The Commodity Spectrum
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
The Economics of Commodity Market Manipulation: a Survey
The Economics of Commodity Market Manipulation: A Survey Craig Pirrong Bauer College of Business University of Houston February 11, 2017 1 Introduction The subject of market manipulation has bedeviled commodity markets since the dawn of futures trading. Allegations of manipulation have been extremely commonplace, but just what constitutes manipulation, and how charges of manipulation can be proven, have been the subject of intense controversy. The remark of a waggish cotton trader in testimony before a Senate Com- mittee in this regard is revealing: “the word manipulation . initsuse isso broad as to include any operation of the cotton market that does not suit the gentleman who is speaking at the moment.” The Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals echoed this sentiment, though less mordantly, in its decision in the case Cargill v. Hardin: “The methods and techniques of manipulation are limited only by the ingenuity of man.” Concerns about manipulation have driven the regulation of commodity markets: starting with the Grain Fu- tures Act of 1922, United States law has proscribed manipulation, including 1 specifically “corners” and “squeezes.” Exchanges have an affirmative duty to police manipulation, and in the United States, the Commodity Futures Trad- ing Commission and the Department of Justice can, and have exercised, the power to prosecute alleged manipulators. Nonetheless, manipulation does occur. In recent years, there have been allegations that manipulations have occurred in, inter alia, soybeans (1989), copper (1995), gold (2004-2014) nat- ural gas (2006), silver (1998, 2007-2014), refined petroleum products (2008), cocoa (2010), and cotton (2011). Manipulation is therefore both a very old problem, and a continuing one. -
The Proletariat
The Proletariat • What defines the proletariat? (Manifesto, 8a) o Wage laborers Because they must “sell themselves piecemeal,” (rent themselves out by the day or hour) they are a commodity As a commodity, exposed to all the fluctuations of the market o The commodification of the wage laborer in Marx’s economics The labour theory of value • Use value vs. exchange value • The exchange value of a product or commodity = the quantity of average human labor incorporated into the product or commodity The theory of surplus value • Profit comes from buying and selling labor –buying labor with wages, selling the labor incorporated into commodities • Proletarians live only as their labor increases capital o Capital = wealth devoted to production of wealth o Because of the need to constantly revolutionize the instruments of production, a good portion of the “profit” generated must converted back to capital o The lives wage laborers tied to systemic needs for increased capital 19-1 Alienation • To be alienated is to be “othered” – to be separated or estranged from oneself • Early attempt to explain the fundamental features of bourgeois economic reality as rooted in the alienation of the worker (“Estranged Labor” in the 1844 manuscripts) • Work in general is simply a process in which a human incorporates his or her ideas into matter o It is the distinctively human activity of self-expression • Under capitalism, work becomes not self-expression, but something that separates the workers from themselves and their humanity • There are four interconnected -
Price Discovery in the Futures and Cash Market for Sugar
University of Wisconsin-Madison Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics March 2005 Staff Paper No. 469 Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Cash Markets: Implications for the Dominican Republic By Hector Zapata T. Randall Fortenbery Delroy Armstrong __________________________________ AGRICULTURAL & APPLIED ECONOMICS ____________________________ STAFF PAPER SERIES Copyright © 2005 Hector Zapata, T. Randall Fortenbery and Delroy Armstrong. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Cash Markets: Implications for the Dominican Republic by Hector O Zapata Department of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness Louisiana State University Baton Rouge, Louisiana Phone: (225) 578-2766 Fax: (225) 578-2716 e-mail: [email protected] T. Randall Fortenbery Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wisconsin – Madison Madison, Wisconsin Phone: (608) 262-4908 Fax: (608) 262-4376 e-mail: [email protected] Delroy Armstrong Department of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness Louisiana State University Baton Rouge, Louisiana Phone: (225) 578-2757 Fax: (225) 578-2716 e-mail: [email protected] ___________ 1Hector Zapata and D. Armstrong are Professor and research assistant, respectively, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Dr. T Randall Fortenbery is the Renk Professor of Agribusiness, at the Department of Agriculture and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin. Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Dominican Republic Cash Market Abstract This paper examines the relationship between #11 sugar futures prices traded in New York and the world cash prices for exported sugar. -
A Crisis of Commitment: Socialist Internationalism in British Columbia During the Great War
