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The BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING and SOCIETY Fall 2020 The BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY 50th ANNIVERSARY ISSUE 2020 The BRIDGE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING Donald C. Winter, Chair John L. Anderson, President Corale L. Brierley, Vice President Carol K. Hall, Home Secretary James M. Tien, International Secretary Martin B. Sherwin, Treasurer Editor in Chief: Ronald M. Latanision Managing Editor: Cameron H. Fletcher Production Associate: Penelope Gibbs The Bridge (ISSN 0737-6278) is published quarterly by the National Acad emy of Engineering, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20418. Periodicals postage paid at Washington, DC. Vol. 50, No. S, Winter 2020 Postmaster: Send address changes to The Bridge, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20418. Changes of address or requests to unsubscribe should be sent to [email protected]. Papers are presented in The Bridge on the basis of general interest and timeliness. They reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily the position of the National Academy of Engineering. The Bridge is printed on recycled paper. C © 2020 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Mission Statement of The Bridge The Bridge publishes articles on engineering research, education, and practice; science and technology pol- icy; and the interface between engineering and technology and society. The intent is to stimulate debate and dialogue both among members of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) and in the broader community of policymakers, educators, business leaders, and other interested individuals. The Bridge relies on its editor in chief, NAE members, and staff to identify potential issue topics and guest editors. Invited guest editors, who have expertise in a given issue’s theme, are asked to select authors and topics, and inde- pendent experts are enlisted to assess articles for publication. The quarterly has a distribution of about 7,000 including NAE members, members of Congress, libraries, universities, and interested individuals all over the country and the world. Issues are freely accessible at www.nae.edu/Publications/Bridge.aspx. A complete copy of The Bridge is available in PDF format at www.nae.edu/TheBridge. Some of the articles in this issue are also available as HTML documents and may contain links to related sources of information, multimedia files, or other content. The Volume 50, Number S • 2020 BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY Editors’ Note 4 Bridges to the Future Ronald M. Latanision and Cameron H. Fletcher Foreword 5 A Special 50th Anniversary Issue Asad M. Madni and Ming Hsieh President’s Perspective 6 Unintended Consequences John L. Anderson Features 8 Keynote: Temptations of Technocracy in the Century of Engineering Sheila Jasanoff 11 Healthy Buildings in 2070 Joseph G. Allen and John D. Macomber 15 Bringing Space Down to Earth Norman R. Augustine 18 What Are We Waiting For? Lessons from Covid-19 about Climate Change Sally M. Benson 21 Imperatives for the Web: Broad Societal Needs Judy Brewer and Jeffrey M. Jaffe 24 The Future of Artificial Intelligence Rodney A. Brooks 27 Organizing Academic Engineering for Leading in an 27Entangled World Robert A. Brown and Kenneth Lutchen 30 Empowering Future Engineers with Ethical Thinking Tom H. Byers and Tina L. Seelig 33 Imagining the Future of Vaccine Development Arup K. Chakraborty and Bernhardt L. Trout 36 Innovation Campuses: Graduate Education Spurring 82 Engineering Interventions to Reduce Plastic in the Talent and the Tech Economy Environment Lance R. Collins Jenna R. Jambeck 39 Virtual Reality 2070: Vision and Challenges 84 Precision Medicine in Cardiology through Research, Carolina Cruz-Neira Innovation, and Intellectual Property Ik-Kyung Jang, Monica S. Jang, and Ronald M. 42 Strengthen Innovation and Inclusion by Bringing Latanision Opportunity to Talent Nicholas M. Donofrio 88 Accelerating Innovation in the Water Sector to Meet Future Demands 44 Circular Fashion 2070: Clothing and Textile Cycles, Kimberly L. Jones Systems, and Services Rebecca Earley 91 Artificial Intelligence: From Ancient Greeks to Self-Driving Cars and Beyond 48 Projected Applications of the Laser in the 21st Achuta Kadambi and Asad M. Madni Century J. Gary Eden 94 The Role of Technical Standards in Enabling the Future 52 Nuclear Salvation Ken Krechmer Kerry A. Emanuel 