the Release Jul. 2018 Jul. 2019 Jan. 2020 Jun. 2020 End-2020 US) 6 | [2021 Outlook] Global EVs Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. [2021 outlook] ① Tesla to tighten its grip on the market Texas factory and • Tesla's Texas factory is scheduled to come online in mid-2021 and produce the Cybertruck and the Model Y. Cybertruck • Despite its high price tag, the Cybertruck should generate strong demand thanks to its compelling features and better fuel economy than conventional vehicle models (F-150 annual fuel cost: US$1,400-1,500). Cybertruck pre- orders have already exceeded 600,000. • With the Cybertruck, Tesla is poised to extend its grip beyond the sedan/SUV segments into the pickup segment. Tesla Cybertruck vs. comparable conventional vehicle models (F-150/F-250) Tesla Cybertruck Ford F-Series Model Dual Motor AWD Tri Motor AWD F-150 F-250 Starting price (US$) 49,900 69,900 28,745–71,160 34,035–84,130 Traction force (lbs) 10,000 14,000 6,000~12,000 12,600~ 0-60mph (s) < 4.5 < 2.9 6.2 7.2 Driving range (km) 480 800~ - - Release End-2021 End-2021 - - Source: Press reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7 | [2021 Outlook] Global EVs Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. [2021 outlook] ① Tesla to tighten its grip on the market Battery production and • Tesla plans to produce 100GWh of its own battery cells by 2022. A pilot production line (annual capacity of 10GWh) costs at the Fremont factory will be completed by end-2020, and mass-production quality assessment is set for 1H21. • While it remains to be seen how pilot production will turn out, we think Tesla stands a good chance of achieving a bigger battery cell form factor. Indeed, larger-form-factor cells are already being developed by existing battery makers, and Tesla has competitive advantages such as superior BMS and automation technology, strong financing and execution abilities, and scale. • Tesla’s battery road map has prompted battery cell companies to accelerate their R&D efforts. We believe Tesla can better position itself for success through partnerships with existing battery makers. • We expect Tesla to accelerate battery cost reductions through in-house production and/or partnerships with existing battery makers. Tesla’s road map to cutting battery costs in half Panasonic working with Tesla on 4680 battery cell production Source: Tesla, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Maeil Business Newspaper, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 8 | [2021 Outlook] Global EVs Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. [2021 outlook] ① Tesla to tighten its grip on the market Tesla’s software • Tesla’s competitive software sets it apart from conventional OEMs. competitiveness to • Tesla vehicles regularly receive over-the-air software updates that improve driving performance. increase • Autonomous driving features are popular with consumers, and Tesla has recently increased their prices. • Tesla’s latest full self-driving (FSD) beta represents a significant step toward complete autonomy. Looking to 2021, we expect Tesla to enhance its competitiveness on the back of accumulated data, chip upgrades, and the massive computing power of the Dojo computer. Software updates to increase Model S’s driving range Tesla’s FSD features and price (km) (US$) 700 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 600 7,000 6,000 5,000 500 4,000 2019 2/20 8/20 11/20 5/19 7/19 11/19 7/20 11/20 9 | [2021 Outlook] Global EVs Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. [2021 outlook] ② European OEMs to play catch-up Tesla has no equal in the • Amid expanded government subsidies, EV sales in Europe have increased sharply. That said, sales have been premium segment concentrated in the mass-market segment (e.g., Renault ZOE and Hyundai Kona).
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