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A NORMATIVE APPROACH TO DESIGNING FOR EVOLVABILITY: METHODS AND METRICS FOR CONSIDERING EVOLVABILITY IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING by Daniel O’Brien Fulcoly B.S. Physics and Mathematics United States Air Force Academy, 2010 Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Aeronautics and Astronautics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology June 2012 All rights reserved Signature of Author……………………………………………………………………………………………………... Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics May 23, 2012 Certified by……………………………………………………………………………………………………………... Donna H. Rhodes Principal Research Scientist and Senior Lecturer, Engineering Systems Director, Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative Thesis Supervisor Accepted by…………………………………...………………………………………………………………………… Adam M. Ross Research Scientist, Engineering Systems Lead Research Scientist, Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative Thesis Co-Advisor Accepted by…………………………………...………………………………………………………………………… Daniel E. Hastings Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Engineering Systems Thesis Reader Accepted by…………………………………...………………………………………………………………………… Eytan Modiano Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Chair, Committee on Graduate Students The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. 2 A NORMATIVE APPROACH TO DESIGNING FOR EVOLVABILITY: METHODS AND METRICS FOR CONSIDERING EVOLVABILITY IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING by Daniel O. Fulcoly Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics on May 24, 2012 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Aeronautics and Astronautics Abstract As engineering endeavors become larger, more complex, and more expensive, the advantages of evolvable design and redesign grow. Cost and complexity are not the only factors driving the need for evolvability; changes in requirements and context can also lead to the need for redesign. This research looks to characterize evolvability, propose design principles for evolvability, determine the conditions that make designing for evolvability appropriate, and in the case of preplanned generations, determine an appropriate generation length. Evolvability is defined in this research as “the ability of an architecture to be inherited and changed across generations [over time].” This definition is used as a basis for determining a metric for measuring evolvability. The Filtered Outdegree for Evolvability metric was determined to be the most appropriate metric for measuring evolvability. The Epoch Syncopation Framework (ESF) was developed as a way of analyzing point designs, change mechanisms, execution timing, and change strategies. The ESF provides the capability to determine the conditions that make evolvability an appropriate design consideration, as well as use the temporal nature of system changes to decide on an appropriate generation length if preplanned generations are to be utilized. The Expedited Tradespace Approximation Method (ETAM) was developed in response to the heavy reliance of filtered outdegree metric and ESF on tradespace networks. ETAM leverages intelligent subsampling and interpolation methods to generate acceptable data for a large tradespace, using less computational resources than applying a performance model to every design point would normally take. All three methods were applied to case studies to demonstrate their effectiveness. A list of evolvability design principles is proposed informed by literature and findings from case study applications. The contributions of this research will enable future considerations of evolvability in systems engineering. Thesis Supervisor: Donna H. Rhodes Title: Principal Research Scientist and Senior Lecturer, Engineering Systems Co-Advisor and Thesis Reader: Adam M. Ross Title: Research Scientist, Engineering Systems 3 4 Acknowledgements The support I received while pursuing this degree and writing this thesis was invaluable; I could not have done this alone. The first people I need to thank are my family. You all have been an amazing support group throughout the last 24 years (I guess only 19 of them for you, Matt). Dad, you made me who I am today. If it wasn’t for our time testing different woods in the garage as part of the second grade science fair, I don’t think I would be as interested in science as I am today. You were a great soccer coach and introduced me to the world of rugby which has become a huge part of my life (we even got to play together again while I was in Boston!). Mom, you always been there for me. I can remember many a school project where your help and ideas helped direct my sometimes scatterbrained thoughts into work I could be proud of! You have never failed to be an insightful resource when I have questions about literally everything or just want to vent. Matt, our brotherly bond has definitely kept me sane during some of the times here that make me want to go crazy. I’m proud of everything you have done (even if watching our golf score differential grow makes me pretty jealous). I’d like to thank all my academic mentors and teachers. Whether I was at Matthews, Schimelpfenig, Jasper, Plano Sr., USAFA, or MIT I always had the best to set me up for success. I especially want to thank Dr. Francis Chun at USAFA for showing me the ropes of research and helping me get to MIT. Thank you to SEAri not only for funding my research, but refining my skills as a researcher in a field I initially felt clueless in! To Dr. Donna Rhodes, you were a great help in showing me how to communicate my research both by the example you set and the mentoring you gave. To Dr. Adam Ross, thank you so much for the countless hours you put into helping me along this path. You were always patient and understanding while simultaneously making sure that I was doing research I could be proud of. Our weekly meetings were never boring, and the tangents we went off on sometimes spawned great new research threads (or occasionally just much-needed physicist talk!). Other fellow students were crucial to my success here as well. Matt Fitzgerald, thanks for being helpful when I was slow to pick up on some of the changeability code. Our games of Space Tug Skirmish (to ska background music, of course) were never dull. Nirav Shah, thank you for all the help you provided. You were the resident expert on everything from pottery to biology, and you used your wealth of knowledge to help me do better research (especially on ETAM!). Finally, I’d like to thank the friends I had here in Boston. Clark and Ben, the times we shared as roommates were amazing. From weeknight activities at Thorndike to Parish excursions to fabulous nights in Boston, we definitely created some great stories together. To the Boston Irish Wolfhounds, thank you for the great rugby experience. You made me feel right at home ever since my first practice, and it was an honor to wear the green and white with you guys all over the country! Last but not least, thank you to the great group of friends known only as the “Broman Empire.” You guys were amazing and made sure there was never a dull weekend. Without the great weekends we shared, my sanity would sure not be intact. 5 6 Biographical Note Daniel Fulcoly holds Bachelor of Science degrees in Mathematics and Physics from the United States Air Force Academy, where he was a distinguished graduate of the Class of 2010. He will graduate from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in June of 2012 with a Master of Science in Aeronautics and Astronautics. During his time at MIT, he was a research assistant in the Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative (SEAri). Dan was born and raised in Plano, TX, a large suburb north of Dallas. His love for science began in elementary school when he participated in many science fairs and discovered how much there was to learn and how exciting it could be. Another outlet he enjoyed was sports; Dan was an avid soccer, football, and rugby player. Dan was first introduced to service through participation in the Boy Scouts of America. His appreciation for service, along with a never dying desire to become an astronaut, led to Dan joining the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) in the summer of 2006. At USAFA, Dan strove to excel in all facets of cadet life. He played for the USAFA rugby team all four years, a team that twice advanced to the sweet 16 at the highest level of college rugby in the USA. He served in many military positions, culminating in commanding a squadron of over 140 cadets and basic cadets during basic cadet training. In the academic realm, Dan pursued two technical majors while broadening his non-technical education through the Academy Scholars Program. Research was a significant aspect of Dan’s time at USAFA. He began researching in the fields of Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Non-Resolvable Space Object Identification in the spring of 2009. Over the next year and a half, he presented his research at two conferences, two workshops, and eventually published his work in a peer-reviewed journal. His research not only earned him many distinctions and awards at USAFA, but played a critical role in setting him up for success as a researcher at MIT. After graduation from MIT, Dan will serve as a physicist in the United States Air Force at Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico, where he hopes to return to

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