98 Accelerating Growth of Solar Energy 55 Applying Engineering Systems Thinking to Benefit Sarah R. Kurtz Public Policy Maryann P. Feldman and Paige A. Clayton 102 Digital Manufacturing: Breaking the Mold Rush LaSelle 58 Engineering and the Elixir of Life Samuel C. Florman 105 Inventing the Future Robert W. Lucky 60 Engineering Financial Markets? Richard N. Foster 107 A New Categorical Imperative Daniel Metlay 64 The Future of Quantum Computing Research Sara J. Gamble 110 Future of Weather Forecasting Joel N. Myers 67 The Future of Voting Juan E. Gilbert 113 Inclusive Human-Centered Machine Intelligence Shrikanth Narayanan and Asad M. Madni 70 Consciousness and Convergence: Physics of Life at the Nanoscale 117 Reimagining Government and Markets Anita Goel Tim O’Reilly 73 Expanding Engagement in STEM 121 Confronting the Societal Implications of AI Systems: Latonia M. Harris Leading Questions Lisa A. Parks 76 Incorporating the Arts to Create Technical Leaders of the Future 124 Moving Toward 20/20 Foresight Linda A. Hill Kristala L.J. Prather 79 Peace Engineering 127 Lessons Future Technologies Should Heed from the Joseph B. Hughes and Philip Breedlove Past Ainissa Ramirez 130 Living, Sensing, Learning: Next Generation Bioinspired Building Materials Jenny E. Sabin 134 Entering the Solar Era: The Next 50 Years of Energy Generation Rebecca Saive 138 Catalysis and the Future of Transportation Fuels José G. Santiesteban and Thomas F. Degnan Jr. 141 Understanding Uncertainty, Context, and Human Cognition: Necessary Conditions for Safe Autonomy Srikanth Saripalli and James E. Hubbard Jr. 144 Space Launch in 50 Years: Abundance at Last? Gwynne E. Shotwell and Lars Blackmore 147 Predicted Advances in the Design of New Materials Susan B. Sinnott and Zi-Kui Liu 150 The Role of Engineering and Technology in Agriculture Michael A. Steinwand and Pamela C. Ronald 154 Beyond Engineering for Sustainable Global Development Kentaro Toyama 157 Building the Nexus Between Electronics and the Human Body for Enhanced Health Sihong Wang 161 Desalination Innovations Needed to Ensure Clean Water for the Next 50 Years David M. Warsinger 164 Future Directions for Cybersecurity Policy Josephine Wolff The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an emy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongov- Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to ernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objec- The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 tive analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected Academies also encourage education and research, recognize out- by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John standing contributions to knowledge, and increase public understand- L. Anderson is president. ing in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Acad- and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. Editors’ Note Bridges to the Future Ronald M. Latanision (NAE) is a senior fellow at Exponent. Cameron H. Fletcher is managing editor of The Bridge. Ronald Latanision Cameron Fletcher We are delighted to celebrate the 50th year of publica- ties, and challenges in engineering “writ large”—from tion of the NAE’s flagship quarterly with this special space exploration, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, issue featuring 50 essays looking forward to the next plastics, and quantum computing to fashion, finance, 50 years of innovation in engineering. equity, and peace. Topics also include a number of the From its early days as a 4-page member newsletter, The NAE’s 14 Grand Challenges for Engineering, such as Bridge has evolved to a thematic quarterly with a distri- efforts to engineer the tools of scientific discovery, make bution of some 7000 individuals around the country and solar energy economical, develop carbon sequestration the world. Focus areas are suggested by both members methods, and provide access to clean water, among and nonmembers, and guest editors for each issue line others. In the absence of an organiz ing theme, the up topics and experts to provide effective coverage of the papers are presented in alphabetical order by author. selected subject. In addition, when possible we accom- At times innovations have yielded unintended con- modate unsolicited submissions, which lately have come sequences, and we are very pleased that NAE president from engineering students, a welcome voice in our pages. John Anderson addresses
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