A Crisis of Commitment: Socialist Internationalism in British Columbia during the Great War by Dale Michael McCartney B.A., Simon Fraser University, 2004 THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS In the Department of History © Dale Michael McCartney 2010 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Spring 2010 All rights reserved. However, in accordance with the Copyright Act of Canada, this work may be reproduced, without authorization, under the conditions for Fair Dealing. Therefore, limited reproduction of this work for the purposes of private study, research, criticism, review and news reporting is likely to be in accordance with the law, particularly if cited appropriately. APPROVAL Name: Dale Michael McCartney Degree: Master of Arts Title of Thesis: A Crisis of Commitment: Socialist Internationalism in British Columbia during the Great War Examining Committee: Chair: Dr. Emily O‘Brien Assistant Professor of History _____________________________________________ Dr. Mark Leier Senior Supervisor Professor of History _____________________________________________ Dr. Karen Ferguson Supervisor Associate Professor of History _____________________________________________ Dr. Robert A.J. McDonald External Examiner Professor of History University of British Columbia Date Defended/Approved: ________4 March 2010___________________________ ii Declaration of Partial Copyright Licence The author, whose copyright is declared on the title page of this work, has granted to Simon Fraser University the right to lend this thesis, project or extended essay to users of the Simon Fraser University Library, and to make partial or single copies only for such users or in response to a request from the library of any other university, or other educational institution, on its own behalf or for one of its users. -
The Emergence of the Law of Value in a Dynamic Simple Commodity Economy
Review of Political Economy, Volume 20, Number 3, 367–391, July 2008 The Emergence of the Law of Value in a Dynamic Simple Commodity Economy IAN WRIGHT Faculty of Social Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK ABSTRACT A dynamic computational model of a simple commodity economy is examined and a theory of the relationship between commodity values, market prices and the efficient division of social labour is developed. The main conclusions are: (i) the labour value of a commodity is an attractor for its market price; (ii) market prices are error signals that function to allocate the available social labour between sectors of production; and (iii) the tendency of prices to approach labour values is the monetary expression of the tendency of a simple commodity economy to allocate social labour efficiently. The model demonstrates that, in the special case of simple commodity production, Marx’s law of value can naturally emerge from multiple local exchanges and operate ‘behind the backs’ of actors solely via money flows that place budget constraints on their local evaluations of commodity prices, which are otherwise subjective and unconstrained. 1. Introduction Marx, following Ricardo, held a labour theory of the economic value of reprodu- cible commodities. The value of a commodity is determined by the prevailing technical conditions of production and measured by the socially necessary labour-time required to produce it (Marx, 1867). The value of a commodity is to be distinguished from its price, which is the amount of money it fetches in the market. According to Marx, although individual economic actors may differ in their subjective evaluations of the worth or ‘value’ of commodities, market prices are nevertheless determined by labour values due to the operation of the ‘law of value’, an objective economic law that emerges as an unintended consequence of local and distributed market exchanges. -
Working Paper No. 222
Money and Taxes: The Chartalist L. Randall Wray” Working Paper No. 222 January 1998 *Senior Scholar, The Jerome Levy Economics Institute L. Rnndull Wray Introductory Quotes “A requirement that certain taxes should be paid in particular paper money might give that paper a certain value even if it was irredeemable.” (Edwin Cannan, Marginal Summary to page 3 12 of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, in Smith 1937: 3 12) “[T]he money of a State is not what is of compulsory general acceptance, but what is accepted at the public pay offices...” (Knapp 1924: vii) “Money is the creation of the state; it is not true to say that gold is international currency, for international contracts are never made in terms of gold, but always in terms of some national monetary unit; there is no important distinction between notes and metallic money.... ” Keynes (Keynes 1983: 402) “In an economy where government debt is a major asset on the books of the deposit- issuing banks, the fact that taxes need to be paid gives value to the money of the economy. The virtue of a balanced budget and a surplus insofar as the commodity value (purchasing power) of money is concerned is that the need to pay taxes means that people work and produce in order to get that in which taxes can be paid.” (Minsky 1986: 23 1) *****k*************X*********************~***********~****** Introduction In conventional analysis, money is used to facilitate exchange; its value was long determined by the value of the precious metal it represented, although under a fiat money system, its value is determined by the quantity of commodities it can purchase. -
Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20 Volume Author/Editor: Takatoshi Ito and Andrew K. Rose, editors Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-38689-9 ISBN13: 978-0-226-38689-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/ito_09-1 Conference Date: June 26-27, 2009 Publication Date: February 2011 Chapter Title: The Relationship between Commodity Prices and Currency Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Futures Markets Chapter Authors: Kalok Chan, Yiuman Tse, Michael Williams Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11859 Chapter pages in book: (47 - 71) 2 The Relationship between Commodity Prices and Currency Exchange Rates Evidence from the Futures Markets Kalok Chan, Yiuman Tse, and Michael Williams 2.1 Introduction We examine relationships among currency and commodity futures markets based on four commodity- exporting countries’ currency futures returns and a range of index- based commodity futures returns. These four commodity- linked currencies are the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and South African rand. We fi nd that commodity/currency relation- ships exist contemporaneously, but fail to exhibit Granger- causality in either direction. We attribute our results to the informational efficiency of futures markets. That is, information is incorporated into the commodity and cur- rency futures prices rapidly and simultaneously on a daily basis. There are a few studies on the relationship between currency and com- modity prices. A recent study by Chen, Rogoff, and Rossi (2008) using quar- terly data fi nds that currency exchange rates of commodity- exporting coun- tries have strong forecasting ability for the spot prices of the commodities they export. -
Commodity Dependence and International Commodity Prices
commoDity DEpEndencE anD intErnational 2 commoDity pricEs Since low-income coutries depend mostly on just a few commodities for the bulk share of their export earnings, commodity price fluctuations directly affect the incidence of poverty, as the vast majority of the poor depend on primary commodities for their livelihoods. Photo: Martine Perret/UN Timor-Leste MartinePhoto: Perret/UN Commodity Dependence and International Commodity Prices Introduction The types of commodities exported by a country are another important determinant of a country’s vulnerability to exogenous economic shocks. The majority of developing countries are dependent on primary commodities1 for export revenues and, of the 141 developing countries, 95 depend on primary commodities for at least 50 percent of their export earnings (Brown 2008). However, international commodity prices are notoriously volatile in the short to medium term, sometimes varying by as much as 50 percent in a single year (South Centre 2005). Moreover, price volatility is increasing over time and across a broad range of commodities. “In the past 30 years, there have been as many price shocks across the range of commodities as there were in the preceding 75 years” (Brown 2008). From the perspective of developing countries, especially those whose principal means of foreign exchange earnings come from Over the longer term, dependence the exports of primary commodities, unstable commodity prices on primary commodities heightens create macro-economic instabilities and complicate macro- a country’s vulnerability because economic management. Erratic price movements generate erratic movements in export revenue, cause instability in foreign exchange (non-oil) primary commodity prices reserves and are strongly associated with growth volatility. -
Cointegration Analysis of the World's Sugar Market
Economics COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF THE WORLD’S SUGAR MARKET: THE EXISTENCE OF THE LONG-TERM EQUILIBRIUM Elena Kuzmenko1, Luboš Smutka2, Wadim Strielkowski3, Justas Štreimikis4, Dalia Štreimikienė5 1 Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Czech Republic, ORCID: 0000-0002-2091-4630, [email protected]; 2 Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Czech Republic, ORCID: 0000-0001-5385-1333, [email protected]; 3 Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Czech Republic, ORCID: 0000-0001-6113-3841, [email protected]; 4 University of Economics and Human Science in Warsaw, Faculty of Management and Finances, Finance and Accounting Department, Poland, ORCID: 0000-0003-2619-3229, [email protected]; 5 Vilnius University, Kaunas Faculty, Institute of Social Sciences and Applied Informatics, Lithuania, ORCID: 0000-0002-3247-9912, [email protected] (corresponding author). Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of interconnection among major sugar markets and commodity/exchange stocks in different parts of the world using the Johansen cointegration approach and vector error correction model. Due to a high degree of sugar market fragmentation and corresponding diversity in price levels and its volatility in different regions, the results of our analysis sheds some light on the very fact of a ‘single’ global sugar market existence and can be important not just with regard to producers and buyers of sugar but for the international investors as well, both in the light of risk governance and maximizing profitability. Using the evaluation of the extent of connection among regional sugar markets, one can assess potential benefits available to investors through international diversification between the analyzed markets. -
Performance Prediction of Commodity Prices Using Foreign Exchange Futures Yisa Ajao, Ph.D
