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Spatiotemporal Modelling for Integrated Spatial and Energy Planning Luis Ramirez Camargo1 and Gernot Stoeglehner2*

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Spatiotemporal Modelling for Integrated Spatial and Energy Planning Luis Ramirez Camargo1 and Gernot Stoeglehner2* Ramirez Camargo and Stoeglehner Energy, Sustainability and Society (2018) 8:32 Energy, Sustainability https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-018-0174-z and Society REVIEW Open Access Spatiotemporal modelling for integrated spatial and energy planning Luis Ramirez Camargo1 and Gernot Stoeglehner2* Abstract The transformation of the energy system to a renewable one is crucial to enable sustainable development for mankind. The integration of high shares of renewable energy sources (RES) in the energy matrix is, however, a major challenge due to the low energy density per area unit and the stochastic temporal patterns in which RES are available. Distributed generation for energy supply becomes necessary to overcome this challenge, but it sets new pressures on the use of space. To optimize the use of space, spatial planning and energy planning have to be integrated, and suitable tools to support this integrated planning process are fundamental. Spatiotemporal modelling of RES is an emerging research field that aims at supporting and improving the planning process of energy systems with high shares of RES. This paper contributes to this field by reviewing latest developments and proposing models and tools for planning distributed energy systems for municipalities. The models provide estimations of the potentials of fluctuating RES technologies and energy demand in high spatiotemporal resolutions, and the planning tools serve to configure energy systems of multiple technologies that are customized for the local energy demand. Case studies that test the spatiotemporal models and their transferability were evaluated to determine the advantages of using these instead of merely spatial models for planning municipality-wide RES-based energy systems. Spatiotemporal models allow a more detailed estimation of RES potentials and serve to find not only optimal locations but also optimal sizes for individual RES plants. While the potential of variable RES based on yearly energy generation values can be considerably larger than the energy demand, only a fraction of it can be deployed without compromising the quality and reliability of the local energy supply system. Furthermore, when spatiotemporal models are used, it can be seen that technological diversity is beneficial for the supply quality. Similarly, the advantages and limits of the deployment of storage systems and of combinations of RES-based technologies to cover the local demand were determined and evaluated. Finally, the results from the analyses provide sufficient information to define road maps of installations deployment to achieve desired RES penetration objectives. Keywords: Spatiotemporal modelling, Integrated spatial and energy planning, Renewable energies, Open source GIS, Virtual power plants Background adoption initiatives of these countries present significant The transformation of the energy system has become a and continuous progress. However, the medium- and global affair that is already generating important eco- long-term objectives of high levels of RES [1] can only nomical, societal and technical changes. Countries be achieved if there is a transformation from the current worldwide are setting ambitious goals to replace their centralized energy generation paradigm towards distrib- fossil-based energy matrix by a renewable one. Several of uted generation [2–4]. Such a structural transformation the renewable energy sources (RES) promotion and has started to take place in countries such as Germany where the actual installed RES capacity is distributed in * Correspondence: [email protected] around 1.5 million installations [5]. This figure contrasts 2Institute of Spatial Planning, Environmental Planning and Land Rearrangement, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, with the 730 operational conventional power plants with Peter-Jordan-Strasse 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria nominal capacities above 10 MW that are responsible Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2018 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. Ramirez Camargo and Stoeglehner Energy, Sustainability and Society (2018) 8:32 Page 2 of 29 for supplying the largest part of the country’s electricity RES-based energy generation plants to supply a desired demand [6]. demand in a reliable manner [4]) or the assessment of Consequently, the decentralization of the energy sys- economic promotion mechanisms for RES, which de- tem sets new pressures on the use of space and on ad- pend on the match between supply and demand, cannot ministrative units such as districts and municipalities. be supported with mere GIS-based spatial models. Space becomes a precious object not only for food Therefore, the full integration of the temporal compo- provision, for environmental services and for residential, nent in existing GIS-based analyses is a necessary fur- commercial, industrial and transport uses but also for ther step [19]. the energy supply infrastructure [7]. Moreover, the deci- In this paper, we review GIS-based spatial and spatio- sions about infrastructure no longer concern isolated in- temporal models and methods for the estimation of RES stallations that are as distant as possible to human potentials as well as for the determination of energy de- settlements, but new infrastructure is to be installed dir- mand. Based on this review, we present a methodology ectly in buildings and close to populated areas. The that integrates GIS-based RES potential assessment pro- decentralization of the energy system therefore entails a cedures with models for the estimation of energy gener- radical transformation of cityscapes and landscapes [8]. ation and consumption profiles in a high temporal In order to overcome the issues with space usage and to resolution. This new method should overcome deficien- accomplish acceptance and understanding from society cies identified in previous approaches and contribute to to implement the necessary changes, relatively small ad- decision making in integrated spatial and energy plan- ministrative units such as districts and municipalities ning at the municipal scale. The research was carried have to take an active role in the design of the new en- out in the Doctoral project “Spatiotemporal modelling ergy system [9, 10]. Furthermore, since the technical for renewable distributed energy generation planning for solution cannot be separated from economic, environ- municipalities” and represents the framework thesis of mental, social, political and spatial concerns [11], the the cumulative dissertation. conception of a decentralized RES-based energy system This document is structured as follows: derived from requires the coupling of spatial and energy planning [8]. an analysis of the state of the art of spatial and spatio- Geographic information systems (GIS) have shown to temporal modelling for planning renewable energy sys- be valuable tools to support both energy and spatial tems in the “Theory framing and state of the art” planning, but these must be further developed in order section, a new spatiotemporal modelling and analysis ap- to assist the conception of a RES-based energy system. proach is presented in the “Methodology” section. The GIS have become indispensable to assess RES potentials results of multiple case studies as well as the strengths and local impacts [12], as well as to evaluate RES adop- and weaknesses of the presented methodology are dis- tion by considering technical, environmental, social, eco- cussed in the “Results and discussion” section, and the nomic and political criteria [13]. GIS-based studies and “Conclusions” section draws conclusions. tools for the assessment of solar, wind, biomass, wave and geothermal energy potentials in a multitude of loca- Theory framing and state of the art tions around the world populate RES-related scientific Decision making for the energy transition literature of the last decade [12–14]. However, the con- In consonance with Fürst and Scholles [20], decision sideration of the local energy demand, the constraints making in planning processes means connecting the fac- given by the grid and the spatially explicit examination tual and the value level, which is according to Scharpf of the temporal variability of RES, such as wind and [21] influenced by power relations and actor constella- solar energy, are only starting to appear in the current tions. Furthermore, decision making concerning the en- research agenda dealing with the conception of energy ergy transition impacts all levels of government and has systems for municipalities. These aspects are vital if the to lead to a consistent action of private households and intention is to conceive energy systems that ensure reli- enterprises. As Stoeglehner and Narodoslawsky [22] able supply and economic feasibility. point out, planning for the energy transition is inspired The integration of high shares of technologies such as by climate protection objectives of global environmental photovoltaics and wind turbines in the energy matrix is policy; is transferred into environmental policies, energy a challenge. Inappropriate planning for the integration policies, and economic
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