Performance Prediction of Commodity Prices Using Foreign Exchange Futures Yisa Ajao, Ph.D. Abstract Relevant Literature Procedures Conclusions In an experimental quantitative research design, data Origins of Dow Jones Financial Markets Historical data were downloaded from the websites of This study demonstrated that historical records from from the Futures Market for commodities and foreign Predictions the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Forex futures can be paired with matching records exchange futures covering 1986-2011 were obtained The theories developed by Fibonacci (1175-1250), and Wikiposit Historical Futures Data. from wheat (or any commodity) futures and obtain a and addressed. A General Regression Neural Network Dow (1851-1902), Elliot (1871-1948), and Gann prediction of market prices to within a 4.42% error was overlaid on this data to deduce a time-series (1878-1955) are essentially the backbones to the The data included daily commodity closing prices in margin. prediction model for wheat prices. Performance study of the movements of financial markets (Frost & the futures market for each trading day from 1985 prediction error was only 4.42%. Prechter, 2005; Schlanger, 2009) through 2011. From these data bank, specific data for The public, traders, investors, and analysts can wheat and US $1 Treasury Note were extracted for include this method as a new tool in the arsenal in the Forecasting Commodity Prices and Comments data mining purposes. ongoing search for a more reliable commodity futures Questions regarding forecast accuracy and financial predictions. markets eventually became a substantive topic of retrospective studies exemplified by Data Analysis This method can serve as confirmation of the results of Problem Hansen and Hodrick (1980), Turnovsky (1983), Fama other analytic and fundamental methods of obtaining (1984), Hodrick and Srivastava (1986), (Choe, 1990a), The Runs test was used to validate data randomness. -
Karl Polanyi's Critique
Author: Block • Filename: POMF-CH.4 LHP: THE POWER OF MARKET FUNDAMENTALISM RHP: TURNING THE TABLES Words: 6,291 / Chars: 40,895 • 1 • Printed: 06/18/14 8:39 PM Author: Block • Filename: POMF-CH.4 4 Turning the Tables Polanyi’s Critique of Free Market Utopianism In The Rhetoric of Reaction, Albert Hirschman (1991), identifies three distinct “rhetorics” that conservatives have used to discredit reform movements since the French Revolution. Chapter 6 of this volume is devoted to the “rhetoric of perversity”—the claim that a reform will have exactly the opposite of its intended effects and will hurt the intended beneficiaries. The second, “the rhetoric of jeopardy” is exemplified by Friedrich Hayek’s The Road to Serfdom (2007 [1944]); it is the claim that a reform will erode the freedoms we depend on. Hirschman’s third is the “rhetoric of futility”—the insistence that a reform is literally impossible because it goes against everything that we know is natural about human beings and social arrangements. This is the ploy that Malthus used in his Essay on the Principle of Population (1992 [1798]) to challenge the egalitarian ideas of William Godwin. Malthus professed to admire the beauty of Godwin’s vision, but he ultimately dismissed the vision as impossible. It was futile because Malthus declared it to be against the laws of nature—in other words, utopian. The rhetoric of futility is the main weapon that conservative intellectuals have wielded against socialists and communists for more than two centuries. They contend that an egalitarian social order would destroy any incentives for effort and creativity, which makes it utterly inconsistent with human nature. -
Money As 'Universal Equivalent' and Its Origins in Commodity Exchange
MONEY AS ‘UNIVERSAL EQUIVALENT’ AND ITS ORIGIN IN COMMODITY EXCHANGE COSTAS LAPAVITSAS DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS SCHOOL OF ORIENTAL AND AFRICAN STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF LONDON [email protected] MAY 2003 1 1.Introduction The debate between Zelizer (2000) and Fine and Lapavitsas (2000) in the pages of Economy and Society refers to the conceptualisation of money. Zelizer rejects the theorising of money by neoclassical economics (and some sociology), and claims that the concept of ‘money in general’ is invalid. Fine and Lapavitsas also criticise the neoclassical treatment of money but argue, from a Marxist perspective, that ‘money in general’ remains essential for social science. Intervening, Ingham (2001) finds both sides confused and in need of ‘untangling’. It is worth stressing that, despite appearing to be equally critical of both sides, Ingham (2001: 305) ‘strongly agrees’ with Fine and Lapavitsas on the main issue in contention, and defends the importance of a theory of ‘money in general’. However, he sharply criticises Fine and Lapavitsas for drawing on Marx’s work, which he considers incapable of supporting a theory of ‘money in general’. Complicating things further, Ingham (2001: 305) also declares himself ‘at odds with Fine and Lapavitsas’s interpretation of Marx’s conception of money’. For Ingham, in short, Fine and Lapavitsas are right to stress the importance of ‘money in general’ but wrong to rely on Marx, whom they misinterpret to boot. Responding to these charges is awkward since, on the one hand, Ingham concurs with the main thrust of Fine and Lapavitsas and, on the other, there is little to be gained from contesting what Marx ‘really said’ on the issue of money.